Yverdon Sport 2-1 Stade Lausanne-Ouchy – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Stade Lausanne-Ouchy at 38%, yet other data sources diverge — this Yverdon Sport vs Stade Lausanne-Ouchy fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Stade Municipal plays host to Yverdon Sport versus Stade Lausanne-Ouchy in Super League, Regular Season - 17. Kick-off: Sunday 10 December 2023 at 15:30 UTC.
Form & Momentum
Yverdon Sport have collected 0.90 PPG across 10 Super League outings this season: 2W 3D 5L. Last five: D L D L L. They are averaging 1.00 goals per game and conceding 2.20 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. However, 2.20 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Yverdon Sport, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Yverdon Sport at Stade Municipal this season: 3W 3D 2L from 8 home games — 1.50 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.62 goals scored and 2.00 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 62% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture. Their home PPG of 1.50 is noticeably stronger than their overall 0.90 — Yverdon Sport are significantly better at Stade Municipal than their overall form suggests.
Stade Lausanne-Ouchy's overall Super League record this term: 1W 4D 5L from 10 games (0.70 PPG). Last five: L L L D L. Their scoring rate of 1.20 per game is modest, conceding 2.10 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Conceding 2.10 per game is a high rate — their defensive vulnerabilities have been exposed regularly this season. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Stade Lausanne-Ouchy, so this record blends games from this season and last.
When travelling in Super League this season, Stade Lausanne-Ouchy have posted 2W 1D 6L from 9 away outings — 0.78 PPG. Away from home they average 1.11 goals scored and 1.78 conceded per game.
Both sides are running at similar form levels — 0.90 PPG for Yverdon Sport against 0.70 for Stade Lausanne-Ouchy. There is no clear form edge to exploit here; other signals need to take the lead.
H2H History
The head-to-head record is closely matched — Yverdon Sport lead 0W to 0W over the last 1 encounters, with 1 draws, though neither side has established a commanding advantage.
The 1 previous meetings have averaged 2.0 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 28 Sep 2023, ended 1–1 with a draw.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
Trading
Yverdon Sport half-time and goal-timing data (16 games, 8 at home): they score before half-time in 88% of fixtures in home games; BTTS occurs in 62% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 75% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 44%.
Stade Lausanne-Ouchy half-time and goal-timing data (16 games, 8 at away): they score before half-time in 62% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 60% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 62% of games (away games); they fail to score in 31% of games.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Yverdon Sport 69% and Stade Lausanne-Ouchy 62% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. Over 2.5 goals is well-supported by both sides' in-play profiles (Yverdon Sport 69% | Stade Lausanne-Ouchy 62%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Yverdon Sport 1.42 xG and Stade Lausanne-Ouchy 1.49 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Yverdon Sport attack 0.760 / defence 1.445 | Stade Lausanne-Ouchy attack 0.788 / defence 1.061. League average goals — home 1.767 / away 1.311. Yverdon Sport's attack strength of 0.760 is below the league average — the 1.42 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Data: 16 Yverdon Sport games / 16 Stade Lausanne-Ouchy games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Yverdon Sport 35% | Draw 27% | Stade Lausanne-Ouchy 38%. Fair-value odds: Yverdon Sport 2.86 | Draw 3.70 | Stade Lausanne-Ouchy 2.63. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 27% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 56% | BTTS probability 60% | Total xG 2.92. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 56% — the 2.92 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 60% reflects that both xG figures (1.42 / 1.49) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates Stade Lausanne-Ouchy as the most likely outcome at 38% — marginal model lean. Draw probability of 27% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Stade Lausanne-Ouchy if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 35% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.92 combined xG gives a 56% probability to Over 2.5 — reasonable, supported by form averaging 3.3 goals per game.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 60%. Form rates are neutral: Yverdon Sport 62% | Stade Lausanne-Ouchy 44%.
The outsider holds a 35% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Yverdon Sport vs Stade Lausanne-Ouchy | Competition: Super League, Regular Season - 17 | Venue: Stade Municipal • Kick-off: Sunday 10 Dec 2023, 15:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Yverdon Sport 35% | Draw 27% | Stade Lausanne-Ouchy 38% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 56% | BTTS 60% | xG Yverdon Sport 1.42 / Stade Lausanne-Ouchy 1.49 • Poisson strength factors: Yverdon Sport attack 0.760 / def 1.445 | Stade Lausanne-Ouchy attack 0.788 / def 1.061 | league avg home 1.767 / away 1.311 • Poisson stance: Stade Lausanne-Ouchy (38%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.42
Yverdon Sport xG
Expected Goals
1.49
Stade Lausanne-Ouchy xG
60%
BTTS
80%
Over 1.5
56%
Over 2.5
33%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Yverdon Sport vs Stade Lausanne-Ouchy kick off?
Yverdon Sport vs Stade Lausanne-Ouchy kicked off at 15:30 on Sunday 10 December 2023 at Stade Municipal.
What was the final score in Yverdon Sport vs Stade Lausanne-Ouchy?
Yverdon Sport 2 - 1 Stade Lausanne-Ouchy.
Where is Yverdon Sport vs Stade Lausanne-Ouchy being played?
The match is being played at Stade Municipal.
What competition is Yverdon Sport vs Stade Lausanne-Ouchy part of?
Yverdon Sport vs Stade Lausanne-Ouchy is a Regular Season - 17 fixture in the Super League (Switzerland).
Who is favourite to win Yverdon Sport vs Stade Lausanne-Ouchy?
Our statistical model gives Yverdon Sport a 35% chance of winning, Stade Lausanne-Ouchy a 38% chance, and a 27% chance of a draw — making Stade Lausanne-Ouchy the favourite.
Will both teams score in Yverdon Sport vs Stade Lausanne-Ouchy?
Our model estimates a 60% probability that both Yverdon Sport and Stade Lausanne-Ouchy will score (BTTS).
Will Yverdon Sport vs Stade Lausanne-Ouchy have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 56%.
What is the head-to-head record between Yverdon Sport and Stade Lausanne-Ouchy?
Record (1 meetings): Yverdon Sport 0W | Draws 1 | Stade Lausanne-Ouchy 0W.
What form are Yverdon Sport and Stade Lausanne-Ouchy in?
Yverdon Sport (all comps): 2W-3D-5L in 10 | 0.90 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 2.20 | L5 D-L-D-L-L. Stade Lausanne-Ouchy (all comps): 1W-4D-5L in 10 | 0.70 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 2.10 | L5 L-L-L-D-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Yverdon Sport's attacking strength (0.76x league average) is weighed against Stade Lausanne-Ouchy's defensive record (1.06x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.42. Flip it around — Stade Lausanne-Ouchy's attack (0.79x) against Yverdon Sport's defence (1.45x) — and the away total comes out at 1.49.
These ratings are built from 16/16 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 13.0%. Close behind: 1-2 (8.6%), 2-1 (8.2%). Together the top three scorelines make up 30% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Stade Lausanne-Ouchy Win
35%
2.84
27%
3.77
38%
2.61
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.5%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 2
8.6%
Away win
2 – 1
8.2%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.42
Yverdon Sport xG
Total xG
2.92
1.49
Stade Lausanne-Ouchy xG
2.84
35%
Home win
3.77
27%
Draw
2.61
38%
Away win
Goals Markets
79%
Over 1.5
1.27
21%
Under 1.5
4.76
56%
Over 2.5
1.79
44%
Under 2.5
2.27
33%
Over 3.5
3.03
67%
Under 3.5
1.49
17%
Over 4.5
5.88
83%
Under 4.5
1.20
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
60%
BTTS Yes
1.67
40%
BTTS No
2.49
Clean Sheet
22%
4.45
24%
4.15
Win to Nil
8%
12.62
9%
10.86
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.4 | 8.1 | 6.0 | 3.0 | 1.1 | 0.3 |
| 1 | 7.7 | 11.5 | 8.6 | 4.3 | 1.6 | 0.5 |
| 2 | 5.5 | 8.2 | 6.1 | 3.0 | 1.1 | 0.3 |
| 3 | 2.6 | 3.9 | 2.9 | 1.4 | 0.5 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 0.9 | 1.4 | 1.0 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.4 | 0.3 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Yverdon Sport vs Stade Lausanne-Ouchy?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.0%.
How many goals are Yverdon Sport and Stade Lausanne-Ouchy expected to score?
The model projects 1.42 expected goals for Yverdon Sport and 1.49 for Stade Lausanne-Ouchy, a combined total of 2.92.
How confident is the prediction model for Yverdon Sport vs Stade Lausanne-Ouchy?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 38%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Yverdon Sport come into this having played 16 games, going 4W 5D 7L for 1.06 points per game. Their last five reads D-L-D-L-L. The sample for Yverdon Sport is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Stade Lausanne-Ouchy sit at 0.69 PPG from 16 outings (2W 5D 9L), a run that reads L-L-L-D-L across their last five. The sample for Stade Lausanne-Ouchy is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.06 PPG for Yverdon Sport against 0.69 for Stade Lausanne-Ouchy. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
Home & Away Splits
Yverdon Sport's home form reads 3W 3D 2L across 8 games on their own ground, a 1.50 PPG return. That's noticeably better than their 1.06 PPG overall — Yverdon Sport are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
Away from home, Stade Lausanne-Ouchy have taken 0.50 points per game from 8 outings (1W 1D 6L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Yverdon Sport come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Yverdon Sport are averaging 1.25 goals scored and 2.19 conceded per game recently; Stade Lausanne-Ouchy are on 1.06 scored and 2.06 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Yverdon Sport have seen both teams score in 69% of their recent games; Stade Lausanne-Ouchy in 62%.
Last 16 Results — Super League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Yverdon Sport
Blended
Stade Lausanne-Ouchy
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Yverdon Sport and Stade Lausanne-Ouchy in coming into this match?
Yverdon Sport have gone 4W 5D 7L in their last 16 games (1.06 PPG), while Stade Lausanne-Ouchy have gone 2W 5D 9L in their last 16 (0.69 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Yverdon Sport at home or Stade Lausanne-Ouchy away?
Yverdon Sport's home record (1.50 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Yverdon Sport at home: 1.50 PPG; Stade Lausanne-Ouchy away: 0.50 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 4 times since September 2023 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Super League. It has been a while since the last meeting — 11 May 2024, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Records & Recent Trends
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Yverdon Sport won 3-0 on 20 Apr 2024, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Yverdon Sport have gone 2W 0D 0L from 2 meetings on their own ground against Stade Lausanne-Ouchy — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 4 Meetings
2
Yverdon Sport
1
Draws
1
Stade Lausanne-Ouchy
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Yverdon Sport and Stade Lausanne-Ouchy?
From 4 meetings on record, Yverdon Sport have won 2, Stade Lausanne-Ouchy have won 1, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Yverdon Sport and Stade Lausanne-Ouchy last play each other?
They last met on 11 May 2024, when Stade Lausanne-Ouchy 3-1 Yverdon Sport.
Who has won more matches between Yverdon Sport and Stade Lausanne-Ouchy?
Yverdon Sport have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from 4 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Yverdon Sport are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 88% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 25% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 12% of those situations.
Stade Lausanne-Ouchy are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 62% of their matches.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Yverdon Sport 62%, Stade Lausanne-Ouchy 50% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 75% for Yverdon Sport and 62% for Stade Lausanne-Ouchy. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 62% and 25% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Stade Lausanne-Ouchy in 38%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Yverdon Sport home games / Stade Lausanne-Ouchy away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Yverdon Sport play Stade Lausanne-Ouchy?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 62% of Yverdon Sport's games and 50% of Stade Lausanne-Ouchy's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Yverdon Sport vs Stade Lausanne-Ouchy usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 75% of Yverdon Sport's matches and 62% of Stade Lausanne-Ouchy's.
Do Yverdon Sport and Stade Lausanne-Ouchy tend to score early?
Yverdon Sport have had a goal before half-time in 88% of their recent matches, Stade Lausanne-Ouchy in 62% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as Yverdon Sport defy the odds to beat Stade Lausanne-Ouchy 2-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Yverdon Sport beat Stade Lausanne-Ouchy 2-1 at Stade Municipal, Regular Season - 17, in the Super League. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Yverdon Sport 1.42 xG and Stade Lausanne-Ouchy 1.49 xG, a combined 2.92. The scoreboard read 2-1 for 3 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Yverdon Sport attack 0.76 / defence 1.45 against Stade Lausanne-Ouchy attack 0.79 / defence 1.06, drawn from 16/16 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Yverdon Sport 35% | Draw 27% | Stade Lausanne-Ouchy 38%, with Stade Lausanne-Ouchy to win its most likely call at 38%. The actual Yverdon Sport win had been the model's second-ranked read at 35%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 56%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 80% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 60% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 66% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Yverdon Sport 69%, Stade Lausanne-Ouchy 62%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 66%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Yverdon Sport's trading profile (16 games, 8 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 69% of their matches — today it did.
Stade Lausanne-Ouchy's trading profile (16 games, 8 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 62% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Yverdon Sport 1.06 PPG, Stade Lausanne-Ouchy 0.69 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Yverdon Sport win broke the near-deadlock. Yverdon Sport (home/away splits) conceded 1 against a 2.00 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.