BSC Young Boys 3-1 FC ST. Gallen – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates BSC Young Boys at 46%, yet other data sources diverge — this BSC Young Boys vs FC ST. Gallen fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Stadion Wankdorf plays host to BSC Young Boys versus FC ST. Gallen in Super League, Regular Season - 16. Kick-off: Sunday 1 December 2024 at 15:30 UTC.
Form & Momentum
BSC Young Boys have collected 1.50 PPG across 10 Super League outings this season: 4W 3D 3L. Last five: L W D W D. They are averaging 1.30 goals per game and conceding 1.10 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for BSC Young Boys, so this record blends games from this season and last.
In front of their own supporters this season, BSC Young Boys have posted 5W 2D 3L at Stadion Wankdorf — 1.70 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.70 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
FC ST. Gallen (all games): 2W 5D 3L across 10 Super League outings this term — 1.10 points per game. Last five: D D D W D. They are scoring at 1.50 per game and conceding 1.40. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches this season — one of the stronger BTTS rates in the division, making Yes a well-evidenced play. This season is still relatively young for FC ST. Gallen, so this record blends games from this season and last.
FC ST. Gallen's form when playing away from home: 4W 2D 4L across 10 road games this term (1.40 PPG). Away from home they average 1.50 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
A near-identical PPG reading — 1.50 for BSC Young Boys, 1.10 for FC ST. Gallen — means the form record is uninstructive on result selection. The goals and market sections will carry greater evidential weight.
The BTTS picture is exceptionally clear (using home/away splits) — BSC Young Boys register both teams scoring in 70% of relevant games, FC ST. Gallen in 70%. Both sides above 70% makes BTTS Yes one of the strongest standalone angles in this fixture.
H2H History
Form and model data should carry more weight here — the historical record is too balanced to provide a directional steer. From 4 meetings: BSC Young Boys 2W, FC ST. Gallen 1W, 1D.
These two sides have produced goals at a consistent rate historically, averaging 3.8 per game across 4 meetings. That scoring profile provides genuine support for the Over 2.5 angle. The most recent clash, on 28 Jul 2024, ended 0–4 with FC ST. Gallen winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.8 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading Data
BSC Young Boys goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (53 games, 26 at home): they score before half-time in 73% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 79% of the time; BTTS occurs in 58% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 65% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 36%.
FC ST. Gallen goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (53 games, 26 at away): they score before half-time in 69% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 93% of the time; BTTS occurs in 54% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 38% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 36%.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — BSC Young Boys 55% versus FC ST. Gallen 62%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (BSC Young Boys 55% | FC ST. Gallen 53%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects BSC Young Boys 1.70 xG and FC ST. Gallen 1.29 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: BSC Young Boys attack 1.113 / defence 0.992 | FC ST. Gallen attack 1.063 / defence 0.999. League average goals — home 1.526 / away 1.229. Data: 48 BSC Young Boys games / 48 FC ST. Gallen games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: BSC Young Boys 46% | Draw 25% | FC ST. Gallen 29%. Fair-value odds: BSC Young Boys 2.17 | Draw 4.00 | FC ST. Gallen 3.45. BSC Young Boys hold a narrow Poisson edge at 46% — the draw (25%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 57% | BTTS probability 60% | Total xG 2.99. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 57% — the 2.99 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 60% reflects that both xG figures (1.70 / 1.29) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates BSC Young Boys as the most likely outcome at 46% — moderate model lean. Draw probability of 25% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on BSC Young Boys if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 29% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 2.99 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 57% — strong confidence, supported by form averaging 3.0 goals per game and H2H averaging 3.8 goals per meeting.
Poisson assigns a 60% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: BSC Young Boys 70% | FC ST. Gallen 70% BTTS from recent games.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: BSC Young Boys vs FC ST. Gallen | Competition: Super League, Regular Season - 16 | Venue: Stadion Wankdorf • Kick-off: Sunday 1 Dec 2024, 15:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: BSC Young Boys 46% | Draw 25% | FC ST. Gallen 29% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 57% | BTTS 60% | xG BSC Young Boys 1.70 / FC ST. Gallen 1.29 • Poisson strength factors: BSC Young Boys attack 1.113 / def 0.992 | FC ST. Gallen attack 1.063 / def 0.999 | league avg home 1.526 / away 1.229 • Poisson stance: BSC Young Boys (46%) — moderate lean
🎲 Betting Market Intelligence
• Odds data is not currently available for this fixture
🧮 Prediction Model
1.70
BSC Young Boys xG
Expected Goals
1.29
FC ST. Gallen xG
60%
BTTS
81%
Over 1.5
57%
Over 2.5
35%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does BSC Young Boys vs FC ST. Gallen kick off?
BSC Young Boys vs FC ST. Gallen kicked off at 15:30 on Sunday 1 December 2024 at Stadion Wankdorf.
What was the final score in BSC Young Boys vs FC ST. Gallen?
BSC Young Boys 3 - 1 FC ST. Gallen.
Where is BSC Young Boys vs FC ST. Gallen being played?
The match is being played at Stadion Wankdorf.
What competition is BSC Young Boys vs FC ST. Gallen part of?
BSC Young Boys vs FC ST. Gallen is a Regular Season - 16 fixture in the Super League (Switzerland).
Who is favourite to win BSC Young Boys vs FC ST. Gallen?
Our statistical model gives BSC Young Boys a 46% chance of winning, FC ST. Gallen a 29% chance, and a 25% chance of a draw — making BSC Young Boys the favourite.
Will both teams score in BSC Young Boys vs FC ST. Gallen?
Our model estimates a 60% probability that both BSC Young Boys and FC ST. Gallen will score (BTTS).
Will BSC Young Boys vs FC ST. Gallen have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 57%.
What is the head-to-head record between BSC Young Boys and FC ST. Gallen?
Record (4 meetings): BSC Young Boys 2W | Draws 1 | FC ST. Gallen 1W.
What form are BSC Young Boys and FC ST. Gallen in?
BSC Young Boys (all comps): 4W-3D-3L in 10 | 1.50 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 1.10 | L5 L-W-D-W-D. FC ST. Gallen (all comps): 2W-5D-3L in 10 | 1.10 PPG | GF 1.50 / GA 1.40 | L5 D-D-D-W-D.
What do the betting odds say about BSC Young Boys vs FC ST. Gallen?
Odds data is not currently available for this fixture.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Working from BSC Young Boys's attack rating (1.11) and FC ST. Gallen's defence rating (1.00), the model arrives at 1.70 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — FC ST. Gallen's attack (1.06x) against BSC Young Boys's defence (0.99x) — and the away total comes out at 1.29.
These ratings are built from 48/48 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 12.5%. Close behind: 2-1 (9.4%), 2-0 (7.2%). Together the top three scorelines make up 29% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
BSC Young Boys Win
46%
2.16
25%
4.00
29%
3.49
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.0%
Draw
Most likely
2 – 1
9.4%
Home win
1 – 0
8.5%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.70
BSC Young Boys xG
Total xG
2.99
1.29
FC ST. Gallen xG
2.16
46%
Home win
4.00
25%
Draw
3.49
29%
Away win
Goals Markets
80%
Over 1.5
1.25
20%
Under 1.5
5.00
57%
Over 2.5
1.75
43%
Under 2.5
2.33
35%
Over 3.5
2.86
65%
Under 3.5
1.54
18%
Over 4.5
5.56
82%
Under 4.5
1.22
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
60%
BTTS Yes
1.67
40%
BTTS No
2.49
Clean Sheet
27%
3.65
18%
5.46
Win to Nil
13%
7.89
5%
19.02
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.0 | 6.5 | 4.2 | 1.8 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 8.5 | 11.0 | 7.1 | 3.1 | 1.0 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 7.2 | 9.4 | 6.1 | 2.6 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 4.1 | 5.3 | 3.4 | 1.5 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.7 | 2.2 | 1.5 | 0.6 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.6 | 0.8 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for BSC Young Boys vs FC ST. Gallen?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.5%.
How many goals are BSC Young Boys and FC ST. Gallen expected to score?
The model projects 1.70 expected goals for BSC Young Boys and 1.29 for FC ST. Gallen, a combined total of 2.99.
How confident is the prediction model for BSC Young Boys vs FC ST. Gallen?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 46%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
BSC Young Boys come into this having played 53 games, going 27W 13D 13L for 1.77 points per game. Their last five reads L-W-D-W-D. The sample for BSC Young Boys is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, FC ST. Gallen sit at 1.47 PPG from 53 outings (21W 15D 17L), a run that reads D-D-D-W-D across their last five. The sample for FC ST. Gallen is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.77 PPG for BSC Young Boys against 1.47 for FC ST. Gallen. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
How They Fare by Venue
BSC Young Boys's home form reads 18W 4D 4L across 26 games on their own ground, a 2.23 PPG return. That's noticeably better than their 1.77 PPG overall — BSC Young Boys are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
Away from home, FC ST. Gallen have taken 1.08 points per game from 26 outings (7W 7D 12L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, BSC Young Boys come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
BSC Young Boys are averaging 1.79 goals scored and 1.09 conceded per game recently; FC ST. Gallen are on 1.60 scored and 1.32 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: FC ST. Gallen in 62%.
Last 53 Results — Super League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
BSC Young Boys
Blended
FC ST. Gallen
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are BSC Young Boys and FC ST. Gallen in coming into this match?
BSC Young Boys have gone 27W 13D 13L in their last 53 games (1.77 PPG), while FC ST. Gallen have gone 21W 15D 17L in their last 53 (1.47 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — BSC Young Boys at home or FC ST. Gallen away?
BSC Young Boys's home record (2.23 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — BSC Young Boys at home: 2.23 PPG; FC ST. Gallen away: 1.08 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 10 times that we have on record, stretching back to December 2023 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 2 years. Every recorded meeting has come in Super League. They last met on 26 April 2026, roughly 3 months ago.
Notable Numbers
FC ST. Gallen go into this on the back of 2 straight wins in the series — the current momentum sits squarely with them.
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: FC ST. Gallen won 4-0 on 28 Jul 2024, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, BSC Young Boys have gone 4W 0D 2L from 6 meetings on their own ground against FC ST. Gallen — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
5
BSC Young Boys
1
Draws
4
FC ST. Gallen
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between BSC Young Boys and FC ST. Gallen?
From 10 meetings on record, BSC Young Boys have won 5, FC ST. Gallen have won 4, and 1 have been drawn.
When did BSC Young Boys and FC ST. Gallen last play each other?
They last met on 26 April 2026, when BSC Young Boys 1-2 FC ST. Gallen.
Who has won more matches between BSC Young Boys and FC ST. Gallen?
BSC Young Boys have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
BSC Young Boys are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 73% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 35% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 15% of those situations.
FC ST. Gallen are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 69% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 31% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 15% of those situations.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — BSC Young Boys 58%, FC ST. Gallen 54% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 65% (BSC Young Boys) and 38% (FC ST. Gallen).
On the defensive side: BSC Young Boys keep a clean sheet in 31% of their matches; FC ST. Gallen in 35%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = BSC Young Boys home games / FC ST. Gallen away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when BSC Young Boys play FC ST. Gallen?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 58% of BSC Young Boys's games and 54% of FC ST. Gallen's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is BSC Young Boys vs FC ST. Gallen usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 65% of BSC Young Boys's recent games and 38% of FC ST. Gallen's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do BSC Young Boys and FC ST. Gallen tend to score early?
BSC Young Boys have had a goal before half-time in 73% of their recent matches, FC ST. Gallen in 69% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
BSC Young Boys cruise to a comfortable 3-1 victory over FC ST. Gallen.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
BSC Young Boys beat FC ST. Gallen 3-1 at Stadion Wankdorf, Regular Season - 16, in the Super League. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting BSC Young Boys 1.70 xG and FC ST. Gallen 1.29 xG, a combined 2.99. The scoreboard read 3-1 for 4 actual goals. BSC Young Boys beat their projection by 1.3 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of BSC Young Boys attack 1.11 / defence 0.99 against FC ST. Gallen attack 1.06 / defence 1.00, drawn from 48/48 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it BSC Young Boys 46% | Draw 25% | FC ST. Gallen 29%, with BSC Young Boys to win its most likely call at 46%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 57%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 81% and landed. Over 3.5 was 35% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 60% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 54% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (BSC Young Boys 55%, FC ST. Gallen 53%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 58%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
BSC Young Boys's trading profile (53 games, 26 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 55% of their matches — today it did.
FC ST. Gallen's trading profile (53 games, 26 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 62% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — BSC Young Boys 1.77 PPG, FC ST. Gallen 1.47 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the BSC Young Boys win broke the near-deadlock. FC ST. Gallen (home/away splits) shipped 3 against a 1.42 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). A strong night for the model: the result sat comfortably inside what the pre-match data projected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.