Vasteras SK FK 2-1 Gais – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Gais at 41% — recent form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Vasteras SK FK vs Gais encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
Vasteras SK FK welcome Gais to Hitachi Energy Arena in Superettan (matchday 28). Kick-off is Sunday 29 October 2023 at 12:00 UK time.
Recent Form
Across their last 10 games, Vasteras SK FK have gone 6W 3D 1L — a 2.10 PPG return. Last five: W W W W W. Offensively they are averaging 1.70 goals per game, with 1.10 conceded. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base.
Vasteras SK FK's form when playing at home: 8W 2D 0L across their last 10 home games (2.60 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.90 goals scored and 0.40 conceded per game. 7 clean sheets from their last 10 home games (70%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at home. At home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle. Their home PPG of 2.60 is noticeably stronger than their overall 2.10 — Vasteras SK FK are significantly better at home than their overall form suggests.
Looking at their last 10 matches, Gais stand at 9W 0D 1L — 2.70 PPG. Last five: W W W W W. Their attacking form is sharp — 3.40 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. Defensively, 0.60 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not.
Gais's form when playing away from home: 6W 3D 1L across their last 10 road games (2.10 PPG). They are averaging 2.60 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. 7 away clean sheets from their last 10 away games (70%) — they are hard to break down on the road. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel. Their away PPG of 2.10 is notably below their overall 2.70 — form away from home has been a clear weakness recently.
Form points away from home here. Gais's 2.70 PPG return is 0.60 points per game ahead of Vasteras SK FK's 2.10 — the visitors are the form-based selection, and Double Chance is an alternative worth pricing if the outright looks tight.
On the goals front, neither side scores or concedes freely enough to make BTTS Yes the call. Vasteras SK FK's 30% BTTS rate and Gais's 30% (from Vasteras SK FK's last 10 home games and Gais's last 10 away games) are both low — BTTS No is the form-backed angle.
H2H Record
The H2H picture is flat: the 3 H2H matches we hold have produced 2 wins for Vasteras SK FK, 1 for Gais and 0 draws. Form and model data should carry more weight here. With only 3 H2H matches to go on, treat this as a light input.
The 3 H2H matches in our data averaged 2.0 goals per game — a neutral rate that gives no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent of those, on 24 Jul 2023, ended Vasteras SK FK 2–0 Gais — a Vasteras SK FK win.
The head-to-head data offers no strong steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the model and current market pricing should carry more weight for this fixture.
In-Play Data
Vasteras SK FK trading profile (last 27 games, 13 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 46% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 64% of the time; of the 4 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 50%; BTTS occurs in 23% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 46% of games (home games); they keep a clean sheet 56% of the time.
Gais trading profile (last 27 games, 13 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 77% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 50% of the time; they lead at the break 48% of the time; of the 4 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 25%; BTTS occurs in 46% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 69% of games (away games); they keep a clean sheet 44% of the time.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Vasteras SK FK 41% versus Gais 44%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Vasteras SK FK 56% | Gais 63%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Vasteras SK FK 1.14 xG and Gais 1.34 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Vasteras SK FK attack 1.074 / defence 0.632 | Gais attack 1.624 / defence 0.667. League average goals — home 1.596 / away 1.304. Gais bring a tight defence (rating 0.667, below 1 = concedes less than average) — this is pulling Vasteras SK FK's projected output down. Gais have an above-average attack rating of 1.624, which lifts their away xG to 1.34. Vasteras SK FK have a tight defence (rating 0.632), which is pulling Gais's projected output down. Data: built from Vasteras SK FK's last 57 games and Gais's last 27.
Result probabilities: Vasteras SK FK 31% | Draw 28% | Gais 41%. Fair-value odds: Vasteras SK FK 3.18 | Draw 3.59 | Gais 2.46. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome reaches 45%. The draw at 28% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 45% | BTTS Yes probability 51% | Total xG 2.48. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 55% — total xG of 2.48 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS Yes at 51% is only a slight lean — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Gais at 41% — marginal model lean. Recent form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 28% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Gais offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 31% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 2.48 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 55% — a Poisson-only call with no corroboration from form or H2H.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 51% on Yes. This conflicts with form data — both teams scored in: Vasteras SK FK 30% (last 10 home games) | Gais 30% (last 10 away games), a notable divergence.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Vasteras SK FK vs Gais | Competition: Superettan, matchday 28 | Venue: Hitachi Energy Arena • Kick-off: Sunday 29 October 2023 at 12:00 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Vasteras SK FK 31% | Draw 28% | Gais 41% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 45% (Under 55%) | BTTS Yes 51% (No 49%) | xG Vasteras SK FK 1.14 / Gais 1.34 • Poisson strength factors: Vasteras SK FK attack 1.074 / def 0.632 | Gais attack 1.624 / def 0.667 | league avg home 1.596 / away 1.304 • Poisson stance: Gais (41%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.14
Vasteras SK FK xG
Expected Goals
1.34
Gais xG
51%
BTTS
71%
Over 1.5
45%
Over 2.5
24%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Vasteras SK FK vs Gais FAQs
What time does Vasteras SK FK vs Gais kick off?
Vasteras SK FK vs Gais kicked off at 12:00 UK time on Sunday 29 October 2023 at Hitachi Energy Arena.
What was the final score in Vasteras SK FK vs Gais?
Vasteras SK FK 2 - 1 Gais.
Where is Vasteras SK FK vs Gais being played?
The match is being played at Hitachi Energy Arena.
What competition is Vasteras SK FK vs Gais part of?
Vasteras SK FK vs Gais is a Superettan fixture (matchday 28) (Sweden).
Who is favourite to win Vasteras SK FK vs Gais?
Our statistical model gives Vasteras SK FK a 31% chance of winning, Gais a 41% chance, and a 28% chance of a draw — making Gais the favourite.
Will both teams score in Vasteras SK FK vs Gais?
Our model estimates a 51% probability that both Vasteras SK FK and Gais will score, so it leans towards BTTS Yes.
Will Vasteras SK FK vs Gais have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 45%, so it leans towards under 2.5 goals (55%).
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Vasteras SK FK's attacking strength (1.07x league average) is weighed against Gais's defensive record (0.67x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.14. The same calculation in reverse, Gais's attack versus Vasteras SK FK's defence, projects 1.34 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from Vasteras SK FK's last 57 games and Gais's last 27 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 14.5%. Close behind: 0-0 (10.0%), 0-1 (9.5%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 34% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Gais Win
31%
3.18
28%
3.59
41%
2.46
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.8%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
11.2%
Away win
1 – 0
9.6%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.14
Vasteras SK FK xG
Total xG
2.48
1.34
Gais xG
3.18
31%
Home win
3.59
28%
Draw
2.46
41%
Away win
Goals Markets
71%
Over 1.5
1.41
29%
Under 1.5
3.45
45%
Over 2.5
2.22
55%
Under 2.5
1.82
24%
Over 3.5
4.17
76%
Under 3.5
1.32
11%
Over 4.5
9.09
89%
Under 4.5
1.12
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
51%
BTTS Yes
1.97
49%
BTTS No
2.03
Clean Sheet
26%
3.81
32%
3.14
Win to Nil
8%
12.12
13%
7.72
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8.4 | 11.2 | 7.5 | 3.3 | 1.1 | 0.3 |
| 1 | 9.6 | 12.8 | 8.6 | 3.8 | 1.3 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 5.5 | 7.3 | 4.9 | 2.2 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 2.1 | 2.8 | 1.9 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.6 | 0.8 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Vasteras SK FK vs Gais Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Vasteras SK FK vs Gais?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.5%.
How many goals are Vasteras SK FK and Gais expected to score?
The model projects 1.14 expected goals for Vasteras SK FK and 1.34 for Gais, a combined total of 2.48.
How confident is the prediction model for Vasteras SK FK vs Gais?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 41%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Vasteras SK FK come into this having played 27 games, going 18W 6D 3L for 2.22 points per game. Their last five reads W-W-W-W-W.
On the other side, Gais sit at 2.00 PPG from 27 outings (16W 6D 5L), a run that reads W-W-W-W-W across their last five.
Form-wise this is close to level: Vasteras SK FK on 2.22 PPG, Gais on 2.00. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
Vasteras SK FK's home form reads 9W 4D 0L across their last 13 home games, a 2.38 PPG return.
Away from home, Gais have taken 1.92 points per game from their last 13 away games (7W 4D 2L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Vasteras SK FK come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Vasteras SK FK are averaging 1.70 goals scored and 0.74 conceded per game recently; Gais are on 2.15 scored and 0.74 conceded. Gais's attacking output running into Vasteras SK FK's solid defensive record is the key goals-market tension in this fixture.
Defensively: Vasteras SK FK have kept a clean sheet in 56% of their games; Gais in 44% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 27 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Vasteras SK FK
Blended
Gais
Blended
Vasteras SK FK (Home) vs Gais (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Vasteras SK FK
Blended
Gais
Blended
❓ Vasteras SK FK vs Gais Form FAQs
What form are Vasteras SK FK and Gais in coming into this match?
Vasteras SK FK have gone 18W 6D 3L in their last 27 games (2.22 PPG), while Gais have gone 16W 6D 5L in their last 27 (2.00 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Vasteras SK FK at home or Gais away?
Vasteras SK FK's home record (2.38 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Vasteras SK FK at home: 2.38 PPG; Gais away: 1.92 PPG.
Have Vasteras SK FK or Gais been keeping clean sheets recently?
Vasteras SK FK have kept a clean sheet in 56% of their recent games, Gais in 44%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The head-to-head numbers here are drawn from the 7 H2H matches in our data, going back to April 2021. They cover more than one competition — Superettan, Allsvenskan. The most recent was on 9 May 2026, roughly 6 months ago.
Digging Into the Numbers
There's a clear recent trend here: Gais have taken the most recent 3 H2H results in our data.
The biggest gap in our H2H data came on 5 Oct 2021, when Vasteras SK FK won Vasteras SK FK 3-0 Gais.
Vasteras SK FK's record when hosting Gais specifically: 2W 0D 2L from 4 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 7 Meetings
3
Vasteras SK FK
0
Draws
4
Gais
Recent Meetings
❓ Vasteras SK FK vs Gais H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Vasteras SK FK and Gais?
Across the 7 head-to-head matches in our data, Vasteras SK FK have won 3, Gais have won 4, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Vasteras SK FK and Gais last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 9 May 2026: Vasteras SK FK 0-1 Gais.
Who has won more matches between Vasteras SK FK and Gais?
Gais have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from the 7 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Vasteras SK FK see a goal before the break in 46% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 38% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 100% of those situations.
Gais are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 77% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 46% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 17% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
The Numbers That Matter
Clean sheets have been more common than shared scoring for these two — Vasteras SK FK 23% BTTS, Gais 46%. That points toward BTTS No as the trading lean.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 46% (Vasteras SK FK) and 69% (Gais). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 23% and 31% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Vasteras SK FK keep a clean sheet in 77% of their matches; Gais in 54%; Vasteras SK FK have failed to score in 31% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Vasteras SK FK home games / Gais away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Vasteras SK FK vs Gais Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Vasteras SK FK and Gais matches?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 23% of Vasteras SK FK's recent matches and 46% of Gais's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Are Vasteras SK FK and Gais matches usually high-scoring?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 46% of Vasteras SK FK's matches and 69% of Gais's.
Do Vasteras SK FK and Gais matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 46% of Vasteras SK FK's recent matches and 77% of Gais's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as Vasteras SK FK defy the odds to beat Gais 2-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Vasteras SK FK beat Gais 2-1 at Hitachi Energy Arena, Regular Season - 28, in the Superettan. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Vasteras SK FK 1.14 xG and Gais 1.34 xG, a combined 2.48. The scoreboard read 2-1 for 3 actual goals. Vasteras SK FK beat their projection by 0.9 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Vasteras SK FK attack 1.07 / defence 0.63 against Gais attack 1.62 / defence 0.67, drawn from 57/27 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Vasteras SK FK 31% | Draw 28% | Gais 41%, with Gais to win its most likely call at 41%. The actual Vasteras SK FK win had been the model's second-ranked read at 31%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 45%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 71% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 51% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 59% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Vasteras SK FK 56%, Gais 63%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 43%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Vasteras SK FK's trading profile (27 games, 13 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 41% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 56% of the time, and conceded here.
Gais's trading profile (27 games, 13 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 44% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 44% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Vasteras SK FK 2.22 PPG, Gais 2.00 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Vasteras SK FK win broke the near-deadlock. Gais (home/away splits) managed 1 against a 2.31 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 2 against a 0.62 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.