Vasteras SK FK 2-1 Gais – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Gais at 41% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Vasteras SK FK vs Gais encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Superettan clash, Regular Season - 28 as Vasteras SK FK welcome Gais to Hitachi Energy Arena. Kick-off is set for Sunday 29 October 2023 at 12:00 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Superettan games this season, Vasteras SK FK have gone 6W 3D 1L from 10 outings — a 2.10 PPG return. Last five: W W W W W. Offensively they are averaging 1.70 goals per game, with 1.10 conceded. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. This season is still relatively young for Vasteras SK FK, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Vasteras SK FK's form when playing at home: 8W 2D 0L across 10 games at Hitachi Energy Arena this term (2.60 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.90 goals scored and 0.40 conceded per game. 7 clean sheets from 10 home games (70%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Hitachi Energy Arena. At home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle. Their home PPG of 2.60 is noticeably stronger than their overall 2.10 — Vasteras SK FK are significantly better at Hitachi Energy Arena than their overall form suggests.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Gais stand at 9W 0D 1L from 10 Superettan matches — 2.70 PPG. Last five: W W W W W. Their attacking form is sharp — 3.40 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. Defensively, 0.60 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not. This season is still relatively young for Gais, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Gais's form when playing away from home: 6W 3D 1L across 10 road games this term (2.10 PPG). They are averaging 2.60 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. 7 away clean sheets from 10 games (70%) — they are as difficult to score against on the road as they are at home. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel. Their away PPG of 2.10 is notably below their overall 2.70 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
Form points away from home here. Gais's 2.70 PPG return is 0.60 points per game ahead of Vasteras SK FK's 2.10 — the visitors are the form-based selection, and Double Chance is an alternative worth pricing if the outright looks tight.
On the goals front, neither side scores or concedes freely enough to make BTTS Yes the call. Vasteras SK FK's 30% rate and Gais's 30% (using home/away splits) both sit well below average — BTTS No is the form-backed angle.
H2H Record
There is little to separate the sides historically. From 3 previous meetings, Vasteras SK FK have won 2, Gais 1, with 0 draws — a balanced ledger that offers no obvious directional steer on its own.
The 3 previous meetings have averaged 2.0 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 24 Jul 2023, ended 2–0 with Vasteras SK FK winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
In-Play Data
Vasteras SK FK trading profile (27 games, 13 at home): they score before half-time in 46% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 64% of the time; BTTS occurs in 23% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 46% of games (home games); they keep a clean sheet 56% of the time.
Gais trading profile (27 games, 13 at away): they score before half-time in 77% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 50% of the time; they lead at the break 48% of the time; BTTS occurs in 46% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 69% of games (away games); they keep a clean sheet 44% of the time.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Vasteras SK FK 41% versus Gais 44%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Vasteras SK FK 56% | Gais 63%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Vasteras SK FK 1.14 xG and Gais 1.34 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Vasteras SK FK attack 1.074 / defence 0.632 | Gais attack 1.624 / defence 0.667. League average goals — home 1.596 / away 1.304. Gais's defence strength of 0.667 is below average — they are conceding at a rate that inflates the home xG figure. Gais have an above-average attack strength of 1.624 — the away xG of 1.34 is driven by genuine attacking quality on the road. Vasteras SK FK's defence rating of 0.632 is below average — the home backline is amplifying the visitor's projected output. Data: 57 Vasteras SK FK games / 27 Gais games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Vasteras SK FK 31% | Draw 28% | Gais 41%. Fair-value odds: Vasteras SK FK 3.23 | Draw 3.57 | Gais 2.44. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 28% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 45% | BTTS probability 51% | Total xG 2.48. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 55% — total xG of 2.48 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 51% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Gais at 41% — marginal model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 28% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Gais offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 31% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 2.48 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 45% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 51% on Yes. This conflicts with form data: Vasteras SK FK 30% | Gais 30% from recent games — a notable divergence.
The outsider holds a 31% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Vasteras SK FK vs Gais | Competition: Superettan, Regular Season - 28 | Venue: Hitachi Energy Arena • Kick-off: Sunday 29 Oct 2023, 12:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Vasteras SK FK 31% | Draw 28% | Gais 41% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 45% | BTTS 51% | xG Vasteras SK FK 1.14 / Gais 1.34 • Poisson strength factors: Vasteras SK FK attack 1.074 / def 0.632 | Gais attack 1.624 / def 0.667 | league avg home 1.596 / away 1.304 • Poisson stance: Gais (41%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.14
Vasteras SK FK xG
Expected Goals
1.34
Gais xG
51%
BTTS
71%
Over 1.5
45%
Over 2.5
24%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Vasteras SK FK vs Gais kick off?
Vasteras SK FK vs Gais kicked off at 12:00 on Sunday 29 October 2023 at Hitachi Energy Arena.
What was the final score in Vasteras SK FK vs Gais?
Vasteras SK FK 2 - 1 Gais.
Where is Vasteras SK FK vs Gais being played?
The match is being played at Hitachi Energy Arena.
What competition is Vasteras SK FK vs Gais part of?
Vasteras SK FK vs Gais is a Regular Season - 28 fixture in the Superettan (Sweden).
Who is favourite to win Vasteras SK FK vs Gais?
Our statistical model gives Vasteras SK FK a 31% chance of winning, Gais a 41% chance, and a 28% chance of a draw — making Gais the favourite.
Will both teams score in Vasteras SK FK vs Gais?
Our model estimates a 51% probability that both Vasteras SK FK and Gais will score (BTTS).
Will Vasteras SK FK vs Gais have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 45%.
What is the head-to-head record between Vasteras SK FK and Gais?
Record (3 meetings): Vasteras SK FK 2W | Draws 0 | Gais 1W.
What form are Vasteras SK FK and Gais in?
Vasteras SK FK (all comps): 6W-3D-1L in 10 | 2.10 PPG | GF 1.70 / GA 1.10 | L5 W-W-W-W-W. Gais (all comps): 9W-0D-1L in 10 | 2.70 PPG | GF 3.40 / GA 0.60 | L5 W-W-W-W-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Vasteras SK FK's attacking strength (1.07x league average) is weighed against Gais's defensive record (0.67x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.14. The same calculation in reverse, Gais's attack versus Vasteras SK FK's defence, projects 1.34 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 57/27 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 14.5%. Close behind: 0-0 (10.0%), 0-1 (9.5%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 34% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Gais Win
31%
3.18
28%
3.59
41%
2.46
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.8%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
11.2%
Away win
1 – 0
9.6%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.14
Vasteras SK FK xG
Total xG
2.48
1.34
Gais xG
3.18
31%
Home win
3.59
28%
Draw
2.46
41%
Away win
Goals Markets
71%
Over 1.5
1.41
29%
Under 1.5
3.45
45%
Over 2.5
2.22
55%
Under 2.5
1.82
24%
Over 3.5
4.17
76%
Under 3.5
1.32
11%
Over 4.5
9.09
89%
Under 4.5
1.12
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
51%
BTTS Yes
1.97
49%
BTTS No
2.03
Clean Sheet
26%
3.81
32%
3.14
Win to Nil
8%
12.12
13%
7.72
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8.4 | 11.2 | 7.5 | 3.3 | 1.1 | 0.3 |
| 1 | 9.6 | 12.8 | 8.6 | 3.8 | 1.3 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 5.5 | 7.3 | 4.9 | 2.2 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 2.1 | 2.8 | 1.9 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.6 | 0.8 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Vasteras SK FK vs Gais?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.5%.
How many goals are Vasteras SK FK and Gais expected to score?
The model projects 1.14 expected goals for Vasteras SK FK and 1.34 for Gais, a combined total of 2.48.
How confident is the prediction model for Vasteras SK FK vs Gais?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 41%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Vasteras SK FK come into this having played 27 games, going 18W 6D 3L for 2.22 points per game. Their last five reads W-W-W-W-W. The sample for Vasteras SK FK is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Gais sit at 2.00 PPG from 27 outings (16W 6D 5L), a run that reads W-W-W-W-W across their last five. The sample for Gais is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: Vasteras SK FK on 2.22 PPG, Gais on 2.00. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
Vasteras SK FK's home form reads 9W 4D 0L across 13 games on their own ground, a 2.38 PPG return.
Away from home, Gais have taken 1.92 points per game from 13 outings (7W 4D 2L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Vasteras SK FK come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Vasteras SK FK are averaging 1.70 goals scored and 0.74 conceded per game recently; Gais are on 2.15 scored and 0.74 conceded. Gais's attacking output running into Vasteras SK FK's solid defensive record is the key goals-market tension in this fixture.
Defensively: Vasteras SK FK have kept a clean sheet in 56% of their games; Gais in 44% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 27 Results — Superettan
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Vasteras SK FK
Blended
Gais
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Vasteras SK FK and Gais in coming into this match?
Vasteras SK FK have gone 18W 6D 3L in their last 27 games (2.22 PPG), while Gais have gone 16W 6D 5L in their last 27 (2.00 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Vasteras SK FK at home or Gais away?
Vasteras SK FK's home record (2.38 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Vasteras SK FK at home: 2.38 PPG; Gais away: 1.92 PPG.
Have Vasteras SK FK or Gais been keeping clean sheets recently?
Vasteras SK FK have kept a clean sheet in 56% of their recent games, Gais in 44%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Vasteras SK FK and Gais runs to 7 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to April 2021. The pairing has crossed competitions too — Superettan, Allsvenskan all feature in the head-to-head log. They last met on 9 May 2026, roughly 3 months ago.
Digging Into the Numbers
There's a clear current trend here: Gais have taken the last 3 head-to-head results.
The biggest gap between the sides came on 5 Oct 2021, when Vasteras SK FK won 3-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Vasteras SK FK's record when hosting Gais specifically: 2W 0D 2L from 4 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 7 Meetings
3
Vasteras SK FK
0
Draws
4
Gais
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Vasteras SK FK and Gais?
From 7 meetings on record, Vasteras SK FK have won 3, Gais have won 4, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Vasteras SK FK and Gais last play each other?
They last met on 9 May 2026, when Vasteras SK FK 0-1 Gais.
Who has won more matches between Vasteras SK FK and Gais?
Gais have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 7 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Vasteras SK FK see a goal before the break in 46% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 38% of the time.
Gais are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 77% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 46% of the time.
The Numbers That Matter
Clean sheets have been more common than shared scoring for these two — Vasteras SK FK 23% BTTS, Gais 46%. That points toward BTTS No as the trading lean.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 46% (Vasteras SK FK) and 69% (Gais). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 23% and 31% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Vasteras SK FK keep a clean sheet in 77% of their matches; Gais in 54%; Vasteras SK FK have failed to score in 31% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Vasteras SK FK home games / Gais away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Vasteras SK FK play Gais?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 23% of Vasteras SK FK's recent matches and 46% of Gais's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Vasteras SK FK vs Gais usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 46% of Vasteras SK FK's matches and 69% of Gais's.
Do Vasteras SK FK and Gais tend to score early?
Vasteras SK FK have had a goal before half-time in 46% of their recent matches, Gais in 77% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as Vasteras SK FK defy the odds to beat Gais 2-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Vasteras SK FK beat Gais 2-1 at Hitachi Energy Arena, Regular Season - 28, in the Superettan. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Vasteras SK FK 1.14 xG and Gais 1.34 xG, a combined 2.48. The scoreboard read 2-1 for 3 actual goals. Vasteras SK FK beat their projection by 0.9 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Vasteras SK FK attack 1.07 / defence 0.63 against Gais attack 1.62 / defence 0.67, drawn from 57/27 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Vasteras SK FK 31% | Draw 28% | Gais 41%, with Gais to win its most likely call at 41%. The actual Vasteras SK FK win had been the model's second-ranked read at 31%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 45%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 71% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 51% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 59% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Vasteras SK FK 56%, Gais 63%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 43%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Vasteras SK FK's trading profile (27 games, 13 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 41% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 56% of the time, and conceded here.
Gais's trading profile (27 games, 13 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 44% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 44% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Vasteras SK FK 2.22 PPG, Gais 2.00 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Vasteras SK FK win broke the near-deadlock. Gais (home/away splits) managed 1 against a 2.31 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 2 against a 0.62 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.