Ostersunds FK 4-3 Orebro SK – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Ostersunds FK at 60%, yet other data sources diverge — this Ostersunds FK vs Orebro SK fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Superettan clash, Regular Season - 28 as Ostersunds FK welcome Orebro SK to Jämtkraft Arena. Kick-off is set for Saturday 28 October 2023 at 14:00 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Superettan games this season, Ostersunds FK have gone 2W 6D 2L from 10 outings — a 1.20 PPG return. Last five: L W D W L. They are averaging 1.30 goals per game and conceding 1.50 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Ostersunds FK, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Ostersunds FK's home record at Jämtkraft Arena: 4W 4D 2L from 10 Superettan appearances (1.60 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.70 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 80% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Orebro SK stand at 4W 1D 5L from 10 Superettan matches — 1.30 PPG. Last five: L W L L L. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.00 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Orebro SK, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Orebro SK's away record: 1W 2D 7L from 10 road trips in Superettan this season (0.50 PPG). Away from home they average 1.30 goals scored and 2.40 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture. Their away PPG of 0.50 is notably below their overall 1.30 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
The form comparison is too close to call — 1.20 PPG (Ostersunds FK) versus 1.30 (Orebro SK). When the figures are this level, no pick can be reliably derived from recent results alone.
Both teams score in over 70% of each side's relevant games (using home/away splits). At that combined rate, BTTS Yes is as well-evidenced as it gets — the data strongly backs two-way scoring.
H2H Record
There is little to separate the sides historically. From 4 previous meetings, Ostersunds FK have won 1, Orebro SK 2, with 1 draws — a balanced ledger that offers no obvious directional steer on its own.
The last 4 meetings have been tight affairs, averaging just 1.2 goals per game. That low-scoring pattern is a meaningful historical input for the Under 2.5 market. The most recent clash, on 9 Apr 2023, ended 0–0 with a draw.
With a balanced win record and just 1.2 goals per game historically, the H2H points toward a tight, low-scoring contest. Under 2.5 goals has the strongest statistical grounding from the fixture history regardless of which side wins.
Trading Patterns
Ostersunds FK in-play and half-time data (57 games, 28 at home): they score before half-time in 61% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 82% of the time; BTTS occurs in 61% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 46% of games (home games).
Orebro SK in-play and half-time data (57 games, 28 at away): they score before half-time in 75% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 53% of the time; BTTS occurs in 54% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 64% of games (away games); they fail to score in 35% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Ostersunds FK 58% versus Orebro SK 47%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Ostersunds FK 42% | Orebro SK 51%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Ostersunds FK 2.10 xG and Orebro SK 1.13 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Ostersunds FK attack 1.019 / defence 0.968 | Orebro SK attack 0.902 / defence 1.292. League average goals — home 1.591 / away 1.293. Orebro SK bring a strong defensive rating of 1.292 — this is suppressing Ostersunds FK's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 57 Ostersunds FK games / 57 Orebro SK games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Ostersunds FK 60% | Draw 21% | Orebro SK 20%. Fair-value odds: Ostersunds FK 1.67 | Draw 4.76 | Orebro SK 5.00. The model has a clear lean to Ostersunds FK (60%) — a 40pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 62% | BTTS probability 59% | Total xG 3.22. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 62% — the 3.22 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS probability of 59% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Ostersunds FK are the pick at 60% — clear model lean. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 21% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
Poisson projects 3.22 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 62% probability — marginal — conflicting signals conviction, supported by form averaging 3.3 goals per game — though H2H averaging only 1.2 goals per meeting points in the other direction.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 59%. Form rates corroborate: Ostersunds FK 80% | Orebro SK 70% BTTS from recent games.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Ostersunds FK vs Orebro SK | Competition: Superettan, Regular Season - 28 | Venue: Jämtkraft Arena • Kick-off: Saturday 28 Oct 2023, 14:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Ostersunds FK 60% | Draw 21% | Orebro SK 20% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 62% | BTTS 59% | xG Ostersunds FK 2.10 / Orebro SK 1.13 • Poisson strength factors: Ostersunds FK attack 1.019 / def 0.968 | Orebro SK attack 0.902 / def 1.292 | league avg home 1.591 / away 1.293 • Poisson stance: Ostersunds FK (60%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
2.10
Ostersunds FK xG
Expected Goals
1.13
Orebro SK xG
59%
BTTS
83%
Over 1.5
62%
Over 2.5
40%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Ostersunds FK vs Orebro SK kick off?
Ostersunds FK vs Orebro SK kicked off at 14:00 on Saturday 28 October 2023 at Jämtkraft Arena.
What was the final score in Ostersunds FK vs Orebro SK?
Ostersunds FK 4 - 3 Orebro SK.
Where is Ostersunds FK vs Orebro SK being played?
The match is being played at Jämtkraft Arena.
What competition is Ostersunds FK vs Orebro SK part of?
Ostersunds FK vs Orebro SK is a Regular Season - 28 fixture in the Superettan (Sweden).
Who is favourite to win Ostersunds FK vs Orebro SK?
Our statistical model gives Ostersunds FK a 60% chance of winning, Orebro SK a 20% chance, and a 21% chance of a draw — making Ostersunds FK the favourite.
Will both teams score in Ostersunds FK vs Orebro SK?
Our model estimates a 59% probability that both Ostersunds FK and Orebro SK will score (BTTS).
Will Ostersunds FK vs Orebro SK have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 62%.
What is the head-to-head record between Ostersunds FK and Orebro SK?
Record (4 meetings): Ostersunds FK 1W | Draws 1 | Orebro SK 2W.
What form are Ostersunds FK and Orebro SK in?
Ostersunds FK (all comps): 2W-6D-2L in 10 | 1.20 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 1.50 | L5 L-W-D-W-L. Orebro SK (all comps): 4W-1D-5L in 10 | 1.30 PPG | GF 2.00 / GA 1.70 | L5 L-W-L-L-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
The model rates Ostersunds FK's attack at 1.02x the league average against Orebro SK's defence at 1.29x — combine the two and it projects 2.10 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Orebro SK's attack versus Ostersunds FK's defence, projects 1.13 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 57/57 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 10.6% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 2-1 (9.9%), 2-0 (8.7%). Together the top three scorelines make up 29% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Ostersunds FK Win
60%
1.68
21%
4.82
20%
5.07
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
2 – 1
9.9%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
9.4%
Draw
2 – 0
8.7%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
2.10
Ostersunds FK xG
Total xG
3.22
1.13
Orebro SK xG
1.68
60%
Home win
4.82
21%
Draw
5.07
20%
Away win
Goals Markets
83%
Over 1.5
1.20
17%
Under 1.5
5.88
62%
Over 2.5
1.61
38%
Under 2.5
2.63
40%
Over 3.5
2.50
60%
Under 3.5
1.67
22%
Over 4.5
4.55
78%
Under 4.5
1.28
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
59%
BTTS Yes
1.68
41%
BTTS No
2.46
Clean Sheet
32%
3.09
12%
8.13
Win to Nil
19%
5.19
2%
41.18
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.0 | 4.5 | 2.5 | 1.0 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 8.3 | 9.4 | 5.3 | 2.0 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 8.7 | 9.9 | 5.6 | 2.1 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 6.1 | 6.9 | 3.9 | 1.5 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 3.2 | 3.6 | 2.0 | 0.8 | 0.2 | – |
| 5 | 1.3 | 1.5 | 0.9 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Ostersunds FK vs Orebro SK?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 10.6%.
How many goals are Ostersunds FK and Orebro SK expected to score?
The model projects 2.10 expected goals for Ostersunds FK and 1.13 for Orebro SK, a combined total of 3.22.
How confident is the prediction model for Ostersunds FK vs Orebro SK?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 60%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Across their last 57 outings, Ostersunds FK have picked up 1.23 PPG on a 16W 22D 19L record — L-W-D-W-L across the most recent five. The sample for Ostersunds FK is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Orebro SK's form line: 17W 17D 23L from 57 games, 1.19 PPG, last five L-W-L-L-L. The sample for Orebro SK is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: Ostersunds FK on 1.23 PPG, Orebro SK on 1.19. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
On home soil, Ostersunds FK have posted 1.57 PPG from 28 outings (11W 11D 6L).
On the road, Orebro SK have gone 6W 7D 15L from 28 away games — 0.89 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Ostersunds FK come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Ostersunds FK are averaging 1.21 goals scored and 1.32 conceded per game recently; Orebro SK are on 1.21 scored and 1.33 conceded.
Last 57 Results — Superettan
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Ostersunds FK
Blended
Orebro SK
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Ostersunds FK and Orebro SK in coming into this match?
Ostersunds FK have gone 16W 22D 19L in their last 57 games (1.23 PPG), while Orebro SK have gone 17W 17D 23L in their last 57 (1.19 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Ostersunds FK at home or Orebro SK away?
Ostersunds FK's home record (1.57 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Ostersunds FK at home: 1.57 PPG; Orebro SK away: 0.89 PPG.
Have Ostersunds FK or Orebro SK been keeping clean sheets recently?
Ostersunds FK have kept a clean sheet in 26% of their recent games, Orebro SK in 32%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Ostersunds FK and Orebro SK runs to 10 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to September 2021. The pairing has crossed competitions too — Allsvenskan, Superettan all feature in the head-to-head log. The two were last together as recently as 31 May 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Digging Into the Numbers
The biggest gap between the sides came on 2 Aug 2024, when Orebro SK won 4-1 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Ostersunds FK's record when hosting Orebro SK specifically: 4W 1D 0L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
4
Ostersunds FK
2
Draws
4
Orebro SK
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Ostersunds FK and Orebro SK?
From 10 meetings on record, Ostersunds FK have won 4, Orebro SK have won 4, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Ostersunds FK and Orebro SK last play each other?
They last met on 31 May 2026, when Ostersunds FK 3-2 Orebro SK.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Ostersunds FK are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 61% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 36% of the time.
Orebro SK are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 75% of their matches.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Ostersunds FK 61%, Orebro SK 54% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 46% (Ostersunds FK) and 64% (Orebro SK). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 29% and 18% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Ostersunds FK keep a clean sheet in 32% of their matches; Orebro SK in 32%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Ostersunds FK home games / Orebro SK away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Ostersunds FK play Orebro SK?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 61% of Ostersunds FK's games and 54% of Orebro SK's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Ostersunds FK vs Orebro SK usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 46% of Ostersunds FK's matches and 64% of Orebro SK's.
Do Ostersunds FK and Orebro SK tend to score early?
Ostersunds FK have had a goal before half-time in 61% of their recent matches, Orebro SK in 75% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Ostersunds FK edge out Orebro SK 4-3.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Ostersunds FK beat Orebro SK 4-3 at Jämtkraft Arena, Regular Season - 28, in the Superettan. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Ostersunds FK 2.10 xG and Orebro SK 1.13 xG, a combined 3.22. The scoreboard read 4-3 for 7 actual goals. Ostersunds FK beat their projection by 1.9 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Orebro SK outscored their 1.13 projection by 1.9. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Ostersunds FK attack 1.02 / defence 0.97 against Orebro SK attack 0.90 / defence 1.29, drawn from 57/57 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Ostersunds FK 60% | Draw 21% | Orebro SK 20%, with Ostersunds FK to win its most likely call at 60%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 62%. The game delivered 7, so it went over — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 83% and landed. Over 3.5 was 40% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 59% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 46% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Ostersunds FK 42%, Orebro SK 51%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 53%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Ostersunds FK's trading profile (57 games, 28 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 58% of their matches — today it did.
Orebro SK's trading profile (57 games, 28 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 47% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 32% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Ostersunds FK 1.23 PPG, Orebro SK 1.19 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Ostersunds FK win broke the near-deadlock. Ostersunds FK (home/away splits) scored 4 against a 1.46 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 3 against a 1.18 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Orebro SK (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.00 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 4 against a 1.64 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The numbers read this fixture well — the outcome largely followed the script the data laid out beforehand.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.