Varbergs BoIS FC 1-0 Vasteras SK FK – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Varbergs BoIS FC at 63%, yet in-form Vasteras SK FK provide a compelling counter-argument — this Varbergs BoIS FC vs Vasteras SK FK fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Vasteras SK FK make the trip to Paskbergsvallen to face Varbergs BoIS FC in Superettan, Regular Season - 12. The match kicks off on Sunday 15 June 2025 at 16:00 UTC.
Form
Varbergs BoIS FC (all games): 3W 5D 2L across 10 Superettan fixtures this term — 1.40 PPG. Last five: D W D W W. Offensively they are averaging 1.60 goals per game, with 1.50 conceded. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
Varbergs BoIS FC at Paskbergsvallen this season: 3W 5D 2L from 10 home games — 1.40 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.40 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Vasteras SK FK's overall Superettan record this term: 6W 2D 2L from 10 games (2.00 PPG). Last five: W W W L L. They are scoring at 1.50 per game and conceding 0.80. Defensively, 0.80 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. Vasteras SK FK haven't played a Superettan game yet this season, so this record is entirely from last season.
Vasteras SK FK away from home this season: 6W 2D 2L from 10 away games — 2.00 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.50 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game.
The travelling side arrive in better shape. Vasteras SK FK are 0.60 PPG clear of Varbergs BoIS FC in recent Superettan fixtures (2.00 vs 1.40). Backing the visitors outright or on Draw No Bet are both valid approaches where the price allows.
Trading & In-Play
Varbergs BoIS FC — key trading statistics (30 games, 15 at home): they score before half-time in 80% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 88% of the time; BTTS occurs in 60% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 53% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 37%.
Vasteras SK FK — key trading statistics (30 games, 15 at away): they score before half-time in 67% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; BTTS occurs in 53% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 60% of games (away games); they keep a clean sheet 50% of the time.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Varbergs BoIS FC 63% versus Vasteras SK FK 40%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Varbergs BoIS FC 57% | Vasteras SK FK 53%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Varbergs BoIS FC 2.24 xG and Vasteras SK FK 1.12 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Varbergs BoIS FC attack 1.163 / defence 0.750 | Vasteras SK FK attack 1.095 / defence 1.351. League average goals — home 1.426 / away 1.359. Vasteras SK FK bring a strong defensive rating of 1.351 — this is suppressing Varbergs BoIS FC's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Varbergs BoIS FC's defence rating of 0.750 is below average — the home backline is amplifying the visitor's projected output. Data: 41 Varbergs BoIS FC games / 11 Vasteras SK FK games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Varbergs BoIS FC 63% | Draw 19% | Vasteras SK FK 18%. Fair-value odds: Varbergs BoIS FC 1.59 | Draw 5.26 | Vasteras SK FK 5.56. The model has a clear lean to Varbergs BoIS FC (63%) — a 45pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 65% | BTTS probability 60% | Total xG 3.36. Over 2.5 is the model's clear signal at 65% — a total xG of 3.36 means the expected score alone exceeds the 2.5 threshold, making the Over not just likely but structurally supported by both sides' attack/defence profiles. BTTS Yes at 60% reflects that both xG figures (2.24 / 1.12) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates Varbergs BoIS FC as the most likely outcome at 63% — clear model lean. Note a divergence: in-form Vasteras SK FK (2.00 PPG) cuts against the Poisson lean — consider the strength-adjusted model over surface-level form results. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 19% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
The Poisson model projects 3.36 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 65% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence.
Poisson assigns a 60% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Varbergs BoIS FC 60% | Vasteras SK FK 50% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Varbergs BoIS FC vs Vasteras SK FK | Competition: Superettan, Regular Season - 12 | Venue: Paskbergsvallen • Kick-off: Sunday 15 Jun 2025, 16:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Varbergs BoIS FC 63% | Draw 19% | Vasteras SK FK 18% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 65% | BTTS 60% | xG Varbergs BoIS FC 2.24 / Vasteras SK FK 1.12 • Poisson strength factors: Varbergs BoIS FC attack 1.163 / def 0.750 | Vasteras SK FK attack 1.095 / def 1.351 | league avg home 1.426 / away 1.359 • Poisson stance: Varbergs BoIS FC (63%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
2.24
Varbergs BoIS FC xG
Expected Goals
1.12
Vasteras SK FK xG
60%
BTTS
85%
Over 1.5
65%
Over 2.5
43%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Varbergs BoIS FC vs Vasteras SK FK kick off?
Varbergs BoIS FC vs Vasteras SK FK kicked off at 16:00 on Sunday 15 June 2025 at Paskbergsvallen.
What was the final score in Varbergs BoIS FC vs Vasteras SK FK?
Varbergs BoIS FC 1 - 0 Vasteras SK FK.
Where is Varbergs BoIS FC vs Vasteras SK FK being played?
The match is being played at Paskbergsvallen.
What competition is Varbergs BoIS FC vs Vasteras SK FK part of?
Varbergs BoIS FC vs Vasteras SK FK is a Regular Season - 12 fixture in the Superettan (Sweden).
Who is favourite to win Varbergs BoIS FC vs Vasteras SK FK?
Our statistical model gives Varbergs BoIS FC a 63% chance of winning, Vasteras SK FK a 18% chance, and a 19% chance of a draw — making Varbergs BoIS FC the favourite.
Will both teams score in Varbergs BoIS FC vs Vasteras SK FK?
Our model estimates a 60% probability that both Varbergs BoIS FC and Vasteras SK FK will score (BTTS).
Will Varbergs BoIS FC vs Vasteras SK FK have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 65%.
What is the head-to-head record between Varbergs BoIS FC and Vasteras SK FK?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Varbergs BoIS FC and Vasteras SK FK in?
Varbergs BoIS FC (all comps): 3W-5D-2L in 10 | 1.40 PPG | GF 1.60 / GA 1.50 | L5 D-W-D-W-W. Vasteras SK FK (all comps): 6W-2D-2L in 10 | 2.00 PPG | GF 1.50 / GA 0.80 | L5 W-W-W-L-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Working from Varbergs BoIS FC's attack rating (1.16) and Vasteras SK FK's defence rating (1.35), the model arrives at 2.24 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Vasteras SK FK's attack (1.09x) against Varbergs BoIS FC's defence (0.75x) — and the away total comes out at 1.12.
These ratings are built from 41/11 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 9.9%. Close behind: 2-1 (9.8%), 2-0 (8.7%). Together the top three scorelines make up 28% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Varbergs BoIS FC Win
63%
1.59
19%
5.15
18%
5.61
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
2 – 1
9.8%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
8.7%
Draw
2 – 0
8.7%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
2.24
Varbergs BoIS FC xG
Total xG
3.36
1.12
Vasteras SK FK xG
1.59
63%
Home win
5.15
19%
Draw
5.61
18%
Away win
Goals Markets
85%
Over 1.5
1.18
15%
Under 1.5
6.67
65%
Over 2.5
1.54
35%
Under 2.5
2.86
43%
Over 3.5
2.33
57%
Under 3.5
1.75
25%
Over 4.5
4.00
75%
Under 4.5
1.33
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
60%
BTTS Yes
1.66
40%
BTTS No
2.51
Clean Sheet
33%
3.05
11%
9.39
Win to Nil
21%
4.87
2%
52.68
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 3.5 | 3.9 | 2.2 | 0.8 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 7.8 | 8.7 | 4.9 | 1.8 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 8.7 | 9.8 | 5.4 | 2.0 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 6.5 | 7.3 | 4.1 | 1.5 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 3.7 | 4.1 | 2.3 | 0.8 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 1.6 | 1.8 | 1.0 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Varbergs BoIS FC vs Vasteras SK FK?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 9.9%.
How many goals are Varbergs BoIS FC and Vasteras SK FK expected to score?
The model projects 2.24 expected goals for Varbergs BoIS FC and 1.12 for Vasteras SK FK, a combined total of 3.36.
How confident is the prediction model for Varbergs BoIS FC vs Vasteras SK FK?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 63%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Varbergs BoIS FC's recent record stands at 10W 9D 11L from 30 games, a 1.30 PPG return, with D-W-D-W-W in the last five.
Vasteras SK FK, meanwhile, have gone 19W 6D 5L across 30 games — 2.10 PPG, with W-W-W-L-L in their last five. Vasteras SK FK haven't played enough this season for a current-season-only sample, so this includes results carried over from last season.
The points-per-game comparison favours Vasteras SK FK by 0.80 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Varbergs BoIS FC heading into this one.
How They Fare by Venue
At home specifically, Varbergs BoIS FC have managed 5W 5D 5L from 15 games — 1.33 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Vasteras SK FK's away record stands at 9W 2D 4L across 15 trips, a 1.93 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Vasteras SK FK come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
Varbergs BoIS FC are averaging 1.53 goals scored and 1.47 conceded per game recently; Vasteras SK FK are on 1.60 scored and 0.80 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Varbergs BoIS FC have seen both teams score in 63% of their recent games.
Defensively: Vasteras SK FK in 50% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 30 Results — Superettan
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Varbergs BoIS FC
Current Season
Vasteras SK FK
Pre-Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Varbergs BoIS FC and Vasteras SK FK in coming into this match?
Varbergs BoIS FC have gone 10W 9D 11L in their last 30 games (1.30 PPG), while Vasteras SK FK have gone 19W 6D 5L in their last 30 (2.10 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Varbergs BoIS FC at home or Vasteras SK FK away?
Vasteras SK FK's away record (1.93 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Varbergs BoIS FC at home: 1.33 PPG; Vasteras SK FK away: 1.93 PPG.
Have Varbergs BoIS FC or Vasteras SK FK been keeping clean sheets recently?
Varbergs BoIS FC have kept a clean sheet in 20% of their recent games, Vasteras SK FK in 50%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 2 times that we have on record, stretching back to June 2025 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 1 year. Every recorded meeting has come in Superettan. They last met on 8 November 2025, roughly 10 months ago.
Last 2 Meetings
1
Varbergs BoIS FC
0
Draws
1
Vasteras SK FK
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Varbergs BoIS FC and Vasteras SK FK?
From 2 meetings on record, Varbergs BoIS FC have won 1, Vasteras SK FK have won 1, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Varbergs BoIS FC and Vasteras SK FK last play each other?
They last met on 8 November 2025, when Vasteras SK FK 4-1 Varbergs BoIS FC.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Varbergs BoIS FC are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 80% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 20% of those situations.
Vasteras SK FK are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 40% of the time.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Varbergs BoIS FC 60%, Vasteras SK FK 53% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 53% (Varbergs BoIS FC) and 60% (Vasteras SK FK). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 20% and 27% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Vasteras SK FK in 33%; Varbergs BoIS FC have failed to score in 27% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Varbergs BoIS FC home games / Vasteras SK FK away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Varbergs BoIS FC play Vasteras SK FK?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 60% of Varbergs BoIS FC's games and 53% of Vasteras SK FK's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Varbergs BoIS FC vs Vasteras SK FK usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 53% of Varbergs BoIS FC's matches and 60% of Vasteras SK FK's.
Do Varbergs BoIS FC and Vasteras SK FK tend to score early?
Varbergs BoIS FC have had a goal before half-time in 80% of their recent matches, Vasteras SK FK in 67% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Varbergs BoIS FC edge out Vasteras SK FK 1-0.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Varbergs BoIS FC beat Vasteras SK FK 1-0 at Paskbergsvallen, Regular Season - 12, in the Superettan. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Varbergs BoIS FC 2.24 xG and Vasteras SK FK 1.12 xG, a combined 3.36. The scoreboard read 1-0 for 1 actual goal. Varbergs BoIS FC fell 1.2 short of their projected output. Vasteras SK FK landed 1.1 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Varbergs BoIS FC attack 1.16 / defence 0.75 against Vasteras SK FK attack 1.09 / defence 1.35, drawn from 41/11 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Varbergs BoIS FC 63% | Draw 19% | Vasteras SK FK 18%, with Varbergs BoIS FC to win its most likely call at 63%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 65%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 85% and missed. Over 3.5 was 43% and did not. On both teams to score, the model sat at 60% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 55% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Varbergs BoIS FC 57%, Vasteras SK FK 53%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 52%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Varbergs BoIS FC's trading profile (30 games, 15 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 63% of their matches — today it did not.
Vasteras SK FK's trading profile (30 games, 15 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 40% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 50% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
On form, Vasteras SK FK arrived the stronger side — 2.10 PPG against 1.30. Form was overturned, with Varbergs BoIS FC winning despite arriving in poorer recent shape. Varbergs BoIS FC (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.33 average — tighter than their form line. Vasteras SK FK (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.60 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.