Umeå FC 0-1 GIF Sundsvall – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates GIF Sundsvall at 59%, yet other data sources diverge — this Umeå FC vs GIF Sundsvall fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Umea Energi Arena plays host to Umeå FC versus GIF Sundsvall in Superettan, Regular Season - 12. Kick-off: Saturday 14 June 2025 at 16:00 UTC.
Form & Momentum
GIF Sundsvall's overall Superettan record this term: 6W 1D 3L from 10 games (1.90 PPG). Last five: D W W W W. They are scoring at 1.60 per game and conceding 1.10. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
GIF Sundsvall away from home this season: 4W 2D 4L from 10 away games — 1.40 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 0.80 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game. 4 clean sheets from 10 away games (40%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel. Their away PPG of 1.40 is notably below their overall 1.90 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Umeå FC 0.81 xG and GIF Sundsvall 1.70 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Umeå FC attack 0.783 / defence 1.381 | GIF Sundsvall attack 0.900 / defence 0.727. League average goals — home 1.420 / away 1.366. Umeå FC's attack strength of 0.783 is below the league average — the 0.81 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. GIF Sundsvall's defence strength of 0.727 is below average — they are conceding at a rate that inflates the home xG figure. Data: 11 Umeå FC games / 41 GIF Sundsvall games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Umeå FC 18% | Draw 24% | GIF Sundsvall 59%. Fair-value odds: Umeå FC 5.56 | Draw 4.17 | GIF Sundsvall 1.69. The model has a clear lean to GIF Sundsvall (59%) — a 41pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 46% | BTTS probability 45% | Total xG 2.51. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 46%/54% — the total xG of 2.51 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 45% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, GIF Sundsvall are the pick at 59% — clear model lean. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 24% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.51 combined xG gives a 46% probability to Under 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Umeå FC vs GIF Sundsvall | Competition: Superettan, Regular Season - 12 | Venue: Umea Energi Arena • Kick-off: Saturday 14 Jun 2025, 16:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Umeå FC 18% | Draw 24% | GIF Sundsvall 59% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 46% | BTTS 45% | xG Umeå FC 0.81 / GIF Sundsvall 1.70 • Poisson strength factors: Umeå FC attack 0.783 / def 1.381 | GIF Sundsvall attack 0.900 / def 0.727 | league avg home 1.420 / away 1.366 • Poisson stance: GIF Sundsvall (59%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
0.81
Umeå FC xG
Expected Goals
1.70
GIF Sundsvall xG
45%
BTTS
71%
Over 1.5
46%
Over 2.5
24%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Umeå FC vs GIF Sundsvall kick off?
Umeå FC vs GIF Sundsvall kicked off at 16:00 on Saturday 14 June 2025 at Umea Energi Arena.
What was the final score in Umeå FC vs GIF Sundsvall?
Umeå FC 0 - 1 GIF Sundsvall.
Where is Umeå FC vs GIF Sundsvall being played?
The match is being played at Umea Energi Arena.
What competition is Umeå FC vs GIF Sundsvall part of?
Umeå FC vs GIF Sundsvall is a Regular Season - 12 fixture in the Superettan (Sweden).
Who is favourite to win Umeå FC vs GIF Sundsvall?
Our statistical model gives Umeå FC a 18% chance of winning, GIF Sundsvall a 59% chance, and a 24% chance of a draw — making GIF Sundsvall the favourite.
Will both teams score in Umeå FC vs GIF Sundsvall?
Our model estimates a 45% probability that both Umeå FC and GIF Sundsvall will score (BTTS).
Will Umeå FC vs GIF Sundsvall have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 46%.
What is the head-to-head record between Umeå FC and GIF Sundsvall?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Umeå FC and GIF Sundsvall in?
GIF Sundsvall (all comps): 6W-1D-3L in 10 | 1.90 PPG | GF 1.60 / GA 1.10 | L5 D-W-W-W-W. GIF Sundsvall away split: 1.40 PPG from 10 | GF 0.80 / GA 1.40 | CS 4.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Working from Umeå FC's attack rating (0.78) and GIF Sundsvall's defence rating (0.73), the model arrives at 0.81 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — GIF Sundsvall's attack (0.90x) against Umeå FC's defence (1.38x) — and the away total comes out at 1.70.
These ratings are built from 11/41 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 12.7%. Close behind: 0-1 (12.4%), 0-2 (11.7%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 37% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
GIF Sundsvall Win
18%
5.67
24%
4.19
59%
1.71
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 1
13.8%
Away win
Most likely
0 – 2
11.7%
Away win
1 – 1
11.2%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.81
Umeå FC xG
Total xG
2.51
1.70
GIF Sundsvall xG
5.67
18%
Home win
4.19
24%
Draw
1.71
59%
Away win
Goals Markets
71%
Over 1.5
1.41
29%
Under 1.5
3.45
46%
Over 2.5
2.17
54%
Under 2.5
1.85
24%
Over 3.5
4.17
76%
Under 3.5
1.32
11%
Over 4.5
9.09
89%
Under 4.5
1.12
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
45%
BTTS Yes
2.21
55%
BTTS No
1.83
Clean Sheet
18%
5.46
45%
2.25
Win to Nil
3%
30.94
26%
3.84
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8.2 | 13.8 | 11.7 | 6.6 | 2.8 | 1.0 |
| 1 | 6.6 | 11.2 | 9.5 | 5.4 | 2.3 | 0.8 |
| 2 | 2.7 | 4.5 | 3.8 | 2.2 | 0.9 | 0.3 |
| 3 | 0.7 | 1.2 | 1.0 | 0.6 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.1 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | – | – | – | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Umeå FC vs GIF Sundsvall?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.7%.
How many goals are Umeå FC and GIF Sundsvall expected to score?
The model projects 0.81 expected goals for Umeå FC and 1.70 for GIF Sundsvall, a combined total of 2.51.
How confident is the prediction model for Umeå FC vs GIF Sundsvall?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 59%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
Last 0 Results — Superettan
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Umeå FC
Pre-Season
GIF Sundsvall
Pre-Season
No results found.
No results found.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 2 times since June 2025 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Superettan. They last met on 29 September 2025, roughly 11 months ago.
Last 2 Meetings
0
Umeå FC
0
Draws
2
GIF Sundsvall
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Umeå FC and GIF Sundsvall?
From 2 meetings on record, Umeå FC have won 0, GIF Sundsvall have won 2, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Umeå FC and GIF Sundsvall last play each other?
They last met on 29 September 2025, when GIF Sundsvall 3-1 Umeå FC.
Who has won more matches between Umeå FC and GIF Sundsvall?
GIF Sundsvall have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from 2 meetings.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Umeå FC home games / GIF Sundsvall away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
Prediction vindicated as GIF Sundsvall edge out Umeå FC 0-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
GIF Sundsvall beat Umeå FC 0-1 at Umea Energi Arena, Regular Season - 12, in the Superettan. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Umeå FC 0.81 xG and GIF Sundsvall 1.70 xG, a combined 2.51. The scoreboard read 0-1 for 1 actual goal. Umeå FC fell 0.8 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Umeå FC attack 0.78 / defence 1.38 against GIF Sundsvall attack 0.90 / defence 0.73, drawn from 11/41 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Umeå FC 18% | Draw 24% | GIF Sundsvall 59%, with GIF Sundsvall to win its most likely call at 59%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 46%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 71% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 45% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The numbers read this fixture well — the outcome largely followed the script the data laid out beforehand.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.