Ostersunds FK 1-0 Utsikten – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Ostersunds FK at 38%, yet other data sources diverge — this Ostersunds FK vs Utsikten fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Jämtkraft Arena plays host to Ostersunds FK versus Utsikten in Superettan, Regular Season - 13. Kick-off: Sunday 23 June 2024 at 14:00 UTC.
Form & Momentum
Ostersunds FK have collected 1.50 PPG across 10 Superettan outings this season: 4W 3D 3L. Last five: W L W L W. Offensively they are averaging 1.50 goals per game, with 1.50 conceded. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
Ostersunds FK's home record at Jämtkraft Arena: 5W 4D 1L from 10 Superettan appearances (1.90 PPG). They are averaging 2.00 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. Both teams have scored in 80% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Utsikten's overall Superettan record this term: 2W 4D 4L from 10 games (1.00 PPG). Last five: D W L D W. Their scoring rate of 0.90 per game is modest, conceding 1.50 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation.
Utsikten's away record: 4W 1D 5L from 10 road trips in Superettan this season (1.30 PPG). Away from home they average 1.00 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game. 4 clean sheets from 10 away games (40%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 20% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel.
The points-per-game gap of 0.50 in Ostersunds FK's favour (1.50 vs 1.00) is a statistically meaningful difference. The hosts are the form pick here, with draw protection the sensible hedge given the away side's competitiveness.
H2H Analysis
The head-to-head record is closely matched — Ostersunds FK lead 0W to 2W over the last 4 encounters, with 2 draws, though neither side has established a commanding advantage.
Attacking output has been a hallmark of this fixture. At 3.0 goals per game across 4 meetings, the Over 2.5 has a statistically grounded case from the head-to-head record alone. The most recent clash, on 2 Sep 2023, ended 0–0 with a draw.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading & In-Play
Ostersunds FK — key trading statistics (60 games, 30 at home): they score before half-time in 63% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 82% of the time; BTTS occurs in 63% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (home games).
Utsikten — key trading statistics (60 games, 30 at away): they score before half-time in 63% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 83% of the time; BTTS occurs in 43% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 47% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Ostersunds FK 58% versus Utsikten 53%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Ostersunds FK 43% | Utsikten 52%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Ostersunds FK 1.36 xG and Utsikten 1.34 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Ostersunds FK attack 1.026 / defence 1.273 | Utsikten attack 1.034 / defence 1.022. League average goals — home 1.296 / away 1.016. Data: 42 Ostersunds FK games / 42 Utsikten games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Ostersunds FK 38% | Draw 26% | Utsikten 37%. Fair-value odds: Ostersunds FK 2.63 | Draw 3.85 | Utsikten 2.70. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 26% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 51% | BTTS probability 55% | Total xG 2.70. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 51%/49% — the total xG of 2.70 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 55% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Picks & Verdict
Utsikten lead the H2H ledger, but Ostersunds FK carry stronger current form — do not let history alone dictate your assessment.
On the Poisson output, Ostersunds FK are the pick at 38% — marginal model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 26% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Ostersunds FK if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 37% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.70 combined xG gives a 51% probability to Over 2.5 — strong, supported by form averaging 2.8 goals per game and H2H averaging 3.0 goals per meeting.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 55%. Form rates are neutral: Ostersunds FK 80% | Utsikten 20%.
The outsider holds a 37% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Ostersunds FK vs Utsikten | Competition: Superettan, Regular Season - 13 | Venue: Jämtkraft Arena • Kick-off: Sunday 23 Jun 2024, 14:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Ostersunds FK 38% | Draw 26% | Utsikten 37% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 51% | BTTS 55% | xG Ostersunds FK 1.36 / Utsikten 1.34 • Poisson strength factors: Ostersunds FK attack 1.026 / def 1.273 | Utsikten attack 1.034 / def 1.022 | league avg home 1.296 / away 1.016 • Poisson stance: Ostersunds FK (38%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.36
Ostersunds FK xG
Expected Goals
1.34
Utsikten xG
55%
BTTS
75%
Over 1.5
51%
Over 2.5
29%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Ostersunds FK vs Utsikten kick off?
Ostersunds FK vs Utsikten kicked off at 14:00 on Sunday 23 June 2024 at Jämtkraft Arena.
What was the final score in Ostersunds FK vs Utsikten?
Ostersunds FK 1 - 0 Utsikten.
Where is Ostersunds FK vs Utsikten being played?
The match is being played at Jämtkraft Arena.
What competition is Ostersunds FK vs Utsikten part of?
Ostersunds FK vs Utsikten is a Regular Season - 13 fixture in the Superettan (Sweden).
Who is favourite to win Ostersunds FK vs Utsikten?
Our statistical model gives Ostersunds FK a 38% chance of winning, Utsikten a 37% chance, and a 26% chance of a draw — making Ostersunds FK the favourite.
Will both teams score in Ostersunds FK vs Utsikten?
Our model estimates a 55% probability that both Ostersunds FK and Utsikten will score (BTTS).
Will Ostersunds FK vs Utsikten have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 51%.
What is the head-to-head record between Ostersunds FK and Utsikten?
Record (4 meetings): Ostersunds FK 0W | Draws 2 | Utsikten 2W.
What form are Ostersunds FK and Utsikten in?
Ostersunds FK (all comps): 4W-3D-3L in 10 | 1.50 PPG | GF 1.50 / GA 1.50 | L5 W-L-W-L-W. Utsikten (all comps): 2W-4D-4L in 10 | 1.00 PPG | GF 0.90 / GA 1.50 | L5 D-W-L-D-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Ostersunds FK's attacking strength (1.03x league average) is weighed against Utsikten's defensive record (1.02x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.36. Flip it around — Utsikten's attack (1.03x) against Ostersunds FK's defence (1.27x) — and the away total comes out at 1.34.
These ratings are built from 42/42 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 13.9%. Close behind: 0-0 (8.3%), 2-1 (8.3%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 31% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Ostersunds FK Win
38%
2.66
26%
3.87
37%
2.73
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.3%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
9.2%
Home win
0 – 1
9.0%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.36
Ostersunds FK xG
Total xG
2.70
1.34
Utsikten xG
2.66
38%
Home win
3.87
26%
Draw
2.73
37%
Away win
Goals Markets
75%
Over 1.5
1.33
25%
Under 1.5
4.00
51%
Over 2.5
1.96
49%
Under 2.5
2.04
29%
Over 3.5
3.45
71%
Under 3.5
1.41
14%
Over 4.5
7.14
86%
Under 4.5
1.16
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
55%
BTTS Yes
1.82
45%
BTTS No
2.21
Clean Sheet
26%
3.81
26%
3.89
Win to Nil
10%
10.15
9%
10.63
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.7 | 9.0 | 6.0 | 2.7 | 0.9 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 9.2 | 12.3 | 8.2 | 3.7 | 1.2 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 6.2 | 8.3 | 5.6 | 2.5 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 2.8 | 3.8 | 2.5 | 1.1 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.0 | 1.3 | 0.9 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Ostersunds FK vs Utsikten?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.9%.
How many goals are Ostersunds FK and Utsikten expected to score?
The model projects 1.36 expected goals for Ostersunds FK and 1.34 for Utsikten, a combined total of 2.70.
How confident is the prediction model for Ostersunds FK vs Utsikten?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 38%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Ostersunds FK come into this having played 60 games, going 18W 22D 20L for 1.27 points per game. Their last five reads W-L-W-L-W.
On the other side, Utsikten sit at 1.53 PPG from 60 outings (26W 14D 20L), a run that reads D-W-L-D-W across their last five.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.27 PPG for Ostersunds FK against 1.53 for Utsikten. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
Home & Away Splits
Ostersunds FK's home form reads 12W 11D 7L across 30 games on their own ground, a 1.57 PPG return.
Away from home, Utsikten have taken 1.43 points per game from 30 outings (13W 4D 13L).
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Ostersunds FK are averaging 1.27 goals scored and 1.33 conceded per game recently; Utsikten are on 1.50 scored and 1.28 conceded.
Last 60 Results — Superettan
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Ostersunds FK
Current Season
Utsikten
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Ostersunds FK and Utsikten in coming into this match?
Ostersunds FK have gone 18W 22D 20L in their last 60 games (1.27 PPG), while Utsikten have gone 26W 14D 20L in their last 60 (1.53 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Ostersunds FK at home or Utsikten away?
Ostersunds FK's home record (1.57 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Ostersunds FK at home: 1.57 PPG; Utsikten away: 1.43 PPG.
Have Ostersunds FK or Utsikten been keeping clean sheets recently?
Ostersunds FK have kept a clean sheet in 27% of their recent games, Utsikten in 30%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 8 times since July 2022 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Superettan. They last met on 25 September 2025, roughly 10 months ago.
Records & Recent Trends
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Utsikten won 0-3 on 2 Jul 2022, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Ostersunds FK have gone 2W 0D 2L from 4 meetings on their own ground against Utsikten — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 8 Meetings
2
Ostersunds FK
2
Draws
4
Utsikten
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Ostersunds FK and Utsikten?
From 8 meetings on record, Ostersunds FK have won 2, Utsikten have won 4, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Ostersunds FK and Utsikten last play each other?
They last met on 25 September 2025, when Ostersunds FK 2-1 Utsikten.
Who has won more matches between Ostersunds FK and Utsikten?
Utsikten have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 8 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Ostersunds FK are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 63% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 37% of the time.
Utsikten are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 63% of their matches.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Ostersunds FK 63%, Utsikten 43% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 50% (Ostersunds FK) and 47% (Utsikten).
On the defensive side: Utsikten in 33%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Ostersunds FK home games / Utsikten away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Ostersunds FK play Utsikten?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 63% of Ostersunds FK's recent matches and 43% of Utsikten's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Ostersunds FK vs Utsikten usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 50% of Ostersunds FK's recent games and 47% of Utsikten's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Ostersunds FK and Utsikten tend to score early?
Ostersunds FK have had a goal before half-time in 63% of their recent matches, Utsikten in 63% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Ostersunds FK edge out Utsikten 1-0.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Ostersunds FK beat Utsikten 1-0 at Jämtkraft Arena, Regular Season - 13, in the Superettan. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Ostersunds FK 1.36 xG and Utsikten 1.34 xG, a combined 2.70. The scoreboard read 1-0 for 1 actual goal. Utsikten landed 1.3 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Ostersunds FK attack 1.03 / defence 1.27 against Utsikten attack 1.03 / defence 1.02, drawn from 42/42 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Ostersunds FK 38% | Draw 26% | Utsikten 37%, with Ostersunds FK to win its most likely call at 38%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 51%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 75% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 55% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 48% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Ostersunds FK 43%, Utsikten 52%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 56%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Ostersunds FK's trading profile (60 games, 30 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 58% of their matches — today it did not.
Utsikten's trading profile (60 games, 30 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 53% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 30% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Ostersunds FK 1.27 PPG, Utsikten 1.53 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Ostersunds FK win broke the near-deadlock. Ostersunds FK (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.27 average — tighter than their form line. Utsikten (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.27 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.