Varbergs BoIS FC 4-3 Gefle IF – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Varbergs BoIS FC at 43%, yet other data sources diverge — this Varbergs BoIS FC vs Gefle IF fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Varbergs BoIS FC and Gefle IF meet at Varberg Energi Arena in Superettan, Regular Season - 13. This fixture gets under way on Sunday 23 June 2024 at 16:00 UTC.
Form & Momentum
Varbergs BoIS FC have collected 1.30 PPG across 10 Superettan outings this season: 4W 1D 5L. Last five: L L W W W. Offensively they are averaging 1.50 goals per game, with 2.40 conceded. However, 2.40 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches — an extremely high rate that makes BTTS Yes a well-supported standalone angle from their form alone. Varbergs BoIS FC haven't played a Superettan game yet this season, so this record is entirely from last season.
In front of their own supporters this season, Varbergs BoIS FC have posted 2W 4D 4L at Varberg Energi Arena — 1.00 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.00 goals scored and 2.00 conceded per game.
Gefle IF (all games): 1W 6D 3L across 10 Superettan outings this term — 0.90 points per game. Last five: L D D D D. Their scoring rate of 1.00 per game is modest, conceding 1.80 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation.
Gefle IF's form when playing away from home: 1W 5D 4L across 10 road games this term (0.80 PPG). Away from home they average 0.90 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
A near-identical PPG reading — 1.30 for Varbergs BoIS FC, 0.90 for Gefle IF — means the form record is uninstructive on result selection. The goals and market sections will carry greater evidential weight.
Trading & In-Play
Varbergs BoIS FC — key trading statistics (30 games, 15 at home): they score before half-time in 67% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 71% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 57% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 40% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 53% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 37%; they fail to score in 37% of games.
Gefle IF — key trading statistics (30 games, 15 at away): they score before half-time in 60% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 78% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 56% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 60% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 47% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Varbergs BoIS FC 53% versus Gefle IF 57%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Varbergs BoIS FC 60% | Gefle IF 50%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Varbergs BoIS FC 1.50 xG and Gefle IF 1.25 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Varbergs BoIS FC attack 0.895 / defence 1.360 | Gefle IF attack 0.933 / defence 1.261. League average goals — home 1.334 / away 0.988. Gefle IF bring a strong defensive rating of 1.261 — this is suppressing Varbergs BoIS FC's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 12 Varbergs BoIS FC games / 42 Gefle IF games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Varbergs BoIS FC 43% | Draw 25% | Gefle IF 32%. Fair-value odds: Varbergs BoIS FC 2.33 | Draw 4.00 | Gefle IF 3.12. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 25% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 52% | BTTS probability 56% | Total xG 2.76. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 52%/48% — the total xG of 2.76 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 56% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, Varbergs BoIS FC are the pick at 43% — marginal model lean. Draw probability of 25% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Varbergs BoIS FC if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 32% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.76 combined xG gives a 52% probability to Over 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 56%. Form rates corroborate: Varbergs BoIS FC 50% | Gefle IF 60% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 32% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Varbergs BoIS FC vs Gefle IF | Competition: Superettan, Regular Season - 13 | Venue: Varberg Energi Arena • Kick-off: Sunday 23 Jun 2024, 16:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Varbergs BoIS FC 43% | Draw 25% | Gefle IF 32% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 52% | BTTS 56% | xG Varbergs BoIS FC 1.50 / Gefle IF 1.25 • Poisson strength factors: Varbergs BoIS FC attack 0.895 / def 1.360 | Gefle IF attack 0.933 / def 1.261 | league avg home 1.334 / away 0.988 • Poisson stance: Varbergs BoIS FC (43%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.50
Varbergs BoIS FC xG
Expected Goals
1.25
Gefle IF xG
56%
BTTS
76%
Over 1.5
52%
Over 2.5
30%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Varbergs BoIS FC vs Gefle IF kick off?
Varbergs BoIS FC vs Gefle IF kicked off at 16:00 on Sunday 23 June 2024 at Varberg Energi Arena.
What was the final score in Varbergs BoIS FC vs Gefle IF?
Varbergs BoIS FC 4 - 3 Gefle IF.
Where is Varbergs BoIS FC vs Gefle IF being played?
The match is being played at Varberg Energi Arena.
What competition is Varbergs BoIS FC vs Gefle IF part of?
Varbergs BoIS FC vs Gefle IF is a Regular Season - 13 fixture in the Superettan (Sweden).
Who is favourite to win Varbergs BoIS FC vs Gefle IF?
Our statistical model gives Varbergs BoIS FC a 43% chance of winning, Gefle IF a 32% chance, and a 25% chance of a draw — making Varbergs BoIS FC the favourite.
Will both teams score in Varbergs BoIS FC vs Gefle IF?
Our model estimates a 56% probability that both Varbergs BoIS FC and Gefle IF will score (BTTS).
Will Varbergs BoIS FC vs Gefle IF have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 52%.
What is the head-to-head record between Varbergs BoIS FC and Gefle IF?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Varbergs BoIS FC and Gefle IF in?
Varbergs BoIS FC (all comps): 4W-1D-5L in 10 | 1.30 PPG | GF 1.50 / GA 2.40 | L5 L-L-W-W-W. Gefle IF (all comps): 1W-6D-3L in 10 | 0.90 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 1.80 | L5 L-D-D-D-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
The model rates Varbergs BoIS FC's attack at 0.90x the league average against Gefle IF's defence at 1.26x — combine the two and it projects 1.50 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Gefle IF's attack (0.93x) against Varbergs BoIS FC's defence (1.36x) — and the away total comes out at 1.25.
These ratings are built from 12/42 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 13.5% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 2-1 (9.0%), 1-0 (8.0%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 30% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Varbergs BoIS FC Win
43%
2.32
25%
3.96
32%
3.16
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.0%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
9.5%
Home win
2 – 1
9.0%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.50
Varbergs BoIS FC xG
Total xG
2.76
1.25
Gefle IF xG
2.32
43%
Home win
3.96
25%
Draw
3.16
32%
Away win
Goals Markets
76%
Over 1.5
1.32
24%
Under 1.5
4.17
52%
Over 2.5
1.92
48%
Under 2.5
2.08
30%
Over 3.5
3.33
70%
Under 3.5
1.43
15%
Over 4.5
6.67
85%
Under 4.5
1.18
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
56%
BTTS Yes
1.80
44%
BTTS No
2.25
Clean Sheet
29%
3.50
22%
4.50
Win to Nil
12%
8.13
7%
14.23
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.3 | 7.9 | 5.0 | 2.1 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 9.5 | 12.0 | 7.5 | 3.1 | 1.0 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 7.2 | 9.0 | 5.6 | 2.4 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 3.6 | 4.5 | 2.8 | 1.2 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.4 | 1.7 | 1.1 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.4 | 0.5 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Varbergs BoIS FC vs Gefle IF?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.5%.
How many goals are Varbergs BoIS FC and Gefle IF expected to score?
The model projects 1.50 expected goals for Varbergs BoIS FC and 1.25 for Gefle IF, a combined total of 2.76.
How confident is the prediction model for Varbergs BoIS FC vs Gefle IF?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 43%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Varbergs BoIS FC's recent record stands at 9W 7D 14L from 30 games, a 1.13 PPG return, with L-L-W-W-W in the last five. Varbergs BoIS FC haven't played enough this season for a current-season-only sample, so this includes results carried over from last season.
Gefle IF, meanwhile, have gone 9W 10D 11L across 30 games — 1.23 PPG, with L-D-D-D-D in their last five.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.13 PPG for Varbergs BoIS FC against 1.23 for Gefle IF. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
How They Fare by Venue
At home specifically, Varbergs BoIS FC have managed 5W 5D 5L from 15 games — 1.33 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Gefle IF's away record stands at 2W 6D 7L across 15 trips, a 0.80 PPG haul. That's a step down from their 1.23 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Gefle IF's season.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Varbergs BoIS FC come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
Varbergs BoIS FC are averaging 1.13 goals scored and 1.87 conceded per game recently; Gefle IF are on 1.20 scored and 1.50 conceded.
Last 30 Results — Superettan
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Varbergs BoIS FC
Pre-Season
Gefle IF
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Varbergs BoIS FC and Gefle IF in coming into this match?
Varbergs BoIS FC have gone 9W 7D 14L in their last 30 games (1.13 PPG), while Gefle IF have gone 9W 10D 11L in their last 30 (1.23 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Varbergs BoIS FC at home or Gefle IF away?
Varbergs BoIS FC's home record (1.33 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Varbergs BoIS FC at home: 1.33 PPG; Gefle IF away: 0.80 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 2 times that we have on record, stretching back to June 2024 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 1 year. Every recorded meeting has come in Superettan. It has been a while since the last meeting — 10 August 2024, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Last 2 Meetings
2
Varbergs BoIS FC
0
Draws
0
Gefle IF
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Varbergs BoIS FC and Gefle IF?
From 2 meetings on record, Varbergs BoIS FC have won 2, Gefle IF have won 0, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Varbergs BoIS FC and Gefle IF last play each other?
They last met on 10 August 2024, when Gefle IF 0-4 Varbergs BoIS FC.
Who has won more matches between Varbergs BoIS FC and Gefle IF?
Varbergs BoIS FC have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from 2 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Varbergs BoIS FC are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 40% of the time.
Gefle IF are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 60% of their matches.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Varbergs BoIS FC 40%, Gefle IF 60% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 53% (Varbergs BoIS FC) and 47% (Gefle IF).
On the defensive side: Varbergs BoIS FC keep a clean sheet in 33% of their matches; Varbergs BoIS FC have failed to score in 40% of games; Gefle IF in 33%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Varbergs BoIS FC home games / Gefle IF away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Varbergs BoIS FC play Gefle IF?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 40% of Varbergs BoIS FC's recent matches and 60% of Gefle IF's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Varbergs BoIS FC vs Gefle IF usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 53% of Varbergs BoIS FC's recent games and 47% of Gefle IF's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Varbergs BoIS FC and Gefle IF tend to score early?
Varbergs BoIS FC have had a goal before half-time in 67% of their recent matches, Gefle IF in 60% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Varbergs BoIS FC edge out Gefle IF 4-3.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Varbergs BoIS FC beat Gefle IF 4-3 at Varberg Energi Arena, Regular Season - 13, in the Superettan. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Varbergs BoIS FC 1.50 xG and Gefle IF 1.25 xG, a combined 2.76. The scoreboard read 4-3 for 7 actual goals. Varbergs BoIS FC beat their projection by 2.5 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Gefle IF outscored their 1.25 projection by 1.7. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Varbergs BoIS FC attack 0.90 / defence 1.36 against Gefle IF attack 0.93 / defence 1.26, drawn from 12/42 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Varbergs BoIS FC 43% | Draw 25% | Gefle IF 32%, with Varbergs BoIS FC to win its most likely call at 43%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 52%. The game delivered 7, so it went over — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 76% and landed. Over 3.5 was 30% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 56% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 55% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Varbergs BoIS FC 60%, Gefle IF 50%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 55%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Varbergs BoIS FC's trading profile (30 games, 15 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 53% of their matches — today it did.
Gefle IF's trading profile (30 games, 15 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 57% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Varbergs BoIS FC 1.13 PPG, Gefle IF 1.23 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Varbergs BoIS FC win broke the near-deadlock. Varbergs BoIS FC (home/away splits) scored 4 against a 1.13 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 3 against a 1.53 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Gefle IF (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 0.87 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 4 against a 1.40 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The data earned its keep here, calling the bulk of the fixture correctly.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.