Orgryte IS 2-2 IK brage – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Orgryte IS at 54%, yet other data sources diverge — this Orgryte IS vs IK brage fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Superettan encounter, Regular Season - 20 sees IK brage travel to Gamla Ullevi to take on Orgryte IS. The game is scheduled for Saturday 23 August 2025, 14:00 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Superettan games this season, Orgryte IS have gone 6W 2D 2L from 10 outings — a 2.00 PPG return. Last five: W W W D W. They are averaging 2.20 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. This season is still relatively young for Orgryte IS, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Orgryte IS at Gamla Ullevi this season: 7W 2D 1L from 10 home games — 2.30 PPG on home soil. They are averaging 2.60 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. 6 clean sheets from 10 home games (60%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Gamla Ullevi. At home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle.
Looking at all fixtures this season, IK brage stand at 4W 5D 1L from 10 Superettan matches — 1.70 PPG. Last five: D D W W W. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.40 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 90% of their matches this season — one of the stronger BTTS rates in the division, making Yes a well-evidenced play. This season is still relatively young for IK brage, so this record blends games from this season and last.
IK brage away from home this season: 5W 4D 1L from 10 away games — 1.90 PPG on the road. They are averaging 1.90 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. 4 clean sheets from 10 away games (40%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road.
The form comparison is too close to call — 2.00 PPG (Orgryte IS) versus 1.70 (IK brage). When the figures are this level, no pick can be reliably derived from recent results alone.
Head to Head
The rivalry is an even one: 3 wins apiece for Orgryte IS, 4 for IK brage and 2 shared spoils from 9 past contests. Neither side holds a meaningful historical edge.
Goals have been a feature of this fixture. The last 9 meetings have averaged 3.4 per game — a rate that gives the Over 2.5 market a solid historical foundation. The most recent clash, on 15 Jun 2025, ended 2–3 with IK brage winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.4 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
In-Play Profile
Orgryte IS in-play tendencies (49 games, 25 at home): they score before half-time in 80% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 64% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 54% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 60% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 72% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 39%.
IK brage in-play tendencies (49 games, 25 at away): they score before half-time in 56% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 86% of the time; BTTS occurs in 48% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 36% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Orgryte IS 65% versus IK brage 49%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Orgryte IS 61% | IK brage 43%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Orgryte IS 2.03 xG and IK brage 1.29 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Orgryte IS attack 1.494 / defence 0.745 | IK brage attack 1.347 / defence 0.997. League average goals — home 1.366 / away 1.283. Orgryte IS carry an above-average attack strength of 1.494 — their λ of 2.03 reflects genuine attacking quality above the league norm. IK brage have an above-average attack strength of 1.347 — the away xG of 1.29 is driven by genuine attacking quality on the road. Orgryte IS's defence rating of 0.745 is below average — the home backline is amplifying the visitor's projected output. Data: 49 Orgryte IS games / 49 IK brage games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Orgryte IS 54% | Draw 22% | IK brage 24%. Fair-value odds: Orgryte IS 1.85 | Draw 4.55 | IK brage 4.17. Orgryte IS hold a narrow Poisson edge at 54% — the draw (22%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 64% | BTTS probability 63% | Total xG 3.32. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 64% — the 3.32 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 63% reflects that both xG figures (2.03 / 1.29) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Orgryte IS as the most likely outcome at 54% — moderate model lean. With a 22% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Orgryte IS offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
On the goals line, Poisson's 3.32 combined xG gives a 64% probability to Over 2.5 — strong, supported by form averaging 3.2 goals per game and H2H averaging 3.4 goals per meeting.
Poisson assigns a 63% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. This conflicts with form data: Orgryte IS 30% | IK brage 50% from recent games — a notable divergence.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Orgryte IS vs IK brage | Competition: Superettan, Regular Season - 20 | Venue: Gamla Ullevi • Kick-off: Saturday 23 Aug 2025, 14:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Orgryte IS 54% | Draw 22% | IK brage 24% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 64% | BTTS 63% | xG Orgryte IS 2.03 / IK brage 1.29 • Poisson strength factors: Orgryte IS attack 1.494 / def 0.745 | IK brage attack 1.347 / def 0.997 | league avg home 1.366 / away 1.283 • Poisson stance: Orgryte IS (54%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
2.03
Orgryte IS xG
Expected Goals
1.29
IK brage xG
63%
BTTS
85%
Over 1.5
64%
Over 2.5
42%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Orgryte IS vs IK brage kick off?
Orgryte IS vs IK brage kicked off at 14:00 on Saturday 23 August 2025 at Gamla Ullevi.
What was the final score in Orgryte IS vs IK brage?
Orgryte IS 2 - 2 IK brage.
Where is Orgryte IS vs IK brage being played?
The match is being played at Gamla Ullevi.
What competition is Orgryte IS vs IK brage part of?
Orgryte IS vs IK brage is a Regular Season - 20 fixture in the Superettan (Sweden).
Who is favourite to win Orgryte IS vs IK brage?
Our statistical model gives Orgryte IS a 54% chance of winning, IK brage a 24% chance, and a 22% chance of a draw — making Orgryte IS the favourite.
Will both teams score in Orgryte IS vs IK brage?
Our model estimates a 63% probability that both Orgryte IS and IK brage will score (BTTS).
Will Orgryte IS vs IK brage have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 64%.
What is the head-to-head record between Orgryte IS and IK brage?
Record (9 meetings): Orgryte IS 3W | Draws 2 | IK brage 4W.
What form are Orgryte IS and IK brage in?
Orgryte IS (all comps): 6W-2D-2L in 10 | 2.00 PPG | GF 2.20 / GA 1.20 | L5 W-W-W-D-W. IK brage (all comps): 4W-5D-1L in 10 | 1.70 PPG | GF 2.40 / GA 1.80 | L5 D-D-W-W-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
The model rates Orgryte IS's attack at 1.49x the league average against IK brage's defence at 1.00x — combine the two and it projects 2.03 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, IK brage's attack versus Orgryte IS's defence, projects 1.29 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 49/49 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 10.7% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 2-1 (9.6%), 2-0 (7.5%). Together the top three scorelines make up 28% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Orgryte IS Win
54%
1.84
22%
4.54
24%
4.23
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
2 – 1
9.6%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
9.5%
Draw
2 – 0
7.5%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
2.03
Orgryte IS xG
Total xG
3.32
1.29
IK brage xG
1.84
54%
Home win
4.54
22%
Draw
4.23
24%
Away win
Goals Markets
84%
Over 1.5
1.19
16%
Under 1.5
6.25
64%
Over 2.5
1.56
36%
Under 2.5
2.78
42%
Over 3.5
2.38
58%
Under 3.5
1.72
24%
Over 4.5
4.17
76%
Under 4.5
1.32
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
63%
BTTS Yes
1.58
37%
BTTS No
2.72
Clean Sheet
28%
3.63
13%
7.64
Win to Nil
15%
6.67
3%
32.36
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 3.6 | 4.6 | 3.0 | 1.3 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 7.3 | 9.5 | 6.1 | 2.6 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 7.5 | 9.6 | 6.2 | 2.7 | 0.9 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 5.1 | 6.5 | 4.2 | 1.8 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 2.6 | 3.3 | 2.1 | 0.9 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 1.0 | 1.3 | 0.9 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Orgryte IS vs IK brage?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 10.7%.
How many goals are Orgryte IS and IK brage expected to score?
The model projects 2.03 expected goals for Orgryte IS and 1.29 for IK brage, a combined total of 3.32.
How confident is the prediction model for Orgryte IS vs IK brage?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 54%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Orgryte IS's recent record stands at 23W 13D 13L from 49 games, a 1.67 PPG return, with W-W-W-D-W in the last five. The sample for Orgryte IS is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
IK brage, meanwhile, have gone 18W 15D 16L across 49 games — 1.41 PPG, with D-D-W-W-W in their last five. The sample for IK brage is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: Orgryte IS on 1.67 PPG, IK brage on 1.41. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
At home specifically, Orgryte IS have managed 14W 5D 6L from 25 games — 1.88 PPG in front of their own supporters.
IK brage's away record stands at 9W 9D 7L across 25 trips, a 1.44 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Orgryte IS come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Orgryte IS are averaging 1.90 goals scored and 1.29 conceded per game recently; IK brage are on 1.29 scored and 1.16 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Orgryte IS have seen both teams score in 65% of their recent games.
Last 49 Results — Superettan
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Orgryte IS
Blended
IK brage
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Orgryte IS and IK brage in coming into this match?
Orgryte IS have gone 23W 13D 13L in their last 49 games (1.67 PPG), while IK brage have gone 18W 15D 16L in their last 49 (1.41 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Orgryte IS at home or IK brage away?
Orgryte IS's home record (1.88 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Orgryte IS at home: 1.88 PPG; IK brage away: 1.44 PPG.
Have Orgryte IS or IK brage been keeping clean sheets recently?
Orgryte IS have kept a clean sheet in 27% of their recent games, IK brage in 31%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Orgryte IS and IK brage runs to 10 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to June 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Superettan. They last met on 23 August 2025, roughly 12 months ago.
Digging Into the Numbers
The biggest gap between the sides came on 8 May 2022, when IK brage won 4-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Orgryte IS's record when hosting IK brage specifically: 1W 3D 1L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
3
Orgryte IS
3
Draws
4
IK brage
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Orgryte IS and IK brage?
From 10 meetings on record, Orgryte IS have won 3, IK brage have won 4, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Orgryte IS and IK brage last play each other?
They last met on 23 August 2025, when Orgryte IS 2-2 IK brage.
Who has won more matches between Orgryte IS and IK brage?
IK brage have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Orgryte IS are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 80% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 48% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 16% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
IK brage see a goal before the break in 56% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 16% of those situations.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Orgryte IS 60%, IK brage 48% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 72% (Orgryte IS) and 36% (IK brage).
On the defensive side: Orgryte IS keep a clean sheet in 32% of their matches; IK brage in 32%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Orgryte IS home games / IK brage away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Orgryte IS play IK brage?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 60% of Orgryte IS's recent matches and 48% of IK brage's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Orgryte IS vs IK brage usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 72% of Orgryte IS's recent games and 36% of IK brage's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Orgryte IS and IK brage tend to score early?
Orgryte IS have had a goal before half-time in 80% of their recent matches, IK brage in 56% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Orgryte IS and IK brage share the spoils in a 2-2 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at Gamla Ullevi, Regular Season - 20, as Orgryte IS and IK brage drew 2-2 in the Superettan. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Orgryte IS 2.03 xG and IK brage 1.29 xG, a combined 3.32. The scoreboard read 2-2 for 4 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Orgryte IS attack 1.49 / defence 0.74 against IK brage attack 1.35 / defence 1.00, drawn from 49/49 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Orgryte IS 54% | Draw 22% | IK brage 24%, with Orgryte IS to win its most likely call at 54%. Instead the game produced a draw, an outcome the model had rated at just 22% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 64%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 85% and landed. Over 3.5 was 42% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 63% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 52% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Orgryte IS 61%, IK brage 43%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 57%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Orgryte IS's trading profile (49 games, 25 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 65% of their matches — today it did.
IK brage's trading profile (49 games, 25 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 49% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 31% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Orgryte IS 1.67 PPG, IK brage 1.41 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. Orgryte IS (home/away splits) shipped 2 against a 1.16 concession average — a leakier day than usual. IK brage (home/away splits) shipped 2 against a 1.08 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.