Orebro SK 1-2 GIF Sundsvall – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates GIF Sundsvall at 46%, yet other data sources diverge — this Orebro SK vs GIF Sundsvall fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Behrn Arena plays host to Orebro SK versus GIF Sundsvall in Superettan, Regular Season - 8. Kick-off: Saturday 17 May 2025 at 14:00 UTC.
Form & Momentum
Orebro SK have collected 1.60 PPG across 10 Superettan outings this season: 4W 4D 2L. Last five: D W L W D. They are averaging 1.00 goals per game and conceding 0.80 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. Defensively, conceding just 0.80 per game is an exceptional defensive record — one of the tightest in the division. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base.
Orebro SK at Behrn Arena this season: 5W 4D 1L from 10 home games — 1.90 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.50 goals scored and 0.70 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground.
GIF Sundsvall's overall Superettan record this term: 6W 1D 3L from 10 games (1.90 PPG). Last five: D W W W W. They are scoring at 1.60 per game and conceding 1.10. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
GIF Sundsvall's form when playing away from home: 4W 2D 4L across 10 road games this term (1.40 PPG). Away from home they average 0.80 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game. 4 clean sheets from 10 away games (40%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel. Their away PPG of 1.40 is notably below their overall 1.90 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
A near-identical PPG reading — 1.60 for Orebro SK, 1.90 for GIF Sundsvall — means the form record is uninstructive on result selection. The goals and market sections will carry greater evidential weight.
Head-to-Head
Form and model data should carry more weight here — the historical record is too balanced to provide a directional steer. From 4 meetings: Orebro SK 1W, GIF Sundsvall 1W, 2D.
The 4 previous meetings have averaged 2.2 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 31 Aug 2024, ended 0–0 with a draw.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
Trading & In-Play
Orebro SK — key trading statistics (60 games, 30 at home): they score before half-time in 50% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 62% of the time; BTTS occurs in 43% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 40% of games (home games); they fail to score in 35% of games.
GIF Sundsvall — key trading statistics (60 games, 30 at away): they score before half-time in 77% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 79% of the time; BTTS occurs in 37% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 43% of games (away games); they fail to score in 35% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Orebro SK 53% versus GIF Sundsvall 48%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Orebro SK 57% | GIF Sundsvall 50%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Orebro SK 0.67 xG and GIF Sundsvall 1.10 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Orebro SK attack 0.642 / defence 1.046 | GIF Sundsvall attack 0.876 / defence 0.779. League average goals — home 1.343 / away 1.198. Orebro SK's attack strength of 0.642 is below the league average — the 0.67 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. GIF Sundsvall's defence strength of 0.779 is below average — they are conceding at a rate that inflates the home xG figure. Data: 37 Orebro SK games / 37 GIF Sundsvall games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Orebro SK 22% | Draw 32% | GIF Sundsvall 46%. Fair-value odds: Orebro SK 4.55 | Draw 3.12 | GIF Sundsvall 2.17. GIF Sundsvall hold a narrow Poisson edge at 46% — the draw (32%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 26% | BTTS probability 33% | Total xG 1.77. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 74% probability — total xG of 1.77 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS No has firm model support at 67% — Orebro SK's lower xG of 0.67 creates a meaningful probability of a scoring blank, which suppresses the BTTS Yes probability to 33%.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is GIF Sundsvall at 46% — moderate model lean. Draw probability of 32% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on GIF Sundsvall if the outright odds are short.
Poisson projects 1.77 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 26% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by form averaging 2.2 goals per game.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 33% on No. Form rates corroborate: Orebro SK 50% | GIF Sundsvall 30% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Orebro SK vs GIF Sundsvall | Competition: Superettan, Regular Season - 8 | Venue: Behrn Arena • Kick-off: Saturday 17 May 2025, 14:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Orebro SK 22% | Draw 32% | GIF Sundsvall 46% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 26% | BTTS 33% | xG Orebro SK 0.67 / GIF Sundsvall 1.10 • Poisson strength factors: Orebro SK attack 0.642 / def 1.046 | GIF Sundsvall attack 0.876 / def 0.779 | league avg home 1.343 / away 1.198 • Poisson stance: GIF Sundsvall (46%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
0.67
Orebro SK xG
Expected Goals
1.10
GIF Sundsvall xG
33%
BTTS
53%
Over 1.5
26%
Over 2.5
10%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Orebro SK vs GIF Sundsvall kick off?
Orebro SK vs GIF Sundsvall kicked off at 14:00 on Saturday 17 May 2025 at Behrn Arena.
What was the final score in Orebro SK vs GIF Sundsvall?
Orebro SK 1 - 2 GIF Sundsvall.
Where is Orebro SK vs GIF Sundsvall being played?
The match is being played at Behrn Arena.
What competition is Orebro SK vs GIF Sundsvall part of?
Orebro SK vs GIF Sundsvall is a Regular Season - 8 fixture in the Superettan (Sweden).
Who is favourite to win Orebro SK vs GIF Sundsvall?
Our statistical model gives Orebro SK a 22% chance of winning, GIF Sundsvall a 46% chance, and a 32% chance of a draw — making GIF Sundsvall the favourite.
Will both teams score in Orebro SK vs GIF Sundsvall?
Our model estimates a 33% probability that both Orebro SK and GIF Sundsvall will score (BTTS).
Will Orebro SK vs GIF Sundsvall have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 26%.
What is the head-to-head record between Orebro SK and GIF Sundsvall?
Record (4 meetings): Orebro SK 1W | Draws 2 | GIF Sundsvall 1W.
What form are Orebro SK and GIF Sundsvall in?
Orebro SK (all comps): 4W-4D-2L in 10 | 1.60 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 0.80 | L5 D-W-L-W-D. GIF Sundsvall (all comps): 6W-1D-3L in 10 | 1.90 PPG | GF 1.60 / GA 1.10 | L5 D-W-W-W-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
The model rates Orebro SK's attack at 0.64x the league average against GIF Sundsvall's defence at 0.78x — combine the two and it projects 0.67 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — GIF Sundsvall's attack (0.88x) against Orebro SK's defence (1.05x) — and the away total comes out at 1.10.
These ratings are built from 37/37 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 0-0 carries the highest individual probability at 18.7% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 0-1 (17.1%), 1-1 (14.2%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 50% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
GIF Sundsvall Win
22%
4.48
32%
3.11
46%
2.20
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 1
18.7%
Away win
Most likely
0 – 0
17.1%
Draw
1 – 1
12.6%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.67
Orebro SK xG
Total xG
1.77
1.10
GIF Sundsvall xG
4.48
22%
Home win
3.11
32%
Draw
2.20
46%
Away win
Goals Markets
53%
Over 1.5
1.89
47%
Under 1.5
2.13
26%
Over 2.5
3.85
74%
Under 2.5
1.35
10%
Over 3.5
10.00
90%
Under 3.5
1.11
3%
Over 4.5
33.33
97%
Under 4.5
1.03
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
33%
BTTS Yes
3.07
67%
BTTS No
1.48
Clean Sheet
33%
3.00
51%
1.96
Win to Nil
7%
13.42
23%
4.29
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 17.1 | 18.7 | 10.3 | 3.8 | 1.0 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 11.5 | 12.6 | 6.9 | 2.5 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 3.8 | 4.2 | 2.3 | 0.8 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 0.9 | 0.9 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 0.1 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
| 5 | – | – | – | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Orebro SK vs GIF Sundsvall?
Our Poisson model rates 0-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 18.7%.
How many goals are Orebro SK and GIF Sundsvall expected to score?
The model projects 0.67 expected goals for Orebro SK and 1.10 for GIF Sundsvall, a combined total of 1.77.
How confident is the prediction model for Orebro SK vs GIF Sundsvall?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 46%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Orebro SK's recent record stands at 18W 19D 23L from 60 games, a 1.22 PPG return, with D-W-L-W-D in the last five.
GIF Sundsvall, meanwhile, have gone 18W 15D 27L across 60 games — 1.15 PPG, with D-W-W-W-W in their last five.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.22 PPG for Orebro SK against 1.15 for GIF Sundsvall. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
Home & Away Splits
At home specifically, Orebro SK have managed 14W 11D 5L from 30 games — 1.77 PPG in front of their own supporters. That's noticeably better than their 1.22 PPG overall — Orebro SK are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
GIF Sundsvall's away record stands at 7W 6D 17L across 30 trips, a 0.90 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Orebro SK come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Orebro SK are averaging 1.33 goals scored and 1.35 conceded per game recently; GIF Sundsvall are on 1.12 scored and 1.58 conceded.
Last 60 Results — Superettan
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Orebro SK
Current Season
GIF Sundsvall
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Orebro SK and GIF Sundsvall in coming into this match?
Orebro SK have gone 18W 19D 23L in their last 60 games (1.22 PPG), while GIF Sundsvall have gone 18W 15D 27L in their last 60 (1.15 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Orebro SK at home or GIF Sundsvall away?
Orebro SK's home record (1.77 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Orebro SK at home: 1.77 PPG; GIF Sundsvall away: 0.90 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 8 times since July 2023 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Superettan. The two were last together as recently as 10 September 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Records & Recent Trends
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Orebro SK won 0-3 on 10 Sep 2026, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Orebro SK have gone 0W 1D 3L from 4 meetings on their own ground against GIF Sundsvall — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 8 Meetings
2
Orebro SK
3
Draws
3
GIF Sundsvall
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Orebro SK and GIF Sundsvall?
From 8 meetings on record, Orebro SK have won 2, GIF Sundsvall have won 3, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Orebro SK and GIF Sundsvall last play each other?
They last met on 10 September 2026, when GIF Sundsvall 0-3 Orebro SK.
Who has won more matches between Orebro SK and GIF Sundsvall?
GIF Sundsvall have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 8 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Orebro SK see a goal before the break in 50% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 30% of the time.
GIF Sundsvall are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 77% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 17% of those situations.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Orebro SK 43%, GIF Sundsvall 37% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 40% (Orebro SK) and 43% (GIF Sundsvall).
On the defensive side: Orebro SK keep a clean sheet in 40% of their matches; Orebro SK have failed to score in 37% of games; GIF Sundsvall in 53%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Orebro SK home games / GIF Sundsvall away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Orebro SK play GIF Sundsvall?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 43% of Orebro SK's recent matches and 37% of GIF Sundsvall's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Orebro SK vs GIF Sundsvall usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 40% of Orebro SK's recent games and 43% of GIF Sundsvall's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Orebro SK and GIF Sundsvall tend to score early?
Orebro SK have had a goal before half-time in 50% of their recent matches, GIF Sundsvall in 77% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as GIF Sundsvall edge out Orebro SK 1-2.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
GIF Sundsvall beat Orebro SK 1-2 at Behrn Arena, Regular Season - 8, in the Superettan. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Orebro SK 0.67 xG and GIF Sundsvall 1.10 xG, a combined 1.77. The scoreboard read 1-2 for 3 actual goals. GIF Sundsvall outscored their 1.10 projection by 0.9. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Orebro SK attack 0.64 / defence 1.05 against GIF Sundsvall attack 0.88 / defence 0.78, drawn from 37/37 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Orebro SK 22% | Draw 32% | GIF Sundsvall 46%, with GIF Sundsvall to win its most likely call at 46%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 26%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 53% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 33% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 53% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Orebro SK 57%, GIF Sundsvall 50%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 51%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Orebro SK's trading profile (60 games, 30 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 53% of their matches — today it did.
GIF Sundsvall's trading profile (60 games, 30 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 48% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Orebro SK 1.22 PPG, GIF Sundsvall 1.15 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the GIF Sundsvall win broke the near-deadlock. Orebro SK (home/away splits) shipped 2 against a 0.73 concession average — a leakier day than usual. GIF Sundsvall (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 0.90 average — above their attacking norm.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.