Oddevold vs IK brage – Pre-Match Analysis
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Poisson model favours Oddevold (57%) — form and H2H data both point in the same direction as Oddevold face IK brage.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Superettan clash, Regular Season - 29 as Oddevold welcome IK brage to Rimnersvallen. Kick-off is set for Friday 30 October 2026 at 18:00 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Superettan games this season, Oddevold have gone 5W 2D 3L from 10 outings — a 1.70 PPG return. Last five: W D L W L. They are averaging 1.30 goals per game and conceding 1.10 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Oddevold, so this record blends games from this season and last.
In front of their own supporters this season, Oddevold have posted 5W 2D 3L at Rimnersvallen — 1.70 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.60 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Looking at all fixtures this season, IK brage stand at 1W 3D 6L from 10 Superettan matches — 0.60 PPG. Last five: D D L W L. Their scoring rate of 1.10 per game is modest, conceding 2.00 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Conceding 2.00 per game is a high rate — their defensive vulnerabilities have been exposed regularly this season. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for IK brage, so this record blends games from this season and last.
IK brage's form when playing away from home: 0W 3D 7L across 10 road games this term (0.30 PPG). Away from home they average 1.00 goals scored and 2.20 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
Oddevold carry the stronger recent momentum — 1.10 PPG ahead of their opponents on 1.70 vs 0.60. The form data is a point in their favour, and where the price allows, it is the cleaner directional bet.
The BTTS market is worth targeting here. Oddevold register both teams scoring in 60% of relevant matches, IK brage in 60% (using home/away splits) — both sides above the 60% threshold gives BTTS Yes firm statistical grounding.
H2H
The historical ledger comes down firmly in favour of Oddevold: 4 wins from 5 previous clashes against 0 for IK brage, with 1 draws across those contests.
Goals have been a feature of this fixture. The last 5 meetings have averaged 3.8 per game — a rate that gives the Over 2.5 market a solid historical foundation. The most recent clash, on 12 Apr 2026, ended 4–3 with Oddevold winning.
From a betting standpoint, the H2H backs both Oddevold and goals. The home side's 4 wins from 5 meetings, combined with an average of 3.8 goals per game, gives the home win and Over 2.5 combination a historically grounded case.
Trading Patterns
Oddevold in-play and half-time data (57 games, 28 at home): they score before half-time in 75% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 56% of the time; BTTS occurs in 68% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 64% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 37%.
IK brage in-play and half-time data (57 games, 28 at away): they score before half-time in 68% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 85% of the time; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 57% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 47%.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Oddevold 60% and IK brage 65% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Oddevold 54% | IK brage 65%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Oddevold 1.94 xG and IK brage 1.03 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Oddevold attack 1.061 / defence 0.928 | IK brage attack 0.838 / defence 1.325. League average goals — home 1.379 / away 1.325. IK brage bring a strong defensive rating of 1.325 — this is suppressing Oddevold's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 57 Oddevold games / 57 IK brage games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Oddevold 57% | Draw 25% | IK brage 18%. Fair-value odds: Oddevold 1.75 | Draw 4.00 | IK brage 5.56. The model has a clear lean to Oddevold (57%) — a 39pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 57% | BTTS probability 57% | Total xG 2.97. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 57% — the 2.97 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS probability of 57% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Oddevold at 57% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 25% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
The Poisson model projects 2.97 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 57% — strong confidence, supported by form averaging 3.0 goals per game and H2H averaging 3.8 goals per meeting.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 57% on Yes. Form rates corroborate: Oddevold 60% | IK brage 60% BTTS from recent games.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Oddevold vs IK brage | Competition: Superettan, Regular Season - 29 | Venue: Rimnersvallen • Kick-off: Friday 30 Oct 2026, 18:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Oddevold 57% | Draw 25% | IK brage 18% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 57% | BTTS 57% | xG Oddevold 1.94 / IK brage 1.03 • Poisson strength factors: Oddevold attack 1.061 / def 0.928 | IK brage attack 0.838 / def 1.325 | league avg home 1.379 / away 1.325 • Poisson stance: Oddevold (57%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.94
Oddevold xG
Expected Goals
1.03
IK brage xG
57%
BTTS
81%
Over 1.5
57%
Over 2.5
35%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Oddevold vs IK brage kick off?
Oddevold vs IK brage is scheduled to kick off at 18:00 on Friday 30 October 2026 at Rimnersvallen.
Where is Oddevold vs IK brage being played?
The match is being played at Rimnersvallen.
What competition is Oddevold vs IK brage part of?
Oddevold vs IK brage is a Regular Season - 29 fixture in the Superettan (Sweden).
Who is favourite to win Oddevold vs IK brage?
Our statistical model gives Oddevold a 57% chance of winning, IK brage a 18% chance, and a 25% chance of a draw — making Oddevold the favourite.
Will both teams score in Oddevold vs IK brage?
Our model estimates a 57% probability that both Oddevold and IK brage will score (BTTS).
Will Oddevold vs IK brage have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 57%.
What is the head-to-head record between Oddevold and IK brage?
Record (5 meetings): Oddevold 4W | Draws 1 | IK brage 0W.
What form are Oddevold and IK brage in?
Oddevold (all comps): 5W-2D-3L in 10 | 1.70 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 1.10 | L5 W-D-L-W-L. IK brage (all comps): 1W-3D-6L in 10 | 0.60 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 2.00 | L5 D-D-L-W-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Working from Oddevold's attack rating (1.06) and IK brage's defence rating (1.32), the model arrives at 1.94 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, IK brage's attack versus Oddevold's defence, projects 1.03 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 57/57 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 11.6%. Close behind: 2-1 (9.9%), 2-0 (9.7%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 31% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Oddevold Win
57%
1.76
25%
4.00
18%
5.53
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
10.3%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
10.0%
Home win
2 – 1
9.9%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.94
Oddevold xG
Total xG
2.97
1.03
IK brage xG
1.76
57%
Home win
4.00
25%
Draw
5.53
18%
Away win
Goals Markets
80%
Over 1.5
1.25
20%
Under 1.5
5.00
57%
Over 2.5
1.75
43%
Under 2.5
2.33
35%
Over 3.5
2.86
65%
Under 3.5
1.54
18%
Over 4.5
5.56
82%
Under 4.5
1.22
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
57%
BTTS Yes
1.77
43%
BTTS No
2.31
Clean Sheet
36%
2.80
14%
6.94
Win to Nil
20%
4.92
3%
38.41
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.1 | 5.3 | 2.7 | 0.9 | 0.2 | – |
| 1 | 10.0 | 10.3 | 5.3 | 1.8 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 9.7 | 9.9 | 5.1 | 1.8 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 6.2 | 6.4 | 3.3 | 1.1 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 3.0 | 3.1 | 1.6 | 0.6 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 1.2 | 1.2 | 0.6 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Oddevold vs IK brage?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 11.6%.
How many goals are Oddevold and IK brage expected to score?
The model projects 1.94 expected goals for Oddevold and 1.03 for IK brage, a combined total of 2.97.
How confident is the prediction model for Oddevold vs IK brage?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 57%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Oddevold come into this having played 57 games, going 23W 18D 16L for 1.53 points per game. Their last five reads W-D-L-W-L. The sample for Oddevold is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, IK brage sit at 1.18 PPG from 57 outings (17W 16D 24L), a run that reads D-D-L-W-L across their last five. The sample for IK brage is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: Oddevold on 1.53 PPG, IK brage on 1.18. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
Oddevold's home form reads 11W 7D 10L across 28 games on their own ground, a 1.43 PPG return.
Away from home, IK brage have taken 1.21 points per game from 28 outings (9W 7D 12L).
The Goals Picture
Oddevold are averaging 1.46 goals scored and 1.28 conceded per game recently; IK brage are on 1.61 scored and 1.77 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: IK brage in 65%.
Defensively: Oddevold have kept a clean sheet in 37% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 57 Results — Superettan
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Oddevold
Blended
IK brage
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Oddevold and IK brage in coming into this match?
Oddevold have gone 23W 18D 16L in their last 57 games (1.53 PPG), while IK brage have gone 17W 16D 24L in their last 57 (1.18 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Oddevold at home or IK brage away?
Oddevold's home record (1.43 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Oddevold at home: 1.43 PPG; IK brage away: 1.21 PPG.
Have Oddevold or IK brage been keeping clean sheets recently?
Oddevold have kept a clean sheet in 37% of their recent games, IK brage in 16%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Oddevold and IK brage runs to 5 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to May 2024. Every recorded meeting has come in Superettan. They last met on 12 April 2026, roughly 6 months ago.
Digging Into the Numbers
There's a clear current trend here: Oddevold have taken the last 4 head-to-head results.
The biggest gap between the sides came on 13 Sep 2025, when Oddevold won 4-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Oddevold's record when hosting IK brage specifically: 1W 1D 0L from 2 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 5 Meetings
4
Oddevold
1
Draws
0
IK brage
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Oddevold and IK brage?
From 5 meetings on record, Oddevold have won 4, IK brage have won 0, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Oddevold and IK brage last play each other?
They last met on 12 April 2026, when IK brage 3-4 Oddevold.
Who has won more matches between Oddevold and IK brage?
Oddevold have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 5 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Oddevold are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 75% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 36% of the time.
IK brage are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 68% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 11% of those situations.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Oddevold 68%, IK brage 50% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 64% for Oddevold and 57% for IK brage. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 36% and 39% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: IK brage in 29%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Oddevold home games / IK brage away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Oddevold play IK brage?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 68% of Oddevold's games and 50% of IK brage's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Oddevold vs IK brage usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 64% of Oddevold's matches and 57% of IK brage's.
Do Oddevold and IK brage tend to score early?
Oddevold have had a goal before half-time in 75% of their recent matches, IK brage in 68% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
The match report will be available once the game has finished.