Landskrona BoIS 1-0 Ljungskile SK – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Landskrona BoIS at 47% — neither recent form nor the head-to-head data gives a clear steer either way as Landskrona BoIS face Ljungskile SK.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
Landskrona BoIS welcome Ljungskile SK to Landskrona Idrottsplats in Superettan (matchday 3). Kick-off is Saturday 18 April 2026 at 16:00 UK time.
Form Guide
Landskrona BoIS — last 10 games: 3W 3D 4L, averaging 1.20 points per game. Last five: W L W D L. They are averaging 1.00 goals per game and conceding 1.80 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings (20%). Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
In front of their own supporters, Landskrona BoIS have posted 4W 2D 4L from their last 10 home games — 1.40 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.20 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Landskrona BoIS 1.57 xG and Ljungskile SK 1.15 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Landskrona BoIS attack 0.924 / defence 1.103 | Ljungskile SK attack 0.856 / defence 1.030. League average goals — home 1.646 / away 1.218. Data: built from Landskrona BoIS's last 32 games and Ljungskile SK's last 2. Some of those games are older results, so treat these probabilities as directional rather than precise.
Result probabilities: Landskrona BoIS 47% | Draw 25% | Ljungskile SK 28%. Fair-value odds: Landskrona BoIS 2.13 | Draw 3.99 | Ljungskile SK 3.58. Landskrona BoIS hold a narrow Poisson edge at 47% — the draw (25%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 51% | BTTS Yes probability 54% | Total xG 2.72. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 51%/49% — the total xG of 2.72 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS Yes at 54% is only a slight lean — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Landskrona BoIS are the pick at 47% — moderate model lean. With a 25% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Landskrona BoIS offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 28% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 2.72 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 51% probability — a Poisson-only call with no corroboration from form or H2H.
The Poisson model's sample (Landskrona BoIS 32 games, Ljungskile SK 2) includes some older results, so its projections carry extra uncertainty — weight recent form and the odds accordingly.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Landskrona BoIS vs Ljungskile SK | Competition: Superettan, matchday 3 | Venue: Landskrona Idrottsplats • Kick-off: Saturday 18 April 2026 at 16:00 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Landskrona BoIS 47% | Draw 25% | Ljungskile SK 28% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 51% (Under 49%) | BTTS Yes 54% (No 46%) | xG Landskrona BoIS 1.57 / Ljungskile SK 1.15 • Poisson strength factors: Landskrona BoIS attack 0.924 / def 1.103 | Ljungskile SK attack 0.856 / def 1.030 | league avg home 1.646 / away 1.218 • Poisson stance: Landskrona BoIS (47%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.57
Landskrona BoIS xG
Expected Goals
1.15
Ljungskile SK xG
54%
BTTS
75%
Over 1.5
51%
Over 2.5
29%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Landskrona BoIS vs Ljungskile SK FAQs
What time does Landskrona BoIS vs Ljungskile SK kick off?
Landskrona BoIS vs Ljungskile SK kicked off at 16:00 UK time on Saturday 18 April 2026 at Landskrona Idrottsplats.
What was the final score in Landskrona BoIS vs Ljungskile SK?
Landskrona BoIS 1 - 0 Ljungskile SK.
Where is Landskrona BoIS vs Ljungskile SK being played?
The match is being played at Landskrona Idrottsplats.
What competition is Landskrona BoIS vs Ljungskile SK part of?
Landskrona BoIS vs Ljungskile SK is a Superettan fixture (matchday 3) (Sweden).
Who is favourite to win Landskrona BoIS vs Ljungskile SK?
Our statistical model gives Landskrona BoIS a 47% chance of winning, Ljungskile SK a 28% chance, and a 25% chance of a draw — making Landskrona BoIS the favourite.
Will both teams score in Landskrona BoIS vs Ljungskile SK?
Our model estimates a 54% probability that both Landskrona BoIS and Ljungskile SK will score, so it leans towards BTTS Yes.
Will Landskrona BoIS vs Ljungskile SK have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 51%, so it leans towards over 2.5 goals.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Landskrona BoIS's attacking strength (0.92x league average) is weighed against Ljungskile SK's defensive record (1.03x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.57. The same calculation in reverse, Ljungskile SK's attack versus Landskrona BoIS's defence, projects 1.15 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from Landskrona BoIS's last 32 games and Ljungskile SK's last 2, a sample that still includes some older results.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 13.5%. Close behind: 2-1 (9.3%), 1-0 (8.8%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 32% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Landskrona BoIS Win
47%
2.13
25%
3.99
28%
3.58
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.9%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
10.4%
Home win
2 – 1
9.3%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.57
Landskrona BoIS xG
Total xG
2.72
1.15
Ljungskile SK xG
2.13
47%
Home win
3.99
25%
Draw
3.58
28%
Away win
Goals Markets
75%
Over 1.5
1.33
25%
Under 1.5
4.00
51%
Over 2.5
1.96
49%
Under 2.5
2.04
29%
Over 3.5
3.45
71%
Under 3.5
1.41
14%
Over 4.5
7.14
86%
Under 4.5
1.16
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
54%
BTTS Yes
1.85
46%
BTTS No
2.18
Clean Sheet
32%
3.16
21%
4.79
Win to Nil
15%
6.72
6%
17.16
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.6 | 7.6 | 4.4 | 1.7 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 10.4 | 11.9 | 6.8 | 2.6 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 8.1 | 9.3 | 5.4 | 2.1 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 4.2 | 4.9 | 2.8 | 1.1 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.7 | 1.9 | 1.1 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.5 | 0.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Landskrona BoIS vs Ljungskile SK Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Landskrona BoIS vs Ljungskile SK?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.5%.
How many goals are Landskrona BoIS and Ljungskile SK expected to score?
The model projects 1.57 expected goals for Landskrona BoIS and 1.15 for Ljungskile SK, a combined total of 2.72.
How confident is the prediction model for Landskrona BoIS vs Ljungskile SK?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 47%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
Last 0 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Landskrona BoIS
Pre-Season
Ljungskile SK
Pre-Season
No results found.
No results found.
Landskrona BoIS (Home) vs Ljungskile SK (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Landskrona BoIS
Pre-Season
Ljungskile SK
Pre-Season
No results found for this venue split.
No results found for this venue split.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The head-to-head numbers here are drawn from the 2 H2H matches in our data, going back to April 2026. All of them came in Superettan. The most recent was as recently as 7 November 2026, so it is a fresh reference point.
Last 2 Meetings
1
Landskrona BoIS
1
Draws
0
Ljungskile SK
Recent Meetings
❓ Landskrona BoIS vs Ljungskile SK H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Landskrona BoIS and Ljungskile SK?
Across the 2 head-to-head matches in our data, Landskrona BoIS have won 1, Ljungskile SK have won 0, and 1 has been drawn.
When did Landskrona BoIS and Ljungskile SK last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 7 November 2026: Ljungskile SK 1-1 Landskrona BoIS.
Who has won more matches between Landskrona BoIS and Ljungskile SK?
Landskrona BoIS have the better head-to-head record, with 1 wins from the 2 head-to-head matches in our data.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Landskrona BoIS home games / Ljungskile SK away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
Prediction vindicated as Landskrona BoIS edge out Ljungskile SK 1-0.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Landskrona BoIS beat Ljungskile SK 1-0 at Landskrona Idrottsplats, Regular Season - 3, in the Superettan. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Landskrona BoIS 1.57 xG and Ljungskile SK 1.15 xG, a combined 2.72. The scoreboard read 1-0 for 1 actual goal. Ljungskile SK landed 1.1 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Landskrona BoIS attack 0.92 / defence 1.10 against Ljungskile SK attack 0.86 / defence 1.03, drawn from 32/2 games (Blended).
On the result, the model split it Landskrona BoIS 47% | Draw 25% | Ljungskile SK 28%, with Landskrona BoIS to win its most likely call at 47%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 51%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 75% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 54% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.