Sandviken 0-1 IFK Varnamo – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Sandviken at 77%, yet other data sources diverge — this Sandviken vs IFK Varnamo fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Jernvallen plays host to Sandviken versus IFK Varnamo in Superettan, Regular Season - 3. Kick-off: Saturday 18 April 2026 at 13:00 UTC.
Form & Momentum
Sandviken have collected 1.70 PPG across 10 Superettan outings this season: 5W 2D 3L. Last five: D D W W W. Offensively they are averaging 1.50 goals per game, with 1.30 conceded. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation.
In front of their own supporters this season, Sandviken have posted 5W 1D 4L at Jernvallen — 1.60 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.90 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
IFK Varnamo (all games): 3W 6D 1L across 10 Superettan outings this term — 1.50 points per game. Last five: L W D D W. Their scoring rate of 1.00 per game is modest, conceding 0.70 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Defensively, 0.70 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not. IFK Varnamo haven't played a Superettan game yet this season, so this record is entirely from last season.
When travelling in Superettan this season, IFK Varnamo have posted 1W 6D 3L from 10 away outings — 0.90 PPG. Away from home they average 0.70 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game. Their away PPG of 0.90 is notably below their overall 1.50 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
A near-identical PPG reading — 1.70 for Sandviken, 1.50 for IFK Varnamo — means the form record is uninstructive on result selection. The goals and market sections will carry greater evidential weight.
Trading
Sandviken half-time and goal-timing data (32 games, 16 at home): they score before half-time in 81% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 71% of the time; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 56% of games (home games); they fail to score in 41% of games.
IFK Varnamo half-time and goal-timing data (32 games, 16 at away): they score before half-time in 69% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 62% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 44% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 31% of games (away games); they fail to score in 31% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Sandviken 50% versus IFK Varnamo 47%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Sandviken 62% | IFK Varnamo 41%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Sandviken 2.89 xG and IFK Varnamo 0.93 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Sandviken attack 1.072 / defence 1.086 | IFK Varnamo attack 0.701 / defence 1.577. League average goals — home 1.709 / away 1.216. IFK Varnamo bring a strong defensive rating of 1.577 — this is suppressing Sandviken's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 32 Sandviken games / 2 IFK Varnamo games used (Blended). A blend of current and prior-season data is applied to stabilise estimates early in the campaign.
Result probabilities: Sandviken 77% | Draw 14% | IFK Varnamo 9%. Fair-value odds: Sandviken 1.30 | Draw 7.14 | IFK Varnamo 11.11. The model has a clear lean to Sandviken (77%) — a 68pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 73% | BTTS probability 57% | Total xG 3.81. Over 2.5 is the model's clear signal at 73% — a total xG of 3.81 means the expected score alone exceeds the 2.5 threshold, making the Over not just likely but structurally supported by both sides' attack/defence profiles. BTTS probability of 57% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Sandviken at 77% — clear model lean.
Poisson projects 3.81 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 73% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 57% on Yes. Form rates corroborate: Sandviken 60% | IFK Varnamo 50% BTTS from recent games.
The Poisson model is drawing on Blended data (2 games minimum) — early-season projections carry additional uncertainty. Weight the live form and odds signals accordingly.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Sandviken vs IFK Varnamo | Competition: Superettan, Regular Season - 3 | Venue: Jernvallen • Kick-off: Saturday 18 Apr 2026, 13:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Sandviken 77% | Draw 14% | IFK Varnamo 9% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 73% | BTTS 57% | xG Sandviken 2.89 / IFK Varnamo 0.93 • Poisson strength factors: Sandviken attack 1.072 / def 1.086 | IFK Varnamo attack 0.701 / def 1.577 | league avg home 1.709 / away 1.216 • Poisson stance: Sandviken (77%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
2.89
Sandviken xG
Expected Goals
0.93
IFK Varnamo xG
57%
BTTS
90%
Over 1.5
73%
Over 2.5
53%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Sandviken vs IFK Varnamo kick off?
Sandviken vs IFK Varnamo kicked off at 13:00 on Saturday 18 April 2026 at Jernvallen.
What was the final score in Sandviken vs IFK Varnamo?
Sandviken 0 - 1 IFK Varnamo.
Where is Sandviken vs IFK Varnamo being played?
The match is being played at Jernvallen.
What competition is Sandviken vs IFK Varnamo part of?
Sandviken vs IFK Varnamo is a Regular Season - 3 fixture in the Superettan (Sweden).
Who is favourite to win Sandviken vs IFK Varnamo?
Our statistical model gives Sandviken a 77% chance of winning, IFK Varnamo a 9% chance, and a 14% chance of a draw — making Sandviken the favourite.
Will both teams score in Sandviken vs IFK Varnamo?
Our model estimates a 57% probability that both Sandviken and IFK Varnamo will score (BTTS).
Will Sandviken vs IFK Varnamo have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 73%.
What is the head-to-head record between Sandviken and IFK Varnamo?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Sandviken and IFK Varnamo in?
Sandviken (all comps): 5W-2D-3L in 10 | 1.70 PPG | GF 1.50 / GA 1.30 | L5 D-D-W-W-W. IFK Varnamo (all comps): 3W-6D-1L in 10 | 1.50 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 0.70 | L5 L-W-D-D-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Working from Sandviken's attack rating (1.07) and IFK Varnamo's defence rating (1.58), the model arrives at 2.89 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — IFK Varnamo's attack (0.70x) against Sandviken's defence (1.09x) — and the away total comes out at 0.93.
The sample (32/2 games) mixes this season and last, since the current campaign is still relatively young.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 2-0 emerges as the single most likely result, at 9.2%. Close behind: 3-0 (8.9%), 2-1 (8.5%). Together the top three scorelines make up 27% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Sandviken Win
77%
1.30
14%
7.04
9%
11.47
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
2 – 0
9.2%
Home win
Most likely
3 – 0
8.9%
Home win
2 – 1
8.5%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
2.89
Sandviken xG
Total xG
3.81
0.93
IFK Varnamo xG
1.30
77%
Home win
7.04
14%
Draw
11.47
9%
Away win
Goals Markets
89%
Over 1.5
1.12
11%
Under 1.5
9.09
73%
Over 2.5
1.37
27%
Under 2.5
3.70
53%
Over 3.5
1.89
47%
Under 3.5
2.13
34%
Over 4.5
2.94
66%
Under 4.5
1.52
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
57%
BTTS Yes
1.74
43%
BTTS No
2.35
Clean Sheet
40%
2.52
6%
17.98
Win to Nil
31%
3.28
0%
–
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 2.2 | 2.0 | 0.9 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 1 | 6.4 | 5.9 | 2.7 | 0.8 | 0.2 | – |
| 2 | 9.2 | 8.5 | 3.9 | 1.2 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 8.9 | 8.2 | 3.8 | 1.2 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 6.4 | 5.9 | 2.7 | 0.8 | 0.2 | – |
| 5 | 3.7 | 3.4 | 1.6 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Sandviken vs IFK Varnamo?
Our Poisson model rates 2-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 9.2%.
How many goals are Sandviken and IFK Varnamo expected to score?
The model projects 2.89 expected goals for Sandviken and 0.93 for IFK Varnamo, a combined total of 3.81.
How confident is the prediction model for Sandviken vs IFK Varnamo?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 77%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Sandviken come into this having played 32 games, going 12W 5D 15L for 1.28 points per game. Their last five reads D-D-W-W-W.
On the other side, IFK Varnamo sit at 1.09 PPG from 32 outings (8W 11D 13L), a run that reads L-W-D-D-W across their last five. IFK Varnamo haven't played enough this season for a current-season-only sample, so this includes results carried over from last season.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.28 PPG for Sandviken against 1.09 for IFK Varnamo. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
How They Fare by Venue
Sandviken's home form reads 7W 2D 7L across 16 games on their own ground, a 1.44 PPG return.
Away from home, IFK Varnamo have taken 1.38 points per game from 16 outings (5W 7D 4L).
Attack vs Defence
Sandviken are averaging 1.19 goals scored and 1.59 conceded per game recently; IFK Varnamo are on 1.03 scored and 1.31 conceded.
Last 32 Results — Superettan
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Sandviken
Current Season
IFK Varnamo
Pre-Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Sandviken and IFK Varnamo in coming into this match?
Sandviken have gone 12W 5D 15L in their last 32 games (1.28 PPG), while IFK Varnamo have gone 8W 11D 13L in their last 32 (1.09 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Sandviken at home or IFK Varnamo away?
Sandviken's home record (1.44 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Sandviken at home: 1.44 PPG; IFK Varnamo away: 1.38 PPG.
Have Sandviken or IFK Varnamo been keeping clean sheets recently?
Sandviken have kept a clean sheet in 16% of their recent games, IFK Varnamo in 31%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 1 times that we have on record, stretching back to April 2026 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 1 year. Every recorded meeting has come in Superettan. They last met on 18 April 2026, roughly 4 months ago.
Last 1 Meetings
0
Sandviken
0
Draws
1
IFK Varnamo
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Sandviken and IFK Varnamo?
From 1 meetings on record, Sandviken have won 0, IFK Varnamo have won 1, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Sandviken and IFK Varnamo last play each other?
They last met on 18 April 2026, when Sandviken 0-1 IFK Varnamo.
Who has won more matches between Sandviken and IFK Varnamo?
IFK Varnamo have the better head-to-head record, with 1 wins from 1 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Sandviken are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 81% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 38% of the time.
IFK Varnamo are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 69% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 38% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 12% of those situations.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Sandviken 50%, IFK Varnamo 44% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 56% (Sandviken) and 31% (IFK Varnamo).
On the defensive side: IFK Varnamo in 38%; Sandviken have failed to score in 38% of games; IFK Varnamo in 31%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Sandviken home games / IFK Varnamo away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Sandviken play IFK Varnamo?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 50% of Sandviken's recent matches and 44% of IFK Varnamo's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Sandviken vs IFK Varnamo usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 56% of Sandviken's recent games and 31% of IFK Varnamo's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Sandviken and IFK Varnamo tend to score early?
Sandviken have had a goal before half-time in 81% of their recent matches, IFK Varnamo in 69% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as IFK Varnamo defy the odds to beat Sandviken 0-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
IFK Varnamo beat Sandviken 0-1 at Jernvallen, Regular Season - 3, in the Superettan. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Sandviken 2.89 xG and IFK Varnamo 0.93 xG, a combined 3.81. The scoreboard read 0-1 for 1 actual goal. Sandviken fell 2.9 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Sandviken attack 1.07 / defence 1.09 against IFK Varnamo attack 0.70 / defence 1.58, drawn from 32/2 games (Blended).
On the result, the model split it Sandviken 77% | Draw 14% | IFK Varnamo 9%, with Sandviken to win its most likely call at 77%. Instead the game produced a IFK Varnamo win, an outcome the model had rated at just 9% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 73%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 90% and missed. Over 3.5 was 53% and did not. On both teams to score, the model sat at 57% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 52% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Sandviken 62%, IFK Varnamo 41%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 48%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Sandviken's trading profile (32 games, 16 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 41% of games, a blank that repeated today.
IFK Varnamo's trading profile (32 games, 16 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 47% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 31% of the time, and duly kept one.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Sandviken 1.28 PPG, IFK Varnamo 1.09 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the IFK Varnamo win broke the near-deadlock. Sandviken (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.50 scoring average — below par going forward. IFK Varnamo (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 0.94 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.