Landskrona BoIS 3-3 Helsingborg – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Landskrona BoIS at 44%, yet other data sources diverge — this Landskrona BoIS vs Helsingborg fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Superettan encounter, Regular Season - 8 sees Helsingborg travel to Landskrona Idrottsplats to take on Landskrona BoIS. The game is scheduled for Monday 19 May 2025, 18:00 UTC.
Form Guide
Landskrona BoIS — All Games: 3W 2D 5L from 10 Superettan outings this season, averaging 1.10 points per game. Last five: W L W D L. They are averaging 1.30 goals per game and conceding 1.10 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation.
Landskrona BoIS's form when playing at home: 4W 3D 3L across 10 games at Landskrona Idrottsplats this term (1.50 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.70 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Helsingborg stand at 3W 2D 5L from 10 Superettan matches — 1.10 PPG. Last five: L W D L L. Their scoring rate of 1.10 per game is modest, conceding 1.50 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation.
Helsingborg's form when playing away from home: 5W 1D 4L across 10 road games this term (1.60 PPG). Away from home they average 1.60 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game. 4 clean sheets from 10 away games (40%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel. Their away PPG of 1.60 exceeds their overall 1.10 — they actually perform better on the road than their aggregate form implies.
There is minimal separation in the form figures — Landskrona BoIS at 1.10 PPG versus Helsingborg's 1.10. The form guide is not providing a strong directional steer; the model and market data will carry more weight in the final assessment.
Head to Head
There is little to separate the sides historically. From 6 previous meetings, Landskrona BoIS have won 3, Helsingborg 3, with 0 draws — a balanced ledger that offers no obvious directional steer on its own.
The 6 previous meetings have averaged 2.0 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 24 Sep 2024, ended 0–1 with Helsingborg winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
Trading Patterns
Landskrona BoIS in-play and half-time data (60 games, 30 at home): they score before half-time in 77% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 69% of the time; BTTS occurs in 53% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 53% of games (home games).
Helsingborg in-play and half-time data (60 games, 30 at away): they score before half-time in 73% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 68% of the time; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 53% of games (away games); they fail to score in 32% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Landskrona BoIS 55% versus Helsingborg 48%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Landskrona BoIS 58% | Helsingborg 48%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Landskrona BoIS 1.28 xG and Helsingborg 0.98 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Landskrona BoIS attack 1.033 / defence 0.902 | Helsingborg attack 0.862 / defence 0.918. League average goals — home 1.356 / away 1.255. Data: 37 Landskrona BoIS games / 37 Helsingborg games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Landskrona BoIS 44% | Draw 28% | Helsingborg 28%. Fair-value odds: Landskrona BoIS 2.27 | Draw 3.57 | Helsingborg 3.57. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 28% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 39% | BTTS probability 45% | Total xG 2.26. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 61% — total xG of 2.26 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 45% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Landskrona BoIS at 44% — marginal model lean. With a 28% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Landskrona BoIS offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 28% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 2.26 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 39% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence — though form averaging only 3.1 goals per game points in the other direction.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 45% on No. Form rates corroborate: Landskrona BoIS 50% | Helsingborg 30% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Landskrona BoIS vs Helsingborg | Competition: Superettan, Regular Season - 8 | Venue: Landskrona Idrottsplats • Kick-off: Monday 19 May 2025, 18:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Landskrona BoIS 44% | Draw 28% | Helsingborg 28% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 39% | BTTS 45% | xG Landskrona BoIS 1.28 / Helsingborg 0.98 • Poisson strength factors: Landskrona BoIS attack 1.033 / def 0.902 | Helsingborg attack 0.862 / def 0.918 | league avg home 1.356 / away 1.255 • Poisson stance: Landskrona BoIS (44%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.28
Landskrona BoIS xG
Expected Goals
0.98
Helsingborg xG
45%
BTTS
66%
Over 1.5
39%
Over 2.5
19%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Landskrona BoIS vs Helsingborg kick off?
Landskrona BoIS vs Helsingborg kicked off at 18:00 on Monday 19 May 2025 at Landskrona Idrottsplats.
What was the final score in Landskrona BoIS vs Helsingborg?
Landskrona BoIS 3 - 3 Helsingborg.
Where is Landskrona BoIS vs Helsingborg being played?
The match is being played at Landskrona Idrottsplats.
What competition is Landskrona BoIS vs Helsingborg part of?
Landskrona BoIS vs Helsingborg is a Regular Season - 8 fixture in the Superettan (Sweden).
Who is favourite to win Landskrona BoIS vs Helsingborg?
Our statistical model gives Landskrona BoIS a 44% chance of winning, Helsingborg a 28% chance, and a 28% chance of a draw — making Landskrona BoIS the favourite.
Will both teams score in Landskrona BoIS vs Helsingborg?
Our model estimates a 45% probability that both Landskrona BoIS and Helsingborg will score (BTTS).
Will Landskrona BoIS vs Helsingborg have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 39%.
What is the head-to-head record between Landskrona BoIS and Helsingborg?
Record (6 meetings): Landskrona BoIS 3W | Draws 0 | Helsingborg 3W.
What form are Landskrona BoIS and Helsingborg in?
Landskrona BoIS (all comps): 3W-2D-5L in 10 | 1.10 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 1.10 | L5 W-L-W-D-L. Helsingborg (all comps): 3W-2D-5L in 10 | 1.10 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 1.50 | L5 L-W-D-L-L.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Landskrona BoIS's attacking strength (1.03x league average) is weighed against Helsingborg's defensive record (0.92x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.28. The same calculation in reverse, Helsingborg's attack versus Landskrona BoIS's defence, projects 0.98 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 37/37 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 14.8%. Close behind: 0-0 (12.1%), 1-0 (11.7%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 39% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Landskrona BoIS Win
44%
2.30
28%
3.54
28%
3.54
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
13.4%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
13.1%
Draw
0 – 0
10.4%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.28
Landskrona BoIS xG
Total xG
2.26
0.98
Helsingborg xG
2.30
44%
Home win
3.54
28%
Draw
3.54
28%
Away win
Goals Markets
66%
Over 1.5
1.52
34%
Under 1.5
2.94
39%
Over 2.5
2.56
61%
Under 2.5
1.64
19%
Over 3.5
5.26
81%
Under 3.5
1.23
8%
Over 4.5
12.50
92%
Under 4.5
1.09
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
45%
BTTS Yes
2.22
55%
BTTS No
1.82
Clean Sheet
38%
2.65
28%
3.61
Win to Nil
16%
6.10
8%
12.80
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 10.4 | 10.2 | 5.0 | 1.6 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 13.4 | 13.1 | 6.4 | 2.1 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 8.6 | 8.4 | 4.1 | 1.3 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 3.7 | 3.6 | 1.8 | 0.6 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 1.2 | 1.2 | 0.6 | 0.2 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Landskrona BoIS vs Helsingborg?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.8%.
How many goals are Landskrona BoIS and Helsingborg expected to score?
The model projects 1.28 expected goals for Landskrona BoIS and 0.98 for Helsingborg, a combined total of 2.26.
How confident is the prediction model for Landskrona BoIS vs Helsingborg?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 44%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Landskrona BoIS come into this having played 60 games, going 25W 13D 22L for 1.47 points per game. Their last five reads W-L-W-D-L.
On the other side, Helsingborg sit at 1.33 PPG from 60 outings (21W 17D 22L), a run that reads L-W-D-L-L across their last five.
Form-wise this is close to level: Landskrona BoIS on 1.47 PPG, Helsingborg on 1.33. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
Landskrona BoIS's home form reads 14W 8D 8L across 30 games on their own ground, a 1.67 PPG return.
Away from home, Helsingborg have taken 1.27 points per game from 30 outings (10W 8D 12L).
Goals in Recent Form
Landskrona BoIS are averaging 1.43 goals scored and 1.38 conceded per game recently; Helsingborg are on 1.22 scored and 1.18 conceded.
Last 60 Results — Superettan
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Landskrona BoIS
Current Season
Helsingborg
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Landskrona BoIS and Helsingborg in coming into this match?
Landskrona BoIS have gone 25W 13D 22L in their last 60 games (1.47 PPG), while Helsingborg have gone 21W 17D 22L in their last 60 (1.33 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Landskrona BoIS at home or Helsingborg away?
Landskrona BoIS's home record (1.67 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Landskrona BoIS at home: 1.67 PPG; Helsingborg away: 1.27 PPG.
Have Landskrona BoIS or Helsingborg been keeping clean sheets recently?
Landskrona BoIS have kept a clean sheet in 28% of their recent games, Helsingborg in 30%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
10 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to August 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Superettan. The two were last together as recently as 9 September 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Streaks & Records
The biggest gap between the sides came on 11 Jun 2026, when Landskrona BoIS won 0-3 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Landskrona BoIS's record when hosting Helsingborg specifically: 1W 1D 3L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
4
Landskrona BoIS
2
Draws
4
Helsingborg
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Landskrona BoIS and Helsingborg?
From 10 meetings on record, Landskrona BoIS have won 4, Helsingborg have won 4, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Landskrona BoIS and Helsingborg last play each other?
They last met on 9 September 2026, when Landskrona BoIS 1-2 Helsingborg.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Landskrona BoIS are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 77% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 43% of the time.
Helsingborg are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 73% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 33% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 17% of those situations.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Landskrona BoIS 53%, Helsingborg 50% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 53% (Landskrona BoIS) and 53% (Helsingborg).
On the defensive side: Landskrona BoIS keep a clean sheet in 33% of their matches; Helsingborg in 30%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Landskrona BoIS home games / Helsingborg away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Landskrona BoIS play Helsingborg?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 53% of Landskrona BoIS's recent matches and 50% of Helsingborg's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Landskrona BoIS vs Helsingborg usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 53% of Landskrona BoIS's recent games and 53% of Helsingborg's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Landskrona BoIS and Helsingborg tend to score early?
Landskrona BoIS have had a goal before half-time in 77% of their recent matches, Helsingborg in 73% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Landskrona BoIS and Helsingborg share the spoils in a 3-3 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at Landskrona Idrottsplats, Regular Season - 8, as Landskrona BoIS and Helsingborg drew 3-3 in the Superettan. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Landskrona BoIS 1.28 xG and Helsingborg 0.98 xG, a combined 2.26. The scoreboard read 3-3 for 6 actual goals. Landskrona BoIS beat their projection by 1.7 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Helsingborg outscored their 0.98 projection by 2.0. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Landskrona BoIS attack 1.03 / defence 0.90 against Helsingborg attack 0.86 / defence 0.92, drawn from 37/37 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Landskrona BoIS 44% | Draw 28% | Helsingborg 28%, with Landskrona BoIS to win its most likely call at 44%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 28%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 39%. The game delivered 6, so it went over — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 66% and landed. Over 3.5 was 19% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 45% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 53% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Landskrona BoIS 58%, Helsingborg 48%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 52%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Landskrona BoIS's trading profile (60 games, 30 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 55% of their matches — today it did.
Helsingborg's trading profile (60 games, 30 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 48% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 30% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Landskrona BoIS 1.47 PPG, Helsingborg 1.33 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. Landskrona BoIS (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.60 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 3 against a 1.17 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Helsingborg (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.23 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 3 against a 1.30 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.