IK brage 1-2 Oddevold – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates IK brage at 43%, yet other data sources diverge — this IK brage vs Oddevold fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Superettan clash, Regular Season - 29 as IK brage welcome Oddevold to Borlänge Energi Arena Domnarvsvallen. Kick-off is set for Sunday 3 November 2024 at 14:00 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Superettan games this season, IK brage have gone 2W 3D 5L from 10 outings — a 0.90 PPG return. Last five: W L L W L. They are averaging 0.50 goals per game and conceding 1.30 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their matches, indicating a tendency toward clean sheets or low-scoring outcomes.
IK brage at Borlänge Energi Arena Domnarvsvallen this season: 5W 2D 3L from 10 home games — 1.70 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.40 goals scored and 0.90 conceded per game. 6 clean sheets from 10 home games (60%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Borlänge Energi Arena Domnarvsvallen. At home, both teams have scored in only 20% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle. Their home PPG of 1.70 is noticeably stronger than their overall 0.90 — IK brage are significantly better at Borlänge Energi Arena Domnarvsvallen than their overall form suggests.
Oddevold — All Games: 3W 5D 2L from 10 Superettan fixtures this season — 1.40 PPG. Last five: D W D D D. Their scoring rate of 1.10 per game is modest, conceding 1.30 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation.
Oddevold away from home this season: 2W 4D 4L from 10 away games — 1.00 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.30 goals scored and 1.80 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
The form comparison is too close to call — 0.90 PPG (IK brage) versus 1.40 (Oddevold). When the figures are this level, no pick can be reliably derived from recent results alone.
H2H Record
The H2H landscape is flat: 1 previous encounters have yielded 0 wins for IK brage, 0 for Oddevold and 1 draws. A neutral reading in isolation.
The 1 previous meetings have averaged 2.0 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 18 May 2024, ended 1–1 with a draw.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
In-Play Data
IK brage trading profile (28 games, 14 at home): they score before half-time in 79% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 80% of the time; BTTS occurs in 29% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 36% of games (home games); they fail to score in 32% of games.
Oddevold trading profile (28 games, 14 at away): they score before half-time in 79% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 43% of the time; BTTS occurs in 57% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 64% of games (away games); they fail to score in 32% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — IK brage 36% versus Oddevold 61%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (IK brage 32% | Oddevold 61%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects IK brage 1.27 xG and Oddevold 0.95 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: IK brage attack 0.833 / defence 0.910 | Oddevold attack 0.900 / defence 1.092. League average goals — home 1.395 / away 1.162. Data: 58 IK brage games / 28 Oddevold games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: IK brage 43% | Draw 31% | Oddevold 27%. Fair-value odds: IK brage 2.33 | Draw 3.23 | Oddevold 3.70. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 31% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 38% | BTTS probability 45% | Total xG 2.22. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 62% — total xG of 2.22 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 45% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates IK brage as the most likely outcome at 43% — marginal model lean. With a 31% draw probability, Draw No Bet on IK brage offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.22 combined xG gives a 38% probability to Under 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration.
Poisson assigns a 45% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: IK brage 20% | Oddevold 60% BTTS from recent games.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: IK brage vs Oddevold | Competition: Superettan, Regular Season - 29 | Venue: Borlänge Energi Arena Domnarvsvallen • Kick-off: Sunday 3 Nov 2024, 14:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: IK brage 43% | Draw 31% | Oddevold 27% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 38% | BTTS 45% | xG IK brage 1.27 / Oddevold 0.95 • Poisson strength factors: IK brage attack 0.833 / def 0.910 | Oddevold attack 0.900 / def 1.092 | league avg home 1.395 / away 1.162 • Poisson stance: IK brage (43%) — low confidence — close contest
🎲 Betting Market Intelligence
• Odds data is not currently available for this fixture
🧮 Prediction Model
1.27
IK brage xG
Expected Goals
0.95
Oddevold xG
45%
BTTS
66%
Over 1.5
38%
Over 2.5
18%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does IK brage vs Oddevold kick off?
IK brage vs Oddevold kicked off at 14:00 on Sunday 3 November 2024 at Borlänge Energi Arena Domnarvsvallen.
What was the final score in IK brage vs Oddevold?
IK brage 1 - 2 Oddevold.
Where is IK brage vs Oddevold being played?
The match is being played at Borlänge Energi Arena Domnarvsvallen.
What competition is IK brage vs Oddevold part of?
IK brage vs Oddevold is a Regular Season - 29 fixture in the Superettan (Sweden).
Who is favourite to win IK brage vs Oddevold?
Our statistical model gives IK brage a 43% chance of winning, Oddevold a 27% chance, and a 31% chance of a draw — making IK brage the favourite.
Will both teams score in IK brage vs Oddevold?
Our model estimates a 45% probability that both IK brage and Oddevold will score (BTTS).
Will IK brage vs Oddevold have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 38%.
What is the head-to-head record between IK brage and Oddevold?
Record (1 meetings): IK brage 0W | Draws 1 | Oddevold 0W.
What form are IK brage and Oddevold in?
IK brage (all comps): 2W-3D-5L in 10 | 0.90 PPG | GF 0.50 / GA 1.30 | L5 W-L-L-W-L. Oddevold (all comps): 3W-5D-2L in 10 | 1.40 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 1.30 | L5 D-W-D-D-D.
What do the betting odds say about IK brage vs Oddevold?
Odds data is not currently available for this fixture.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Working from IK brage's attack rating (0.83) and Oddevold's defence rating (1.09), the model arrives at 1.27 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Oddevold's attack versus IK brage's defence, projects 0.95 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 58/28 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 14.8%. Close behind: 0-0 (12.6%), 1-0 (12.1%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 39% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
IK brage Win
43%
2.35
31%
3.27
27%
3.73
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
13.8%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
13.1%
Draw
0 – 0
10.9%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.27
IK brage xG
Total xG
2.22
0.95
Oddevold xG
2.35
43%
Home win
3.27
31%
Draw
3.73
27%
Away win
Goals Markets
65%
Over 1.5
1.54
35%
Under 1.5
2.86
38%
Over 2.5
2.63
62%
Under 2.5
1.61
18%
Over 3.5
5.56
82%
Under 3.5
1.22
7%
Over 4.5
14.29
93%
Under 4.5
1.08
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
45%
BTTS Yes
2.21
55%
BTTS No
1.82
Clean Sheet
39%
2.59
28%
3.56
Win to Nil
16%
6.08
8%
13.28
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 10.9 | 10.3 | 4.9 | 1.6 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 13.8 | 13.1 | 6.2 | 2.0 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 8.7 | 8.3 | 4.0 | 1.3 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 3.7 | 3.5 | 1.7 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 1.2 | 1.1 | 0.5 | 0.2 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for IK brage vs Oddevold?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.8%.
How many goals are IK brage and Oddevold expected to score?
The model projects 1.27 expected goals for IK brage and 0.95 for Oddevold, a combined total of 2.22.
How confident is the prediction model for IK brage vs Oddevold?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 43%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
IK brage's recent record stands at 11W 7D 10L from 28 games, a 1.43 PPG return, with W-L-L-W-L in the last five.
Oddevold, meanwhile, have gone 7W 12D 9L across 28 games — 1.18 PPG, with D-W-D-D-D in their last five.
Form-wise this is close to level: IK brage on 1.43 PPG, Oddevold on 1.18. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
At home specifically, IK brage have managed 7W 3D 4L from 14 games — 1.71 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Oddevold's away record stands at 3W 5D 6L across 14 trips, a 1.00 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, IK brage come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
IK brage are averaging 1.04 goals scored and 0.93 conceded per game recently; Oddevold are on 1.14 scored and 1.54 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Oddevold in 61%.
Defensively: IK brage have kept a clean sheet in 39% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 28 Results — Superettan
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
IK brage
Current Season
Oddevold
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are IK brage and Oddevold in coming into this match?
IK brage have gone 11W 7D 10L in their last 28 games (1.43 PPG), while Oddevold have gone 7W 12D 9L in their last 28 (1.18 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — IK brage at home or Oddevold away?
IK brage's home record (1.71 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — IK brage at home: 1.71 PPG; Oddevold away: 1.00 PPG.
Have IK brage or Oddevold been keeping clean sheets recently?
IK brage have kept a clean sheet in 39% of their recent games, Oddevold in 21%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
5 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to May 2024. Every recorded meeting has come in Superettan. They last met on 12 April 2026, roughly 3 months ago.
Streaks & Records
There's a clear current trend here: Oddevold have taken the last 4 head-to-head results.
The biggest gap between the sides came on 13 Sep 2025, when Oddevold won 4-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
IK brage's record when hosting Oddevold specifically: 0W 0D 3L from 3 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 5 Meetings
0
IK brage
1
Draws
4
Oddevold
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between IK brage and Oddevold?
From 5 meetings on record, IK brage have won 0, Oddevold have won 4, and 1 have been drawn.
When did IK brage and Oddevold last play each other?
They last met on 12 April 2026, when IK brage 3-4 Oddevold.
Who has won more matches between IK brage and Oddevold?
Oddevold have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 5 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
IK brage are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 79% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 36% of the time.
Oddevold are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 79% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 14% of those situations.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — IK brage 29%, Oddevold 57% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 36% (IK brage) and 64% (Oddevold).
On the defensive side: IK brage keep a clean sheet in 50% of their matches; IK brage have failed to score in 29% of games; Oddevold in 36%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = IK brage home games / Oddevold away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when IK brage play Oddevold?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 29% of IK brage's recent matches and 57% of Oddevold's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is IK brage vs Oddevold usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 36% of IK brage's recent games and 64% of Oddevold's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do IK brage and Oddevold tend to score early?
IK brage have had a goal before half-time in 79% of their recent matches, Oddevold in 79% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as Oddevold defy the odds to beat IK brage 1-2.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Oddevold beat IK brage 1-2 at Borlänge Energi Arena Domnarvsvallen, Regular Season - 29, in the Superettan. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting IK brage 1.27 xG and Oddevold 0.95 xG, a combined 2.22. The scoreboard read 1-2 for 3 actual goals. Oddevold outscored their 0.95 projection by 1.0. Those figures were built on strength ratings of IK brage attack 0.83 / defence 0.91 against Oddevold attack 0.90 / defence 1.09, drawn from 58/28 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it IK brage 43% | Draw 31% | Oddevold 27%, with IK brage to win its most likely call at 43%. The actual Oddevold win had been the model's second-ranked read at 27%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 38%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 66% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 45% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 46% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (IK brage 32%, Oddevold 61%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 48%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
IK brage's trading profile (28 games, 14 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 36% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 39% of the time, and conceded here.
Oddevold's trading profile (28 games, 14 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 61% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — IK brage 1.43 PPG, Oddevold 1.18 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Oddevold win broke the near-deadlock. IK brage (home/away splits) shipped 2 against a 0.86 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Oddevold (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 1.14 average — above their attacking norm.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.