IK brage 4-1 Landskrona BoIS – Result & Analysis

Poisson model rates IK brage at 42% — neither recent form nor the head-to-head data gives a clear steer either way as IK brage face Landskrona BoIS.

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Match Analysis

IK brage host Landskrona BoIS at Domnarvsvallen in Superettan (matchday 30). Kick-off is Saturday 8 November 2025 at 14:00 UK time.

Recent Form

Across their last 10 games, IK brage have gone 3W 1D 6L — a 1.00 PPG return. Last five: L L L W W. Offensively they are averaging 1.50 goals per game, with 2.20 conceded. However, 2.20 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.

In front of their own supporters, IK brage have posted 4W 2D 4L from their last 10 home games — 1.40 PPG. They are averaging 2.10 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. Both teams have scored in 90% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.

Looking at their last 10 matches, Landskrona BoIS stand at 3W 3D 4L — 1.20 PPG. Last five: L W L W D. Their scoring rate of 0.90 per game is modest, conceding 1.50 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings (20%).

Landskrona BoIS away from home: 3W 2D 5L from their last 10 away games — 1.10 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 0.80 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game.

There is minimal separation in the form figures — IK brage at 1.00 PPG versus Landskrona BoIS's 1.20. The form guide is not providing a strong directional steer; the model and market data will carry more weight in the final assessment.

H2H Record

The H2H picture is flat: the 7 H2H matches we hold have produced 1 wins for IK brage, 2 for Landskrona BoIS and 4 draws. Form and model data should carry more weight here.

The 7 H2H matches in our data averaged 2.7 goals per game — a neutral rate that gives no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent of those, on 30 Mar 2025, ended IK brage 2–2 Landskrona BoIS — a draw.

The head-to-head data offers no strong steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the model and current market pricing should carry more weight for this fixture.

Trading Patterns

IK brage in-play and half-time data (last 59 games, 29 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 86% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 88% of the time; of the 12 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 25%; of the 21 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 38%; BTTS occurs in 55% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 55% of games (home games).

Landskrona BoIS in-play and half-time data (last 59 games, 29 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 66% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 71% of the time; of the 15 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 33%; BTTS occurs in 55% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 55% of games (away games).

BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — IK brage 52% versus Landskrona BoIS 56%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (IK brage 49% | Landskrona BoIS 56%). There is an in-play dynamic worth noting: IK brage surrender their half-time lead 25% of the time, while Landskrona BoIS have come from behind at the break to draw or win in 33% of cases — a combination that makes laying the hosts at HT a potential angle.

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects IK brage 1.70 xG and Landskrona BoIS 1.51 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: IK brage attack 1.135 / defence 1.460 | Landskrona BoIS attack 0.855 / defence 0.974. League average goals — home 1.535 / away 1.208. IK brage's defence rating of 1.460 (above 1 = concedes more than average) is pushing Landskrona BoIS's projected output up. Data: built from IK brage's last 59 games and Landskrona BoIS's last 59.

Result probabilities: IK brage 42% | Draw 24% | Landskrona BoIS 34%. Fair-value odds: IK brage 2.39 | Draw 4.11 | Landskrona BoIS 2.96. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome reaches 45%. The draw at 24% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 62% | BTTS Yes probability 64% | Total xG 3.21. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 62% — the 3.21 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 64% — both xG figures (1.70 / 1.51) are high enough that each side is projected to find the net.

Analysis Verdict

On the Poisson output, IK brage are the pick at 42% — marginal model lean. With a 24% draw probability, Draw No Bet on IK brage offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 34% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.

On the goals line, Poisson's 3.21 combined xG gives a 62% probability to Over 2.5 — strong conviction, supported by recent form (IK brage's last 10 home games and Landskrona BoIS's last 10 away games) averaging 3.2 goals per game and the H2H data averaging 2.7 goals per game across 7 H2H matches.

Poisson assigns a 64% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: IK brage 90% (last 10 home games) | Landskrona BoIS 40% (last 10 away games).

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