GIF Sundsvall 1-1 Orgryte IS – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Orgryte IS at 45% — recent form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this GIF Sundsvall vs Orgryte IS encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
GIF Sundsvall host Orgryte IS at NP3 Arena in Superettan (matchday 30). Kick-off is Saturday 8 November 2025 at 14:00 UK time.
Form Analysis
Looking at their last 10 matches, GIF Sundsvall stand at 2W 1D 7L — 0.70 PPG. Last five: W L L L D. They are averaging 1.00 goals per game and conceding 1.70 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings (10%). Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
GIF Sundsvall's home record over their last 10 home games: 3W 3D 4L (1.20 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.20 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game. Their home PPG of 1.20 is noticeably stronger than their overall 0.70 — GIF Sundsvall are significantly better at home than their overall form suggests.
Orgryte IS — last 10 games: 5W 2D 3L — 1.70 PPG. Last five: W D L L L. Their scoring rate of 1.30 per game is modest, conceding 1.20 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings (30%).
On the road, Orgryte IS have gone 7W 1D 2L in their last 10 away fixtures (2.20 PPG). Away from home they average 1.70 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context. Their away PPG of 2.20 exceeds their overall 1.70 — they actually perform better on the road than their aggregate form implies.
Despite the home advantage, the form figures favour Orgryte IS — 1.00 PPG ahead of the hosts (1.70 vs 0.70). That gap is large enough to take seriously. Draw No Bet on the visitors neutralises home-ground risk while maintaining the form-backed selection.
H2H Record
The H2H picture is flat: the 7 H2H matches we hold have produced 2 wins for GIF Sundsvall, 2 for Orgryte IS and 3 draws. Form and model data should carry more weight here.
The 7 H2H matches in our data have been tight, averaging just 1.3 goals per game — a meaningful input for the Under 2.5 market. The most recent of those, on 12 Apr 2025, ended GIF Sundsvall 0–0 Orgryte IS — a draw.
With a balanced win record and just 1.3 goals per game, the H2H data points toward a tight, low-scoring contest — Under 2.5 is the stronger head-to-head angle regardless of which side wins.
In-Play Data
GIF Sundsvall trading profile (last 59 games, 29 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 59% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 70% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; of the 13 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 31%; of the 23 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 26%; BTTS occurs in 59% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 52% of games (home games); they fail to score in 30% of games.
Orgryte IS trading profile (last 59 games, 29 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 69% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 71% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 64% of those occasions; of the 14 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 36%; BTTS occurs in 66% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 48% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 36%.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — GIF Sundsvall 51% versus Orgryte IS 61%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (GIF Sundsvall 49% | Orgryte IS 58%). There is an in-play dynamic worth noting: GIF Sundsvall surrender their half-time lead 31% of the time, while Orgryte IS have come from behind at the break to draw or win in 36% of cases — a combination that makes laying the hosts at HT a potential angle.
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects GIF Sundsvall 1.18 xG and Orgryte IS 1.55 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: GIF Sundsvall attack 0.876 / defence 1.130 | Orgryte IS attack 1.134 / defence 0.876. League average goals — home 1.535 / away 1.208. Data: built from GIF Sundsvall's last 59 games and Orgryte IS's last 59.
Result probabilities: GIF Sundsvall 28% | Draw 26% | Orgryte IS 45%. Fair-value odds: GIF Sundsvall 3.53 | Draw 3.79 | Orgryte IS 2.21. Orgryte IS hold a narrow Poisson edge at 45% — the draw (26%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 51% | BTTS Yes probability 55% | Total xG 2.73. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 51%/49% — the total xG of 2.73 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS Yes at 55% is only a slight lean — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Orgryte IS as the most likely outcome at 45% — moderate model lean. Recent form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 26% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Orgryte IS offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 28% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 2.73 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 51% probability — mixed conviction, supported by recent form (GIF Sundsvall's last 10 home games and Orgryte IS's last 10 away games) averaging 2.7 goals per game — though the H2H data averaging only 1.3 goals per game across 7 H2H matches points the other way.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 55%. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: GIF Sundsvall 50% (last 10 home games) | Orgryte IS 60% (last 10 away games).
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: GIF Sundsvall vs Orgryte IS | Competition: Superettan, matchday 30 | Venue: NP3 Arena • Kick-off: Saturday 8 November 2025 at 14:00 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: GIF Sundsvall 28% | Draw 26% | Orgryte IS 45% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 51% (Under 49%) | BTTS Yes 55% (No 45%) | xG GIF Sundsvall 1.18 / Orgryte IS 1.55 • Poisson strength factors: GIF Sundsvall attack 0.876 / def 1.130 | Orgryte IS attack 1.134 / def 0.876 | league avg home 1.535 / away 1.208 • Poisson stance: Orgryte IS (45%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.18
GIF Sundsvall xG
Expected Goals
1.55
Orgryte IS xG
55%
BTTS
76%
Over 1.5
51%
Over 2.5
29%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ GIF Sundsvall vs Orgryte IS FAQs
What time does GIF Sundsvall vs Orgryte IS kick off?
GIF Sundsvall vs Orgryte IS kicked off at 14:00 UK time on Saturday 8 November 2025 at NP3 Arena.
What was the final score in GIF Sundsvall vs Orgryte IS?
GIF Sundsvall 1 - 1 Orgryte IS.
Where is GIF Sundsvall vs Orgryte IS being played?
The match is being played at NP3 Arena.
What competition is GIF Sundsvall vs Orgryte IS part of?
GIF Sundsvall vs Orgryte IS is a Superettan fixture (matchday 30) (Sweden).
Who is favourite to win GIF Sundsvall vs Orgryte IS?
Our statistical model gives GIF Sundsvall a 28% chance of winning, Orgryte IS a 45% chance, and a 26% chance of a draw — making Orgryte IS the favourite.
Will both teams score in GIF Sundsvall vs Orgryte IS?
Our model estimates a 55% probability that both GIF Sundsvall and Orgryte IS will score, so it leans towards BTTS Yes.
Will GIF Sundsvall vs Orgryte IS have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 51%, so it leans towards over 2.5 goals.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
The model rates GIF Sundsvall's attack at 0.88x the league average against Orgryte IS's defence at 0.88x — combine the two and it projects 1.18 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Orgryte IS's attack versus GIF Sundsvall's defence, projects 1.55 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from GIF Sundsvall's last 59 games and Orgryte IS's last 59 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 13.5% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-2 (9.2%), 0-1 (8.6%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 31% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Orgryte IS Win
28%
3.53
26%
3.79
45%
2.21
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.9%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
10.1%
Away win
1 – 2
9.2%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.18
GIF Sundsvall xG
Total xG
2.73
1.55
Orgryte IS xG
3.53
28%
Home win
3.79
26%
Draw
2.21
45%
Away win
Goals Markets
76%
Over 1.5
1.32
24%
Under 1.5
4.17
51%
Over 2.5
1.96
49%
Under 2.5
2.04
29%
Over 3.5
3.45
71%
Under 3.5
1.41
14%
Over 4.5
7.14
86%
Under 4.5
1.16
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
55%
BTTS Yes
1.82
45%
BTTS No
2.23
Clean Sheet
21%
4.70
31%
3.24
Win to Nil
6%
16.58
14%
7.17
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.6 | 10.1 | 7.9 | 4.1 | 1.6 | 0.5 |
| 1 | 7.7 | 11.9 | 9.2 | 4.8 | 1.8 | 0.6 |
| 2 | 4.5 | 7.0 | 5.4 | 2.8 | 1.1 | 0.3 |
| 3 | 1.8 | 2.8 | 2.1 | 1.1 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.5 | 0.8 | 0.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ GIF Sundsvall vs Orgryte IS Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for GIF Sundsvall vs Orgryte IS?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.5%.
How many goals are GIF Sundsvall and Orgryte IS expected to score?
The model projects 1.18 expected goals for GIF Sundsvall and 1.55 for Orgryte IS, a combined total of 2.73.
How confident is the prediction model for GIF Sundsvall vs Orgryte IS?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 45%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Across their last 59 outings, GIF Sundsvall have picked up 1.29 PPG on a 21W 13D 25L record — W-L-L-L-D across the most recent five.
Orgryte IS's form line: 28W 15D 16L from 59 games, 1.68 PPG, last five W-D-L-L-L.
Form-wise this is close to level: GIF Sundsvall on 1.29 PPG, Orgryte IS on 1.68. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
On home soil, GIF Sundsvall have posted 1.31 PPG from their last 29 home games (10W 8D 11L).
On the road, Orgryte IS have gone 12W 9D 8L from their last 29 away games — 1.55 PPG when travelling.
The Goals Picture
GIF Sundsvall are averaging 1.14 goals scored and 1.31 conceded per game recently; Orgryte IS are on 1.80 scored and 1.27 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Orgryte IS in 61%.
Last 59 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
GIF Sundsvall
Current Season
Orgryte IS
Current Season
GIF Sundsvall (Home) vs Orgryte IS (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
GIF Sundsvall
Current Season
Orgryte IS
Current Season
❓ GIF Sundsvall vs Orgryte IS Form FAQs
What form are GIF Sundsvall and Orgryte IS in coming into this match?
GIF Sundsvall have gone 21W 13D 25L in their last 59 games (1.29 PPG), while Orgryte IS have gone 28W 15D 16L in their last 59 (1.68 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — GIF Sundsvall at home or Orgryte IS away?
Orgryte IS's away record (1.55 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — GIF Sundsvall at home: 1.31 PPG; Orgryte IS away: 1.55 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The head-to-head numbers here are drawn from the 8 H2H matches in our data, going back to May 2021. All of them came in Superettan. The most recent was on 8 November 2025, roughly 12 months ago.
Digging Into the Numbers
The most recent 4 H2H matches in our data have all been drawn — an unusually settled run for this fixture.
GIF Sundsvall's record when hosting Orgryte IS specifically: 1W 2D 1L from 4 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 8 Meetings
2
GIF Sundsvall
4
Draws
2
Orgryte IS
Recent Meetings
❓ GIF Sundsvall vs Orgryte IS H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between GIF Sundsvall and Orgryte IS?
Across the 8 head-to-head matches in our data, GIF Sundsvall have won 2, Orgryte IS have won 2, and 4 have been drawn.
When did GIF Sundsvall and Orgryte IS last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 8 November 2025: GIF Sundsvall 1-1 Orgryte IS.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
GIF Sundsvall see a goal before the break in 59% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 28% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 38% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 33% of those situations.
Orgryte IS are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 69% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 50% of those situations.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — GIF Sundsvall 59%, Orgryte IS 66% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 52% (GIF Sundsvall) and 48% (Orgryte IS).
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = GIF Sundsvall home games / Orgryte IS away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ GIF Sundsvall vs Orgryte IS Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in GIF Sundsvall and Orgryte IS matches?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 59% of GIF Sundsvall's games and 66% of Orgryte IS's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Are GIF Sundsvall and Orgryte IS matches usually high-scoring?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 52% of GIF Sundsvall's recent games and 48% of Orgryte IS's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do GIF Sundsvall and Orgryte IS matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 59% of GIF Sundsvall's recent matches and 69% of Orgryte IS's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
GIF Sundsvall and Orgryte IS share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
GIF Sundsvall and Orgryte IS finished level at 1-1 at NP3 Arena, Regular Season - 30, in the Superettan. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting GIF Sundsvall 1.18 xG and Orgryte IS 1.55 xG, a combined 2.73. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of GIF Sundsvall attack 0.88 / defence 1.13 against Orgryte IS attack 1.13 / defence 0.88, drawn from 59/59 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it GIF Sundsvall 28% | Draw 26% | Orgryte IS 45%, with Orgryte IS to win its most likely call at 45%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 26%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 51%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 76% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 55% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 53% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (GIF Sundsvall 49%, Orgryte IS 58%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 56%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
GIF Sundsvall's trading profile (59 games, 29 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 51% of their matches — today it did.
Orgryte IS's trading profile (59 games, 29 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 61% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — GIF Sundsvall 1.29 PPG, Orgryte IS 1.68 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.