IFK Norrkoping 3-0 Ostersunds FK – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model favours IFK Norrkoping (40%) — form and H2H data both point in the same direction as IFK Norrkoping face Ostersunds FK.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Ostersunds FK make the trip to Idrottsparken to face IFK Norrkoping in Superettan, Regular Season - 29. The match kicks off on Saturday 31 October 2026 at 12:00 UTC.
Form & Momentum
IFK Norrkoping have collected 2.40 PPG across 10 Superettan outings this season: 7W 3D 0L. Last five: D W W D W. They are averaging 2.60 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. Defensively, conceding just 0.80 per game is an exceptional defensive record — one of the tightest in the division. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
IFK Norrkoping's home record at Idrottsparken: 6W 3D 1L from 10 Superettan appearances (2.10 PPG). They are averaging 2.00 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. 6 clean sheets from 10 home games (60%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Idrottsparken. At home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle.
Ostersunds FK's overall Superettan record this term: 3W 7D 0L from 10 games (1.60 PPG). Last five: W D D D W. Their scoring rate of 1.00 per game is modest, conceding 0.50 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Defensively, 0.50 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not.
Ostersunds FK away from home this season: 2W 7D 1L from 10 away games — 1.30 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 0.90 goals scored and 0.70 conceded per game. 4 clean sheets from 10 away games (40%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road.
The form ledger tips toward IFK Norrkoping. A 0.80 PPG lead over Ostersunds FK (2.40 vs 1.60) is a consistent enough margin to carry weight. If the win odds appear compressed, Draw No Bet offers draw insurance at a lower cost than a full switch to Double Chance.
H2H Analysis
Historically, IFK Norrkoping have had the better of this match-up — 4 wins from 5 meetings, with Ostersunds FK managing just 0 victories and 1 draws shared.
Attacking output has been a hallmark of this fixture. At 3.6 goals per game across 5 meetings, the Over 2.5 has a statistically grounded case from the head-to-head record alone. The most recent clash, on 21 Jun 2026, ended 2–0 with IFK Norrkoping winning.
From a betting standpoint, the H2H backs both IFK Norrkoping and goals. The home side's 4 wins from 5 meetings, combined with an average of 3.6 goals per game, gives the home win and Over 2.5 combination a historically grounded case.
Trading & In-Play
IFK Norrkoping — key trading statistics (58 games, 29 at home): they score before half-time in 72% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 73% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 60% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 41% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 59% of games (home games).
Ostersunds FK — key trading statistics (58 games, 29 at away): they score before half-time in 59% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 70% of the time; BTTS occurs in 38% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 28% of games (away games); they fail to score in 31% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — IFK Norrkoping 48% versus Ostersunds FK 50%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (IFK Norrkoping 55% | Ostersunds FK 41%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects IFK Norrkoping 1.13 xG and Ostersunds FK 0.88 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: IFK Norrkoping attack 1.139 / defence 0.847 | Ostersunds FK attack 0.775 / defence 0.707. League average goals — home 1.402 / away 1.335. Ostersunds FK's defence strength of 0.707 is below average — they are conceding at a rate that inflates the home xG figure. Data: 28 IFK Norrkoping games / 58 Ostersunds FK games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: IFK Norrkoping 40% | Draw 34% | Ostersunds FK 26%. Fair-value odds: IFK Norrkoping 2.50 | Draw 2.94 | Ostersunds FK 3.85. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 34% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 32% | BTTS probability 41% | Total xG 2.00. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 68% probability — total xG of 2.00 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS probability of 41% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, IFK Norrkoping are the pick at 40% — marginal model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 34% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on IFK Norrkoping if the outright odds are short.
Poisson projects 2.00 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 32% probability — marginal — conflicting signals conviction, supported by form averaging 2.1 goals per game — though H2H averaging only 3.6 goals per meeting points in the other direction.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 41% on No. Form rates corroborate: IFK Norrkoping 30% | Ostersunds FK 50% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: IFK Norrkoping vs Ostersunds FK | Competition: Superettan, Regular Season - 29 | Venue: Idrottsparken • Kick-off: Saturday 31 Oct 2026, 12:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: IFK Norrkoping 40% | Draw 34% | Ostersunds FK 26% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 32% | BTTS 41% | xG IFK Norrkoping 1.13 / Ostersunds FK 0.88 • Poisson strength factors: IFK Norrkoping attack 1.139 / def 0.847 | Ostersunds FK attack 0.775 / def 0.707 | league avg home 1.402 / away 1.335 • Poisson stance: IFK Norrkoping (40%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.13
IFK Norrkoping xG
Expected Goals
0.88
Ostersunds FK xG
41%
BTTS
61%
Over 1.5
32%
Over 2.5
14%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does IFK Norrkoping vs Ostersunds FK kick off?
IFK Norrkoping vs Ostersunds FK kicked off at 12:00 on Saturday 31 October 2026 at Idrottsparken.
What was the final score in IFK Norrkoping vs Ostersunds FK?
IFK Norrkoping 3 - 0 Ostersunds FK.
Where is IFK Norrkoping vs Ostersunds FK being played?
The match is being played at Idrottsparken.
What competition is IFK Norrkoping vs Ostersunds FK part of?
IFK Norrkoping vs Ostersunds FK is a Regular Season - 29 fixture in the Superettan (Sweden).
Who is favourite to win IFK Norrkoping vs Ostersunds FK?
Our statistical model gives IFK Norrkoping a 40% chance of winning, Ostersunds FK a 26% chance, and a 34% chance of a draw — making IFK Norrkoping the favourite.
Will both teams score in IFK Norrkoping vs Ostersunds FK?
Our model estimates a 41% probability that both IFK Norrkoping and Ostersunds FK will score (BTTS).
Will IFK Norrkoping vs Ostersunds FK have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 32%.
What is the head-to-head record between IFK Norrkoping and Ostersunds FK?
Record (5 meetings): IFK Norrkoping 4W | Draws 1 | Ostersunds FK 0W.
What form are IFK Norrkoping and Ostersunds FK in?
IFK Norrkoping (all comps): 7W-3D-0L in 10 | 2.40 PPG | GF 2.60 / GA 0.80 | L5 D-W-W-D-W. Ostersunds FK (all comps): 3W-7D-0L in 10 | 1.60 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 0.50 | L5 W-D-D-D-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
The model rates IFK Norrkoping's attack at 1.14x the league average against Ostersunds FK's defence at 0.71x — combine the two and it projects 1.13 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Ostersunds FK's attack (0.78x) against IFK Norrkoping's defence (0.85x) — and the away total comes out at 0.88.
These ratings are built from 28/58 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 0-0 carries the highest individual probability at 15.2% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-1 (15.1%), 1-0 (13.5%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 44% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
IFK Norrkoping Win
40%
2.53
34%
2.94
26%
3.79
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
15.2%
Home win
Most likely
0 – 0
13.5%
Draw
1 – 1
13.3%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.13
IFK Norrkoping xG
Total xG
2.00
0.88
Ostersunds FK xG
2.53
40%
Home win
2.94
34%
Draw
3.79
26%
Away win
Goals Markets
60%
Over 1.5
1.67
40%
Under 1.5
2.50
32%
Over 2.5
3.12
68%
Under 2.5
1.47
14%
Over 3.5
7.14
86%
Under 3.5
1.16
5%
Over 4.5
20.00
95%
Under 4.5
1.05
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
41%
BTTS Yes
2.42
59%
BTTS No
1.70
Clean Sheet
42%
2.40
32%
3.09
Win to Nil
16%
6.07
9%
11.71
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 13.5 | 11.8 | 5.2 | 1.5 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 15.2 | 13.3 | 5.8 | 1.7 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 8.6 | 7.5 | 3.3 | 1.0 | 0.2 | – |
| 3 | 3.2 | 2.8 | 1.2 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 0.9 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for IFK Norrkoping vs Ostersunds FK?
Our Poisson model rates 0-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 15.2%.
How many goals are IFK Norrkoping and Ostersunds FK expected to score?
The model projects 1.13 expected goals for IFK Norrkoping and 0.88 for Ostersunds FK, a combined total of 2.00.
How confident is the prediction model for IFK Norrkoping vs Ostersunds FK?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 40%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
IFK Norrkoping come into this having played 58 games, going 26W 11D 21L for 1.53 points per game. Their last five reads D-W-W-D-W.
On the other side, Ostersunds FK sit at 1.45 PPG from 58 outings (21W 21D 16L), a run that reads W-D-D-D-W across their last five.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.53 PPG for IFK Norrkoping against 1.45 for Ostersunds FK. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
Home & Away Splits
IFK Norrkoping's home form reads 12W 6D 11L across 29 games on their own ground, a 1.45 PPG return.
Away from home, Ostersunds FK have taken 1.03 points per game from 29 outings (6W 12D 11L). That's a step down from their 1.45 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Ostersunds FK's season.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, IFK Norrkoping come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
IFK Norrkoping are averaging 1.57 goals scored and 1.22 conceded per game recently; Ostersunds FK are on 1.22 scored and 1.33 conceded.
Last 58 Results — Superettan
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
IFK Norrkoping
Current Season
Ostersunds FK
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are IFK Norrkoping and Ostersunds FK in coming into this match?
IFK Norrkoping have gone 26W 11D 21L in their last 58 games (1.53 PPG), while Ostersunds FK have gone 21W 21D 16L in their last 58 (1.45 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — IFK Norrkoping at home or Ostersunds FK away?
IFK Norrkoping's home record (1.45 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — IFK Norrkoping at home: 1.45 PPG; Ostersunds FK away: 1.03 PPG.
Have IFK Norrkoping or Ostersunds FK been keeping clean sheets recently?
IFK Norrkoping have kept a clean sheet in 31% of their recent games, Ostersunds FK in 29%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 6 times since June 2020 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. The pairing has crossed competitions too — Allsvenskan, Superettan all feature in the head-to-head log. The two were last together as recently as 31 October 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Records & Recent Trends
There's a clear current trend here: IFK Norrkoping have taken the last 4 head-to-head results.
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: IFK Norrkoping won 3-0 on 29 Aug 2021, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, IFK Norrkoping have gone 2W 1D 0L from 3 meetings on their own ground against Ostersunds FK — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 6 Meetings
5
IFK Norrkoping
1
Draws
0
Ostersunds FK
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between IFK Norrkoping and Ostersunds FK?
From 6 meetings on record, IFK Norrkoping have won 5, Ostersunds FK have won 0, and 1 have been drawn.
When did IFK Norrkoping and Ostersunds FK last play each other?
They last met on 31 October 2026, when IFK Norrkoping 3-0 Ostersunds FK.
Who has won more matches between IFK Norrkoping and Ostersunds FK?
IFK Norrkoping have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 6 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
IFK Norrkoping are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 72% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 41% of the time.
Ostersunds FK see a goal before the break in 59% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 10% of those situations.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — IFK Norrkoping 41%, Ostersunds FK 38% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 59% (IFK Norrkoping) and 28% (Ostersunds FK).
On the defensive side: IFK Norrkoping keep a clean sheet in 34% of their matches; IFK Norrkoping have failed to score in 31% of games; Ostersunds FK in 48%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = IFK Norrkoping home games / Ostersunds FK away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when IFK Norrkoping play Ostersunds FK?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 41% of IFK Norrkoping's recent matches and 38% of Ostersunds FK's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is IFK Norrkoping vs Ostersunds FK usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 59% of IFK Norrkoping's recent games and 28% of Ostersunds FK's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do IFK Norrkoping and Ostersunds FK tend to score early?
IFK Norrkoping have had a goal before half-time in 72% of their recent matches, Ostersunds FK in 59% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant IFK Norrkoping run riot with a 3-0 hammering of Ostersunds FK.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
IFK Norrkoping beat Ostersunds FK 3-0 at Idrottsparken, Regular Season - 29, in the Superettan. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting IFK Norrkoping 1.13 xG and Ostersunds FK 0.88 xG, a combined 2.00. The scoreboard read 3-0 for 3 actual goals. IFK Norrkoping beat their projection by 1.9 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Ostersunds FK landed 0.9 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of IFK Norrkoping attack 1.14 / defence 0.85 against Ostersunds FK attack 0.78 / defence 0.71, drawn from 28/58 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it IFK Norrkoping 40% | Draw 34% | Ostersunds FK 26%, with IFK Norrkoping to win its most likely call at 40%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 32%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 61% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 41% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 48% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (IFK Norrkoping 55%, Ostersunds FK 41%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 49%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
IFK Norrkoping's trading profile (58 games, 29 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 48% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 31% of the time, and duly kept one.
Ostersunds FK's trading profile (58 games, 29 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 31% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — IFK Norrkoping 1.53 PPG, Ostersunds FK 1.45 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the IFK Norrkoping win broke the near-deadlock. IFK Norrkoping (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.59 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 1.21 average — tighter than their form line. Ostersunds FK (home/away splits) shipped 3 against a 1.38 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.