GIF Sundsvall 1-2 Vasteras SK FK – Result & Analysis

Poisson model rates GIF Sundsvall at 49%, yet other data sources diverge — this GIF Sundsvall vs Vasteras SK FK fixture contains genuine analytical tension.

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Full Analysis

NP3 Arena plays host to GIF Sundsvall versus Vasteras SK FK in Superettan, Regular Season - 7. Kick-off: Saturday 10 May 2025 at 14:00 UTC.

Form

GIF Sundsvall (all games): 6W 1D 3L across 10 Superettan fixtures this term — 1.90 PPG. Last five: D W W W W. Offensively they are averaging 1.60 goals per game, with 1.10 conceded. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.

GIF Sundsvall's form when playing at home: 5W 2D 3L across 10 games at NP3 Arena this term (1.70 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.50 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground.

Vasteras SK FK have collected 2.00 PPG across 10 Superettan outings this season: 6W 2D 2L. Last five: W W W L L. They are scoring at 1.50 per game and conceding 0.80. Defensively, 0.80 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. Vasteras SK FK haven't played a Superettan game yet this season, so this record is entirely from last season.

Vasteras SK FK's form when playing away from home: 6W 2D 2L across 10 road games this term (2.00 PPG). Away from home they average 1.50 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game.

Both sides are running at similar form levels — 1.90 PPG for GIF Sundsvall against 2.00 for Vasteras SK FK. There is no clear form edge to exploit here; other signals need to take the lead.

H2H Analysis

The head-to-head record is closely matched — GIF Sundsvall lead 2W to 2W over the last 4 encounters, with 0 draws, though neither side has established a commanding advantage.

The 4 previous meetings have averaged 2.5 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 23 Sep 2023, ended 0–2 with Vasteras SK FK winning.

The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.

Trading Data

GIF Sundsvall goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (30 games, 15 at home): they score before half-time in 53% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 64% of the time; BTTS occurs in 60% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 60% of games (home games); they fail to score in 37% of games.

Vasteras SK FK goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (30 games, 15 at away): they score before half-time in 67% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; BTTS occurs in 53% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 60% of games (away games); they keep a clean sheet 50% of the time.

BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — GIF Sundsvall 47% versus Vasteras SK FK 40%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (GIF Sundsvall 50% | Vasteras SK FK 53%).

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects GIF Sundsvall 1.62 xG and Vasteras SK FK 1.13 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: GIF Sundsvall attack 1.104 / defence 1.013 | Vasteras SK FK attack 0.867 / defence 1.137. League average goals — home 1.291 / away 1.286. Data: 36 GIF Sundsvall games / 6 Vasteras SK FK games used (CurrentSeason).

Result probabilities: GIF Sundsvall 49% | Draw 25% | Vasteras SK FK 27%. Fair-value odds: GIF Sundsvall 2.04 | Draw 4.00 | Vasteras SK FK 3.70. GIF Sundsvall hold a narrow Poisson edge at 49% — the draw (25%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 52% | BTTS probability 54% | Total xG 2.75. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 52%/48% — the total xG of 2.75 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 54% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.

Final Verdict

Poisson rates GIF Sundsvall as the most likely outcome at 49% — moderate model lean. Draw probability of 25% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on GIF Sundsvall if the outright odds are short.

The Poisson model projects 2.75 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 52% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence.

Poisson assigns a 54% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates are neutral: GIF Sundsvall 50% | Vasteras SK FK 50%.

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