GIF Sundsvall 1-2 Landskrona BoIS – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates GIF Sundsvall at 50% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this GIF Sundsvall vs Landskrona BoIS encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
GIF Sundsvall host Landskrona BoIS at NP3 Arena in Superettan, Regular Season - 4. Kick-off is scheduled for Sunday 20 April 2025 at 14:00 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Superettan games this season, GIF Sundsvall have gone 6W 1D 3L from 10 outings — a 1.90 PPG return. Last five: D W W W W. Offensively they are averaging 1.60 goals per game, with 1.10 conceded. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
At home at NP3 Arena, GIF Sundsvall have gone 5W 2D 3L this season (10 games, 1.70 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.50 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground.
Landskrona BoIS — All Games: 3W 2D 5L from 10 Superettan fixtures this season — 1.10 PPG. Last five: W L W D L. Their scoring rate of 1.30 per game is modest, conceding 1.10 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation.
On the road, Landskrona BoIS have gone 4W 1D 5L from 10 away fixtures this term (1.30 PPG). Away from home they average 1.20 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game.
GIF Sundsvall carry the stronger recent momentum — 0.80 PPG ahead of their opponents on 1.90 vs 1.10. The form data is a point in their favour, and where the price allows, it is the cleaner directional bet.
H2H
The rivalry is an even one: 2 wins apiece for GIF Sundsvall, 2 for Landskrona BoIS and 2 shared spoils from 6 past contests. Neither side holds a meaningful historical edge.
The 6 previous meetings have averaged 2.2 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 12 Aug 2024, ended 0–0 with a draw.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
In-Play Data
GIF Sundsvall trading profile (60 games, 30 at home): they score before half-time in 60% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 79% of the time; BTTS occurs in 60% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 57% of games (home games); they fail to score in 35% of games.
Landskrona BoIS trading profile (60 games, 30 at away): they score before half-time in 70% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 69% of the time; BTTS occurs in 57% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 63% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — GIF Sundsvall 48% versus Landskrona BoIS 55%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (GIF Sundsvall 50% | Landskrona BoIS 58%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects GIF Sundsvall 1.71 xG and Landskrona BoIS 1.18 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: GIF Sundsvall attack 1.106 / defence 0.838 | Landskrona BoIS attack 1.182 / defence 1.195. League average goals — home 1.296 / away 1.188. Data: 33 GIF Sundsvall games / 33 Landskrona BoIS games used (Blended). A blend of current and prior-season data is applied to stabilise estimates early in the campaign.
Result probabilities: GIF Sundsvall 50% | Draw 24% | Landskrona BoIS 26%. Fair-value odds: GIF Sundsvall 2.00 | Draw 4.17 | Landskrona BoIS 3.85. GIF Sundsvall hold a narrow Poisson edge at 50% — the draw (24%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 55% | BTTS probability 57% | Total xG 2.89. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 55% — the 2.89 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS probability of 57% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates GIF Sundsvall as the most likely outcome at 50% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 24% draw probability, Draw No Bet on GIF Sundsvall offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.89 combined xG gives a 55% probability to Over 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration.
Poisson assigns a 57% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates are neutral: GIF Sundsvall 50% | Landskrona BoIS 50%.
The Poisson model is drawing on Blended data (33 games minimum) — early-season projections carry additional uncertainty. Weight the live form and odds signals accordingly.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: GIF Sundsvall vs Landskrona BoIS | Competition: Superettan, Regular Season - 4 | Venue: NP3 Arena • Kick-off: Sunday 20 Apr 2025, 14:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: GIF Sundsvall 50% | Draw 24% | Landskrona BoIS 26% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 55% | BTTS 57% | xG GIF Sundsvall 1.71 / Landskrona BoIS 1.18 • Poisson strength factors: GIF Sundsvall attack 1.106 / def 0.838 | Landskrona BoIS attack 1.182 / def 1.195 | league avg home 1.296 / away 1.188 • Poisson stance: GIF Sundsvall (50%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.71
GIF Sundsvall xG
Expected Goals
1.18
Landskrona BoIS xG
57%
BTTS
78%
Over 1.5
55%
Over 2.5
33%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does GIF Sundsvall vs Landskrona BoIS kick off?
GIF Sundsvall vs Landskrona BoIS kicked off at 14:00 on Sunday 20 April 2025 at NP3 Arena.
What was the final score in GIF Sundsvall vs Landskrona BoIS?
GIF Sundsvall 1 - 2 Landskrona BoIS.
Where is GIF Sundsvall vs Landskrona BoIS being played?
The match is being played at NP3 Arena.
What competition is GIF Sundsvall vs Landskrona BoIS part of?
GIF Sundsvall vs Landskrona BoIS is a Regular Season - 4 fixture in the Superettan (Sweden).
Who is favourite to win GIF Sundsvall vs Landskrona BoIS?
Our statistical model gives GIF Sundsvall a 50% chance of winning, Landskrona BoIS a 26% chance, and a 24% chance of a draw — making GIF Sundsvall the favourite.
Will both teams score in GIF Sundsvall vs Landskrona BoIS?
Our model estimates a 57% probability that both GIF Sundsvall and Landskrona BoIS will score (BTTS).
Will GIF Sundsvall vs Landskrona BoIS have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 55%.
What is the head-to-head record between GIF Sundsvall and Landskrona BoIS?
Record (6 meetings): GIF Sundsvall 2W | Draws 2 | Landskrona BoIS 2W.
What form are GIF Sundsvall and Landskrona BoIS in?
GIF Sundsvall (all comps): 6W-1D-3L in 10 | 1.90 PPG | GF 1.60 / GA 1.10 | L5 D-W-W-W-W. Landskrona BoIS (all comps): 3W-2D-5L in 10 | 1.10 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 1.10 | L5 W-L-W-D-L.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Working from GIF Sundsvall's attack rating (1.11) and Landskrona BoIS's defence rating (1.20), the model arrives at 1.71 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Landskrona BoIS's attack versus GIF Sundsvall's defence, projects 1.18 expected goals for the visitors.
The sample (33/33 games) mixes this season and last, since the current campaign is still relatively young.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 12.7%. Close behind: 2-1 (9.6%), 2-0 (8.2%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 30% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
GIF Sundsvall Win
50%
2.00
24%
4.19
26%
3.82
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.2%
Draw
Most likely
2 – 1
9.6%
Home win
1 – 0
9.5%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.71
GIF Sundsvall xG
Total xG
2.89
1.18
Landskrona BoIS xG
2.00
50%
Home win
4.19
24%
Draw
3.82
26%
Away win
Goals Markets
78%
Over 1.5
1.28
22%
Under 1.5
4.55
55%
Over 2.5
1.82
45%
Under 2.5
2.22
33%
Over 3.5
3.03
67%
Under 3.5
1.49
17%
Over 4.5
5.88
83%
Under 4.5
1.20
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
57%
BTTS Yes
1.76
43%
BTTS No
2.31
Clean Sheet
31%
3.24
18%
5.55
Win to Nil
15%
6.50
5%
21.18
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.6 | 6.5 | 3.8 | 1.5 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 9.5 | 11.2 | 6.6 | 2.6 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 8.2 | 9.6 | 5.6 | 2.2 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 4.7 | 5.5 | 3.2 | 1.3 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 2.0 | 2.3 | 1.4 | 0.5 | 0.2 | – |
| 5 | 0.7 | 0.8 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for GIF Sundsvall vs Landskrona BoIS?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.7%.
How many goals are GIF Sundsvall and Landskrona BoIS expected to score?
The model projects 1.71 expected goals for GIF Sundsvall and 1.18 for Landskrona BoIS, a combined total of 2.89.
How confident is the prediction model for GIF Sundsvall vs Landskrona BoIS?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 50%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Across their last 60 outings, GIF Sundsvall have picked up 1.15 PPG on a 18W 15D 27L record — D-W-W-W-W across the most recent five.
Landskrona BoIS's form line: 25W 13D 22L from 60 games, 1.47 PPG, last five W-L-W-D-L.
Form-wise this is close to level: GIF Sundsvall on 1.15 PPG, Landskrona BoIS on 1.47. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
On home soil, GIF Sundsvall have posted 1.40 PPG from 30 outings (11W 9D 10L).
On the road, Landskrona BoIS have gone 11W 5D 14L from 30 away games — 1.27 PPG when travelling.
Goals in Recent Form
GIF Sundsvall are averaging 1.12 goals scored and 1.58 conceded per game recently; Landskrona BoIS are on 1.43 scored and 1.38 conceded.
Last 60 Results — Superettan
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
GIF Sundsvall
Current Season
Landskrona BoIS
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are GIF Sundsvall and Landskrona BoIS in coming into this match?
GIF Sundsvall have gone 18W 15D 27L in their last 60 games (1.15 PPG), while Landskrona BoIS have gone 25W 13D 22L in their last 60 (1.47 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — GIF Sundsvall at home or Landskrona BoIS away?
GIF Sundsvall's home record (1.40 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — GIF Sundsvall at home: 1.40 PPG; Landskrona BoIS away: 1.27 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
9 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to July 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Superettan. They last met on 18 May 2026, roughly 4 months ago.
Streaks & Records
GIF Sundsvall's record when hosting Landskrona BoIS specifically: 3W 0D 2L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 9 Meetings
3
GIF Sundsvall
2
Draws
4
Landskrona BoIS
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between GIF Sundsvall and Landskrona BoIS?
From 9 meetings on record, GIF Sundsvall have won 3, Landskrona BoIS have won 4, and 2 have been drawn.
When did GIF Sundsvall and Landskrona BoIS last play each other?
They last met on 18 May 2026, when GIF Sundsvall 2-1 Landskrona BoIS.
Who has won more matches between GIF Sundsvall and Landskrona BoIS?
Landskrona BoIS have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 9 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
GIF Sundsvall are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 60% of their matches.
Landskrona BoIS are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 70% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 27% of the time.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — GIF Sundsvall 60%, Landskrona BoIS 57% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 57% for GIF Sundsvall and 63% for Landskrona BoIS. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 33% and 27% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Landskrona BoIS in 27%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = GIF Sundsvall home games / Landskrona BoIS away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when GIF Sundsvall play Landskrona BoIS?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 60% of GIF Sundsvall's games and 57% of Landskrona BoIS's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is GIF Sundsvall vs Landskrona BoIS usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 57% of GIF Sundsvall's matches and 63% of Landskrona BoIS's.
Do GIF Sundsvall and Landskrona BoIS tend to score early?
GIF Sundsvall have had a goal before half-time in 60% of their recent matches, Landskrona BoIS in 70% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as Landskrona BoIS defy the odds to beat GIF Sundsvall 1-2.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Landskrona BoIS beat GIF Sundsvall 1-2 at NP3 Arena, Regular Season - 4, in the Superettan. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting GIF Sundsvall 1.71 xG and Landskrona BoIS 1.18 xG, a combined 2.89. The scoreboard read 1-2 for 3 actual goals. Landskrona BoIS outscored their 1.18 projection by 0.8. Those figures were built on strength ratings of GIF Sundsvall attack 1.11 / defence 0.84 against Landskrona BoIS attack 1.18 / defence 1.20, drawn from 33/33 games (Blended).
On the result, the model split it GIF Sundsvall 50% | Draw 24% | Landskrona BoIS 26%, with GIF Sundsvall to win its most likely call at 50%. The actual Landskrona BoIS win had been the model's second-ranked read at 26%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 55%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 78% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 57% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 54% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (GIF Sundsvall 50%, Landskrona BoIS 58%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 52%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
GIF Sundsvall's trading profile (60 games, 30 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 48% of their matches — today it did.
Landskrona BoIS's trading profile (60 games, 30 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 55% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — GIF Sundsvall 1.15 PPG, Landskrona BoIS 1.47 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Landskrona BoIS win broke the near-deadlock.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.