Varbergs BoIS FC 1-1 Degerfors IF – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Varbergs BoIS FC at 38%, yet in-form Degerfors IF provide a compelling counter-argument — this Varbergs BoIS FC vs Degerfors IF fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
Varbergs BoIS FC welcome Degerfors IF to Varberg Energi Arena in Allsvenskan (matchday 28). Kick-off is Saturday 28 October 2023 at 17:30 UK time.
Recent Form
Across their last 10 games, Varbergs BoIS FC have gone 1W 0D 9L — a 0.30 PPG return. Last five: L L L L L. They are averaging 0.50 goals per game and conceding 3.00 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. However, 3.00 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. Both teams have scored in only 20% of their games — a low BTTS rate that suggests clean sheets are a regular occurrence.
In front of their own supporters, Varbergs BoIS FC have posted 1W 0D 9L from their last 10 home games — 0.30 PPG. At home they are averaging 0.70 goals scored and 2.60 conceded per game.
Looking at their last 10 matches, Degerfors IF stand at 3W 1D 6L — 1.00 PPG. Last five: L L L D L. Their scoring rate of 1.00 per game is modest, conceding 1.60 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity.
Degerfors IF's form when playing away from home: 2W 1D 7L across their last 10 road games (0.70 PPG). Away from home they average 0.80 goals scored and 2.40 conceded per game.
Form points away from home here. Degerfors IF's 1.00 PPG return is 0.70 points per game ahead of Varbergs BoIS FC's 0.30 — the visitors are the form-based selection, and Double Chance is an alternative worth pricing if the outright looks tight.
H2H
The H2H picture is flat: the 5 H2H matches we hold have produced 1 wins for Varbergs BoIS FC, 0 for Degerfors IF and 4 draws. Form and model data should carry more weight here.
Goals have been at a premium in this fixture — just 1.8 per game across the 5 H2H matches we hold, giving Under 2.5 a clear head-to-head base rate. The most recent of those, on 29 May 2023, ended Varbergs BoIS FC 1–1 Degerfors IF — a draw.
With a balanced win record and just 1.8 goals per game, the H2H data points toward a tight, low-scoring contest — Under 2.5 is the stronger head-to-head angle regardless of which side wins.
In-Play Data
Varbergs BoIS FC trading profile (last 57 games, 28 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 64% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 71% of the time; of the 14 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 36%; BTTS occurs in 39% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 54% of games (home games); they fail to score in 46% of games.
Degerfors IF trading profile (last 57 games, 28 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 79% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 69% of the time; of the 4 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 25%; BTTS occurs in 57% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 57% of games (away games); they fail to score in 35% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Varbergs BoIS FC 47% versus Degerfors IF 58%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Varbergs BoIS FC 60% | Degerfors IF 56%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Varbergs BoIS FC 1.36 xG and Degerfors IF 1.32 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Varbergs BoIS FC attack 0.718 / defence 1.377 | Degerfors IF attack 0.796 / defence 1.297. League average goals — home 1.458 / away 1.204. Varbergs BoIS FC's attack rating of 0.718 is below the league average, which holds their xG down at 1.36. Degerfors IF's defence rating of 1.297 (above 1 = concedes more than average) is pushing Varbergs BoIS FC's projected output up. Degerfors IF's attack rating of 0.796 is below the league average, which holds their xG down at 1.32. Varbergs BoIS FC's defence rating of 1.377 (above 1 = concedes more than average) is pushing Degerfors IF's projected output up. Data: built from Varbergs BoIS FC's last 57 games and Degerfors IF's last 57.
Result probabilities: Varbergs BoIS FC 38% | Draw 26% | Degerfors IF 36%. Fair-value odds: Varbergs BoIS FC 2.64 | Draw 3.85 | Degerfors IF 2.77. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome reaches 45%. The draw at 26% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 50% | BTTS Yes probability 54% | Total xG 2.68. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 50%/50% — the total xG of 2.68 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS Yes at 54% is only a slight lean — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Varbergs BoIS FC as the most likely outcome at 38% — marginal model lean. Note a divergence: in-form Degerfors IF (1.00 PPG) cuts against the Poisson lean — the model adjusts for opposition strength, which raw form results do not. With a 26% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Varbergs BoIS FC offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 36% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.68 combined xG gives a 50% probability to Over 2.5 — mixed conviction, supported by recent form (Varbergs BoIS FC's last 10 home games and Degerfors IF's last 10 away games) averaging 3.2 goals per game — though the H2H data averaging only 1.8 goals per game across 5 H2H matches points the other way.
Poisson assigns a 54% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates are neutral — both teams scored in: Varbergs BoIS FC 40% (last 10 home games) | Degerfors IF 50% (last 10 away games).
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Varbergs BoIS FC vs Degerfors IF | Competition: Allsvenskan, matchday 28 | Venue: Varberg Energi Arena • Kick-off: Saturday 28 October 2023 at 17:30 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Varbergs BoIS FC 38% | Draw 26% | Degerfors IF 36% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 50% (Under 50%) | BTTS Yes 54% (No 46%) | xG Varbergs BoIS FC 1.36 / Degerfors IF 1.32 • Poisson strength factors: Varbergs BoIS FC attack 0.718 / def 1.377 | Degerfors IF attack 0.796 / def 1.297 | league avg home 1.458 / away 1.204 • Poisson stance: Varbergs BoIS FC (38%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.36
Varbergs BoIS FC xG
Expected Goals
1.32
Degerfors IF xG
54%
BTTS
75%
Over 1.5
50%
Over 2.5
28%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Varbergs BoIS FC vs Degerfors IF FAQs
What time does Varbergs BoIS FC vs Degerfors IF kick off?
Varbergs BoIS FC vs Degerfors IF kicked off at 17:30 UK time on Saturday 28 October 2023 at Varberg Energi Arena.
What was the final score in Varbergs BoIS FC vs Degerfors IF?
Varbergs BoIS FC 1 - 1 Degerfors IF.
Where is Varbergs BoIS FC vs Degerfors IF being played?
The match is being played at Varberg Energi Arena.
What competition is Varbergs BoIS FC vs Degerfors IF part of?
Varbergs BoIS FC vs Degerfors IF is a Allsvenskan fixture (matchday 28) (Sweden).
Who is favourite to win Varbergs BoIS FC vs Degerfors IF?
Our statistical model gives Varbergs BoIS FC a 38% chance of winning, Degerfors IF a 36% chance, and a 26% chance of a draw — making Varbergs BoIS FC the favourite.
Will both teams score in Varbergs BoIS FC vs Degerfors IF?
Our model estimates a 54% probability that both Varbergs BoIS FC and Degerfors IF will score, so it leans towards BTTS Yes.
Will Varbergs BoIS FC vs Degerfors IF have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 50% — effectively a coin flip.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Varbergs BoIS FC's attacking strength (0.72x league average) is weighed against Degerfors IF's defensive record (1.30x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.36. The same calculation in reverse, Degerfors IF's attack versus Varbergs BoIS FC's defence, projects 1.32 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from Varbergs BoIS FC's last 57 games and Degerfors IF's last 57 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 13.9%. Close behind: 0-0 (8.5%), 2-1 (8.4%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 31% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Varbergs BoIS FC Win
38%
2.64
26%
3.85
36%
2.77
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.3%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
9.3%
Home win
0 – 1
9.1%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.36
Varbergs BoIS FC xG
Total xG
2.68
1.32
Degerfors IF xG
2.64
38%
Home win
3.85
26%
Draw
2.77
36%
Away win
Goals Markets
75%
Over 1.5
1.33
25%
Under 1.5
4.00
50%
Over 2.5
2.00
50%
Under 2.5
2.00
28%
Over 3.5
3.57
72%
Under 3.5
1.39
13%
Over 4.5
7.69
87%
Under 4.5
1.15
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
54%
BTTS Yes
1.84
46%
BTTS No
2.19
Clean Sheet
27%
3.74
26%
3.88
Win to Nil
10%
9.87
9%
10.74
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.9 | 9.1 | 6.0 | 2.6 | 0.9 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 9.3 | 12.3 | 8.1 | 3.6 | 1.2 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 6.3 | 8.4 | 5.5 | 2.4 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 2.9 | 3.8 | 2.5 | 1.1 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.0 | 1.3 | 0.8 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Varbergs BoIS FC vs Degerfors IF Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Varbergs BoIS FC vs Degerfors IF?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.9%.
How many goals are Varbergs BoIS FC and Degerfors IF expected to score?
The model projects 1.36 expected goals for Varbergs BoIS FC and 1.32 for Degerfors IF, a combined total of 2.68.
How confident is the prediction model for Varbergs BoIS FC vs Degerfors IF?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 38%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Varbergs BoIS FC come into this having played 57 games, going 12W 12D 33L for 0.84 points per game. Their last five reads L-L-L-L-L.
On the other side, Degerfors IF sit at 0.96 PPG from 57 outings (14W 13D 30L), a run that reads L-L-L-D-L across their last five.
Form-wise this is close to level: Varbergs BoIS FC on 0.84 PPG, Degerfors IF on 0.96. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
Varbergs BoIS FC's home form reads 6W 8D 14L across their last 28 home games, a 0.93 PPG return.
Away from home, Degerfors IF have taken 0.61 points per game from their last 28 away games (4W 5D 19L).
The Goals Picture
Varbergs BoIS FC are averaging 0.96 goals scored and 2.04 conceded per game recently; Degerfors IF are on 1.02 scored and 1.86 conceded.
Last 57 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Varbergs BoIS FC
Blended
Degerfors IF
Blended
Varbergs BoIS FC (Home) vs Degerfors IF (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Varbergs BoIS FC
Blended
Degerfors IF
Blended
❓ Varbergs BoIS FC vs Degerfors IF Form FAQs
What form are Varbergs BoIS FC and Degerfors IF in coming into this match?
Varbergs BoIS FC have gone 12W 12D 33L in their last 57 games (0.84 PPG), while Degerfors IF have gone 14W 13D 30L in their last 57 (0.96 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Varbergs BoIS FC at home or Degerfors IF away?
Varbergs BoIS FC's home record (0.93 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Varbergs BoIS FC at home: 0.93 PPG; Degerfors IF away: 0.61 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The head-to-head numbers here are drawn from the 8 H2H matches in our data, going back to July 2021. They cover more than one competition — Allsvenskan, Superettan. The most recent in our data was on 27 October 2024, some 2 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Digging Into the Numbers
The most recent 5 H2H matches in our data have all been drawn — an unusually settled run for this fixture.
Varbergs BoIS FC's record when hosting Degerfors IF specifically: 1W 3D 0L from 4 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 8 Meetings
1
Varbergs BoIS FC
7
Draws
0
Degerfors IF
Recent Meetings
❓ Varbergs BoIS FC vs Degerfors IF H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Varbergs BoIS FC and Degerfors IF?
Across the 8 head-to-head matches in our data, Varbergs BoIS FC have won 1, Degerfors IF have won 0, and 7 have been drawn.
When did Varbergs BoIS FC and Degerfors IF last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 27 October 2024: Varbergs BoIS FC 0-0 Degerfors IF.
Who has won more matches between Varbergs BoIS FC and Degerfors IF?
Varbergs BoIS FC have the better head-to-head record, with 1 wins from the 8 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Varbergs BoIS FC are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 64% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 32% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 44% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 11% of those situations.
Degerfors IF are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 79% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 17% of those situations.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Varbergs BoIS FC 39%, Degerfors IF 57% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 54% (Varbergs BoIS FC) and 57% (Degerfors IF). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 21% and 39% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Varbergs BoIS FC have failed to score in 50% of games; Degerfors IF in 39%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Varbergs BoIS FC home games / Degerfors IF away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Varbergs BoIS FC vs Degerfors IF Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Varbergs BoIS FC and Degerfors IF matches?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 39% of Varbergs BoIS FC's recent matches and 57% of Degerfors IF's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Are Varbergs BoIS FC and Degerfors IF matches usually high-scoring?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 54% of Varbergs BoIS FC's matches and 57% of Degerfors IF's.
Do Varbergs BoIS FC and Degerfors IF matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 64% of Varbergs BoIS FC's recent matches and 79% of Degerfors IF's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Varbergs BoIS FC and Degerfors IF share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Varbergs BoIS FC and Degerfors IF finished level at 1-1 at Varberg Energi Arena, Regular Season - 28, in the Allsvenskan. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Varbergs BoIS FC 1.36 xG and Degerfors IF 1.32 xG, a combined 2.68. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Varbergs BoIS FC attack 0.72 / defence 1.38 against Degerfors IF attack 0.80 / defence 1.30, drawn from 57/57 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Varbergs BoIS FC 38% | Draw 26% | Degerfors IF 36%, with Varbergs BoIS FC to win its most likely call at 38%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 26%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 50%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 75% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 54% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 58% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Varbergs BoIS FC 60%, Degerfors IF 56%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 53%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Varbergs BoIS FC's trading profile (57 games, 28 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 47% of their matches — today it did.
Degerfors IF's trading profile (57 games, 28 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 58% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Varbergs BoIS FC 0.84 PPG, Degerfors IF 0.96 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. Degerfors IF (home/away splits) conceded 1 against a 2.36 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.