Degerfors IF 1-3 Kalmar FF – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Kalmar FF at 38% — the H2H record provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Degerfors IF vs Kalmar FF encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Stora Valla plays host to Degerfors IF versus Kalmar FF in Allsvenskan, Regular Season - 27. Kick-off: Saturday 21 October 2023 at 14:00 UTC.
Form & Momentum
Degerfors IF have collected 1.00 PPG across 10 Allsvenskan outings this season: 3W 1D 6L. Last five: W L L L D. They are averaging 0.90 goals per game and conceding 1.40 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. This season is still relatively young for Degerfors IF, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Degerfors IF's home record at Stora Valla: 3W 2D 5L from 10 Allsvenskan appearances (1.10 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.00 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game.
Kalmar FF's overall Allsvenskan record this term: 4W 2D 4L from 10 games (1.40 PPG). Last five: L W W L W. Their scoring rate of 0.90 per game is modest, conceding 1.10 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. Both teams have scored in only 20% of their fixtures — a very low rate that strongly backs BTTS No. This season is still relatively young for Kalmar FF, so this record blends games from this season and last.
When travelling in Allsvenskan this season, Kalmar FF have posted 3W 2D 5L from 10 away outings — 1.10 PPG. Away from home they average 1.10 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game.
Neither side holds a meaningful form edge. The 1.00 vs 1.40 PPG split is negligible — model and market signals should carry more analytical weight for this one.
H2H History
Kalmar FF hold the superior head-to-head record in this fixture, claiming 4 wins from 5 meetings. The hosts have won just 1 times in that span.
Attacking output has been a hallmark of this fixture. At 2.8 goals per game across 5 meetings, the Over 2.5 has a statistically grounded case from the head-to-head record alone. The most recent clash, on 10 Jun 2023, ended 1–2 with Kalmar FF winning.
The H2H provides genuine backing for the away side. Kalmar FF have won 4 of 5 previous encounters, and at 2.8 goals per game, the goals market also points upward. The away win and Over 2.5 combination has a historical case worth noting.
Trading Data
Degerfors IF goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (56 games, 28 at home): they score before half-time in 75% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 69% of the time; BTTS occurs in 57% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 54% of games (home games); they fail to score in 36% of games.
Kalmar FF goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (56 games, 28 at away): they score before half-time in 75% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 81% of the time; BTTS occurs in 54% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (away games); they keep a clean sheet 41% of the time.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Degerfors IF 57% versus Kalmar FF 43%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Degerfors IF 55% | Kalmar FF 39%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Degerfors IF 1.21 xG and Kalmar FF 1.27 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Degerfors IF attack 0.878 / defence 1.082 | Kalmar FF attack 0.965 / defence 0.983. League average goals — home 1.403 / away 1.213. Data: 56 Degerfors IF games / 56 Kalmar FF games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Degerfors IF 35% | Draw 27% | Kalmar FF 38%. Fair-value odds: Degerfors IF 2.86 | Draw 3.70 | Kalmar FF 2.63. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 27% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 45% | BTTS probability 50% | Total xG 2.48. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 55% — total xG of 2.48 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 50% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates Kalmar FF as the most likely outcome at 38% — marginal model lean. Draw probability of 27% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Kalmar FF if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 35% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 2.48 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 45% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction — though H2H averaging only 2.8 goals per meeting points in the other direction.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 50% on Yes. Form rates are neutral: Degerfors IF 50% | Kalmar FF 50%.
The outsider holds a 35% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Degerfors IF vs Kalmar FF | Competition: Allsvenskan, Regular Season - 27 | Venue: Stora Valla • Kick-off: Saturday 21 Oct 2023, 14:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Degerfors IF 35% | Draw 27% | Kalmar FF 38% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 45% | BTTS 50% | xG Degerfors IF 1.21 / Kalmar FF 1.27 • Poisson strength factors: Degerfors IF attack 0.878 / def 1.082 | Kalmar FF attack 0.965 / def 0.983 | league avg home 1.403 / away 1.213 • Poisson stance: Kalmar FF (38%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.21
Degerfors IF xG
Expected Goals
1.27
Kalmar FF xG
50%
BTTS
71%
Over 1.5
45%
Over 2.5
24%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Degerfors IF vs Kalmar FF kick off?
Degerfors IF vs Kalmar FF kicked off at 14:00 on Saturday 21 October 2023 at Stora Valla.
What was the final score in Degerfors IF vs Kalmar FF?
Degerfors IF 1 - 3 Kalmar FF.
Where is Degerfors IF vs Kalmar FF being played?
The match is being played at Stora Valla.
What competition is Degerfors IF vs Kalmar FF part of?
Degerfors IF vs Kalmar FF is a Regular Season - 27 fixture in the Allsvenskan (Sweden).
Who is favourite to win Degerfors IF vs Kalmar FF?
Our statistical model gives Degerfors IF a 35% chance of winning, Kalmar FF a 38% chance, and a 27% chance of a draw — making Kalmar FF the favourite.
Will both teams score in Degerfors IF vs Kalmar FF?
Our model estimates a 50% probability that both Degerfors IF and Kalmar FF will score (BTTS).
Will Degerfors IF vs Kalmar FF have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 45%.
What is the head-to-head record between Degerfors IF and Kalmar FF?
Record (5 meetings): Degerfors IF 1W | Draws 0 | Kalmar FF 4W.
What form are Degerfors IF and Kalmar FF in?
Degerfors IF (all comps): 3W-1D-6L in 10 | 1.00 PPG | GF 0.90 / GA 1.40 | L5 W-L-L-L-D. Kalmar FF (all comps): 4W-2D-4L in 10 | 1.40 PPG | GF 0.90 / GA 1.10 | L5 L-W-W-L-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Working from Degerfors IF's attack rating (0.88) and Kalmar FF's defence rating (0.98), the model arrives at 1.21 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Kalmar FF's attack (0.96x) against Degerfors IF's defence (1.08x) — and the away total comes out at 1.27.
These ratings are built from 56/56 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 14.6%. Close behind: 0-0 (10.1%), 0-1 (9.0%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 34% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Kalmar FF Win
35%
2.85
27%
3.68
38%
2.65
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.9%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
10.6%
Away win
1 – 0
10.2%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.21
Degerfors IF xG
Total xG
2.48
1.27
Kalmar FF xG
2.85
35%
Home win
3.68
27%
Draw
2.65
38%
Away win
Goals Markets
71%
Over 1.5
1.41
29%
Under 1.5
3.45
45%
Over 2.5
2.22
55%
Under 2.5
1.82
24%
Over 3.5
4.17
76%
Under 3.5
1.32
11%
Over 4.5
9.09
89%
Under 4.5
1.12
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
50%
BTTS Yes
1.98
50%
BTTS No
2.02
Clean Sheet
28%
3.55
30%
3.36
Win to Nil
10%
10.10
11%
8.89
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8.4 | 10.6 | 6.7 | 2.8 | 0.9 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 10.2 | 12.9 | 8.2 | 3.4 | 1.1 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 6.2 | 7.8 | 4.9 | 2.1 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 2.5 | 3.1 | 2.0 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.8 | 1.0 | 0.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Degerfors IF vs Kalmar FF?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.6%.
How many goals are Degerfors IF and Kalmar FF expected to score?
The model projects 1.21 expected goals for Degerfors IF and 1.27 for Kalmar FF, a combined total of 2.48.
How confident is the prediction model for Degerfors IF vs Kalmar FF?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 38%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Across their last 56 outings, Degerfors IF have picked up 0.98 PPG on a 14W 13D 29L record — W-L-L-L-D across the most recent five. The sample for Degerfors IF is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Kalmar FF's form line: 26W 12D 18L from 56 games, 1.61 PPG, last five L-W-W-L-W. The sample for Kalmar FF is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Put side by side, Kalmar FF are the form team by 0.63 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Degerfors IF.
Home & Away Splits
On home soil, Degerfors IF have posted 1.36 PPG from 28 outings (10W 8D 10L).
On the road, Kalmar FF have gone 9W 7D 12L from 28 away games — 1.21 PPG when travelling. That's a step down from their 1.61 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Kalmar FF's season.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Degerfors IF are averaging 1.02 goals scored and 1.84 conceded per game recently; Kalmar FF are on 1.25 scored and 1.05 conceded.
Defensively: Kalmar FF in 41% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 56 Results — Allsvenskan
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Degerfors IF
Blended
Kalmar FF
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Degerfors IF and Kalmar FF in coming into this match?
Degerfors IF have gone 14W 13D 29L in their last 56 games (0.98 PPG), while Kalmar FF have gone 26W 12D 18L in their last 56 (1.61 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Degerfors IF at home or Kalmar FF away?
Degerfors IF's home record (1.36 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Degerfors IF at home: 1.36 PPG; Kalmar FF away: 1.21 PPG.
Have Degerfors IF or Kalmar FF been keeping clean sheets recently?
Degerfors IF have kept a clean sheet in 14% of their recent games, Kalmar FF in 41%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 7 times since April 2021 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Allsvenskan. The two were last together as recently as 23 May 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Records & Recent Trends
Kalmar FF go into this on the back of 3 straight wins in the series — the current momentum sits squarely with them.
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Kalmar FF won 4-1 on 12 Sep 2021, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Degerfors IF have gone 1W 0D 2L from 3 meetings on their own ground against Kalmar FF — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 7 Meetings
1
Degerfors IF
0
Draws
6
Kalmar FF
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Degerfors IF and Kalmar FF?
From 7 meetings on record, Degerfors IF have won 1, Kalmar FF have won 6, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Degerfors IF and Kalmar FF last play each other?
They last met on 23 May 2026, when Kalmar FF 2-1 Degerfors IF.
Who has won more matches between Degerfors IF and Kalmar FF?
Kalmar FF have the better head-to-head record, with 6 wins from 7 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Degerfors IF are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 75% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 14% of those situations.
Kalmar FF are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 75% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 11% of those situations.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Degerfors IF 57%, Kalmar FF 54% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 54% (Degerfors IF) and 50% (Kalmar FF).
On the defensive side: Degerfors IF have failed to score in 32% of games; Kalmar FF in 29%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Degerfors IF home games / Kalmar FF away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Degerfors IF play Kalmar FF?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 57% of Degerfors IF's games and 54% of Kalmar FF's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Degerfors IF vs Kalmar FF usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 54% of Degerfors IF's recent games and 50% of Kalmar FF's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Degerfors IF and Kalmar FF tend to score early?
Degerfors IF have had a goal before half-time in 75% of their recent matches, Kalmar FF in 75% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Kalmar FF cruise to a comfortable 1-3 victory over Degerfors IF.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Kalmar FF beat Degerfors IF 1-3 at Stora Valla, Regular Season - 27, in the Allsvenskan. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Degerfors IF 1.21 xG and Kalmar FF 1.27 xG, a combined 2.48. The scoreboard read 1-3 for 4 actual goals. Kalmar FF outscored their 1.27 projection by 1.7. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Degerfors IF attack 0.88 / defence 1.08 against Kalmar FF attack 0.96 / defence 0.98, drawn from 56/56 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Degerfors IF 35% | Draw 27% | Kalmar FF 38%, with Kalmar FF to win its most likely call at 38%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 45%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 71% and landed. Over 3.5 was 24% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 50% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 47% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Degerfors IF 55%, Kalmar FF 39%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 50%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Degerfors IF's trading profile (56 games, 28 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 57% of their matches — today it did.
Kalmar FF's trading profile (56 games, 28 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 43% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 41% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
On form, Kalmar FF arrived the stronger side — 1.61 PPG against 0.98. The form guide was vindicated by the result. Degerfors IF (home/away splits) shipped 3 against a 1.32 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Kalmar FF (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.25 average — above their attacking norm.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit), form (hit). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.