Mjallby AIF 2-0 IFK Varnamo – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Mjallby AIF at 71%, yet other data sources diverge — this Mjallby AIF vs IFK Varnamo fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Allsvenskan encounter, Regular Season - 12 sees IFK Varnamo travel to Strandvallen to take on Mjallby AIF. The game is scheduled for Sunday 1 June 2025, 15:30 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Mjallby AIF stand at 4W 5D 1L from 10 Allsvenskan matches — 1.70 PPG. Last five: W W D D W. They are averaging 1.30 goals per game and conceding 0.80 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. Defensively, conceding just 0.80 per game is an exceptional defensive record — one of the tightest in the division. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
Mjallby AIF at Strandvallen this season: 6W 3D 1L from 10 home games — 2.10 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.70 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 90% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Across all Allsvenskan games this season, IFK Varnamo have recorded 3W 6D 1L from 10 outings — 1.50 PPG. Last five: L W D D W. Their scoring rate of 1.00 per game is modest, conceding 0.70 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Defensively, 0.70 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not.
On the road, IFK Varnamo have gone 1W 6D 3L from 10 away fixtures this term (0.90 PPG). Away from home they average 0.70 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game. Their away PPG of 0.90 is notably below their overall 1.50 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
The form comparison is too close to call — 1.70 PPG (Mjallby AIF) versus 1.50 (IFK Varnamo). When the figures are this level, no pick can be reliably derived from recent results alone.
H2H Record
The H2H landscape is flat: 6 previous encounters have yielded 2 wins for Mjallby AIF, 2 for IFK Varnamo and 2 draws. A neutral reading in isolation.
The 6 previous meetings have averaged 2.7 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 25 Sep 2024, ended 1–1 with a draw.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
Trading Patterns
Mjallby AIF in-play and half-time data (60 games, 30 at home): they score before half-time in 70% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 85% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 55% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 60% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 53% of games (home games).
IFK Varnamo in-play and half-time data (60 games, 30 at away): they score before half-time in 77% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 72% of the time; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 47% of games (away games); they fail to score in 30% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Mjallby AIF 50% versus IFK Varnamo 47%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Mjallby AIF 48% | IFK Varnamo 45%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Mjallby AIF 2.20 xG and IFK Varnamo 0.72 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Mjallby AIF attack 1.263 / defence 0.678 | IFK Varnamo attack 0.792 / defence 1.328. League average goals — home 1.313 / away 1.336. Mjallby AIF carry an above-average attack strength of 1.263 — their λ of 2.20 reflects genuine attacking quality above the league norm. IFK Varnamo bring a strong defensive rating of 1.328 — this is suppressing Mjallby AIF's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Mjallby AIF's defence rating of 0.678 is below average — the home backline is amplifying the visitor's projected output. Data: 42 Mjallby AIF games / 41 IFK Varnamo games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Mjallby AIF 71% | Draw 18% | IFK Varnamo 11%. Fair-value odds: Mjallby AIF 1.41 | Draw 5.56 | IFK Varnamo 9.09. The model has a clear lean to Mjallby AIF (71%) — a 60pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 56% | BTTS probability 46% | Total xG 2.92. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 56% — the 2.92 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS probability of 46% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Mjallby AIF at 71% — clear model lean. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 18% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
Poisson projects 2.92 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 56% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 46%. This conflicts with form data: Mjallby AIF 90% | IFK Varnamo 50% from recent games — a notable divergence.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Mjallby AIF vs IFK Varnamo | Competition: Allsvenskan, Regular Season - 12 | Venue: Strandvallen • Kick-off: Sunday 1 Jun 2025, 15:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Mjallby AIF 71% | Draw 18% | IFK Varnamo 11% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 56% | BTTS 46% | xG Mjallby AIF 2.20 / IFK Varnamo 0.72 • Poisson strength factors: Mjallby AIF attack 1.263 / def 0.678 | IFK Varnamo attack 0.792 / def 1.328 | league avg home 1.313 / away 1.336 • Poisson stance: Mjallby AIF (71%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
2.20
Mjallby AIF xG
Expected Goals
0.72
IFK Varnamo xG
46%
BTTS
79%
Over 1.5
56%
Over 2.5
33%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Mjallby AIF vs IFK Varnamo kick off?
Mjallby AIF vs IFK Varnamo kicked off at 15:30 on Sunday 1 June 2025 at Strandvallen.
What was the final score in Mjallby AIF vs IFK Varnamo?
Mjallby AIF 2 - 0 IFK Varnamo.
Where is Mjallby AIF vs IFK Varnamo being played?
The match is being played at Strandvallen.
What competition is Mjallby AIF vs IFK Varnamo part of?
Mjallby AIF vs IFK Varnamo is a Regular Season - 12 fixture in the Allsvenskan (Sweden).
Who is favourite to win Mjallby AIF vs IFK Varnamo?
Our statistical model gives Mjallby AIF a 71% chance of winning, IFK Varnamo a 11% chance, and a 18% chance of a draw — making Mjallby AIF the favourite.
Will both teams score in Mjallby AIF vs IFK Varnamo?
Our model estimates a 46% probability that both Mjallby AIF and IFK Varnamo will score (BTTS).
Will Mjallby AIF vs IFK Varnamo have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 56%.
What is the head-to-head record between Mjallby AIF and IFK Varnamo?
Record (6 meetings): Mjallby AIF 2W | Draws 2 | IFK Varnamo 2W.
What form are Mjallby AIF and IFK Varnamo in?
Mjallby AIF (all comps): 4W-5D-1L in 10 | 1.70 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 0.80 | L5 W-W-D-D-W. IFK Varnamo (all comps): 3W-6D-1L in 10 | 1.50 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 0.70 | L5 L-W-D-D-W.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Mjallby AIF's attacking strength (1.26x league average) is weighed against IFK Varnamo's defensive record (1.33x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 2.20. The same calculation in reverse, IFK Varnamo's attack versus Mjallby AIF's defence, projects 0.72 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 42/41 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 2-0, at 13.1%. Close behind: 1-0 (10.8%), 1-1 (9.6%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 33% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Mjallby AIF Win
71%
1.40
18%
5.58
11%
9.35
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
2 – 0
13.1%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 0
11.9%
Home win
3 – 0
9.6%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
2.20
Mjallby AIF xG
Total xG
2.92
0.72
IFK Varnamo xG
1.40
71%
Home win
5.58
18%
Draw
9.35
11%
Away win
Goals Markets
79%
Over 1.5
1.27
21%
Under 1.5
4.76
56%
Over 2.5
1.79
44%
Under 2.5
2.27
33%
Over 3.5
3.03
67%
Under 3.5
1.49
17%
Over 4.5
5.88
83%
Under 4.5
1.20
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
46%
BTTS Yes
2.20
54%
BTTS No
1.84
Clean Sheet
49%
2.05
11%
9.05
Win to Nil
35%
2.87
1%
84.60
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.4 | 3.9 | 1.4 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 1 | 11.9 | 8.5 | 3.1 | 0.7 | 0.1 | – |
| 2 | 13.1 | 9.4 | 3.4 | 0.8 | 0.1 | – |
| 3 | 9.6 | 6.9 | 2.5 | 0.6 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 5.3 | 3.8 | 1.4 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 2.3 | 1.7 | 0.6 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Mjallby AIF vs IFK Varnamo?
Our Poisson model rates 2-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.1%.
How many goals are Mjallby AIF and IFK Varnamo expected to score?
The model projects 2.20 expected goals for Mjallby AIF and 0.72 for IFK Varnamo, a combined total of 2.92.
How confident is the prediction model for Mjallby AIF vs IFK Varnamo?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 71%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Mjallby AIF's recent record stands at 26W 13D 21L from 60 games, a 1.52 PPG return, with W-W-D-D-W in the last five.
IFK Varnamo, meanwhile, have gone 21W 14D 25L across 60 games — 1.28 PPG, with L-W-D-D-W in their last five.
Form-wise this is close to level: Mjallby AIF on 1.52 PPG, IFK Varnamo on 1.28. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
At home specifically, Mjallby AIF have managed 13W 8D 9L from 30 games — 1.57 PPG in front of their own supporters.
IFK Varnamo's away record stands at 12W 8D 10L across 30 trips, a 1.47 PPG haul.
Goals in Recent Form
Mjallby AIF are averaging 1.27 goals scored and 1.15 conceded per game recently; IFK Varnamo are on 1.15 scored and 1.25 conceded.
Last 60 Results — Allsvenskan
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Mjallby AIF
Current Season
IFK Varnamo
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Mjallby AIF and IFK Varnamo in coming into this match?
Mjallby AIF have gone 26W 13D 21L in their last 60 games (1.52 PPG), while IFK Varnamo have gone 21W 14D 25L in their last 60 (1.28 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Mjallby AIF at home or IFK Varnamo away?
Mjallby AIF's home record (1.57 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Mjallby AIF at home: 1.57 PPG; IFK Varnamo away: 1.47 PPG.
Have Mjallby AIF or IFK Varnamo been keeping clean sheets recently?
Mjallby AIF have kept a clean sheet in 27% of their recent games, IFK Varnamo in 32%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
8 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to May 2022. Every recorded meeting has come in Allsvenskan. They last met on 3 November 2025, roughly 10 months ago.
Streaks & Records
Mjallby AIF have won the last 2 meetings between these two, a run that gives them the psychological edge coming in.
The biggest gap between the sides came on 3 Nov 2025, when Mjallby AIF won 0-5 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Mjallby AIF's record when hosting IFK Varnamo specifically: 1W 2D 1L from 4 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 8 Meetings
4
Mjallby AIF
2
Draws
2
IFK Varnamo
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Mjallby AIF and IFK Varnamo?
From 8 meetings on record, Mjallby AIF have won 4, IFK Varnamo have won 2, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Mjallby AIF and IFK Varnamo last play each other?
They last met on 3 November 2025, when IFK Varnamo 0-5 Mjallby AIF.
Who has won more matches between Mjallby AIF and IFK Varnamo?
Mjallby AIF have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 8 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Mjallby AIF are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 70% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 40% of the time.
IFK Varnamo are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 77% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 40% of the time.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Mjallby AIF 60%, IFK Varnamo 50% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 53% (Mjallby AIF) and 47% (IFK Varnamo).
On the defensive side: IFK Varnamo in 33%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Mjallby AIF home games / IFK Varnamo away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Mjallby AIF play IFK Varnamo?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 60% of Mjallby AIF's games and 50% of IFK Varnamo's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Mjallby AIF vs IFK Varnamo usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 53% of Mjallby AIF's recent games and 47% of IFK Varnamo's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Mjallby AIF and IFK Varnamo tend to score early?
Mjallby AIF have had a goal before half-time in 70% of their recent matches, IFK Varnamo in 77% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Mjallby AIF cruise to a comfortable 2-0 victory over IFK Varnamo.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Mjallby AIF beat IFK Varnamo 2-0 at Strandvallen, Regular Season - 12, in the Allsvenskan. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Mjallby AIF 2.20 xG and IFK Varnamo 0.72 xG, a combined 2.92. The scoreboard read 2-0 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Mjallby AIF attack 1.26 / defence 0.68 against IFK Varnamo attack 0.79 / defence 1.33, drawn from 42/41 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Mjallby AIF 71% | Draw 18% | IFK Varnamo 11%, with Mjallby AIF to win its most likely call at 71%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 56%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 79% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 46% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 47% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Mjallby AIF 48%, IFK Varnamo 45%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 48%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Mjallby AIF's trading profile (60 games, 30 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did not.
IFK Varnamo's trading profile (60 games, 30 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 47% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 32% of the time, and conceded here; they fail to score in 30% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Mjallby AIF 1.52 PPG, IFK Varnamo 1.28 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Mjallby AIF win broke the near-deadlock. Mjallby AIF (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.17 average — tighter than their form line. IFK Varnamo (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.37 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 2 against a 1.20 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.