IFK Varnamo 1-2 Sirius – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates IFK Varnamo at 39%, yet other data sources diverge — this IFK Varnamo vs Sirius fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Allsvenskan encounter, Regular Season - 1 sees Sirius travel to Finnvedsvallen to take on IFK Varnamo. The game is scheduled for Monday 31 March 2025, 18:00 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Allsvenskan games this season, IFK Varnamo have gone 3W 6D 1L from 10 outings — a 1.50 PPG return. Last five: L W D D W. They are averaging 1.00 goals per game and conceding 0.70 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. Defensively, conceding just 0.70 per game is an exceptional defensive record — one of the tightest in the division. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches.
IFK Varnamo's home record at Finnvedsvallen: 3W 3D 4L from 10 Allsvenskan appearances (1.20 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.10 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground.
Sirius — All Games: 4W 1D 5L from 10 Allsvenskan fixtures this season — 1.30 PPG. Last five: W L L D L. Their scoring rate of 1.40 per game is modest, conceding 1.60 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
Sirius away from home this season: 4W 1D 5L from 10 away games — 1.30 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.40 goals scored and 1.70 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
The form figures are too closely matched to derive a directional pick: IFK Varnamo 1.50 PPG, Sirius 1.30 PPG. Look to other data sets to build the analysis.
H2H Record
There is little to separate the sides historically. From 6 previous meetings, IFK Varnamo have won 2, Sirius 3, with 1 draws — a balanced ledger that offers no obvious directional steer on its own.
The 6 previous meetings have averaged 2.5 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 4 Aug 2024, ended 2–4 with Sirius winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
In-Play Data
IFK Varnamo trading profile (60 games, 30 at home): they score before half-time in 63% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 72% of the time; BTTS occurs in 43% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 43% of games (home games); they fail to score in 30% of games.
Sirius trading profile (60 games, 30 at away): they score before half-time in 67% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 82% of the time; BTTS occurs in 57% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 57% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 37%.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — IFK Varnamo 47% versus Sirius 55%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (IFK Varnamo 45% | Sirius 62%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects IFK Varnamo 1.43 xG and Sirius 1.37 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: IFK Varnamo attack 0.926 / defence 1.012 | Sirius attack 0.989 / defence 1.015. League average goals — home 1.516 / away 1.373. Data: 30 IFK Varnamo games / 30 Sirius games used (PrevSeason). Note: current-season sample is too small — prior-season data is carrying the calculation. Model confidence is reduced; treat probabilities as directional rather than precise.
Result probabilities: IFK Varnamo 39% | Draw 25% | Sirius 36%. Fair-value odds: IFK Varnamo 2.56 | Draw 4.00 | Sirius 2.78. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 25% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 53% | BTTS probability 57% | Total xG 2.80. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 53%/47% — the total xG of 2.80 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 57% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, IFK Varnamo are the pick at 39% — marginal model lean. With a 25% draw probability, Draw No Bet on IFK Varnamo offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 36% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 2.80 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 53% — reasonable confidence, supported by form averaging 2.8 goals per game.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 57% on Yes. Form rates are neutral: IFK Varnamo 40% | Sirius 60%.
The outsider holds a 36% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects. The Poisson model is drawing on PrevSeason data (30 games minimum) — early-season projections carry additional uncertainty. Weight the live form and odds signals accordingly.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: IFK Varnamo vs Sirius | Competition: Allsvenskan, Regular Season - 1 | Venue: Finnvedsvallen • Kick-off: Monday 31 Mar 2025, 18:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: IFK Varnamo 39% | Draw 25% | Sirius 36% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 53% | BTTS 57% | xG IFK Varnamo 1.43 / Sirius 1.37 • Poisson strength factors: IFK Varnamo attack 0.926 / def 1.012 | Sirius attack 0.989 / def 1.015 | league avg home 1.516 / away 1.373 • Poisson stance: IFK Varnamo (39%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.43
IFK Varnamo xG
Expected Goals
1.37
Sirius xG
57%
BTTS
77%
Over 1.5
53%
Over 2.5
31%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does IFK Varnamo vs Sirius kick off?
IFK Varnamo vs Sirius kicked off at 18:00 on Monday 31 March 2025 at Finnvedsvallen.
What was the final score in IFK Varnamo vs Sirius?
IFK Varnamo 1 - 2 Sirius.
Where is IFK Varnamo vs Sirius being played?
The match is being played at Finnvedsvallen.
What competition is IFK Varnamo vs Sirius part of?
IFK Varnamo vs Sirius is a Regular Season - 1 fixture in the Allsvenskan (Sweden).
Who is favourite to win IFK Varnamo vs Sirius?
Our statistical model gives IFK Varnamo a 39% chance of winning, Sirius a 36% chance, and a 25% chance of a draw — making IFK Varnamo the favourite.
Will both teams score in IFK Varnamo vs Sirius?
Our model estimates a 57% probability that both IFK Varnamo and Sirius will score (BTTS).
Will IFK Varnamo vs Sirius have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 53%.
What is the head-to-head record between IFK Varnamo and Sirius?
Record (6 meetings): IFK Varnamo 2W | Draws 1 | Sirius 3W.
What form are IFK Varnamo and Sirius in?
IFK Varnamo (all comps): 3W-6D-1L in 10 | 1.50 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 0.70 | L5 L-W-D-D-W. Sirius (all comps): 4W-1D-5L in 10 | 1.30 PPG | GF 1.40 / GA 1.60 | L5 W-L-L-D-L.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Working from IFK Varnamo's attack rating (0.93) and Sirius's defence rating (1.01), the model arrives at 1.43 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Sirius's attack versus IFK Varnamo's defence, projects 1.37 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 30/30 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 13.5%. Close behind: 2-1 (8.5%), 1-2 (8.2%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 30% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
IFK Varnamo Win
39%
2.59
25%
3.96
36%
2.76
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.9%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
8.7%
Home win
2 – 1
8.5%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.43
IFK Varnamo xG
Total xG
2.80
1.37
Sirius xG
2.59
39%
Home win
3.96
25%
Draw
2.76
36%
Away win
Goals Markets
77%
Over 1.5
1.30
23%
Under 1.5
4.35
53%
Over 2.5
1.89
47%
Under 2.5
2.13
31%
Over 3.5
3.23
69%
Under 3.5
1.45
15%
Over 4.5
6.67
85%
Under 4.5
1.18
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
57%
BTTS Yes
1.76
43%
BTTS No
2.31
Clean Sheet
25%
3.95
24%
4.16
Win to Nil
10%
10.25
9%
11.50
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.1 | 8.4 | 5.7 | 2.6 | 0.9 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 8.7 | 11.9 | 8.2 | 3.7 | 1.3 | 0.4 |
| 2 | 6.2 | 8.5 | 5.8 | 2.7 | 0.9 | 0.3 |
| 3 | 2.9 | 4.0 | 2.8 | 1.3 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.0 | 1.4 | 1.0 | 0.5 | 0.2 | – |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.4 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for IFK Varnamo vs Sirius?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.5%.
How many goals are IFK Varnamo and Sirius expected to score?
The model projects 1.43 expected goals for IFK Varnamo and 1.37 for Sirius, a combined total of 2.80.
How confident is the prediction model for IFK Varnamo vs Sirius?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 39%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
IFK Varnamo's recent record stands at 21W 14D 25L from 60 games, a 1.28 PPG return, with L-W-D-D-W in the last five.
Sirius, meanwhile, have gone 24W 11D 25L across 60 games — 1.38 PPG, with W-L-L-D-L in their last five.
Form-wise this is close to level: IFK Varnamo on 1.28 PPG, Sirius on 1.38. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
At home specifically, IFK Varnamo have managed 9W 6D 15L from 30 games — 1.10 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Sirius's away record stands at 11W 7D 12L across 30 trips, a 1.33 PPG haul.
Goals in Recent Form
IFK Varnamo are averaging 1.15 goals scored and 1.25 conceded per game recently; Sirius are on 1.63 scored and 1.50 conceded.
Last 60 Results — Allsvenskan
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
IFK Varnamo
Current Season
Sirius
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are IFK Varnamo and Sirius in coming into this match?
IFK Varnamo have gone 21W 14D 25L in their last 60 games (1.28 PPG), while Sirius have gone 24W 11D 25L in their last 60 (1.38 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — IFK Varnamo at home or Sirius away?
Sirius's away record (1.33 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — IFK Varnamo at home: 1.10 PPG; Sirius away: 1.33 PPG.
Have IFK Varnamo or Sirius been keeping clean sheets recently?
IFK Varnamo have kept a clean sheet in 32% of their recent games, Sirius in 23%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
8 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to April 2022. Every recorded meeting has come in Allsvenskan. They last met on 9 November 2025, roughly 10 months ago.
Streaks & Records
Sirius have won the last 3 meetings between these two, a run that gives them the psychological edge coming in.
IFK Varnamo's record when hosting Sirius specifically: 0W 1D 3L from 4 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 8 Meetings
2
IFK Varnamo
1
Draws
5
Sirius
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between IFK Varnamo and Sirius?
From 8 meetings on record, IFK Varnamo have won 2, Sirius have won 5, and 1 have been drawn.
When did IFK Varnamo and Sirius last play each other?
They last met on 9 November 2025, when Sirius 3-1 IFK Varnamo.
Who has won more matches between IFK Varnamo and Sirius?
Sirius have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 8 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
IFK Varnamo are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 63% of their matches.
Sirius are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — IFK Varnamo 43%, Sirius 57% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 43% (IFK Varnamo) and 57% (Sirius).
On the defensive side: IFK Varnamo have failed to score in 37% of games; Sirius in 27%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = IFK Varnamo home games / Sirius away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when IFK Varnamo play Sirius?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 43% of IFK Varnamo's recent matches and 57% of Sirius's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is IFK Varnamo vs Sirius usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 43% of IFK Varnamo's recent games and 57% of Sirius's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do IFK Varnamo and Sirius tend to score early?
IFK Varnamo have had a goal before half-time in 63% of their recent matches, Sirius in 67% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as Sirius defy the odds to beat IFK Varnamo 1-2.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Sirius beat IFK Varnamo 1-2 at Finnvedsvallen, Regular Season - 1, in the Allsvenskan. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting IFK Varnamo 1.43 xG and Sirius 1.37 xG, a combined 2.80. The scoreboard read 1-2 for 3 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of IFK Varnamo attack 0.93 / defence 1.01 against Sirius attack 0.99 / defence 1.01, drawn from 30/30 games (PrevSeason).
On the result, the model split it IFK Varnamo 39% | Draw 25% | Sirius 36%, with IFK Varnamo to win its most likely call at 39%. The actual Sirius win had been the model's second-ranked read at 36%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 53%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 77% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 57% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 53% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (IFK Varnamo 45%, Sirius 62%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 51%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
IFK Varnamo's trading profile (60 games, 30 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 47% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 32% of the time, and conceded here.
Sirius's trading profile (60 games, 30 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 55% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — IFK Varnamo 1.28 PPG, Sirius 1.38 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Sirius win broke the near-deadlock.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.