IFK Norrkoping 1-1 Mjallby AIF – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Mjallby AIF at 62%, yet other data sources diverge — this IFK Norrkoping vs Mjallby AIF fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Platinumcars Arena plays host to IFK Norrkoping versus Mjallby AIF in Allsvenskan, Regular Season - 11. Kick-off: Monday 26 May 2025 at 18:00 UTC.
Form & Momentum
IFK Norrkoping have collected 1.10 PPG across 10 Allsvenskan outings this season: 2W 5D 3L. Last five: L D W W L. They are averaging 1.10 goals per game and conceding 1.50 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
In front of their own supporters this season, IFK Norrkoping have posted 4W 2D 4L at Platinumcars Arena — 1.40 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.20 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game.
Mjallby AIF's overall Allsvenskan record this term: 4W 5D 1L from 10 games (1.70 PPG). Last five: W W D D W. Their scoring rate of 1.30 per game is modest, conceding 0.80 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Defensively, 0.80 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
Mjallby AIF's away record: 3W 3D 4L from 10 road trips in Allsvenskan this season (1.20 PPG). Away from home they average 1.00 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game. Their away PPG of 1.20 is notably below their overall 1.70 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
On a straight form reading, Mjallby AIF are the stronger side — 0.60 PPG clear of the hosts (1.70 vs 1.10). Backing them with draw insurance is the conservative play if the outright away price appears short.
Head-to-Head
Form and model data should carry more weight here — the historical record is too balanced to provide a directional steer. From 8 meetings: IFK Norrkoping 2W, Mjallby AIF 3W, 3D.
The 8 previous meetings have averaged 2.8 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 26 Aug 2024, ended 1–2 with Mjallby AIF winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
Trading
IFK Norrkoping half-time and goal-timing data (60 games, 30 at home): they score before half-time in 70% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 94% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 69% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (home games).
Mjallby AIF half-time and goal-timing data (60 games, 30 at away): they score before half-time in 63% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 85% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 55% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 40% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 43% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — IFK Norrkoping 63% versus Mjallby AIF 50%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (IFK Norrkoping 62% | Mjallby AIF 48%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects IFK Norrkoping 1.24 xG and Mjallby AIF 2.33 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: IFK Norrkoping attack 1.078 / defence 1.268 | Mjallby AIF attack 1.370 / defence 0.848. League average goals — home 1.361 / away 1.344. Mjallby AIF have an above-average attack strength of 1.370 — the away xG of 2.33 is driven by genuine attacking quality on the road. Data: 40 IFK Norrkoping games / 41 Mjallby AIF games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: IFK Norrkoping 19% | Draw 19% | Mjallby AIF 62%. Fair-value odds: IFK Norrkoping 5.26 | Draw 5.26 | Mjallby AIF 1.61. The model has a clear lean to Mjallby AIF (62%) — a 43pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 69% | BTTS probability 64% | Total xG 3.58. Over 2.5 is the model's clear signal at 69% — a total xG of 3.58 means the expected score alone exceeds the 2.5 threshold, making the Over not just likely but structurally supported by both sides' attack/defence profiles. BTTS Yes at 64% reflects that both xG figures (1.24 / 2.33) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Final Verdict
Form averages suggest only ~1.8 goals/game but Poisson projects Over 2.5 at 69% — underlying attack/defence strengths imply more goals than surface form shows.
Poisson rates Mjallby AIF as the most likely outcome at 62% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 19% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
The Poisson model projects 3.58 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 69% — reasonable confidence, supported by H2H averaging 2.8 goals per meeting.
Poisson assigns a 64% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates are neutral: IFK Norrkoping 50% | Mjallby AIF 50%.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: IFK Norrkoping vs Mjallby AIF | Competition: Allsvenskan, Regular Season - 11 | Venue: Platinumcars Arena • Kick-off: Monday 26 May 2025, 18:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: IFK Norrkoping 19% | Draw 19% | Mjallby AIF 62% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 69% | BTTS 64% | xG IFK Norrkoping 1.24 / Mjallby AIF 2.33 • Poisson strength factors: IFK Norrkoping attack 1.078 / def 1.268 | Mjallby AIF attack 1.370 / def 0.848 | league avg home 1.361 / away 1.344 • Poisson stance: Mjallby AIF (62%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.24
IFK Norrkoping xG
Expected Goals
2.33
Mjallby AIF xG
64%
BTTS
87%
Over 1.5
69%
Over 2.5
48%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does IFK Norrkoping vs Mjallby AIF kick off?
IFK Norrkoping vs Mjallby AIF kicked off at 18:00 on Monday 26 May 2025 at Platinumcars Arena.
What was the final score in IFK Norrkoping vs Mjallby AIF?
IFK Norrkoping 1 - 1 Mjallby AIF.
Where is IFK Norrkoping vs Mjallby AIF being played?
The match is being played at Platinumcars Arena.
What competition is IFK Norrkoping vs Mjallby AIF part of?
IFK Norrkoping vs Mjallby AIF is a Regular Season - 11 fixture in the Allsvenskan (Sweden).
Who is favourite to win IFK Norrkoping vs Mjallby AIF?
Our statistical model gives IFK Norrkoping a 19% chance of winning, Mjallby AIF a 62% chance, and a 19% chance of a draw — making Mjallby AIF the favourite.
Will both teams score in IFK Norrkoping vs Mjallby AIF?
Our model estimates a 64% probability that both IFK Norrkoping and Mjallby AIF will score (BTTS).
Will IFK Norrkoping vs Mjallby AIF have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 69%.
What is the head-to-head record between IFK Norrkoping and Mjallby AIF?
Record (8 meetings): IFK Norrkoping 2W | Draws 3 | Mjallby AIF 3W.
What form are IFK Norrkoping and Mjallby AIF in?
IFK Norrkoping (all comps): 2W-5D-3L in 10 | 1.10 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 1.50 | L5 L-D-W-W-L. Mjallby AIF (all comps): 4W-5D-1L in 10 | 1.70 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 0.80 | L5 W-W-D-D-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
IFK Norrkoping's attacking strength (1.08x league average) is weighed against Mjallby AIF's defensive record (0.85x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.24. Flip it around — Mjallby AIF's attack (1.37x) against IFK Norrkoping's defence (1.27x) — and the away total comes out at 2.33.
These ratings are built from 40/41 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-2, at 9.5%. Close behind: 1-1 (9.2%), 0-2 (7.6%). Together the top three scorelines make up 26% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Mjallby AIF Win
19%
5.25
19%
5.15
62%
1.62
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 2
9.5%
Away win
Most likely
1 – 1
8.1%
Draw
0 – 2
7.6%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.24
IFK Norrkoping xG
Total xG
3.58
2.33
Mjallby AIF xG
5.25
19%
Home win
5.15
19%
Draw
1.62
62%
Away win
Goals Markets
87%
Over 1.5
1.15
13%
Under 1.5
7.69
69%
Over 2.5
1.45
31%
Under 2.5
3.23
48%
Over 3.5
2.08
52%
Under 3.5
1.92
29%
Over 4.5
3.45
71%
Under 4.5
1.41
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
64%
BTTS Yes
1.55
36%
BTTS No
2.81
Clean Sheet
10%
10.32
29%
3.47
Win to Nil
2%
54.17
18%
5.64
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 2.8 | 6.5 | 7.6 | 5.9 | 3.5 | 1.6 |
| 1 | 3.5 | 8.1 | 9.5 | 7.4 | 4.3 | 2.0 |
| 2 | 2.2 | 5.0 | 5.9 | 4.6 | 2.7 | 1.2 |
| 3 | 0.9 | 2.1 | 2.4 | 1.9 | 1.1 | 0.5 |
| 4 | 0.3 | 0.7 | 0.8 | 0.6 | 0.3 | 0.2 |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for IFK Norrkoping vs Mjallby AIF?
Our Poisson model rates 1-2 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 9.5%.
How many goals are IFK Norrkoping and Mjallby AIF expected to score?
The model projects 1.24 expected goals for IFK Norrkoping and 2.33 for Mjallby AIF, a combined total of 3.58.
How confident is the prediction model for IFK Norrkoping vs Mjallby AIF?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 62%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
IFK Norrkoping come into this having played 60 games, going 21W 12D 27L for 1.25 points per game. Their last five reads L-D-W-W-L.
On the other side, Mjallby AIF sit at 1.52 PPG from 60 outings (26W 13D 21L), a run that reads W-W-D-D-W across their last five.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.25 PPG for IFK Norrkoping against 1.52 for Mjallby AIF. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
Home & Away Splits
IFK Norrkoping's home form reads 13W 4D 13L across 30 games on their own ground, a 1.43 PPG return.
Away from home, Mjallby AIF have taken 1.47 points per game from 30 outings (13W 5D 12L).
Scoring & Defensive Trends
IFK Norrkoping are averaging 1.35 goals scored and 1.70 conceded per game recently; Mjallby AIF are on 1.27 scored and 1.15 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: IFK Norrkoping have seen both teams score in 63% of their recent games.
Last 60 Results — Allsvenskan
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
IFK Norrkoping
Current Season
Mjallby AIF
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are IFK Norrkoping and Mjallby AIF in coming into this match?
IFK Norrkoping have gone 21W 12D 27L in their last 60 games (1.25 PPG), while Mjallby AIF have gone 26W 13D 21L in their last 60 (1.52 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — IFK Norrkoping at home or Mjallby AIF away?
Mjallby AIF's away record (1.47 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — IFK Norrkoping at home: 1.43 PPG; Mjallby AIF away: 1.47 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 10 times since July 2021 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Allsvenskan. They last met on 26 October 2025, roughly 10 months ago.
Records & Recent Trends
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Mjallby AIF won 3-0 on 6 Apr 2024, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, IFK Norrkoping have gone 0W 3D 2L from 5 meetings on their own ground against Mjallby AIF — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
2
IFK Norrkoping
4
Draws
4
Mjallby AIF
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between IFK Norrkoping and Mjallby AIF?
From 10 meetings on record, IFK Norrkoping have won 2, Mjallby AIF have won 4, and 4 have been drawn.
When did IFK Norrkoping and Mjallby AIF last play each other?
They last met on 26 October 2025, when Mjallby AIF 2-1 IFK Norrkoping.
Who has won more matches between IFK Norrkoping and Mjallby AIF?
Mjallby AIF have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
IFK Norrkoping are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 70% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 27% of the time.
Mjallby AIF are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 63% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 30% of the time.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — IFK Norrkoping 50%, Mjallby AIF 40% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 50% (IFK Norrkoping) and 43% (Mjallby AIF).
On the defensive side: Mjallby AIF in 37%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = IFK Norrkoping home games / Mjallby AIF away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when IFK Norrkoping play Mjallby AIF?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 50% of IFK Norrkoping's recent matches and 40% of Mjallby AIF's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is IFK Norrkoping vs Mjallby AIF usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 50% of IFK Norrkoping's recent games and 43% of Mjallby AIF's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do IFK Norrkoping and Mjallby AIF tend to score early?
IFK Norrkoping have had a goal before half-time in 70% of their recent matches, Mjallby AIF in 63% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
IFK Norrkoping and Mjallby AIF share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at Platinumcars Arena, Regular Season - 11, as IFK Norrkoping and Mjallby AIF drew 1-1 in the Allsvenskan. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting IFK Norrkoping 1.24 xG and Mjallby AIF 2.33 xG, a combined 3.58. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Mjallby AIF landed 1.3 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of IFK Norrkoping attack 1.08 / defence 1.27 against Mjallby AIF attack 1.37 / defence 0.85, drawn from 40/41 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it IFK Norrkoping 19% | Draw 19% | Mjallby AIF 62%, with Mjallby AIF to win its most likely call at 62%. Instead the game produced a draw, an outcome the model had rated at just 19% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 69%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 87% and landed. Over 3.5 was 48% and did not. On both teams to score, the model sat at 64% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 55% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (IFK Norrkoping 62%, Mjallby AIF 48%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 57%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
IFK Norrkoping's trading profile (60 games, 30 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 63% of their matches — today it did.
Mjallby AIF's trading profile (60 games, 30 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — IFK Norrkoping 1.25 PPG, Mjallby AIF 1.52 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.