IFK Goteborg 3-4 IF Brommapojkarna – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates IF Brommapojkarna at 41% — neither recent form nor the head-to-head data gives a clear steer either way as IFK Goteborg face IF Brommapojkarna.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
IFK Goteborg welcome IF Brommapojkarna to Gamla Ullevi in Allsvenskan (matchday 16). Kick-off is Saturday 27 July 2024 at 17:30 UK time.
Form Analysis
Looking at their last 10 matches, IFK Goteborg stand at 4W 2D 4L — 1.40 PPG. Last five: L W L W D. They are averaging 1.20 goals per game and conceding 1.50 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base.
IFK Goteborg at home: 2W 3D 5L from their last 10 home games — 0.90 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 0.70 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game.
IF Brommapojkarna — last 10 games: 2W 4D 4L — 1.00 PPG. Last five: D D L W L. Their scoring rate of 0.80 per game is modest, conceding 1.90 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings (10%).
IF Brommapojkarna's away record over their last 10 away games: 5W 3D 2L (1.80 PPG). They are averaging 2.20 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. 4 clean sheets from their last 10 away games (40%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road. Their away PPG of 1.80 exceeds their overall 1.00 — they actually perform better on the road than their aggregate form implies.
The form comparison is too close to call — 1.40 PPG (IFK Goteborg) versus 1.00 (IF Brommapojkarna). When the figures are this level, no pick can be reliably derived from recent results alone.
Head to Head
The H2H picture is flat: the 3 H2H matches we hold have produced 2 wins for IFK Goteborg, 0 for IF Brommapojkarna and 1 draw. Form and model data should carry more weight here. With only 3 H2H matches to go on, treat this as a light input.
Scoring has been limited in the 3 H2H matches in our data, averaging 1.3 goals per game, which makes Under 2.5 the head-to-head-backed angle in the goals market. The most recent of those, on 29 Apr 2024, ended IFK Goteborg 3–0 IF Brommapojkarna — a IFK Goteborg win.
With a balanced win record and just 1.3 goals per game, the H2H data points toward a tight, low-scoring contest — Under 2.5 is the stronger head-to-head angle regardless of which side wins.
In-Play Profile
IFK Goteborg in-play tendencies (last 45 games, 22 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 64% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 81% of the time; of the 10 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 40%; BTTS occurs in 46% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 32% of games (home games); they fail to score in 33% of games.
IF Brommapojkarna in-play tendencies (last 45 games, 22 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 77% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 82% of the time; of the 16 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 25%; BTTS occurs in 54% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 54% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — IFK Goteborg 47% versus IF Brommapojkarna 53%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (IFK Goteborg 40% | IF Brommapojkarna 60%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects IFK Goteborg 1.01 xG and IF Brommapojkarna 1.21 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: IFK Goteborg attack 0.697 / defence 0.934 | IF Brommapojkarna attack 0.971 / defence 0.862. League average goals — home 1.683 / away 1.334. IFK Goteborg's attack rating of 0.697 is below the league average, which holds their xG down at 1.01. Data: built from IFK Goteborg's last 45 games and IF Brommapojkarna's last 45.
Result probabilities: IFK Goteborg 31% | Draw 29% | IF Brommapojkarna 41%. Fair-value odds: IFK Goteborg 3.26 | Draw 3.47 | IF Brommapojkarna 2.46. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome reaches 45%. The draw at 29% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 38% | BTTS Yes probability 45% | Total xG 2.22. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 62% — total xG of 2.22 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS No at 55% is only a slight lean — the model gives both sides a fair chance of scoring, so No isn't a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates IF Brommapojkarna as the most likely outcome at 41% — marginal model lean. With a 29% draw probability, Draw No Bet on IF Brommapojkarna offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 31% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 2.22 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 62% — reasonable conviction, supported by the H2H data averaging 1.3 goals per game across 3 H2H matches.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 55% on No. Form rates are neutral — both teams scored in: IFK Goteborg 50% (last 10 home games) | IF Brommapojkarna 50% (last 10 away games).
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: IFK Goteborg vs IF Brommapojkarna | Competition: Allsvenskan, matchday 16 | Venue: Gamla Ullevi • Kick-off: Saturday 27 July 2024 at 17:30 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: IFK Goteborg 31% | Draw 29% | IF Brommapojkarna 41% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 38% (Under 62%) | BTTS Yes 45% (No 55%) | xG IFK Goteborg 1.01 / IF Brommapojkarna 1.21 • Poisson strength factors: IFK Goteborg attack 0.697 / def 0.934 | IF Brommapojkarna attack 0.971 / def 0.862 | league avg home 1.683 / away 1.334 • Poisson stance: IF Brommapojkarna (41%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.01
IFK Goteborg xG
Expected Goals
1.21
IF Brommapojkarna xG
45%
BTTS
65%
Over 1.5
38%
Over 2.5
18%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ IFK Goteborg vs IF Brommapojkarna FAQs
What time does IFK Goteborg vs IF Brommapojkarna kick off?
IFK Goteborg vs IF Brommapojkarna kicked off at 17:30 UK time on Saturday 27 July 2024 at Gamla Ullevi.
What was the final score in IFK Goteborg vs IF Brommapojkarna?
IFK Goteborg 3 - 4 IF Brommapojkarna.
Where is IFK Goteborg vs IF Brommapojkarna being played?
The match is being played at Gamla Ullevi.
What competition is IFK Goteborg vs IF Brommapojkarna part of?
IFK Goteborg vs IF Brommapojkarna is a Allsvenskan fixture (matchday 16) (Sweden).
Who is favourite to win IFK Goteborg vs IF Brommapojkarna?
Our statistical model gives IFK Goteborg a 31% chance of winning, IF Brommapojkarna a 41% chance, and a 29% chance of a draw — making IF Brommapojkarna the favourite.
Will both teams score in IFK Goteborg vs IF Brommapojkarna?
Our model estimates a 45% probability that both IFK Goteborg and IF Brommapojkarna will score, so it leans towards BTTS No (55%).
Will IFK Goteborg vs IF Brommapojkarna have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 38%, so it leans towards under 2.5 goals (62%).
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
The model rates IFK Goteborg's attack at 0.70x the league average against IF Brommapojkarna's defence at 0.86x — combine the two and it projects 1.01 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, IF Brommapojkarna's attack versus IFK Goteborg's defence, projects 1.21 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from IFK Goteborg's last 45 games and IF Brommapojkarna's last 45 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 15.0% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 0-0 (12.6%), 0-1 (11.4%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 39% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
IF Brommapojkarna Win
31%
3.26
29%
3.47
41%
2.46
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
13.3%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
13.1%
Away win
1 – 0
11.0%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.01
IFK Goteborg xG
Total xG
2.22
1.21
IF Brommapojkarna xG
3.26
31%
Home win
3.47
29%
Draw
2.46
41%
Away win
Goals Markets
65%
Over 1.5
1.54
35%
Under 1.5
2.86
38%
Over 2.5
2.63
62%
Under 2.5
1.61
18%
Over 3.5
5.56
82%
Under 3.5
1.22
7%
Over 4.5
14.29
93%
Under 4.5
1.08
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
45%
BTTS Yes
2.24
55%
BTTS No
1.81
Clean Sheet
30%
3.35
36%
2.75
Win to Nil
9%
10.94
15%
6.76
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 10.9 | 13.1 | 7.9 | 3.2 | 1.0 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 11.0 | 13.3 | 8.0 | 3.2 | 1.0 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 5.5 | 6.7 | 4.1 | 1.6 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 1.9 | 2.3 | 1.4 | 0.5 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 0.5 | 0.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ IFK Goteborg vs IF Brommapojkarna Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for IFK Goteborg vs IF Brommapojkarna?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 15.0%.
How many goals are IFK Goteborg and IF Brommapojkarna expected to score?
The model projects 1.01 expected goals for IFK Goteborg and 1.21 for IF Brommapojkarna, a combined total of 2.22.
How confident is the prediction model for IFK Goteborg vs IF Brommapojkarna?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 41%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Across their last 45 outings, IFK Goteborg have picked up 1.16 PPG on a 13W 13D 19L record — L-W-L-W-D across the most recent five.
IF Brommapojkarna's form line: 15W 10D 20L from 45 games, 1.22 PPG, last five D-D-L-W-L.
Form-wise this is close to level: IFK Goteborg on 1.16 PPG, IF Brommapojkarna on 1.22. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
On home soil, IFK Goteborg have posted 1.23 PPG from their last 22 home games (7W 6D 9L).
On the road, IF Brommapojkarna have gone 9W 4D 9L from their last 22 away games — 1.41 PPG when travelling.
The Goals Picture
IFK Goteborg are averaging 1.07 goals scored and 1.31 conceded per game recently; IF Brommapojkarna are on 1.44 scored and 1.64 conceded.
Last 45 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
IFK Goteborg
Blended
IF Brommapojkarna
Blended
IFK Goteborg (Home) vs IF Brommapojkarna (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
IFK Goteborg
Blended
IF Brommapojkarna
Blended
❓ IFK Goteborg vs IF Brommapojkarna Form FAQs
What form are IFK Goteborg and IF Brommapojkarna in coming into this match?
IFK Goteborg have gone 13W 13D 19L in their last 45 games (1.16 PPG), while IF Brommapojkarna have gone 15W 10D 20L in their last 45 (1.22 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — IFK Goteborg at home or IF Brommapojkarna away?
IF Brommapojkarna's away record (1.41 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — IFK Goteborg at home: 1.23 PPG; IF Brommapojkarna away: 1.41 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The head-to-head numbers here are drawn from the 8 H2H matches in our data, going back to May 2023. All of them came in Allsvenskan. The most recent was as recently as 19 September 2026, so it is a fresh reference point.
Digging Into the Numbers
There's a clear recent trend here: IFK Goteborg have taken the most recent 2 H2H results in our data.
The biggest gap in our H2H data came on 29 Apr 2024, when IFK Goteborg won IF Brommapojkarna 0-3 IFK Goteborg.
IFK Goteborg's record when hosting IF Brommapojkarna specifically: 2W 0D 2L from 4 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 8 Meetings
5
IFK Goteborg
1
Draws
2
IF Brommapojkarna
Recent Meetings
❓ IFK Goteborg vs IF Brommapojkarna H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between IFK Goteborg and IF Brommapojkarna?
Across the 8 head-to-head matches in our data, IFK Goteborg have won 5, IF Brommapojkarna have won 2, and 1 has been drawn.
When did IFK Goteborg and IF Brommapojkarna last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 19 September 2026: IF Brommapojkarna 0-1 IFK Goteborg.
Who has won more matches between IFK Goteborg and IF Brommapojkarna?
IFK Goteborg have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from the 8 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
IFK Goteborg are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 64% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 29% of those situations.
IF Brommapojkarna are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 77% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 29% of those situations.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — IFK Goteborg 46%, IF Brommapojkarna 54% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 32% (IFK Goteborg) and 54% (IF Brommapojkarna).
On the defensive side: IF Brommapojkarna in 32%; IFK Goteborg have failed to score in 32% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = IFK Goteborg home games / IF Brommapojkarna away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ IFK Goteborg vs IF Brommapojkarna Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in IFK Goteborg and IF Brommapojkarna matches?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 46% of IFK Goteborg's recent matches and 54% of IF Brommapojkarna's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Are IFK Goteborg and IF Brommapojkarna matches usually high-scoring?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 32% of IFK Goteborg's recent games and 54% of IF Brommapojkarna's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do IFK Goteborg and IF Brommapojkarna matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 64% of IFK Goteborg's recent matches and 77% of IF Brommapojkarna's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as IF Brommapojkarna edge out IFK Goteborg 3-4.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
IF Brommapojkarna beat IFK Goteborg 3-4 at Gamla Ullevi, Regular Season - 16, in the Allsvenskan. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting IFK Goteborg 1.01 xG and IF Brommapojkarna 1.21 xG, a combined 2.22. The scoreboard read 3-4 for 7 actual goals. IFK Goteborg beat their projection by 2.0 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. IF Brommapojkarna outscored their 1.21 projection by 2.8. Those figures were built on strength ratings of IFK Goteborg attack 0.70 / defence 0.93 against IF Brommapojkarna attack 0.97 / defence 0.86, drawn from 45/45 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it IFK Goteborg 31% | Draw 29% | IF Brommapojkarna 41%, with IF Brommapojkarna to win its most likely call at 41%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 38%. The game delivered 7, so it went over — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 65% and landed. Over 3.5 was 18% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 45% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 50% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (IFK Goteborg 40%, IF Brommapojkarna 60%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 50%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
IFK Goteborg's trading profile (45 games, 22 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 47% of their matches — today it did.
IF Brommapojkarna's trading profile (45 games, 22 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 53% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — IFK Goteborg 1.16 PPG, IF Brommapojkarna 1.22 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the IF Brommapojkarna win broke the near-deadlock. IFK Goteborg (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.14 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 4 against a 1.09 concession average — a leakier day than usual. IF Brommapojkarna (home/away splits) scored 4 against a 1.86 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 3 against a 1.45 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.