Hammarby FF 3-0 Mjallby AIF – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Hammarby FF at 49%, yet other data sources diverge — this Hammarby FF vs Mjallby AIF fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Hammarby FF host Mjallby AIF at Tele2 Arena in Allsvenskan, Regular Season - 16. Kick-off is scheduled for Sunday 28 July 2024 at 15:30 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Hammarby FF stand at 6W 1D 3L from 10 Allsvenskan matches — 1.90 PPG. Last five: W W D L W. Offensively they are averaging 1.50 goals per game, with 0.90 conceded. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. This season is still relatively young for Hammarby FF, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Hammarby FF at Tele2 Arena this season: 5W 3D 2L from 10 home games — 1.80 PPG on home soil. They are averaging 2.00 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Mjallby AIF — All Games: 6W 1D 3L from 10 Allsvenskan fixtures this season — 1.90 PPG. Last five: W W W W L. They are scoring at 1.80 per game and conceding 1.40. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches this season — one of the stronger BTTS rates in the division, making Yes a well-evidenced play. This season is still relatively young for Mjallby AIF, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Mjallby AIF away from home this season: 4W 1D 5L from 10 away games — 1.30 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.20 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture. Their away PPG of 1.30 is notably below their overall 1.90 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
The form figures are too closely matched to derive a directional pick: Hammarby FF 1.90 PPG, Mjallby AIF 1.90 PPG. Look to other data sets to build the analysis.
Both teams score in over 70% of each side's relevant games (using home/away splits). At that combined rate, BTTS Yes is as well-evidenced as it gets — the data strongly backs two-way scoring.
H2H
The H2H landscape is flat: 6 previous encounters have yielded 3 wins for Hammarby FF, 2 for Mjallby AIF and 1 draws. A neutral reading in isolation.
The 6 previous meetings have averaged 2.2 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 15 May 2024, ended 0–3 with Mjallby AIF winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
Trading Patterns
Hammarby FF in-play and half-time data (45 games, 22 at home): they score before half-time in 68% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 65% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 53% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 68% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 73% of games (home games); they fail to score in 31% of games.
Mjallby AIF in-play and half-time data (45 games, 22 at away): they score before half-time in 64% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 88% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 56% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 41% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 46% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Hammarby FF 51% versus Mjallby AIF 47%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Hammarby FF 58% | Mjallby AIF 51%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Hammarby FF 1.66 xG and Mjallby AIF 1.16 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Hammarby FF attack 1.024 / defence 0.872 | Mjallby AIF attack 0.983 / defence 0.968. League average goals — home 1.674 / away 1.348. Data: 45 Hammarby FF games / 46 Mjallby AIF games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Hammarby FF 49% | Draw 24% | Mjallby AIF 27%. Fair-value odds: Hammarby FF 2.04 | Draw 4.17 | Mjallby AIF 3.70. Hammarby FF hold a narrow Poisson edge at 49% — the draw (24%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 53% | BTTS probability 55% | Total xG 2.81. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 53%/47% — the total xG of 2.81 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 55% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Hammarby FF are the pick at 49% — moderate model lean. With a 24% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Hammarby FF offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
Poisson projects 2.81 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 53% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by form averaging 2.9 goals per game.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 55%. Form rates corroborate: Hammarby FF 70% | Mjallby AIF 70% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Hammarby FF vs Mjallby AIF | Competition: Allsvenskan, Regular Season - 16 | Venue: Tele2 Arena • Kick-off: Sunday 28 Jul 2024, 15:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Hammarby FF 49% | Draw 24% | Mjallby AIF 27% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 53% | BTTS 55% | xG Hammarby FF 1.66 / Mjallby AIF 1.16 • Poisson strength factors: Hammarby FF attack 1.024 / def 0.872 | Mjallby AIF attack 0.983 / def 0.968 | league avg home 1.674 / away 1.348 • Poisson stance: Hammarby FF (49%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.66
Hammarby FF xG
Expected Goals
1.16
Mjallby AIF xG
55%
BTTS
77%
Over 1.5
53%
Over 2.5
31%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Hammarby FF vs Mjallby AIF kick off?
Hammarby FF vs Mjallby AIF kicked off at 15:30 on Sunday 28 July 2024 at Tele2 Arena.
What was the final score in Hammarby FF vs Mjallby AIF?
Hammarby FF 3 - 0 Mjallby AIF.
Where is Hammarby FF vs Mjallby AIF being played?
The match is being played at Tele2 Arena.
What competition is Hammarby FF vs Mjallby AIF part of?
Hammarby FF vs Mjallby AIF is a Regular Season - 16 fixture in the Allsvenskan (Sweden).
Who is favourite to win Hammarby FF vs Mjallby AIF?
Our statistical model gives Hammarby FF a 49% chance of winning, Mjallby AIF a 27% chance, and a 24% chance of a draw — making Hammarby FF the favourite.
Will both teams score in Hammarby FF vs Mjallby AIF?
Our model estimates a 55% probability that both Hammarby FF and Mjallby AIF will score (BTTS).
Will Hammarby FF vs Mjallby AIF have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 53%.
What is the head-to-head record between Hammarby FF and Mjallby AIF?
Record (6 meetings): Hammarby FF 3W | Draws 1 | Mjallby AIF 2W.
What form are Hammarby FF and Mjallby AIF in?
Hammarby FF (all comps): 6W-1D-3L in 10 | 1.90 PPG | GF 1.50 / GA 0.90 | L5 W-W-D-L-W. Mjallby AIF (all comps): 6W-1D-3L in 10 | 1.90 PPG | GF 1.80 / GA 1.40 | L5 W-W-W-W-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Hammarby FF's attacking strength (1.02x league average) is weighed against Mjallby AIF's defensive record (0.97x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.66. The same calculation in reverse, Mjallby AIF's attack versus Hammarby FF's defence, projects 1.16 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 45/46 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 13.0%. Close behind: 2-1 (9.5%), 1-0 (8.5%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 31% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Hammarby FF Win
49%
2.03
24%
4.12
27%
3.77
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.5%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
9.9%
Home win
2 – 1
9.5%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.66
Hammarby FF xG
Total xG
2.81
1.16
Mjallby AIF xG
2.03
49%
Home win
4.12
24%
Draw
3.77
27%
Away win
Goals Markets
77%
Over 1.5
1.30
23%
Under 1.5
4.35
53%
Over 2.5
1.89
47%
Under 2.5
2.13
31%
Over 3.5
3.23
69%
Under 3.5
1.45
15%
Over 4.5
6.67
85%
Under 4.5
1.18
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
55%
BTTS Yes
1.80
45%
BTTS No
2.25
Clean Sheet
32%
3.17
19%
5.26
Win to Nil
15%
6.46
5%
19.82
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.0 | 6.9 | 4.0 | 1.5 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 9.9 | 11.5 | 6.6 | 2.6 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 8.3 | 9.5 | 5.5 | 2.1 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 4.6 | 5.3 | 3.0 | 1.2 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.9 | 2.2 | 1.3 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.6 | 0.7 | 0.4 | 0.2 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Hammarby FF vs Mjallby AIF?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.0%.
How many goals are Hammarby FF and Mjallby AIF expected to score?
The model projects 1.66 expected goals for Hammarby FF and 1.16 for Mjallby AIF, a combined total of 2.81.
How confident is the prediction model for Hammarby FF vs Mjallby AIF?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 49%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Hammarby FF come into this having played 45 games, going 19W 12D 14L for 1.53 points per game. Their last five reads W-W-D-L-W. The sample for Hammarby FF is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Mjallby AIF sit at 1.53 PPG from 45 outings (21W 6D 18L), a run that reads W-W-W-W-L across their last five. The sample for Mjallby AIF is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: Hammarby FF on 1.53 PPG, Mjallby AIF on 1.53. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
Hammarby FF's home form reads 13W 5D 4L across 22 games on their own ground, a 2.00 PPG return. That's noticeably better than their 1.53 PPG overall — Hammarby FF are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
Away from home, Mjallby AIF have taken 1.59 points per game from 22 outings (11W 2D 9L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Hammarby FF come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Hammarby FF are averaging 1.42 goals scored and 1.22 conceded per game recently; Mjallby AIF are on 1.29 scored and 1.18 conceded.
Last 45 Results — Allsvenskan
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Hammarby FF
Blended
Mjallby AIF
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Hammarby FF and Mjallby AIF in coming into this match?
Hammarby FF have gone 19W 12D 14L in their last 45 games (1.53 PPG), while Mjallby AIF have gone 21W 6D 18L in their last 45 (1.53 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Hammarby FF at home or Mjallby AIF away?
Hammarby FF's home record (2.00 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Hammarby FF at home: 2.00 PPG; Mjallby AIF away: 1.59 PPG.
Have Hammarby FF or Mjallby AIF been keeping clean sheets recently?
Hammarby FF have kept a clean sheet in 31% of their recent games, Mjallby AIF in 29%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Hammarby FF and Mjallby AIF runs to 10 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to November 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Allsvenskan. They last met on 4 April 2026, roughly 4 months ago.
Digging Into the Numbers
The biggest gap between the sides came on 16 Oct 2022, when Hammarby FF won 0-3 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Hammarby FF's record when hosting Mjallby AIF specifically: 3W 1D 1L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
5
Hammarby FF
1
Draws
4
Mjallby AIF
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Hammarby FF and Mjallby AIF?
From 10 meetings on record, Hammarby FF have won 5, Mjallby AIF have won 4, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Hammarby FF and Mjallby AIF last play each other?
They last met on 4 April 2026, when Hammarby FF 3-0 Mjallby AIF.
Who has won more matches between Hammarby FF and Mjallby AIF?
Hammarby FF have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Hammarby FF are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 68% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 46% of the time.
Mjallby AIF are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 64% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 32% of the time.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Hammarby FF 68%, Mjallby AIF 41% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 73% (Hammarby FF) and 46% (Mjallby AIF). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 41% and 14% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Mjallby AIF in 32%; Mjallby AIF in 32%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Hammarby FF home games / Mjallby AIF away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Hammarby FF play Mjallby AIF?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 68% of Hammarby FF's recent matches and 41% of Mjallby AIF's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Hammarby FF vs Mjallby AIF usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 73% of Hammarby FF's matches and 46% of Mjallby AIF's.
Do Hammarby FF and Mjallby AIF tend to score early?
Hammarby FF have had a goal before half-time in 68% of their recent matches, Mjallby AIF in 64% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant Hammarby FF run riot with a 3-0 hammering of Mjallby AIF.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Hammarby FF beat Mjallby AIF 3-0 at Tele2 Arena, Regular Season - 16, in the Allsvenskan. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Hammarby FF 1.66 xG and Mjallby AIF 1.16 xG, a combined 2.81. The scoreboard read 3-0 for 3 actual goals. Hammarby FF beat their projection by 1.3 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Mjallby AIF landed 1.2 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Hammarby FF attack 1.02 / defence 0.87 against Mjallby AIF attack 0.98 / defence 0.97, drawn from 45/46 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Hammarby FF 49% | Draw 24% | Mjallby AIF 27%, with Hammarby FF to win its most likely call at 49%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 53%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 77% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 55% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 54% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Hammarby FF 58%, Mjallby AIF 51%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 49%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Hammarby FF's trading profile (45 games, 22 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 51% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 31% of the time, and duly kept one.
Mjallby AIF's trading profile (45 games, 22 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 47% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 29% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Hammarby FF 1.53 PPG, Mjallby AIF 1.53 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Hammarby FF win broke the near-deadlock. Hammarby FF (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.95 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 1.23 average — tighter than their form line. Mjallby AIF (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.18 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 3 against a 1.14 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.