IF Elfsborg 2-0 Mjallby AIF – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates IF Elfsborg at 49% — neither recent form nor the head-to-head data gives a clear steer either way as IF Elfsborg face Mjallby AIF.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Borås Arena plays host to IF Elfsborg versus Mjallby AIF in Allsvenskan (matchday 20). Kick-off: Sunday 20 August 2023 at 17:30 UK time.
Form & Momentum
IF Elfsborg have collected 2.00 PPG across their last 10 games: 6W 2D 2L. Last five: D W L W L. Offensively they are averaging 1.90 goals per game, with 0.70 conceded. Defensively, conceding just 0.70 per game is an exceptional defensive record. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches.
IF Elfsborg at home: 7W 2D 1L from their last 10 home games — 2.30 PPG on home soil. They are averaging 2.40 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. 6 clean sheets from their last 10 home games (60%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at home. At home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle.
Mjallby AIF (all games): 5W 1D 4L across their last 10 — 1.60 points per game. Last five: L W L W W. Their scoring rate of 1.20 per game is modest, conceding 1.20 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings (30%).
Mjallby AIF's form when playing away from home: 6W 1D 3L across their last 10 road games (1.90 PPG). Away from home they average 1.10 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game. 5 away clean sheets from their last 10 away games (50%) — they are hard to break down on the road. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 20% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel.
Both sides are running at similar form levels — 2.00 PPG for IF Elfsborg against 1.60 for Mjallby AIF. There is no clear form edge to exploit here; other signals need to take the lead.
Both sides have a clean-sheet tendency (from IF Elfsborg's last 10 home games and Mjallby AIF's last 10 away games) — IF Elfsborg have seen both teams score in just 30% of their matches, Mjallby AIF in only 20%. BTTS No has clear statistical support from the form record of both squads.
Head-to-Head
Neither side has dominated the 3 H2H matches in our data: 1 wins for IF Elfsborg, 1 for Mjallby AIF and 1 draw — leaving the H2H largely neutral. With only 3 H2H matches to go on, treat this as a light input.
Scoring has been limited in the 3 H2H matches in our data, averaging 1.7 goals per game, which makes Under 2.5 the head-to-head-backed angle in the goals market. The most recent of those, on 29 Apr 2023, ended IF Elfsborg 1–0 Mjallby AIF — a IF Elfsborg win.
With a balanced win record and just 1.7 goals per game, the H2H data points toward a tight, low-scoring contest — Under 2.5 is the stronger head-to-head angle regardless of which side wins.
Trading & In-Play
IF Elfsborg — key trading statistics (last 49 games, 24 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 75% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 83% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; of the 13 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 54%; BTTS occurs in 54% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 54% of games (home games).
Mjallby AIF — key trading statistics (last 49 games, 24 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 54% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 79% of the time; of the 16 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 25%; of the 11 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 27%; BTTS occurs in 25% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 29% of games (away games); they fail to score in 31% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — IF Elfsborg 51% versus Mjallby AIF 43%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (IF Elfsborg 53% | Mjallby AIF 37%). Note also that Mjallby AIF surrender HT leads in 25% of cases while IF Elfsborg recover from half-time deficits to draw or win 54% of the time — a dynamic that could influence in-play positioning.
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects IF Elfsborg 1.46 xG and Mjallby AIF 0.95 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: IF Elfsborg attack 1.238 / defence 0.718 | Mjallby AIF attack 1.098 / defence 0.847. League average goals — home 1.390 / away 1.209. IF Elfsborg have a tight defence (rating 0.718), which is pulling Mjallby AIF's projected output down. Data: built from IF Elfsborg's last 49 games and Mjallby AIF's last 49.
Result probabilities: IF Elfsborg 49% | Draw 27% | Mjallby AIF 25%. Fair-value odds: IF Elfsborg 2.05 | Draw 3.77 | Mjallby AIF 4.05. IF Elfsborg hold a narrow Poisson edge at 49% — the draw (27%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 43% | BTTS Yes probability 47% | Total xG 2.41. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 57% — total xG of 2.41 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS No at 53% is only a slight lean — the model gives both sides a fair chance of scoring, so No isn't a clear standalone call.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, IF Elfsborg are the pick at 49% — moderate model lean. Draw probability of 27% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on IF Elfsborg if the outright odds are short.
Poisson projects 2.41 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 57% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by the H2H data averaging 1.7 goals per game across 3 H2H matches.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 53% on No. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: IF Elfsborg 30% (last 10 home games) | Mjallby AIF 20% (last 10 away games).
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: IF Elfsborg vs Mjallby AIF | Competition: Allsvenskan, matchday 20 | Venue: Borås Arena • Kick-off: Sunday 20 August 2023 at 17:30 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: IF Elfsborg 49% | Draw 27% | Mjallby AIF 25% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 43% (Under 57%) | BTTS Yes 47% (No 53%) | xG IF Elfsborg 1.46 / Mjallby AIF 0.95 • Poisson strength factors: IF Elfsborg attack 1.238 / def 0.718 | Mjallby AIF attack 1.098 / def 0.847 | league avg home 1.390 / away 1.209 • Poisson stance: IF Elfsborg (49%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.46
IF Elfsborg xG
Expected Goals
0.95
Mjallby AIF xG
47%
BTTS
69%
Over 1.5
43%
Over 2.5
22%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ IF Elfsborg vs Mjallby AIF FAQs
What time does IF Elfsborg vs Mjallby AIF kick off?
IF Elfsborg vs Mjallby AIF kicked off at 17:30 UK time on Sunday 20 August 2023 at Borås Arena.
What was the final score in IF Elfsborg vs Mjallby AIF?
IF Elfsborg 2 - 0 Mjallby AIF.
Where is IF Elfsborg vs Mjallby AIF being played?
The match is being played at Borås Arena.
What competition is IF Elfsborg vs Mjallby AIF part of?
IF Elfsborg vs Mjallby AIF is a Allsvenskan fixture (matchday 20) (Sweden).
Who is favourite to win IF Elfsborg vs Mjallby AIF?
Our statistical model gives IF Elfsborg a 49% chance of winning, Mjallby AIF a 25% chance, and a 27% chance of a draw — making IF Elfsborg the favourite.
Will both teams score in IF Elfsborg vs Mjallby AIF?
Our model estimates a 47% probability that both IF Elfsborg and Mjallby AIF will score, so it leans towards BTTS No (53%).
Will IF Elfsborg vs Mjallby AIF have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 43%, so it leans towards under 2.5 goals (57%).
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
IF Elfsborg's attacking strength (1.24x league average) is weighed against Mjallby AIF's defensive record (0.85x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.46. Flip it around — Mjallby AIF's attack (1.10x) against IF Elfsborg's defence (0.72x) — and the away total comes out at 0.95.
These ratings are built from IF Elfsborg's last 49 games and Mjallby AIF's last 49 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 14.1%. Close behind: 1-0 (11.5%), 0-0 (10.6%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 36% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
IF Elfsborg Win
49%
2.05
27%
3.77
25%
4.05
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
13.1%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
12.5%
Draw
2 – 0
9.5%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.46
IF Elfsborg xG
Total xG
2.41
0.95
Mjallby AIF xG
2.05
49%
Home win
3.77
27%
Draw
4.05
25%
Away win
Goals Markets
69%
Over 1.5
1.45
31%
Under 1.5
3.23
43%
Over 2.5
2.33
57%
Under 2.5
1.75
22%
Over 3.5
4.55
78%
Under 3.5
1.28
10%
Over 4.5
10.00
90%
Under 4.5
1.11
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
47%
BTTS Yes
2.12
53%
BTTS No
1.89
Clean Sheet
39%
2.59
23%
4.29
Win to Nil
19%
5.31
6%
17.40
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 9.0 | 8.6 | 4.1 | 1.3 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 13.1 | 12.5 | 5.9 | 1.9 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 9.5 | 9.1 | 4.3 | 1.4 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 4.6 | 4.4 | 2.1 | 0.7 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 1.7 | 1.6 | 0.8 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.5 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ IF Elfsborg vs Mjallby AIF Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for IF Elfsborg vs Mjallby AIF?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.1%.
How many goals are IF Elfsborg and Mjallby AIF expected to score?
The model projects 1.46 expected goals for IF Elfsborg and 0.95 for Mjallby AIF, a combined total of 2.41.
How confident is the prediction model for IF Elfsborg vs Mjallby AIF?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 49%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
IF Elfsborg come into this having played 49 games, going 26W 13D 10L for 1.86 points per game. Their last five reads D-W-L-W-L.
On the other side, Mjallby AIF sit at 1.45 PPG from 49 outings (19W 14D 16L), a run that reads L-W-L-W-W across their last five.
IF Elfsborg carry the stronger recent form of the two, 0.41 PPG clear of Mjallby AIF — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
How They Fare by Venue
IF Elfsborg's home form reads 14W 7D 3L across their last 24 home games, a 2.04 PPG return.
Away from home, Mjallby AIF have taken 1.58 points per game from their last 24 away games (11W 5D 8L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, IF Elfsborg come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
IF Elfsborg are averaging 1.96 goals scored and 1.02 conceded per game recently; Mjallby AIF are on 1.08 scored and 1.06 conceded.
Last 49 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
IF Elfsborg
Blended
Mjallby AIF
Blended
IF Elfsborg (Home) vs Mjallby AIF (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
IF Elfsborg
Blended
Mjallby AIF
Blended
❓ IF Elfsborg vs Mjallby AIF Form FAQs
What form are IF Elfsborg and Mjallby AIF in coming into this match?
IF Elfsborg have gone 26W 13D 10L in their last 49 games (1.86 PPG), while Mjallby AIF have gone 19W 14D 16L in their last 49 (1.45 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — IF Elfsborg at home or Mjallby AIF away?
IF Elfsborg's home record (2.04 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — IF Elfsborg at home: 2.04 PPG; Mjallby AIF away: 1.58 PPG.
Have IF Elfsborg or Mjallby AIF been keeping clean sheets recently?
IF Elfsborg have kept a clean sheet in 33% of their recent games, Mjallby AIF in 35%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
Our data holds 10 H2H matches between IF Elfsborg and Mjallby AIF, the earliest from April 2022. All of them came in Allsvenskan. The most recent was on 8 August 2026, roughly 3 months ago.
Notable Numbers
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, IF Elfsborg have gone 2W 2D 1L from the 5 H2H matches in our data played on their own ground against Mjallby AIF — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
4
IF Elfsborg
4
Draws
2
Mjallby AIF
Recent Meetings
❓ IF Elfsborg vs Mjallby AIF H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between IF Elfsborg and Mjallby AIF?
Across the 10 head-to-head matches in our data, IF Elfsborg have won 4, Mjallby AIF have won 2, and 4 have been drawn.
When did IF Elfsborg and Mjallby AIF last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 8 August 2026: Mjallby AIF 0-1 IF Elfsborg.
Who has won more matches between IF Elfsborg and Mjallby AIF?
IF Elfsborg have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from the 10 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
IF Elfsborg are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 75% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 42% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 20% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 50% of those situations.
Mjallby AIF see a goal before the break in 54% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 29% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 40% of those situations.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — IF Elfsborg 54%, Mjallby AIF 25% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 54% (IF Elfsborg) and 29% (Mjallby AIF).
On the defensive side: IF Elfsborg keep a clean sheet in 33% of their matches; Mjallby AIF in 46%; Mjallby AIF in 42%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = IF Elfsborg home games / Mjallby AIF away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ IF Elfsborg vs Mjallby AIF Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in IF Elfsborg and Mjallby AIF matches?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 54% of IF Elfsborg's recent matches and 25% of Mjallby AIF's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Are IF Elfsborg and Mjallby AIF matches usually high-scoring?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 54% of IF Elfsborg's recent games and 29% of Mjallby AIF's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do IF Elfsborg and Mjallby AIF matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 75% of IF Elfsborg's recent matches and 54% of Mjallby AIF's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
IF Elfsborg cruise to a comfortable 2-0 victory over Mjallby AIF.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
IF Elfsborg beat Mjallby AIF 2-0 at Borås Arena, Regular Season - 20, in the Allsvenskan. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting IF Elfsborg 1.46 xG and Mjallby AIF 0.95 xG, a combined 2.41. The scoreboard read 2-0 for 2 actual goals. Mjallby AIF landed 1.0 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of IF Elfsborg attack 1.24 / defence 0.72 against Mjallby AIF attack 1.10 / defence 0.85, drawn from 49/49 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it IF Elfsborg 49% | Draw 27% | Mjallby AIF 25%, with IF Elfsborg to win its most likely call at 49%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 43%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 69% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 47% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 45% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (IF Elfsborg 53%, Mjallby AIF 37%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 47%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
IF Elfsborg's trading profile (49 games, 24 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 51% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 33% of the time, and duly kept one.
Mjallby AIF's trading profile (49 games, 24 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 43% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 35% of the time, and conceded here; they fail to score in 31% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
On form, IF Elfsborg arrived the stronger side — 1.86 PPG against 1.45. The form guide was vindicated by the result. IF Elfsborg (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.00 average — tighter than their form line. Mjallby AIF (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 0.92 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 2 against a 0.96 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 4 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (hit). The data earned its keep here, calling the bulk of the fixture correctly.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.