Degerfors IF 1-2 IFK Goteborg – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Degerfors IF at 49%, yet other data sources diverge — this Degerfors IF vs IFK Goteborg fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Degerfors IF and IFK Goteborg meet at Stora Valla in Allsvenskan, Regular Season - 20. This fixture gets under way on Saturday 19 August 2023 at 14:00 UTC.
Form & Momentum
Degerfors IF have collected 1.10 PPG across 10 Allsvenskan outings this season: 3W 2D 5L. Last five: W L L W W. They are averaging 0.90 goals per game and conceding 1.70 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. This season is still relatively young for Degerfors IF, so this record blends games from this season and last.
At home at Stora Valla, Degerfors IF have gone 4W 2D 4L this season (10 games, 1.40 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.30 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
IFK Goteborg's overall Allsvenskan record this term: 2W 3D 5L from 10 games (0.90 PPG). Last five: D D W L W. Their scoring rate of 0.70 per game is modest, conceding 1.40 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. This season is still relatively young for IFK Goteborg, so this record blends games from this season and last.
On the road, IFK Goteborg have gone 1W 4D 5L from 10 away fixtures this term (0.70 PPG). Away from home they average 0.80 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game.
A near-identical PPG reading — 1.10 for Degerfors IF, 0.90 for IFK Goteborg — means the form record is uninstructive on result selection. The goals and market sections will carry greater evidential weight.
H2H History
Form and model data should carry more weight here — the historical record is too balanced to provide a directional steer. From 5 meetings: Degerfors IF 2W, IFK Goteborg 3W, 0D.
Attacking output has been a hallmark of this fixture. At 3.6 goals per game across 5 meetings, the Over 2.5 has a statistically grounded case from the head-to-head record alone. The most recent clash, on 4 May 2023, ended 0–6 with IFK Goteborg winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.6 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading
Degerfors IF half-time and goal-timing data (49 games, 24 at home): they score before half-time in 79% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 70% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 54% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (home games); they fail to score in 37% of games.
IFK Goteborg half-time and goal-timing data (49 games, 24 at away): they score before half-time in 79% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 77% of the time; BTTS occurs in 38% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (away games); they fail to score in 35% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Degerfors IF 57% versus IFK Goteborg 43%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Degerfors IF 55% | IFK Goteborg 43%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Degerfors IF 1.40 xG and IFK Goteborg 0.90 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Degerfors IF attack 0.898 / defence 1.112 | IFK Goteborg attack 0.682 / defence 1.113. League average goals — home 1.400 / away 1.189. Data: 49 Degerfors IF games / 49 IFK Goteborg games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Degerfors IF 49% | Draw 27% | IFK Goteborg 24%. Fair-value odds: Degerfors IF 2.04 | Draw 3.70 | IFK Goteborg 4.17. Degerfors IF hold a narrow Poisson edge at 49% — the draw (27%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 40% | BTTS probability 45% | Total xG 2.30. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 60% — total xG of 2.30 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 45% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Degerfors IF at 49% — moderate model lean. Draw probability of 27% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Degerfors IF if the outright odds are short.
Poisson projects 2.30 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 40% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction — though H2H averaging only 3.6 goals per meeting points in the other direction.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 45% on No. Form rates are neutral: Degerfors IF 60% | IFK Goteborg 40%.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Degerfors IF vs IFK Goteborg | Competition: Allsvenskan, Regular Season - 20 | Venue: Stora Valla • Kick-off: Saturday 19 Aug 2023, 14:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Degerfors IF 49% | Draw 27% | IFK Goteborg 24% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 40% | BTTS 45% | xG Degerfors IF 1.40 / IFK Goteborg 0.90 • Poisson strength factors: Degerfors IF attack 0.898 / def 1.112 | IFK Goteborg attack 0.682 / def 1.113 | league avg home 1.400 / away 1.189 • Poisson stance: Degerfors IF (49%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.40
Degerfors IF xG
Expected Goals
0.90
IFK Goteborg xG
45%
BTTS
67%
Over 1.5
40%
Over 2.5
20%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Degerfors IF vs IFK Goteborg kick off?
Degerfors IF vs IFK Goteborg kicked off at 14:00 on Saturday 19 August 2023 at Stora Valla.
What was the final score in Degerfors IF vs IFK Goteborg?
Degerfors IF 1 - 2 IFK Goteborg.
Where is Degerfors IF vs IFK Goteborg being played?
The match is being played at Stora Valla.
What competition is Degerfors IF vs IFK Goteborg part of?
Degerfors IF vs IFK Goteborg is a Regular Season - 20 fixture in the Allsvenskan (Sweden).
Who is favourite to win Degerfors IF vs IFK Goteborg?
Our statistical model gives Degerfors IF a 49% chance of winning, IFK Goteborg a 24% chance, and a 27% chance of a draw — making Degerfors IF the favourite.
Will both teams score in Degerfors IF vs IFK Goteborg?
Our model estimates a 45% probability that both Degerfors IF and IFK Goteborg will score (BTTS).
Will Degerfors IF vs IFK Goteborg have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 40%.
What is the head-to-head record between Degerfors IF and IFK Goteborg?
Record (5 meetings): Degerfors IF 2W | Draws 0 | IFK Goteborg 3W.
What form are Degerfors IF and IFK Goteborg in?
Degerfors IF (all comps): 3W-2D-5L in 10 | 1.10 PPG | GF 0.90 / GA 1.70 | L5 W-L-L-W-W. IFK Goteborg (all comps): 2W-3D-5L in 10 | 0.90 PPG | GF 0.70 / GA 1.40 | L5 D-D-W-L-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Working from Degerfors IF's attack rating (0.90) and IFK Goteborg's defence rating (1.11), the model arrives at 1.40 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — IFK Goteborg's attack (0.68x) against Degerfors IF's defence (1.11x) — and the away total comes out at 0.90.
These ratings are built from 49/49 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 14.3%. Close behind: 1-0 (12.4%), 0-0 (11.7%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 38% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Degerfors IF Win
49%
2.06
27%
3.67
24%
4.13
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
14.0%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
12.6%
Draw
0 – 0
10.0%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.40
Degerfors IF xG
Total xG
2.30
0.90
IFK Goteborg xG
2.06
49%
Home win
3.67
27%
Draw
4.13
24%
Away win
Goals Markets
67%
Over 1.5
1.49
33%
Under 1.5
3.03
40%
Over 2.5
2.50
60%
Under 2.5
1.67
20%
Over 3.5
5.00
80%
Under 3.5
1.25
8%
Over 4.5
12.50
92%
Under 4.5
1.09
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
45%
BTTS Yes
2.24
55%
BTTS No
1.81
Clean Sheet
41%
2.46
25%
4.05
Win to Nil
20%
5.08
6%
16.70
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 10.0 | 9.0 | 4.1 | 1.2 | 0.3 | – |
| 1 | 14.0 | 12.6 | 5.7 | 1.7 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 9.8 | 8.8 | 4.0 | 1.2 | 0.3 | – |
| 3 | 4.6 | 4.1 | 1.9 | 0.6 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 1.6 | 1.4 | 0.6 | 0.2 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.4 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Degerfors IF vs IFK Goteborg?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.3%.
How many goals are Degerfors IF and IFK Goteborg expected to score?
The model projects 1.40 expected goals for Degerfors IF and 0.90 for IFK Goteborg, a combined total of 2.30.
How confident is the prediction model for Degerfors IF vs IFK Goteborg?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 49%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Degerfors IF come into this having played 49 games, going 13W 12D 24L for 1.04 points per game. Their last five reads W-L-L-W-W. The sample for Degerfors IF is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, IFK Goteborg sit at 1.24 PPG from 49 outings (17W 10D 22L), a run that reads D-D-W-L-W across their last five. The sample for IFK Goteborg is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.04 PPG for Degerfors IF against 1.24 for IFK Goteborg. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
Home & Away Splits
Degerfors IF's home form reads 9W 8D 7L across 24 games on their own ground, a 1.46 PPG return. That's noticeably better than their 1.04 PPG overall — Degerfors IF are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
Away from home, IFK Goteborg have taken 1.04 points per game from 24 outings (7W 4D 13L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Degerfors IF come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Degerfors IF are averaging 1.04 goals scored and 1.84 conceded per game recently; IFK Goteborg are on 1.20 scored and 1.27 conceded.
Last 49 Results — Allsvenskan
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Degerfors IF
Blended
IFK Goteborg
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Degerfors IF and IFK Goteborg in coming into this match?
Degerfors IF have gone 13W 12D 24L in their last 49 games (1.04 PPG), while IFK Goteborg have gone 17W 10D 22L in their last 49 (1.24 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Degerfors IF at home or IFK Goteborg away?
Degerfors IF's home record (1.46 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Degerfors IF at home: 1.46 PPG; IFK Goteborg away: 1.04 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 9 times since April 2021 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Allsvenskan. The two were last together as recently as 2 August 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Records & Recent Trends
IFK Goteborg have won the last 5 meetings between these two, a run that gives them the psychological edge coming in.
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: IFK Goteborg won 6-0 on 4 May 2023, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Degerfors IF have gone 1W 0D 3L from 4 meetings on their own ground against IFK Goteborg — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 9 Meetings
2
Degerfors IF
0
Draws
7
IFK Goteborg
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Degerfors IF and IFK Goteborg?
From 9 meetings on record, Degerfors IF have won 2, IFK Goteborg have won 7, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Degerfors IF and IFK Goteborg last play each other?
They last met on 2 August 2026, when IFK Goteborg 2-0 Degerfors IF.
Who has won more matches between Degerfors IF and IFK Goteborg?
IFK Goteborg have the better head-to-head record, with 7 wins from 9 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Degerfors IF are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 79% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 17% of those situations.
IFK Goteborg are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 79% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 33% of the time.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Degerfors IF 54%, IFK Goteborg 38% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 50% (Degerfors IF) and 50% (IFK Goteborg).
On the defensive side: Degerfors IF have failed to score in 38% of games; IFK Goteborg in 46%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Degerfors IF home games / IFK Goteborg away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Degerfors IF play IFK Goteborg?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 54% of Degerfors IF's recent matches and 38% of IFK Goteborg's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Degerfors IF vs IFK Goteborg usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 50% of Degerfors IF's recent games and 50% of IFK Goteborg's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Degerfors IF and IFK Goteborg tend to score early?
Degerfors IF have had a goal before half-time in 79% of their recent matches, IFK Goteborg in 79% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as IFK Goteborg defy the odds to beat Degerfors IF 1-2.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
IFK Goteborg beat Degerfors IF 1-2 at Stora Valla, Regular Season - 20, in the Allsvenskan. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Degerfors IF 1.40 xG and IFK Goteborg 0.90 xG, a combined 2.30. The scoreboard read 1-2 for 3 actual goals. IFK Goteborg outscored their 0.90 projection by 1.1. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Degerfors IF attack 0.90 / defence 1.11 against IFK Goteborg attack 0.68 / defence 1.11, drawn from 49/49 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Degerfors IF 49% | Draw 27% | IFK Goteborg 24%, with Degerfors IF to win its most likely call at 49%. Instead the game produced a IFK Goteborg win, an outcome the model had rated at just 24% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 40%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 67% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 45% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 49% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Degerfors IF 55%, IFK Goteborg 43%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 50%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Degerfors IF's trading profile (49 games, 24 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 57% of their matches — today it did.
IFK Goteborg's trading profile (49 games, 24 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 43% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Degerfors IF 1.04 PPG, IFK Goteborg 1.24 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the IFK Goteborg win broke the near-deadlock. IFK Goteborg (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 1.12 average — above their attacking norm.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.