Halmstad 1-4 IF Elfsborg – Result & Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson rates IF Elfsborg at 43% — the H2H record provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Halmstad vs IF Elfsborg encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Halmstad and IF Elfsborg meet at Örjans Vall in Allsvenskan, Regular Season - 11. This fixture gets under way on Sunday 25 May 2025 at 13:00 UTC.
Form
Halmstad (all games): 3W 3D 4L across 10 Allsvenskan fixtures this term — 1.20 PPG. Last five: L W W W L. They are averaging 1.00 goals per game and conceding 1.40 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation.
In front of their own supporters this season, Halmstad have posted 4W 2D 4L at Örjans Vall — 1.40 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.20 goals scored and 0.80 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground. At home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle.
IF Elfsborg have collected 1.30 PPG across 10 Allsvenskan outings this season: 3W 4D 3L. Last five: L L L W D. Their scoring rate of 1.30 per game is modest, conceding 1.50 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
IF Elfsborg's away record: 3W 3D 4L from 10 road trips in Allsvenskan this season (1.20 PPG). Away from home they average 1.60 goals scored and 1.70 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
Both sides are running at similar form levels — 1.20 PPG for Halmstad against 1.30 for IF Elfsborg. There is no clear form edge to exploit here; other signals need to take the lead.
H2H Analysis
The head-to-head ledger leans to IF Elfsborg, who have claimed 5 wins from 6 meetings compared to 1 for the hosts, with 0 draws.
Attacking output has been a hallmark of this fixture. At 2.8 goals per game across 6 meetings, the Over 2.5 has a statistically grounded case from the head-to-head record alone. The most recent clash, on 15 Sep 2024, ended 0–1 with IF Elfsborg winning.
The H2H provides genuine backing for the away side. IF Elfsborg have won 5 of 6 previous encounters, and at 2.8 goals per game, the goals market also points upward. The away win and Over 2.5 combination has a historical case worth noting.
Trading
Halmstad half-time and goal-timing data (60 games, 30 at home): they score before half-time in 73% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; BTTS occurs in 33% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 43% of games (home games); they fail to score in 37% of games.
IF Elfsborg half-time and goal-timing data (60 games, 30 at away): they score before half-time in 70% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 79% of the time; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 60% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Halmstad 45% versus IF Elfsborg 52%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Halmstad 50% | IF Elfsborg 62%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Halmstad 1.29 xG and IF Elfsborg 1.57 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Halmstad attack 1.007 / defence 1.413 | IF Elfsborg attack 0.825 / defence 0.931. League average goals — home 1.382 / away 1.345. Data: 40 Halmstad games / 40 IF Elfsborg games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Halmstad 31% | Draw 26% | IF Elfsborg 43%. Fair-value odds: Halmstad 3.23 | Draw 3.85 | IF Elfsborg 2.33. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 26% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 55% | BTTS probability 58% | Total xG 2.86. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 55% — the 2.86 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS probability of 58% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is IF Elfsborg at 43% — marginal model lean. Draw probability of 26% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on IF Elfsborg if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 31% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 2.86 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 55% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by H2H averaging 2.8 goals per meeting.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 58% on Yes. Form rates are neutral: Halmstad 30% | IF Elfsborg 70%.
The outsider holds a 31% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
🔮 Your Prediction
Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.
💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Halmstad vs IF Elfsborg | Competition: Allsvenskan, Regular Season - 11 | Venue: Örjans Vall • Kick-off: Sunday 25 May 2025, 13:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Halmstad 31% | Draw 26% | IF Elfsborg 43% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 55% | BTTS 58% | xG Halmstad 1.29 / IF Elfsborg 1.57 • Poisson strength factors: Halmstad attack 1.007 / def 1.413 | IF Elfsborg attack 0.825 / def 0.931 | league avg home 1.382 / away 1.345 • Poisson stance: IF Elfsborg (43%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.29
Halmstad xG
Expected Goals
1.57
IF Elfsborg xG
58%
BTTS
79%
Over 1.5
55%
Over 2.5
32%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Halmstad vs IF Elfsborg kick off?
Halmstad vs IF Elfsborg kicked off at 13:00 on Sunday 25 May 2025 at Örjans Vall.
What was the final score in Halmstad vs IF Elfsborg?
Halmstad 1 - 4 IF Elfsborg.
Where is Halmstad vs IF Elfsborg being played?
The match is being played at Örjans Vall.
What competition is Halmstad vs IF Elfsborg part of?
Halmstad vs IF Elfsborg is a Regular Season - 11 fixture in the Allsvenskan (Sweden).
Who is favourite to win Halmstad vs IF Elfsborg?
Our statistical model gives Halmstad a 31% chance of winning, IF Elfsborg a 43% chance, and a 26% chance of a draw — making IF Elfsborg the favourite.
Will both teams score in Halmstad vs IF Elfsborg?
Our model estimates a 58% probability that both Halmstad and IF Elfsborg will score (BTTS).
Will Halmstad vs IF Elfsborg have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 55%.
What is the head-to-head record between Halmstad and IF Elfsborg?
Record (6 meetings): Halmstad 1W | Draws 0 | IF Elfsborg 5W.
What form are Halmstad and IF Elfsborg in?
Halmstad (all comps): 3W-3D-4L in 10 | 1.20 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 1.40 | L5 L-W-W-W-L. IF Elfsborg (all comps): 3W-4D-3L in 10 | 1.30 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 1.50 | L5 L-L-L-W-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
The model rates Halmstad's attack at 1.01x the league average against IF Elfsborg's defence at 0.93x — combine the two and it projects 1.29 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — IF Elfsborg's attack (0.82x) against Halmstad's defence (1.41x) — and the away total comes out at 1.57.
These ratings are built from 40/40 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 13.1% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-2 (9.1%), 2-1 (7.5%). Together the top three scorelines make up 30% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
IF Elfsborg Win
31%
3.24
26%
3.83
43%
2.32
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.6%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 2
9.1%
Away win
0 – 1
9.0%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.29
Halmstad xG
Total xG
2.86
1.57
IF Elfsborg xG
3.24
31%
Home win
3.83
26%
Draw
2.32
43%
Away win
Goals Markets
78%
Over 1.5
1.28
22%
Under 1.5
4.55
55%
Over 2.5
1.82
45%
Under 2.5
2.22
32%
Over 3.5
3.12
68%
Under 3.5
1.47
16%
Over 4.5
6.25
84%
Under 4.5
1.19
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
58%
BTTS Yes
1.72
42%
BTTS No
2.39
Clean Sheet
21%
4.79
27%
3.65
Win to Nil
6%
15.54
12%
8.47
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.7 | 9.0 | 7.0 | 3.7 | 1.4 | 0.5 |
| 1 | 7.4 | 11.6 | 9.1 | 4.7 | 1.9 | 0.6 |
| 2 | 4.8 | 7.5 | 5.9 | 3.1 | 1.2 | 0.4 |
| 3 | 2.1 | 3.2 | 2.5 | 1.3 | 0.5 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 0.7 | 1.0 | 0.8 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Halmstad vs IF Elfsborg?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.1%.
How many goals are Halmstad and IF Elfsborg expected to score?
The model projects 1.29 expected goals for Halmstad and 1.57 for IF Elfsborg, a combined total of 2.86.
How confident is the prediction model for Halmstad vs IF Elfsborg?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 43%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Halmstad come into this having played 60 games, going 19W 12D 29L for 1.15 points per game. Their last five reads L-W-W-W-L.
On the other side, IF Elfsborg sit at 1.82 PPG from 60 outings (33W 10D 17L), a run that reads L-L-L-W-D across their last five.
IF Elfsborg carry the stronger recent form of the two, 0.67 PPG clear of Halmstad — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
Home & Away Splits
Halmstad's home form reads 12W 7D 11L across 30 games on their own ground, a 1.43 PPG return.
Away from home, IF Elfsborg have taken 1.53 points per game from 30 outings (14W 4D 12L).
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Halmstad are averaging 1.03 goals scored and 1.57 conceded per game recently; IF Elfsborg are on 1.85 scored and 1.17 conceded.
Defensively: IF Elfsborg in 35% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 60 Results — Allsvenskan
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Halmstad
Current Season
IF Elfsborg
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Halmstad and IF Elfsborg in coming into this match?
Halmstad have gone 19W 12D 29L in their last 60 games (1.15 PPG), while IF Elfsborg have gone 33W 10D 17L in their last 60 (1.82 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Halmstad at home or IF Elfsborg away?
IF Elfsborg's away record (1.53 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Halmstad at home: 1.43 PPG; IF Elfsborg away: 1.53 PPG.
Have Halmstad or IF Elfsborg been keeping clean sheets recently?
Halmstad have kept a clean sheet in 28% of their recent games, IF Elfsborg in 35%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 9 times since May 2021 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Allsvenskan. They last met on 16 May 2026, roughly 4 months ago.
Records & Recent Trends
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: IF Elfsborg won 6-1 on 3 May 2023, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Halmstad have gone 0W 1D 4L from 5 meetings on their own ground against IF Elfsborg — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 9 Meetings
2
Halmstad
1
Draws
6
IF Elfsborg
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Halmstad and IF Elfsborg?
From 9 meetings on record, Halmstad have won 2, IF Elfsborg have won 6, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Halmstad and IF Elfsborg last play each other?
They last met on 16 May 2026, when Halmstad 1-1 IF Elfsborg.
Who has won more matches between Halmstad and IF Elfsborg?
IF Elfsborg have the better head-to-head record, with 6 wins from 9 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Halmstad are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 73% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 37% of the time.
IF Elfsborg are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 70% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 13% of those situations.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Halmstad 33%, IF Elfsborg 50% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 43% (Halmstad) and 60% (IF Elfsborg).
On the defensive side: Halmstad keep a clean sheet in 40% of their matches; Halmstad have failed to score in 40% of games; IF Elfsborg in 27%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Halmstad home games / IF Elfsborg away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Halmstad play IF Elfsborg?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 33% of Halmstad's recent matches and 50% of IF Elfsborg's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Halmstad vs IF Elfsborg usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 43% of Halmstad's recent games and 60% of IF Elfsborg's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Halmstad and IF Elfsborg tend to score early?
Halmstad have had a goal before half-time in 73% of their recent matches, IF Elfsborg in 70% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant IF Elfsborg run riot with a 1-4 hammering of Halmstad.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
IF Elfsborg beat Halmstad 1-4 at Örjans Vall, Regular Season - 11, in the Allsvenskan. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Halmstad 1.29 xG and IF Elfsborg 1.57 xG, a combined 2.86. The scoreboard read 1-4 for 5 actual goals. IF Elfsborg outscored their 1.57 projection by 2.4. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Halmstad attack 1.01 / defence 1.41 against IF Elfsborg attack 0.82 / defence 0.93, drawn from 40/40 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Halmstad 31% | Draw 26% | IF Elfsborg 43%, with IF Elfsborg to win its most likely call at 43%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 55%. The game delivered 5, so it went over — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 79% and landed. Over 3.5 was 32% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 58% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 56% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Halmstad 50%, IF Elfsborg 62%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 48%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Halmstad's trading profile (60 games, 30 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 45% of their matches — today it did.
IF Elfsborg's trading profile (60 games, 30 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 52% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 35% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
On form, IF Elfsborg arrived the stronger side — 1.82 PPG against 1.15. Form held, and they took the win. Halmstad (home/away splits) shipped 4 against a 1.03 concession average — a leakier day than usual. IF Elfsborg (home/away splits) scored 4 against a 1.53 average — above their attacking norm.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 4 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (hit). A strong night for the model: the result sat comfortably inside what the pre-match data projected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.