Gais 1-1 IFK Varnamo – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Gais at 57%, yet other data sources diverge — this Gais vs IFK Varnamo fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Gais host IFK Varnamo at Gamla Ullevi in Allsvenskan, Regular Season - 8. Kick-off is scheduled for Saturday 10 May 2025 at 16:30 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Gais stand at 4W 4D 2L from 10 Allsvenskan matches — 1.60 PPG. Last five: L D D W W. They are averaging 1.20 goals per game and conceding 1.00 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation.
In front of their own supporters this season, Gais have posted 5W 4D 1L at Gamla Ullevi — 1.90 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.40 goals scored and 0.40 conceded per game. 6 clean sheets from 10 home games (60%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Gamla Ullevi. At home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle.
IFK Varnamo — All Games: 3W 6D 1L from 10 Allsvenskan fixtures this season — 1.50 PPG. Last five: L W D D W. Their scoring rate of 1.00 per game is modest, conceding 0.70 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Defensively, 0.70 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not.
When travelling in Allsvenskan this season, IFK Varnamo have posted 1W 6D 3L from 10 away outings — 0.90 PPG. Away from home they average 0.70 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game. Their away PPG of 0.90 is notably below their overall 1.50 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
The form figures are too closely matched to derive a directional pick: Gais 1.60 PPG, IFK Varnamo 1.50 PPG. Look to other data sets to build the analysis.
H2H
The H2H landscape is flat: 4 previous encounters have yielded 1 wins for Gais, 2 for IFK Varnamo and 1 draws. A neutral reading in isolation.
The last 4 meetings have been tight affairs, averaging just 1.8 goals per game. That low-scoring pattern is a meaningful historical input for the Under 2.5 market. The most recent clash, on 20 Oct 2024, ended 0–0 with a draw.
With a balanced win record and just 1.8 goals per game historically, the H2H points toward a tight, low-scoring contest. Under 2.5 goals has the strongest statistical grounding from the fixture history regardless of which side wins.
Trading Patterns
Gais in-play and half-time data (60 games, 30 at home): they score before half-time in 73% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 59% of the time; BTTS occurs in 40% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 53% of games (home games); they fail to score in 32% of games.
IFK Varnamo in-play and half-time data (60 games, 30 at away): they score before half-time in 77% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 72% of the time; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 47% of games (away games); they fail to score in 30% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Gais 43% versus IFK Varnamo 47%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Gais 55% | IFK Varnamo 45%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Gais 1.77 xG and IFK Varnamo 0.93 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Gais attack 0.905 / defence 0.757 | IFK Varnamo attack 0.965 / defence 1.428. League average goals — home 1.373 / away 1.270. IFK Varnamo bring a strong defensive rating of 1.428 — this is suppressing Gais's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Gais's defence rating of 0.757 is below average — the home backline is amplifying the visitor's projected output. Data: 37 Gais games / 37 IFK Varnamo games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Gais 57% | Draw 23% | IFK Varnamo 19%. Fair-value odds: Gais 1.75 | Draw 4.35 | IFK Varnamo 5.26. The model has a clear lean to Gais (57%) — a 38pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 51% | BTTS probability 50% | Total xG 2.70. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 51%/49% — the total xG of 2.70 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 50% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Gais are the pick at 57% — clear model lean. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 23% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
Poisson projects 2.70 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 51% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction — though form averaging only 1.8 goals per game and H2H averaging only 1.8 goals per meeting point in the other direction.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 50%. This conflicts with form data: Gais 30% | IFK Varnamo 50% from recent games — a notable divergence.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Gais vs IFK Varnamo | Competition: Allsvenskan, Regular Season - 8 | Venue: Gamla Ullevi • Kick-off: Saturday 10 May 2025, 16:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Gais 57% | Draw 23% | IFK Varnamo 19% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 51% | BTTS 50% | xG Gais 1.77 / IFK Varnamo 0.93 • Poisson strength factors: Gais attack 0.905 / def 0.757 | IFK Varnamo attack 0.965 / def 1.428 | league avg home 1.373 / away 1.270 • Poisson stance: Gais (57%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.77
Gais xG
Expected Goals
0.93
IFK Varnamo xG
50%
BTTS
75%
Over 1.5
51%
Over 2.5
29%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Gais vs IFK Varnamo kick off?
Gais vs IFK Varnamo kicked off at 16:30 on Saturday 10 May 2025 at Gamla Ullevi.
What was the final score in Gais vs IFK Varnamo?
Gais 1 - 1 IFK Varnamo.
Where is Gais vs IFK Varnamo being played?
The match is being played at Gamla Ullevi.
What competition is Gais vs IFK Varnamo part of?
Gais vs IFK Varnamo is a Regular Season - 8 fixture in the Allsvenskan (Sweden).
Who is favourite to win Gais vs IFK Varnamo?
Our statistical model gives Gais a 57% chance of winning, IFK Varnamo a 19% chance, and a 23% chance of a draw — making Gais the favourite.
Will both teams score in Gais vs IFK Varnamo?
Our model estimates a 50% probability that both Gais and IFK Varnamo will score (BTTS).
Will Gais vs IFK Varnamo have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 51%.
What is the head-to-head record between Gais and IFK Varnamo?
Record (4 meetings): Gais 1W | Draws 1 | IFK Varnamo 2W.
What form are Gais and IFK Varnamo in?
Gais (all comps): 4W-4D-2L in 10 | 1.60 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 1.00 | L5 L-D-D-W-W. IFK Varnamo (all comps): 3W-6D-1L in 10 | 1.50 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 0.70 | L5 L-W-D-D-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Working from Gais's attack rating (0.91) and IFK Varnamo's defence rating (1.43), the model arrives at 1.77 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, IFK Varnamo's attack versus Gais's defence, projects 0.93 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 37/37 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 12.5%. Close behind: 2-0 (10.6%), 1-0 (10.5%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 34% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Gais Win
57%
1.75
23%
4.30
19%
5.14
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
11.9%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
11.1%
Draw
2 – 0
10.6%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.77
Gais xG
Total xG
2.70
0.93
IFK Varnamo xG
1.75
57%
Home win
4.30
23%
Draw
5.14
19%
Away win
Goals Markets
75%
Over 1.5
1.33
25%
Under 1.5
4.00
51%
Over 2.5
1.96
49%
Under 2.5
2.04
29%
Over 3.5
3.45
71%
Under 3.5
1.41
14%
Over 4.5
7.14
86%
Under 4.5
1.16
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
50%
BTTS Yes
1.99
50%
BTTS No
2.01
Clean Sheet
40%
2.53
17%
5.88
Win to Nil
23%
4.41
3%
30.21
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.7 | 6.2 | 2.9 | 0.9 | 0.2 | – |
| 1 | 11.9 | 11.1 | 5.1 | 1.6 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 10.6 | 9.8 | 4.5 | 1.4 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 6.2 | 5.8 | 2.7 | 0.8 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 2.8 | 2.6 | 1.2 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 1.0 | 0.9 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Gais vs IFK Varnamo?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.5%.
How many goals are Gais and IFK Varnamo expected to score?
The model projects 1.77 expected goals for Gais and 0.93 for IFK Varnamo, a combined total of 2.70.
How confident is the prediction model for Gais vs IFK Varnamo?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 57%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Across their last 60 outings, Gais have picked up 1.75 PPG on a 31W 12D 17L record — L-D-D-W-W across the most recent five.
IFK Varnamo's form line: 21W 14D 25L from 60 games, 1.28 PPG, last five L-W-D-D-W.
Put side by side, Gais are the form team by 0.47 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against IFK Varnamo.
Home Ground vs the Road
On home soil, Gais have posted 2.00 PPG from 30 outings (18W 6D 6L).
On the road, IFK Varnamo have gone 12W 8D 10L from 30 away games — 1.47 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Gais come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Gais are averaging 1.62 goals scored and 0.95 conceded per game recently; IFK Varnamo are on 1.15 scored and 1.25 conceded.
Defensively: Gais have kept a clean sheet in 37% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 60 Results — Allsvenskan
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Gais
Current Season
IFK Varnamo
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Gais and IFK Varnamo in coming into this match?
Gais have gone 31W 12D 17L in their last 60 games (1.75 PPG), while IFK Varnamo have gone 21W 14D 25L in their last 60 (1.28 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Gais at home or IFK Varnamo away?
Gais's home record (2.00 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Gais at home: 2.00 PPG; IFK Varnamo away: 1.47 PPG.
Have Gais or IFK Varnamo been keeping clean sheets recently?
Gais have kept a clean sheet in 37% of their recent games, IFK Varnamo in 32%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Gais and IFK Varnamo runs to 6 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to May 2021. The pairing has crossed competitions too — Superettan, Allsvenskan all feature in the head-to-head log. It has been a while since the last meeting — 2 August 2025, some 4 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Digging Into the Numbers
The last 3 meetings have all been drawn — an unusually settled recent run for this fixture.
Gais's record when hosting IFK Varnamo specifically: 0W 2D 1L from 3 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 6 Meetings
1
Gais
3
Draws
2
IFK Varnamo
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Gais and IFK Varnamo?
From 6 meetings on record, Gais have won 1, IFK Varnamo have won 2, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Gais and IFK Varnamo last play each other?
They last met on 2 August 2025, when IFK Varnamo 2-2 Gais.
Who has won more matches between Gais and IFK Varnamo?
IFK Varnamo have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from 6 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Gais are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 73% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 50% of the time.
IFK Varnamo are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 77% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 40% of the time.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Gais 40%, IFK Varnamo 50% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 53% (Gais) and 47% (IFK Varnamo).
On the defensive side: Gais keep a clean sheet in 40% of their matches; IFK Varnamo in 33%; Gais have failed to score in 30% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Gais home games / IFK Varnamo away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Gais play IFK Varnamo?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 40% of Gais's recent matches and 50% of IFK Varnamo's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Gais vs IFK Varnamo usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 53% of Gais's recent games and 47% of IFK Varnamo's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Gais and IFK Varnamo tend to score early?
Gais have had a goal before half-time in 73% of their recent matches, IFK Varnamo in 77% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Gais and IFK Varnamo share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at Gamla Ullevi, Regular Season - 8, as Gais and IFK Varnamo drew 1-1 in the Allsvenskan. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Gais 1.77 xG and IFK Varnamo 0.93 xG, a combined 2.70. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Gais attack 0.91 / defence 0.76 against IFK Varnamo attack 0.96 / defence 1.43, drawn from 37/37 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Gais 57% | Draw 23% | IFK Varnamo 19%, with Gais to win its most likely call at 57%. Instead the game produced a draw, an outcome the model had rated at just 23% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 51%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 75% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 50% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 50% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Gais 55%, IFK Varnamo 45%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 45%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Gais's trading profile (60 games, 30 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 43% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 37% of the time, and conceded here.
IFK Varnamo's trading profile (60 games, 30 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 47% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 32% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
On form, Gais arrived the stronger side — 1.75 PPG against 1.28. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit), form (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.