Gais 2-1 IFK Goteborg – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates IFK Goteborg at 57% — neither recent form nor the head-to-head data gives a clear steer either way as Gais face IFK Goteborg.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Gais and IFK Goteborg meet at Gamla Ullevi in Allsvenskan (matchday 7). This fixture gets under way on Monday 6 May 2024 at 19:10 UK time.
Form & Momentum
IFK Goteborg (all games): 4W 3D 3L across their last 10 — 1.50 points per game. Last five: L L L D W. Their scoring rate of 1.40 per game is modest, conceding 1.30 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings (20%). Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
IFK Goteborg's form when playing away from home: 3W 4D 3L across their last 10 road games (1.30 PPG). Away from home they average 1.00 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Gais 0.87 xG and IFK Goteborg 1.71 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Gais attack 0.817 / defence 1.286 | IFK Goteborg attack 0.945 / defence 0.692. League average goals — home 1.531 / away 1.410. IFK Goteborg bring a tight defence (rating 0.692, below 1 = concedes less than average) — this is pulling Gais's projected output down. Gais's defence rating of 1.286 (above 1 = concedes more than average) is pushing IFK Goteborg's projected output up. Data: built from Gais's last 6 games and IFK Goteborg's last 36.
Result probabilities: Gais 19% | Draw 24% | IFK Goteborg 57%. Fair-value odds: Gais 5.32 | Draw 4.21 | IFK Goteborg 1.74. The model has a clear lean to IFK Goteborg (57%) — a 33pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 48% | BTTS Yes probability 47% | Total xG 2.58. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 48%/52% — the total xG of 2.58 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS No at 53% is only a slight lean — the model gives both sides a fair chance of scoring, so No isn't a clear standalone call.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is IFK Goteborg at 57% — clear model lean. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 24% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
Poisson projects 2.58 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 52% probability — a Poisson-only call with no corroboration from form or H2H.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Gais vs IFK Goteborg | Competition: Allsvenskan, matchday 7 | Venue: Gamla Ullevi • Kick-off: Monday 6 May 2024 at 19:10 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Gais 19% | Draw 24% | IFK Goteborg 57% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 48% (Under 52%) | BTTS Yes 47% (No 53%) | xG Gais 0.87 / IFK Goteborg 1.71 • Poisson strength factors: Gais attack 0.817 / def 1.286 | IFK Goteborg attack 0.945 / def 0.692 | league avg home 1.531 / away 1.410 • Poisson stance: IFK Goteborg (57%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
0.87
Gais xG
Expected Goals
1.71
IFK Goteborg xG
47%
BTTS
73%
Over 1.5
48%
Over 2.5
26%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Gais vs IFK Goteborg FAQs
What time does Gais vs IFK Goteborg kick off?
Gais vs IFK Goteborg kicked off at 19:10 UK time on Monday 6 May 2024 at Gamla Ullevi.
What was the final score in Gais vs IFK Goteborg?
Gais 2 - 1 IFK Goteborg.
Where is Gais vs IFK Goteborg being played?
The match is being played at Gamla Ullevi.
What competition is Gais vs IFK Goteborg part of?
Gais vs IFK Goteborg is a Allsvenskan fixture (matchday 7) (Sweden).
Who is favourite to win Gais vs IFK Goteborg?
Our statistical model gives Gais a 19% chance of winning, IFK Goteborg a 57% chance, and a 24% chance of a draw — making IFK Goteborg the favourite.
Will both teams score in Gais vs IFK Goteborg?
Our model estimates a 47% probability that both Gais and IFK Goteborg will score, so it leans towards BTTS No (53%).
Will Gais vs IFK Goteborg have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 48%, so it leans towards under 2.5 goals (52%).
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Working from Gais's attack rating (0.82) and IFK Goteborg's defence rating (0.69), the model arrives at 0.87 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — IFK Goteborg's attack (0.94x) against Gais's defence (1.29x) — and the away total comes out at 1.71.
These ratings are built from Gais's last 6 games and IFK Goteborg's last 36 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 12.7%. Close behind: 0-1 (11.5%), 0-2 (11.1%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 35% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
IFK Goteborg Win
19%
5.32
24%
4.21
57%
1.74
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 1
13.0%
Away win
Most likely
1 – 1
11.3%
Draw
0 – 2
11.1%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.87
Gais xG
Total xG
2.58
1.71
IFK Goteborg xG
5.32
19%
Home win
4.21
24%
Draw
1.74
57%
Away win
Goals Markets
73%
Over 1.5
1.37
27%
Under 1.5
3.70
48%
Over 2.5
2.08
52%
Under 2.5
1.92
26%
Over 3.5
3.85
74%
Under 3.5
1.35
12%
Over 4.5
8.33
88%
Under 4.5
1.14
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
47%
BTTS Yes
2.11
53%
BTTS No
1.90
Clean Sheet
18%
5.55
42%
2.38
Win to Nil
3%
29.51
24%
4.14
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.6 | 13.0 | 11.1 | 6.4 | 2.7 | 0.9 |
| 1 | 6.6 | 11.3 | 9.6 | 5.5 | 2.4 | 0.8 |
| 2 | 2.8 | 4.9 | 4.2 | 2.4 | 1.0 | 0.3 |
| 3 | 0.8 | 1.4 | 1.2 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.2 | 0.3 | 0.3 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | – | 0.1 | – | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Gais vs IFK Goteborg Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Gais vs IFK Goteborg?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.7%.
How many goals are Gais and IFK Goteborg expected to score?
The model projects 0.87 expected goals for Gais and 1.71 for IFK Goteborg, a combined total of 2.58.
How confident is the prediction model for Gais vs IFK Goteborg?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 57%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
Last 0 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Gais
Pre-Season
IFK Goteborg
Pre-Season
No results found.
No results found.
Gais (Home) vs IFK Goteborg (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Gais
Pre-Season
IFK Goteborg
Pre-Season
No results found for this venue split.
No results found for this venue split.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
Our data holds 6 H2H matches between Gais and IFK Goteborg, the earliest from May 2024. All of them came in Allsvenskan. The most recent was as recently as 25 October 2026, so it is a fresh reference point.
Notable Numbers
The most recent 2 H2H matches in our data have all been drawn — an unusually settled run for this fixture.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Gais have gone 1W 1D 1L from the 3 H2H matches in our data played on their own ground against IFK Goteborg — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 6 Meetings
1
Gais
3
Draws
2
IFK Goteborg
Recent Meetings
❓ Gais vs IFK Goteborg H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Gais and IFK Goteborg?
Across the 6 head-to-head matches in our data, Gais have won 1, IFK Goteborg have won 2, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Gais and IFK Goteborg last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 25 October 2026: Gais 1-1 IFK Goteborg.
Who has won more matches between Gais and IFK Goteborg?
IFK Goteborg have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from the 6 head-to-head matches in our data.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Gais home games / IFK Goteborg away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
Shock result as Gais defy the odds to beat IFK Goteborg 2-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Gais beat IFK Goteborg 2-1 at Gamla Ullevi, Regular Season - 7, in the Allsvenskan. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Gais 0.87 xG and IFK Goteborg 1.71 xG, a combined 2.58. The scoreboard read 2-1 for 3 actual goals. Gais beat their projection by 1.1 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Gais attack 0.82 / defence 1.29 against IFK Goteborg attack 0.94 / defence 0.69, drawn from 6/36 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Gais 19% | Draw 24% | IFK Goteborg 57%, with IFK Goteborg to win its most likely call at 57%. Instead the game produced a Gais win, an outcome the model had rated at just 19% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 48%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 73% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 47% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.