Djurgardens IF 1-0 Gais – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Djurgardens IF at 51% — neither recent form nor the head-to-head data gives a clear steer either way as Djurgardens IF face Gais.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Djurgardens IF and Gais meet at Tele2 Arena in Allsvenskan (matchday 6). This fixture gets under way on Sunday 28 April 2024 at 16:30 UK time.
Current Form
Djurgardens IF's record over their last 10 games: 5W 1D 4L (1.60 PPG). Last five: W D W L L. They are averaging 1.40 goals per game and conceding 1.20 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base.
At home, Djurgardens IF have gone 5W 2D 3L in their last 10 home games (1.70 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.50 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game. 5 clean sheets from their last 10 home games (50%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at home.
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Djurgardens IF 1.73 xG and Gais 1.15 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Djurgardens IF attack 1.088 / defence 0.939 | Gais attack 0.926 / defence 1.079. League average goals — home 1.471 / away 1.322. Data: built from Djurgardens IF's last 35 games and Gais's last 5.
Result probabilities: Djurgardens IF 51% | Draw 24% | Gais 25%. Fair-value odds: Djurgardens IF 1.96 | Draw 4.21 | Gais 3.94. Djurgardens IF hold a narrow Poisson edge at 51% — the draw (24%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 55% | BTTS Yes probability 56% | Total xG 2.88. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 55% — the 2.88 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 56% is only a slight lean — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, Djurgardens IF are the pick at 51% — moderate model lean. Draw probability of 24% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Djurgardens IF if the outright odds are short.
Poisson projects 2.88 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 55% probability — a Poisson-only call with no corroboration from form or H2H.
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🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Djurgardens IF vs Gais | Competition: Allsvenskan, matchday 6 | Venue: Tele2 Arena • Kick-off: Sunday 28 April 2024 at 16:30 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Djurgardens IF 51% | Draw 24% | Gais 25% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 55% (Under 45%) | BTTS Yes 56% (No 44%) | xG Djurgardens IF 1.73 / Gais 1.15 • Poisson strength factors: Djurgardens IF attack 1.088 / def 0.939 | Gais attack 0.926 / def 1.079 | league avg home 1.471 / away 1.322 • Poisson stance: Djurgardens IF (51%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.73
Djurgardens IF xG
Expected Goals
1.15
Gais xG
56%
BTTS
78%
Over 1.5
55%
Over 2.5
32%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Djurgardens IF vs Gais FAQs
What time does Djurgardens IF vs Gais kick off?
Djurgardens IF vs Gais kicked off at 16:30 UK time on Sunday 28 April 2024 at Tele2 Arena.
What was the final score in Djurgardens IF vs Gais?
Djurgardens IF 1 - 0 Gais.
Where is Djurgardens IF vs Gais being played?
The match is being played at Tele2 Arena.
What competition is Djurgardens IF vs Gais part of?
Djurgardens IF vs Gais is a Allsvenskan fixture (matchday 6) (Sweden).
Who is favourite to win Djurgardens IF vs Gais?
Our statistical model gives Djurgardens IF a 51% chance of winning, Gais a 25% chance, and a 24% chance of a draw — making Djurgardens IF the favourite.
Will both teams score in Djurgardens IF vs Gais?
Our model estimates a 56% probability that both Djurgardens IF and Gais will score, so it leans towards BTTS Yes.
Will Djurgardens IF vs Gais have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 55%, so it leans towards over 2.5 goals.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Working from Djurgardens IF's attack rating (1.09) and Gais's defence rating (1.08), the model arrives at 1.73 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Gais's attack (0.93x) against Djurgardens IF's defence (0.94x) — and the away total comes out at 1.15.
These ratings are built from Djurgardens IF's last 35 games and Gais's last 5 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 12.6%. Close behind: 2-1 (9.7%), 2-0 (8.4%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 31% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Djurgardens IF Win
51%
1.96
24%
4.21
25%
3.94
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.2%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
9.7%
Home win
2 – 1
9.7%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.73
Djurgardens IF xG
Total xG
2.88
1.15
Gais xG
1.96
51%
Home win
4.21
24%
Draw
3.94
25%
Away win
Goals Markets
78%
Over 1.5
1.28
22%
Under 1.5
4.55
55%
Over 2.5
1.82
45%
Under 2.5
2.22
33%
Over 3.5
3.03
67%
Under 3.5
1.49
16%
Over 4.5
6.25
84%
Under 4.5
1.19
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
56%
BTTS Yes
1.78
44%
BTTS No
2.28
Clean Sheet
32%
3.16
18%
5.62
Win to Nil
16%
6.20
5%
22.18
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.6 | 6.5 | 3.7 | 1.4 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 9.7 | 11.2 | 6.4 | 2.5 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 8.4 | 9.7 | 5.5 | 2.1 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 4.8 | 5.6 | 3.2 | 1.2 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 2.1 | 2.4 | 1.4 | 0.5 | 0.2 | – |
| 5 | 0.7 | 0.8 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Djurgardens IF vs Gais Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Djurgardens IF vs Gais?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.6%.
How many goals are Djurgardens IF and Gais expected to score?
The model projects 1.73 expected goals for Djurgardens IF and 1.15 for Gais, a combined total of 2.88.
How confident is the prediction model for Djurgardens IF vs Gais?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 51%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
Last 0 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Djurgardens IF
Pre-Season
Gais
Pre-Season
No results found.
No results found.
Djurgardens IF (Home) vs Gais (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Djurgardens IF
Pre-Season
Gais
Pre-Season
No results found for this venue split.
No results found for this venue split.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
We have 6 H2H matches between these sides on record, dating back to April 2024 — enough to show some patterns. All of them came in Allsvenskan. The most recent was as recently as 14 September 2026, so it is a fresh reference point.
Records & Recent Trends
Djurgardens IF have won each of the latest 2 H2H matches we hold, a run that gives them the edge coming in.
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Gais won Gais 3-0 Djurgardens IF on 22 Sep 2024, the biggest margin in the H2H matches we hold.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Djurgardens IF have gone 2W 1D 0L from the 3 H2H matches in our data played on their own ground against Gais — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 6 Meetings
3
Djurgardens IF
1
Draws
2
Gais
Recent Meetings
❓ Djurgardens IF vs Gais H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Djurgardens IF and Gais?
Across the 6 head-to-head matches in our data, Djurgardens IF have won 3, Gais have won 2, and 1 has been drawn.
When did Djurgardens IF and Gais last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 14 September 2026: Djurgardens IF 2-0 Gais.
Who has won more matches between Djurgardens IF and Gais?
Djurgardens IF have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from the 6 head-to-head matches in our data.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Djurgardens IF home games / Gais away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
Prediction vindicated as Djurgardens IF edge out Gais 1-0.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Djurgardens IF beat Gais 1-0 at Tele2 Arena, Regular Season - 6, in the Allsvenskan. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Djurgardens IF 1.73 xG and Gais 1.15 xG, a combined 2.88. The scoreboard read 1-0 for 1 actual goal. Gais landed 1.1 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Djurgardens IF attack 1.09 / defence 0.94 against Gais attack 0.93 / defence 1.08, drawn from 35/5 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Djurgardens IF 51% | Draw 24% | Gais 25%, with Djurgardens IF to win its most likely call at 51%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 55%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 78% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 56% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.