Djurgardens IF 8-2 Sirius – Result & Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson rates Djurgardens IF at 45% — the H2H record provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Djurgardens IF vs Sirius encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Sirius make the trip to 3Arena to face Djurgardens IF in Allsvenskan, Regular Season - 25. The match kicks off on Monday 29 September 2025 at 18:00 UTC.
Form
Djurgardens IF (all games): 5W 4D 1L across 10 Allsvenskan fixtures this term — 1.90 PPG. Last five: D W W D W. Offensively they are averaging 1.80 goals per game, with 0.70 conceded. Defensively, conceding just 0.70 per game is an exceptional defensive record — one of the tightest in the division. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches. This season is still relatively young for Djurgardens IF, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Djurgardens IF's home record at 3Arena: 4W 5D 1L from 10 Allsvenskan appearances (1.70 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.60 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Sirius have collected 1.30 PPG across 10 Allsvenskan outings this season: 4W 1D 5L. Last five: W W L W L. They are scoring at 1.60 per game and conceding 1.40. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Sirius, so this record blends games from this season and last.
On the road, Sirius have gone 2W 2D 6L from 10 away fixtures this term (0.80 PPG). Away from home they average 1.70 goals scored and 2.10 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 90% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture. Their away PPG of 0.80 is notably below their overall 1.30 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
The form ledger tips toward Djurgardens IF. A 0.60 PPG lead over Sirius (1.90 vs 1.30) is a consistent enough margin to carry weight. If the win odds appear compressed, Draw No Bet offers draw insurance at a lower cost than a full switch to Double Chance.
The BTTS picture is exceptionally clear (using home/away splits) — Djurgardens IF register both teams scoring in 70% of relevant games, Sirius in 90%. Both sides above 70% makes BTTS Yes one of the strongest standalone angles in this fixture.
H2H History
The head-to-head record favours Djurgardens IF, who have won 5 of the last 8 meetings against Sirius — a 1D 2W return for the visitors.
The 8 previous meetings have averaged 2.0 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 5 Apr 2025, ended 1–0 with Djurgardens IF winning.
The historical record gives Djurgardens IF a meaningful edge here — 5 wins from 8 meetings is the kind of ledger that should not be discounted when the form picture is inconclusive. Even away from home, the visitors have struggled to impose themselves in this fixture.
Trading Data
Djurgardens IF goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (54 games, 27 at home): they score before half-time in 74% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 88% of the time; BTTS occurs in 52% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 30% of games (home games).
Sirius goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (54 games, 27 at away): they score before half-time in 59% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 95% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 63% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 74% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 63% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 35%.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Djurgardens IF 44% versus Sirius 65%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Djurgardens IF 39% | Sirius 63%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Djurgardens IF 1.79 xG and Sirius 1.47 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Djurgardens IF attack 1.077 / defence 0.935 | Sirius attack 1.176 / defence 1.191. League average goals — home 1.397 / away 1.341. Data: 54 Djurgardens IF games / 54 Sirius games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Djurgardens IF 45% | Draw 23% | Sirius 32%. Fair-value odds: Djurgardens IF 2.22 | Draw 4.35 | Sirius 3.12. Djurgardens IF hold a narrow Poisson edge at 45% — the draw (23%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 63% | BTTS probability 64% | Total xG 3.27. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 63% — the 3.27 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 64% reflects that both xG figures (1.79 / 1.47) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates Djurgardens IF as the most likely outcome at 45% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 23% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Djurgardens IF if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 32% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 3.27 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 63% — reasonable confidence, supported by form averaging 3.2 goals per game.
Poisson assigns a 64% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Djurgardens IF 70% | Sirius 90% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 32% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
🔮 Your Prediction
Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.
💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Djurgardens IF vs Sirius | Competition: Allsvenskan, Regular Season - 25 | Venue: 3Arena • Kick-off: Monday 29 Sep 2025, 18:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Djurgardens IF 45% | Draw 23% | Sirius 32% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 63% | BTTS 64% | xG Djurgardens IF 1.79 / Sirius 1.47 • Poisson strength factors: Djurgardens IF attack 1.077 / def 0.935 | Sirius attack 1.176 / def 1.191 | league avg home 1.397 / away 1.341 • Poisson stance: Djurgardens IF (45%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.79
Djurgardens IF xG
Expected Goals
1.47
Sirius xG
64%
BTTS
84%
Over 1.5
63%
Over 2.5
41%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Djurgardens IF vs Sirius kick off?
Djurgardens IF vs Sirius kicked off at 18:00 on Monday 29 September 2025 at 3Arena.
What was the final score in Djurgardens IF vs Sirius?
Djurgardens IF 8 - 2 Sirius.
Where is Djurgardens IF vs Sirius being played?
The match is being played at 3Arena.
What competition is Djurgardens IF vs Sirius part of?
Djurgardens IF vs Sirius is a Regular Season - 25 fixture in the Allsvenskan (Sweden).
Who is favourite to win Djurgardens IF vs Sirius?
Our statistical model gives Djurgardens IF a 45% chance of winning, Sirius a 32% chance, and a 23% chance of a draw — making Djurgardens IF the favourite.
Will both teams score in Djurgardens IF vs Sirius?
Our model estimates a 64% probability that both Djurgardens IF and Sirius will score (BTTS).
Will Djurgardens IF vs Sirius have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 63%.
What is the head-to-head record between Djurgardens IF and Sirius?
Record (8 meetings): Djurgardens IF 5W | Draws 1 | Sirius 2W.
What form are Djurgardens IF and Sirius in?
Djurgardens IF (all comps): 5W-4D-1L in 10 | 1.90 PPG | GF 1.80 / GA 0.70 | L5 D-W-W-D-W. Sirius (all comps): 4W-1D-5L in 10 | 1.30 PPG | GF 1.60 / GA 1.40 | L5 W-W-L-W-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Working from Djurgardens IF's attack rating (1.08) and Sirius's defence rating (1.19), the model arrives at 1.79 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Sirius's attack (1.18x) against Djurgardens IF's defence (0.94x) — and the away total comes out at 1.47.
These ratings are built from 54/54 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 11.4%. Close behind: 2-1 (9.0%), 1-2 (7.4%). Together the top three scorelines make up 28% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Djurgardens IF Win
45%
2.21
23%
4.37
32%
3.14
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
10.1%
Draw
Most likely
2 – 1
9.0%
Home win
1 – 2
7.4%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.79
Djurgardens IF xG
Total xG
3.27
1.47
Sirius xG
2.21
45%
Home win
4.37
23%
Draw
3.14
32%
Away win
Goals Markets
84%
Over 1.5
1.19
16%
Under 1.5
6.25
63%
Over 2.5
1.59
37%
Under 2.5
2.70
41%
Over 3.5
2.44
59%
Under 3.5
1.69
23%
Over 4.5
4.35
77%
Under 4.5
1.30
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
64%
BTTS Yes
1.56
36%
BTTS No
2.80
Clean Sheet
23%
4.36
17%
6.00
Win to Nil
10%
9.63
5%
18.84
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 3.8 | 5.6 | 4.1 | 2.0 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 6.8 | 10.1 | 7.4 | 3.6 | 1.3 | 0.4 |
| 2 | 6.1 | 9.0 | 6.7 | 3.3 | 1.2 | 0.4 |
| 3 | 3.7 | 5.4 | 4.0 | 2.0 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 1.6 | 2.4 | 1.8 | 0.9 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.6 | 0.9 | 0.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Djurgardens IF vs Sirius?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 11.4%.
How many goals are Djurgardens IF and Sirius expected to score?
The model projects 1.79 expected goals for Djurgardens IF and 1.47 for Sirius, a combined total of 3.27.
How confident is the prediction model for Djurgardens IF vs Sirius?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 45%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Djurgardens IF come into this having played 54 games, going 26W 13D 15L for 1.69 points per game. Their last five reads D-W-W-D-W. The sample for Djurgardens IF is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Sirius sit at 1.24 PPG from 54 outings (19W 10D 25L), a run that reads W-W-L-W-L across their last five. The sample for Sirius is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Djurgardens IF carry the stronger recent form of the two, 0.45 PPG clear of Sirius — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
Home & Away Splits
Djurgardens IF's home form reads 12W 10D 5L across 27 games on their own ground, a 1.70 PPG return.
Away from home, Sirius have taken 1.19 points per game from 27 outings (9W 5D 13L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Djurgardens IF come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Djurgardens IF are averaging 1.43 goals scored and 1.07 conceded per game recently; Sirius are on 1.54 scored and 1.57 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Sirius in 65%.
Last 54 Results — Allsvenskan
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Djurgardens IF
Blended
Sirius
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Djurgardens IF and Sirius in coming into this match?
Djurgardens IF have gone 26W 13D 15L in their last 54 games (1.69 PPG), while Sirius have gone 19W 10D 25L in their last 54 (1.24 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Djurgardens IF at home or Sirius away?
Djurgardens IF's home record (1.70 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Djurgardens IF at home: 1.70 PPG; Sirius away: 1.19 PPG.
Have Djurgardens IF or Sirius been keeping clean sheets recently?
Djurgardens IF have kept a clean sheet in 31% of their recent games, Sirius in 13%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 10 times since August 2021 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Allsvenskan. They last met on 18 May 2026, roughly 3 months ago.
Records & Recent Trends
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Djurgardens IF won 8-2 on 29 Sep 2025, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Djurgardens IF have gone 3W 0D 2L from 5 meetings on their own ground against Sirius — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
6
Djurgardens IF
1
Draws
3
Sirius
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Djurgardens IF and Sirius?
From 10 meetings on record, Djurgardens IF have won 6, Sirius have won 3, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Djurgardens IF and Sirius last play each other?
They last met on 18 May 2026, when Djurgardens IF 2-3 Sirius.
Who has won more matches between Djurgardens IF and Sirius?
Djurgardens IF have the better head-to-head record, with 6 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Djurgardens IF are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 74% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 37% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 11% of those situations.
Sirius see a goal before the break in 59% of their matches.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Djurgardens IF 52%, Sirius 74% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 30% (Djurgardens IF) and 63% (Sirius).
On the defensive side: Djurgardens IF keep a clean sheet in 33% of their matches.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Djurgardens IF home games / Sirius away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Djurgardens IF play Sirius?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 52% of Djurgardens IF's games and 74% of Sirius's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Djurgardens IF vs Sirius usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 30% of Djurgardens IF's recent games and 63% of Sirius's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Djurgardens IF and Sirius tend to score early?
Djurgardens IF have had a goal before half-time in 74% of their recent matches, Sirius in 59% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant Djurgardens IF run riot with a 8-2 hammering of Sirius.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Djurgardens IF beat Sirius 8-2 at 3Arena, Regular Season - 25, in the Allsvenskan. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Djurgardens IF 1.79 xG and Sirius 1.47 xG, a combined 3.27. The scoreboard read 8-2 for 10 actual goals. Djurgardens IF beat their projection by 6.2 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Djurgardens IF attack 1.08 / defence 0.94 against Sirius attack 1.18 / defence 1.19, drawn from 54/54 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Djurgardens IF 45% | Draw 23% | Sirius 32%, with Djurgardens IF to win its most likely call at 45%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 63%. The game delivered 10, so it went over — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 84% and landed. Over 3.5 was 41% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 64% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 51% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Djurgardens IF 39%, Sirius 63%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 55%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Djurgardens IF's trading profile (54 games, 27 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 44% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 32% of the time, and conceded here.
Sirius's trading profile (54 games, 27 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 65% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, Djurgardens IF arrived the stronger side — 1.69 PPG against 1.24. Form held, and they took the win. Djurgardens IF (home/away splits) scored 8 against a 1.37 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 2 against a 1.00 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Sirius (home/away splits) shipped 8 against a 1.74 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 4 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (hit). A strong night for the model: the result sat comfortably inside what the pre-match data projected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.