Degerfors IF 1-2 Mjallby AIF – Result & Analysis

Poisson rates Mjallby AIF at 49% — the H2H record provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Degerfors IF vs Mjallby AIF encounter.

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Pre-Match Analysis

Degerfors IF and Mjallby AIF meet at Stora Valla in Allsvenskan, Regular Season - 30. This fixture gets under way on Sunday 12 November 2023 at 14:00 UTC.

Current Form

Degerfors IF's overall Allsvenskan record this term: 1W 3D 6L from 10 games (0.60 PPG). Last five: L D L D D. They are averaging 1.00 goals per game and conceding 1.90 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.

At home at Stora Valla, Degerfors IF have gone 3W 2D 5L this season (10 games, 1.10 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.10 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture. Their home PPG of 1.10 is noticeably stronger than their overall 0.60 — Degerfors IF are significantly better at Stora Valla than their overall form suggests.

Mjallby AIF have collected 1.00 PPG across 10 Allsvenskan outings this season: 3W 1D 6L. Last five: L L D W L. Their scoring rate of 1.00 per game is modest, conceding 1.40 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation.

On the road, Mjallby AIF have gone 6W 1D 3L from 10 away fixtures this term (1.90 PPG). Away from home they average 1.40 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game. 4 clean sheets from 10 away games (40%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel. Their away PPG of 1.90 exceeds their overall 1.00 — they actually perform better on the road than their aggregate form implies.

Neither side holds a meaningful form edge. The 0.60 vs 1.00 PPG split is negligible — model and market signals should carry more analytical weight for this one.

H2H History

Across the last 5 meetings, Mjallby AIF have the stronger historical record — 4 wins to Degerfors IF's 0, with 1 draws in the mix.

Historically, goals have been at a premium in this fixture — just 1.6 per game from 5 meetings. The Under 2.5 has a clear base rate from the H2H record alone. The most recent clash, on 16 Apr 2023, ended 0–2 with Mjallby AIF winning.

It is worth noting that Mjallby AIF have a superior record in this fixture despite their visitor status — 4 wins from 5 meetings. Home advantage alone is not a sufficient reason to dismiss that track record.

Trading Data

Degerfors IF goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (59 games, 29 at home): they score before half-time in 76% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 69% of the time; BTTS occurs in 59% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 55% of games (home games); they fail to score in 34% of games.

Mjallby AIF goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (59 games, 29 at away): they score before half-time in 59% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 83% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 52% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 24% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 24% of games (away games); they fail to score in 32% of games.

BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Degerfors IF 59% versus Mjallby AIF 42%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Degerfors IF 56% | Mjallby AIF 37%).

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects Degerfors IF 0.96 xG and Mjallby AIF 1.46 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Degerfors IF attack 0.829 / defence 1.173 | Mjallby AIF attack 0.970 / defence 0.773. League average goals — home 1.493 / away 1.284. Mjallby AIF's defence strength of 0.773 is below average — they are conceding at a rate that inflates the home xG figure. Data: 59 Degerfors IF games / 59 Mjallby AIF games used (CurrentSeason).

Result probabilities: Degerfors IF 25% | Draw 26% | Mjallby AIF 49%. Fair-value odds: Degerfors IF 4.00 | Draw 3.85 | Mjallby AIF 2.04. Mjallby AIF hold a narrow Poisson edge at 49% — the draw (26%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 43% | BTTS probability 47% | Total xG 2.42. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 57% — total xG of 2.42 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 47% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.

Final Verdict

Poisson rates Mjallby AIF as the most likely outcome at 49% — moderate model lean. Draw probability of 26% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Mjallby AIF if the outright odds are short.

The Poisson model projects 2.42 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 43% — reasonable confidence, supported by H2H averaging 1.6 goals per meeting.

Poisson assigns a 47% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Degerfors IF 60% | Mjallby AIF 30% BTTS from recent games.

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