BK Hacken 0-1 Mjallby AIF – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates BK Hacken at 44% — the H2H record provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this BK Hacken vs Mjallby AIF encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Allsvenskan clash, Regular Season - 1 as BK Hacken welcome Mjallby AIF to Bravida Arena. Kick-off is set for Sunday 31 March 2024 at 15:30 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Allsvenskan games this season, BK Hacken have gone 4W 1D 5L from 10 outings — a 1.30 PPG return. Last five: D W L W L. Offensively they are averaging 1.90 goals per game, with 1.70 conceded. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
In front of their own supporters this season, BK Hacken have posted 10W 0D 0L at Bravida Arena — 3.00 PPG. They are averaging 3.20 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture. Their home PPG of 3.00 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.30 — BK Hacken are significantly better at Bravida Arena than their overall form suggests.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Mjallby AIF stand at 4W 1D 5L from 10 Allsvenskan matches — 1.30 PPG. Last five: L D W L W. Their scoring rate of 1.20 per game is modest, conceding 1.30 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation.
Mjallby AIF away from home this season: 6W 1D 3L from 10 away games — 1.90 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.50 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game. Their away PPG of 1.90 exceeds their overall 1.30 — they actually perform better on the road than their aggregate form implies.
There is minimal separation in the form figures — BK Hacken at 1.30 PPG versus Mjallby AIF's 1.30. The form guide is not providing a strong directional steer; the model and market data will carry more weight in the final assessment.
Head to Head
There is little to separate the sides historically. From 5 previous meetings, BK Hacken have won 3, Mjallby AIF 1, with 1 draws — a balanced ledger that offers no obvious directional steer on its own.
The 5 previous meetings have averaged 2.0 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 29 Oct 2023, ended 1–2 with Mjallby AIF winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
In-Play Profile
BK Hacken in-play tendencies (60 games, 30 at home): they score before half-time in 93% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 54% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 80% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 80% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 50%.
Mjallby AIF in-play tendencies (60 games, 30 at away): they score before half-time in 57% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 83% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 54% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 27% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 27% of games (away games); they fail to score in 32% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — BK Hacken 73% versus Mjallby AIF 43%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (BK Hacken 68% | Mjallby AIF 38%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects BK Hacken 1.71 xG and Mjallby AIF 1.42 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: BK Hacken attack 1.229 / defence 0.953 | Mjallby AIF attack 0.973 / defence 0.923. League average goals — home 1.505 / away 1.534. Data: 30 BK Hacken games / 30 Mjallby AIF games used (PrevSeason). Note: current-season sample is too small — prior-season data is carrying the calculation. Model confidence is reduced; treat probabilities as directional rather than precise.
Result probabilities: BK Hacken 44% | Draw 23% | Mjallby AIF 32%. Fair-value odds: BK Hacken 2.27 | Draw 4.35 | Mjallby AIF 3.12. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 23% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 61% | BTTS probability 62% | Total xG 3.13. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 61% — the 3.13 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 62% reflects that both xG figures (1.71 / 1.42) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates BK Hacken as the most likely outcome at 44% — marginal model lean. With a 23% draw probability, Draw No Bet on BK Hacken offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 32% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 3.13 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 61% — reasonable confidence, supported by form averaging 3.5 goals per game.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 62% on Yes. Form rates corroborate: BK Hacken 70% | Mjallby AIF 40% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 32% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects. The Poisson model is drawing on PrevSeason data (30 games minimum) — early-season projections carry additional uncertainty. Weight the live form and odds signals accordingly.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: BK Hacken vs Mjallby AIF | Competition: Allsvenskan, Regular Season - 1 | Venue: Bravida Arena • Kick-off: Sunday 31 Mar 2024, 15:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: BK Hacken 44% | Draw 23% | Mjallby AIF 32% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 61% | BTTS 62% | xG BK Hacken 1.71 / Mjallby AIF 1.42 • Poisson strength factors: BK Hacken attack 1.229 / def 0.953 | Mjallby AIF attack 0.973 / def 0.923 | league avg home 1.505 / away 1.534 • Poisson stance: BK Hacken (44%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.71
BK Hacken xG
Expected Goals
1.42
Mjallby AIF xG
62%
BTTS
82%
Over 1.5
61%
Over 2.5
38%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does BK Hacken vs Mjallby AIF kick off?
BK Hacken vs Mjallby AIF kicked off at 15:30 on Sunday 31 March 2024 at Bravida Arena.
What was the final score in BK Hacken vs Mjallby AIF?
BK Hacken 0 - 1 Mjallby AIF.
Where is BK Hacken vs Mjallby AIF being played?
The match is being played at Bravida Arena.
What competition is BK Hacken vs Mjallby AIF part of?
BK Hacken vs Mjallby AIF is a Regular Season - 1 fixture in the Allsvenskan (Sweden).
Who is favourite to win BK Hacken vs Mjallby AIF?
Our statistical model gives BK Hacken a 44% chance of winning, Mjallby AIF a 32% chance, and a 23% chance of a draw — making BK Hacken the favourite.
Will both teams score in BK Hacken vs Mjallby AIF?
Our model estimates a 62% probability that both BK Hacken and Mjallby AIF will score (BTTS).
Will BK Hacken vs Mjallby AIF have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 61%.
What is the head-to-head record between BK Hacken and Mjallby AIF?
Record (5 meetings): BK Hacken 3W | Draws 1 | Mjallby AIF 1W.
What form are BK Hacken and Mjallby AIF in?
BK Hacken (all comps): 4W-1D-5L in 10 | 1.30 PPG | GF 1.90 / GA 1.70 | L5 D-W-L-W-L. Mjallby AIF (all comps): 4W-1D-5L in 10 | 1.30 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 1.30 | L5 L-D-W-L-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Working from BK Hacken's attack rating (1.23) and Mjallby AIF's defence rating (0.92), the model arrives at 1.71 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Mjallby AIF's attack versus BK Hacken's defence, projects 1.42 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 30/30 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 12.0%. Close behind: 2-1 (9.1%), 1-2 (7.6%). Together the top three scorelines make up 29% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
BK Hacken Win
44%
2.25
23%
4.26
32%
3.11
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
10.6%
Draw
Most likely
2 – 1
9.1%
Home win
1 – 2
7.6%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.71
BK Hacken xG
Total xG
3.13
1.42
Mjallby AIF xG
2.25
44%
Home win
4.26
23%
Draw
3.11
32%
Away win
Goals Markets
82%
Over 1.5
1.22
18%
Under 1.5
5.56
61%
Over 2.5
1.64
39%
Under 2.5
2.56
38%
Over 3.5
2.63
62%
Under 3.5
1.61
21%
Over 4.5
4.76
79%
Under 4.5
1.27
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
62%
BTTS Yes
1.61
38%
BTTS No
2.64
Clean Sheet
24%
4.15
18%
5.51
Win to Nil
11%
9.35
6%
17.14
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.4 | 6.2 | 4.4 | 2.1 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 7.5 | 10.6 | 7.6 | 3.6 | 1.3 | 0.4 |
| 2 | 6.4 | 9.1 | 6.4 | 3.1 | 1.1 | 0.3 |
| 3 | 3.6 | 5.2 | 3.7 | 1.7 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 1.5 | 2.2 | 1.6 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.5 | 0.8 | 0.5 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for BK Hacken vs Mjallby AIF?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.0%.
How many goals are BK Hacken and Mjallby AIF expected to score?
The model projects 1.71 expected goals for BK Hacken and 1.42 for Mjallby AIF, a combined total of 3.13.
How confident is the prediction model for BK Hacken vs Mjallby AIF?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 44%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
BK Hacken come into this having played 60 games, going 36W 13D 11L for 2.02 points per game. Their last five reads D-W-L-W-L.
On the other side, Mjallby AIF sit at 1.40 PPG from 60 outings (23W 15D 22L), a run that reads L-D-W-L-W across their last five.
BK Hacken carry the stronger recent form of the two, 0.62 PPG clear of Mjallby AIF — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
Home Ground vs the Road
BK Hacken's home form reads 23W 4D 3L across 30 games on their own ground, a 2.43 PPG return. That's noticeably better than their 2.02 PPG overall — BK Hacken are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
Away from home, Mjallby AIF have taken 1.60 points per game from 30 outings (14W 6D 10L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, BK Hacken come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
BK Hacken are averaging 2.30 goals scored and 1.27 conceded per game recently; Mjallby AIF are on 1.08 scored and 1.12 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: BK Hacken have seen both teams score in 73% of their recent games.
Last 60 Results — Allsvenskan
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
BK Hacken
Current Season
Mjallby AIF
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are BK Hacken and Mjallby AIF in coming into this match?
BK Hacken have gone 36W 13D 11L in their last 60 games (2.02 PPG), while Mjallby AIF have gone 23W 15D 22L in their last 60 (1.40 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — BK Hacken at home or Mjallby AIF away?
BK Hacken's home record (2.43 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — BK Hacken at home: 2.43 PPG; Mjallby AIF away: 1.60 PPG.
Have BK Hacken or Mjallby AIF been keeping clean sheets recently?
BK Hacken have kept a clean sheet in 17% of their recent games, Mjallby AIF in 32%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between BK Hacken and Mjallby AIF runs to 10 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to September 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Allsvenskan. The two were last together as recently as 17 May 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Digging Into the Numbers
The biggest gap between the sides came on 11 Jun 2023, when BK Hacken won 3-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
BK Hacken's record when hosting Mjallby AIF specifically: 2W 1D 2L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
4
BK Hacken
1
Draws
5
Mjallby AIF
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between BK Hacken and Mjallby AIF?
From 10 meetings on record, BK Hacken have won 4, Mjallby AIF have won 5, and 1 have been drawn.
When did BK Hacken and Mjallby AIF last play each other?
They last met on 17 May 2026, when Mjallby AIF 0-1 BK Hacken.
Who has won more matches between BK Hacken and Mjallby AIF?
Mjallby AIF have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
BK Hacken are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 93% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 53% of the time.
Mjallby AIF see a goal before the break in 57% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 27% of the time.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — BK Hacken 80%, Mjallby AIF 27% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 80% (BK Hacken) and 27% (Mjallby AIF).
On the defensive side: Mjallby AIF in 43%; Mjallby AIF in 40%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = BK Hacken home games / Mjallby AIF away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when BK Hacken play Mjallby AIF?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 80% of BK Hacken's recent matches and 27% of Mjallby AIF's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is BK Hacken vs Mjallby AIF usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 80% of BK Hacken's recent games and 27% of Mjallby AIF's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do BK Hacken and Mjallby AIF tend to score early?
BK Hacken have had a goal before half-time in 93% of their recent matches, Mjallby AIF in 57% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as Mjallby AIF defy the odds to beat BK Hacken 0-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Mjallby AIF beat BK Hacken 0-1 at Bravida Arena, Regular Season - 1, in the Allsvenskan. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting BK Hacken 1.71 xG and Mjallby AIF 1.42 xG, a combined 3.13. The scoreboard read 0-1 for 1 actual goal. BK Hacken fell 1.7 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of BK Hacken attack 1.23 / defence 0.95 against Mjallby AIF attack 0.97 / defence 0.92, drawn from 30/30 games (PrevSeason).
On the result, the model split it BK Hacken 44% | Draw 23% | Mjallby AIF 32%, with BK Hacken to win its most likely call at 44%. The actual Mjallby AIF win had been the model's second-ranked read at 32%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 61%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 82% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 62% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 53% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (BK Hacken 68%, Mjallby AIF 38%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 58%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
BK Hacken's trading profile (60 games, 30 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 73% of their matches — today it did not.
Mjallby AIF's trading profile (60 games, 30 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 43% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 32% of the time, and duly kept one.
Form vs Result
On form, BK Hacken arrived the stronger side — 2.02 PPG against 1.40. Form was overturned, with Mjallby AIF winning despite arriving in poorer recent shape. BK Hacken (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 2.90 scoring average — below par going forward. Mjallby AIF (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 0.93 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.