Valladolid 1-1 Athletic Club – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Athletic Club at 48% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Valladolid vs Athletic Club encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a La Liga clash, Regular Season - 13 as Valladolid welcome Athletic Club to Estadio Municipal José Zorrilla. Kick-off is set for Sunday 10 November 2024 at 17:30 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Valladolid stand at 1W 2D 7L from 10 La Liga matches — 0.50 PPG. Last five: L L W L L. They are averaging 0.80 goals per game and conceding 2.10 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. However, 2.10 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Valladolid, so this record blends games from this season and last.
In front of their own supporters this season, Valladolid have posted 1W 2D 3L at Estadio Municipal José Zorrilla — 0.83 PPG. At home they are averaging 0.67 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game. 3 clean sheets from 6 home games (50%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Estadio Municipal José Zorrilla.
Across all La Liga games this season, Athletic Club have recorded 5W 3D 2L from 10 outings — 1.80 PPG. Last five: D L W D D. They are scoring at 1.60 per game and conceding 0.90. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Athletic Club, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Athletic Club's form when playing away from home: 4W 1D 5L across 10 road games this term (1.30 PPG). Away from home they average 1.20 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game. 4 clean sheets from 10 away games (40%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road. Their away PPG of 1.30 is notably below their overall 1.80 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
Form points away from home here. Athletic Club's 1.80 PPG return is 1.30 points per game ahead of Valladolid's 0.50 — the visitors are the form-based selection, and Double Chance is an alternative worth pricing if the outright looks tight.
H2H
The rivalry is an even one: 0 wins apiece for Valladolid, 2 for Athletic Club and 0 shared spoils from 2 past contests. Neither side holds a meaningful historical edge.
The 2 previous encounters between these sides have been high-scoring affairs — 3.5 goals per contest on average. Historical precedent backs the Over 2.5 goals market. The most recent clash, on 17 Mar 2023, ended 1–3 with Athletic Club winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.5 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
In-Play Profile
Valladolid in-play tendencies (12 games, 5 at home): they score before half-time in 20% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 60% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 60% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 60% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 60% of games (home games); they fail to score in 42% of games.
Athletic Club in-play tendencies (12 games, 5 at away): they score before half-time in 60% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; they lead at the break 50% of the time; BTTS occurs in 60% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 60% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Valladolid 50% versus Athletic Club 67%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Valladolid 67% | Athletic Club 42%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Valladolid 0.85 xG and Athletic Club 1.36 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Valladolid attack 0.688 / defence 1.158 | Athletic Club attack 1.089 / defence 0.870. League average goals — home 1.422 / away 1.079. Valladolid's attack strength of 0.688 is below the league average — the 0.85 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Data: 12 Valladolid games / 50 Athletic Club games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Valladolid 23% | Draw 29% | Athletic Club 48%. Fair-value odds: Valladolid 4.35 | Draw 3.45 | Athletic Club 2.08. Athletic Club hold a narrow Poisson edge at 48% — the draw (29%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 38% | BTTS probability 43% | Total xG 2.21. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 62% — total xG of 2.21 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 43% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Athletic Club are the pick at 48% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 29% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Athletic Club offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.21 combined xG gives a 38% probability to Under 2.5 — reasonable, supported by form averaging 2.1 goals per game.
Poisson assigns a 43% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates are neutral: Valladolid 50% | Athletic Club 50%.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Valladolid vs Athletic Club | Competition: La Liga, Regular Season - 13 | Venue: Estadio Municipal José Zorrilla • Kick-off: Sunday 10 Nov 2024, 17:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Valladolid 23% | Draw 29% | Athletic Club 48% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 38% | BTTS 43% | xG Valladolid 0.85 / Athletic Club 1.36 • Poisson strength factors: Valladolid attack 0.688 / def 1.158 | Athletic Club attack 1.089 / def 0.870 | league avg home 1.422 / away 1.079 • Poisson stance: Athletic Club (48%) — moderate lean
🎲 Betting Market Intelligence
• Odds data is not currently available for this fixture
🧮 Prediction Model
0.85
Valladolid xG
Expected Goals
1.36
Athletic Club xG
43%
BTTS
66%
Over 1.5
38%
Over 2.5
18%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Valladolid vs Athletic Club kick off?
Valladolid vs Athletic Club kicked off at 17:30 on Sunday 10 November 2024 at Estadio Municipal José Zorrilla.
What was the final score in Valladolid vs Athletic Club?
Valladolid 1 - 1 Athletic Club.
Where is Valladolid vs Athletic Club being played?
The match is being played at Estadio Municipal José Zorrilla.
What competition is Valladolid vs Athletic Club part of?
Valladolid vs Athletic Club is a Regular Season - 13 fixture in the La Liga (Spain).
Who is favourite to win Valladolid vs Athletic Club?
Our statistical model gives Valladolid a 23% chance of winning, Athletic Club a 48% chance, and a 29% chance of a draw — making Athletic Club the favourite.
Will both teams score in Valladolid vs Athletic Club?
Our model estimates a 43% probability that both Valladolid and Athletic Club will score (BTTS).
Will Valladolid vs Athletic Club have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 38%.
What is the head-to-head record between Valladolid and Athletic Club?
Record (2 meetings): Valladolid 0W | Draws 0 | Athletic Club 2W.
What form are Valladolid and Athletic Club in?
Valladolid (all comps): 1W-2D-7L in 10 | 0.50 PPG | GF 0.80 / GA 2.10 | L5 L-L-W-L-L. Athletic Club (all comps): 5W-3D-2L in 10 | 1.80 PPG | GF 1.60 / GA 0.90 | L5 D-L-W-D-D.
What do the betting odds say about Valladolid vs Athletic Club?
Odds data is not currently available for this fixture.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Working from Valladolid's attack rating (0.69) and Athletic Club's defence rating (0.87), the model arrives at 0.85 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Athletic Club's attack versus Valladolid's defence, projects 1.36 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 12/50 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 14.3%. Close behind: 0-1 (13.2%), 0-0 (12.6%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 40% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Athletic Club Win
23%
4.41
29%
3.41
48%
2.08
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 1
14.9%
Away win
Most likely
1 – 1
12.7%
Draw
0 – 0
10.9%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.85
Valladolid xG
Total xG
2.21
1.36
Athletic Club xG
4.41
23%
Home win
3.41
29%
Draw
2.08
48%
Away win
Goals Markets
65%
Over 1.5
1.54
35%
Under 1.5
2.86
38%
Over 2.5
2.63
62%
Under 2.5
1.61
18%
Over 3.5
5.56
82%
Under 3.5
1.22
7%
Over 4.5
14.29
93%
Under 4.5
1.08
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
43%
BTTS Yes
2.30
57%
BTTS No
1.77
Clean Sheet
26%
3.90
43%
2.34
Win to Nil
6%
17.21
20%
4.88
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 10.9 | 14.9 | 10.1 | 4.6 | 1.6 | 0.4 |
| 1 | 9.3 | 12.7 | 8.6 | 3.9 | 1.3 | 0.4 |
| 2 | 4.0 | 5.4 | 3.7 | 1.7 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 1.1 | 1.5 | 1.0 | 0.5 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 0.2 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | – | 0.1 | – | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Valladolid vs Athletic Club?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.3%.
How many goals are Valladolid and Athletic Club expected to score?
The model projects 0.85 expected goals for Valladolid and 1.36 for Athletic Club, a combined total of 2.21.
How confident is the prediction model for Valladolid vs Athletic Club?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 48%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Across their last 12 outings, Valladolid have picked up 0.67 PPG on a 2W 2D 8L record — L-L-W-L-L across the most recent five. The sample for Valladolid is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Athletic Club's form line: 5W 4D 3L from 12 games, 1.58 PPG, last five D-L-W-D-D. The sample for Athletic Club is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Put side by side, Athletic Club are the form team by 0.91 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Valladolid.
Venue Form
On home soil, Valladolid have posted 0.40 PPG from 5 outings (0W 2D 3L).
On the road, Athletic Club have gone 2W 1D 2L from 5 away games — 1.40 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Athletic Club come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Valladolid are averaging 0.75 goals scored and 2.00 conceded per game recently; Athletic Club are on 1.50 scored and 1.00 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Athletic Club in 67%.
Last 12 Results — La Liga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Valladolid
Blended
Athletic Club
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Valladolid and Athletic Club in coming into this match?
Valladolid have gone 2W 2D 8L in their last 12 games (0.67 PPG), while Athletic Club have gone 5W 4D 3L in their last 12 (1.58 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Valladolid at home or Athletic Club away?
Athletic Club's away record (1.40 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Valladolid at home: 0.40 PPG; Athletic Club away: 1.40 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
4 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to November 2022. Every recorded meeting has come in La Liga. It has been a while since the last meeting — 23 February 2025, some 2 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Streaks & Records
The biggest gap between the sides came on 23 Feb 2025, when Athletic Club won 7-1 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Valladolid's record when hosting Athletic Club specifically: 0W 1D 1L from 2 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 4 Meetings
0
Valladolid
1
Draws
3
Athletic Club
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Valladolid and Athletic Club?
From 4 meetings on record, Valladolid have won 0, Athletic Club have won 3, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Valladolid and Athletic Club last play each other?
They last met on 23 February 2025, when Athletic Club 7-1 Valladolid.
Who has won more matches between Valladolid and Athletic Club?
Athletic Club have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 4 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Valladolid tend to start slowly — only 20% of their games have a goal by half-time.
Athletic Club are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 60% of their matches.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Valladolid 60%, Athletic Club 60% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 60% for Valladolid and 60% for Athletic Club. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 0% and 20% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Valladolid keep a clean sheet in 40% of their matches; Athletic Club in 40%; Valladolid have failed to score in 40% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Valladolid home games / Athletic Club away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Valladolid play Athletic Club?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 60% of Valladolid's games and 60% of Athletic Club's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Valladolid vs Athletic Club usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 60% of Valladolid's matches and 60% of Athletic Club's.
Do Valladolid and Athletic Club tend to score early?
Valladolid have had a goal before half-time in 20% of their recent matches, Athletic Club in 60% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Valladolid and Athletic Club share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at Estadio Municipal José Zorrilla, Regular Season - 13, as Valladolid and Athletic Club drew 1-1 in the La Liga. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Valladolid 0.85 xG and Athletic Club 1.36 xG, a combined 2.21. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Valladolid attack 0.69 / defence 1.16 against Athletic Club attack 1.09 / defence 0.87, drawn from 12/50 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Valladolid 23% | Draw 29% | Athletic Club 48%, with Athletic Club to win its most likely call at 48%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 29%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 38%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 66% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 43% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 54% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Valladolid 67%, Athletic Club 42%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 58%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Valladolid's trading profile (12 games, 5 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did.
Athletic Club's trading profile (12 games, 5 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 67% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, Athletic Club arrived the stronger side — 1.58 PPG against 0.67. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss), form (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.