Sevilla 0-2 Girona – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Sevilla at 45%, yet in-form Girona provide a compelling counter-argument — this Sevilla vs Girona fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
Girona travel to Estadio Ramón Sánchez Pizjuán to take on Sevilla in La Liga (matchday 4). The game is scheduled for Sunday 1 September 2024 at 19:00 UK time.
Form Guide
Sevilla — last 10 games: 2W 3D 5L, averaging 0.90 points per game. Last five: L L D L D. They are averaging 1.20 goals per game and conceding 1.40 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings (20%). Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
Sevilla's home record over their last 10 home games: 4W 1D 5L (1.30 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.50 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Looking at their last 10 matches, Girona stand at 6W 2D 2L — 2.00 PPG. Last five: W W D L W. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.70 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings (30%).
Girona's away record over their last 10 away games: 2W 2D 6L (0.80 PPG). Away from home they average 1.10 goals scored and 1.90 conceded per game. Their away PPG of 0.80 is notably below their overall 2.00 — form away from home has been a clear weakness recently.
Despite the home advantage, the form figures favour Girona — 1.10 PPG ahead of the hosts (2.00 vs 0.90). That gap is large enough to take seriously. Draw No Bet on the visitors neutralises home-ground risk while maintaining the form-backed selection.
Head to Head
Girona have tended to come out on top in this fixture, winning 4 of the 4 H2H matches we hold against 0 for Sevilla.
Goals have been a feature of this fixture — the 4 H2H matches in our data averaged 3.5 per game, which gives Over 2.5 a solid head-to-head foundation. The most recent of those, on 21 Jan 2024, ended Sevilla 1–5 Girona — a Girona win.
The H2H data backs the away side. Girona have won 4 of 4 H2H matches, and at 3.5 goals per game the goals market also points upward — the away win and Over 2.5 combination has a head-to-head case.
In-Play Data
Sevilla trading profile (last 41 games, 20 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 65% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 77% of the time; of the 11 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 27%; of the 12 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 42%; BTTS occurs in 70% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 60% of games (home games).
Girona trading profile (last 41 games, 20 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 85% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 80% of the time; of the 10 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 30%; BTTS occurs in 60% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 60% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 42%.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Sevilla 58% versus Girona 54%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Sevilla 51% | Girona 63%). There is an in-play dynamic worth noting: Sevilla surrender their half-time lead 27% of the time, while Girona have come from behind at the break to draw or win in 30% of cases — a combination that makes laying the hosts at HT a potential angle.
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Sevilla 1.54 xG and Girona 1.15 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Sevilla attack 0.953 / defence 1.146 | Girona attack 0.999 / defence 1.118. League average goals — home 1.445 / away 1.001. Data: built from Sevilla's last 41 games and Girona's last 41.
Result probabilities: Sevilla 45% | Draw 28% | Girona 27%. Fair-value odds: Sevilla 2.23 | Draw 3.52 | Girona 3.74. Sevilla hold a narrow Poisson edge at 45% — the draw (28%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 50% | BTTS Yes probability 55% | Total xG 2.69. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 50%/50% — the total xG of 2.69 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS Yes at 55% is only a slight lean — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Sevilla are the pick at 45% — moderate model lean. Note a divergence: in-form Girona (2.00 PPG) cuts against the Poisson lean — the model adjusts for opposition strength, which raw form results do not. With a 28% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Sevilla offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
Poisson projects 2.69 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 50% probability — strong conviction, supported by recent form (Sevilla's last 10 home games and Girona's last 10 away games) averaging 3.0 goals per game and the H2H data averaging 3.5 goals per game across 4 H2H matches.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 55%. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: Sevilla 70% (last 10 home games) | Girona 50% (last 10 away games).
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Sevilla vs Girona | Competition: La Liga, matchday 4 | Venue: Estadio Ramón Sánchez Pizjuán • Kick-off: Sunday 1 September 2024 at 19:00 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Sevilla 45% | Draw 28% | Girona 27% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 50% (Under 50%) | BTTS Yes 55% (No 45%) | xG Sevilla 1.54 / Girona 1.15 • Poisson strength factors: Sevilla attack 0.953 / def 1.146 | Girona attack 0.999 / def 1.118 | league avg home 1.445 / away 1.001 • Poisson stance: Sevilla (45%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.54
Sevilla xG
Expected Goals
1.15
Girona xG
55%
BTTS
76%
Over 1.5
50%
Over 2.5
28%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Sevilla vs Girona FAQs
What time does Sevilla vs Girona kick off?
Sevilla vs Girona kicked off at 19:00 UK time on Sunday 1 September 2024 at Estadio Ramón Sánchez Pizjuán.
What was the final score in Sevilla vs Girona?
Sevilla 0 - 2 Girona.
Where is Sevilla vs Girona being played?
The match is being played at Estadio Ramón Sánchez Pizjuán.
What competition is Sevilla vs Girona part of?
Sevilla vs Girona is a La Liga fixture (matchday 4) (Spain).
Who is favourite to win Sevilla vs Girona?
Our statistical model gives Sevilla a 45% chance of winning, Girona a 27% chance, and a 28% chance of a draw — making Sevilla the favourite.
Will both teams score in Sevilla vs Girona?
Our model estimates a 55% probability that both Sevilla and Girona will score, so it leans towards BTTS Yes.
Will Sevilla vs Girona have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 50% — effectively a coin flip.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Working from Sevilla's attack rating (0.95) and Girona's defence rating (1.12), the model arrives at 1.54 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Girona's attack versus Sevilla's defence, projects 1.15 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from Sevilla's last 41 games and Girona's last 41 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 13.6%. Close behind: 2-1 (9.3%), 1-0 (8.9%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 32% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Sevilla Win
45%
2.23
28%
3.52
27%
3.74
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.0%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
10.5%
Home win
2 – 1
9.3%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.54
Sevilla xG
Total xG
2.69
1.15
Girona xG
2.23
45%
Home win
3.52
28%
Draw
3.74
27%
Away win
Goals Markets
75%
Over 1.5
1.33
25%
Under 1.5
4.00
50%
Over 2.5
2.00
50%
Under 2.5
2.00
28%
Over 3.5
3.57
72%
Under 3.5
1.39
14%
Over 4.5
7.14
86%
Under 4.5
1.16
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
55%
BTTS Yes
1.81
45%
BTTS No
2.23
Clean Sheet
32%
3.15
21%
4.66
Win to Nil
14%
7.03
6%
17.43
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.8 | 7.8 | 4.5 | 1.7 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 10.5 | 12.0 | 6.9 | 2.6 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 8.1 | 9.3 | 5.3 | 2.0 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 4.1 | 4.8 | 2.7 | 1.0 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.6 | 1.8 | 1.0 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.5 | 0.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Sevilla vs Girona Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Sevilla vs Girona?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.6%.
How many goals are Sevilla and Girona expected to score?
The model projects 1.54 expected goals for Sevilla and 1.15 for Girona, a combined total of 2.69.
How confident is the prediction model for Sevilla vs Girona?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 45%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Across their last 41 outings, Sevilla have picked up 1.05 PPG on a 10W 13D 18L record — L-L-D-L-D across the most recent five.
Girona's form line: 26W 7D 8L from 41 games, 2.07 PPG, last five W-W-D-L-W.
Put side by side, Girona are the form team by 1.02 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Sevilla.
Venue Form
On home soil, Sevilla have posted 1.15 PPG from their last 20 home games (6W 5D 9L).
On the road, Girona have gone 10W 4D 6L from their last 20 away games — 1.70 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Girona come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Sevilla are averaging 1.24 goals scored and 1.41 conceded per game recently; Girona are on 2.20 scored and 1.22 conceded.
Last 41 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Sevilla
Early Season
Girona
Early Season
Sevilla (Home) vs Girona (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Sevilla
Early Season
Girona
Early Season
❓ Sevilla vs Girona Form FAQs
What form are Sevilla and Girona in coming into this match?
Sevilla have gone 10W 13D 18L in their last 41 games (1.05 PPG), while Girona have gone 26W 7D 8L in their last 41 (2.07 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Sevilla at home or Girona away?
Girona's away record (1.70 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Sevilla at home: 1.15 PPG; Girona away: 1.70 PPG.
Have Sevilla or Girona been keeping clean sheets recently?
Sevilla have kept a clean sheet in 22% of their recent games, Girona in 32%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
This section is based on the 8 H2H matches we hold for this pairing, spanning roughly 3 years from January 2023. All of them came in La Liga. The most recent was on 8 February 2026, roughly 9 months ago.
Streaks & Records
The biggest gap in our H2H data came on 21 Jan 2024, when Girona won Girona 5-1 Sevilla.
Sevilla's record when hosting Girona specifically: 0W 1D 3L from 4 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 8 Meetings
2
Sevilla
1
Draws
5
Girona
Recent Meetings
❓ Sevilla vs Girona H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Sevilla and Girona?
Across the 8 head-to-head matches in our data, Sevilla have won 2, Girona have won 5, and 1 has been drawn.
When did Sevilla and Girona last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 8 February 2026: Sevilla 1-1 Girona.
Who has won more matches between Sevilla and Girona?
Girona have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from the 8 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Sevilla are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 65% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 30% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 33% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 25% of those situations.
Girona are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 85% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 35% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 29% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 14% of those situations.
Full-Time Trends
Both teams scoring has been the norm for this pairing lately — Sevilla at 70%, Girona at 60%. That combined rate makes BTTS Yes a well-supported trading angle.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 60% for Sevilla and 60% for Girona. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 20% and 40% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Sevilla home games / Girona away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Sevilla vs Girona Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Sevilla and Girona matches?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 70% of Sevilla's games and 60% of Girona's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Are Sevilla and Girona matches usually high-scoring?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 60% of Sevilla's matches and 60% of Girona's.
Do Sevilla and Girona matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 65% of Sevilla's recent matches and 85% of Girona's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Girona cruise to a comfortable 0-2 victory over Sevilla.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Girona beat Sevilla 0-2 at Estadio Ramón Sánchez Pizjuán, Regular Season - 4, in the La Liga. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Sevilla 1.54 xG and Girona 1.15 xG, a combined 2.69. The scoreboard read 0-2 for 2 actual goals. Sevilla fell 1.5 short of their projected output. Girona outscored their 1.15 projection by 0.9. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Sevilla attack 0.95 / defence 1.15 against Girona attack 1.00 / defence 1.12, drawn from 41/41 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Sevilla 45% | Draw 28% | Girona 27%, with Sevilla to win its most likely call at 45%. The actual Girona win had been the model's second-ranked read at 27%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 50%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 76% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 55% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 57% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Sevilla 51%, Girona 63%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 56%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Sevilla's trading profile (41 games, 20 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 58% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 27% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Girona's trading profile (41 games, 20 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 54% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 32% of the time, and duly kept one.
Form vs Result
On form, Girona arrived the stronger side — 2.07 PPG against 1.05. Form held, and they took the win. Sevilla (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.40 scoring average — below par going forward. Girona (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.45 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (hit). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.
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