Mallorca 0-0 Sevilla – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Mallorca at 41%, yet other data sources diverge — this Mallorca vs Sevilla fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Mallorca and Sevilla meet at Estadi Mallorca Son Moix in La Liga, Regular Season - 3. This fixture gets under way on Tuesday 27 August 2024 at 18:00 UTC.
Current Form
Mallorca's overall La Liga record this term: 2W 4D 4L from 10 games (1.00 PPG). Last five: D D W D L. They are averaging 0.90 goals per game and conceding 1.10 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. Mallorca have played only a handful of La Liga games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Mallorca at Estadi Mallorca Son Moix this season: 4W 2D 4L from 10 home games — 1.40 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 0.90 goals scored and 0.90 conceded per game.
Sevilla (all games): 3W 2D 5L across 10 La Liga outings this term — 1.10 points per game. Last five: L L L D L. Their scoring rate of 1.40 per game is modest, conceding 1.40 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. Sevilla have played only a handful of La Liga games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Sevilla away from home this season: 3W 4D 3L from 10 away games — 1.30 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.20 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game.
Neither side holds a meaningful form edge. The 1.00 vs 1.10 PPG split is negligible — model and market signals should carry more analytical weight for this one.
H2H History
Form and model data should carry more weight here — the historical record is too balanced to provide a directional steer. From 6 meetings: Mallorca 1W, Sevilla 3W, 2D.
Scoring has been limited when these teams have met. The 6 previous contests averaged 1.5 goals, making the Under 2.5 the historically backed angle in the goals market. The most recent clash, on 22 Apr 2024, ended 1–2 with Sevilla winning.
With a balanced win record and just 1.5 goals per game historically, the H2H points toward a tight, low-scoring contest. Under 2.5 goals has the strongest statistical grounding from the fixture history regardless of which side wins.
Trading Data
Mallorca goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (40 games, 20 at home): they score before half-time in 65% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 72% of the time; BTTS occurs in 45% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 25% of games (home games); they fail to score in 40% of games.
Sevilla goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (40 games, 20 at away): they score before half-time in 75% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 83% of the time; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 45% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Mallorca 48% versus Sevilla 60%; no strong lean in either direction. Under 2.5 goals has backing from the in-play data — both teams register low Over 2.5 rates (Mallorca 28% | Sevilla 52%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Mallorca 1.32 xG and Sevilla 1.08 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Mallorca attack 0.879 / defence 0.921 | Sevilla attack 1.079 / defence 1.043. League average goals — home 1.444 / away 1.088. Data: 40 Mallorca games / 40 Sevilla games used (Blended). A blend of current and prior-season data is applied to stabilise estimates early in the campaign.
Result probabilities: Mallorca 41% | Draw 30% | Sevilla 29%. Fair-value odds: Mallorca 2.44 | Draw 3.33 | Sevilla 3.45. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 30% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 43% | BTTS probability 50% | Total xG 2.40. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 57% — total xG of 2.40 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 50% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates Mallorca as the most likely outcome at 41% — marginal model lean. Draw probability of 30% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Mallorca if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 29% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 2.40 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 43% — strong confidence, supported by form averaging 2.1 goals per game and H2H averaging 1.5 goals per meeting.
Poisson assigns a 50% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Mallorca 40% | Sevilla 50% BTTS from recent games.
The Poisson model is drawing on Blended data (40 games minimum) — early-season projections carry additional uncertainty. Weight the live form and odds signals accordingly.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Mallorca vs Sevilla | Competition: La Liga, Regular Season - 3 | Venue: Estadi Mallorca Son Moix • Kick-off: Tuesday 27 Aug 2024, 18:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Mallorca 41% | Draw 30% | Sevilla 29% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 43% | BTTS 50% | xG Mallorca 1.32 / Sevilla 1.08 • Poisson strength factors: Mallorca attack 0.879 / def 0.921 | Sevilla attack 1.079 / def 1.043 | league avg home 1.444 / away 1.088 • Poisson stance: Mallorca (41%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.32
Mallorca xG
Expected Goals
1.08
Sevilla xG
50%
BTTS
70%
Over 1.5
43%
Over 2.5
22%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Mallorca vs Sevilla kick off?
Mallorca vs Sevilla kicked off at 18:00 on Tuesday 27 August 2024 at Estadi Mallorca Son Moix.
What was the final score in Mallorca vs Sevilla?
Mallorca 0 - 0 Sevilla.
Where is Mallorca vs Sevilla being played?
The match is being played at Estadi Mallorca Son Moix.
What competition is Mallorca vs Sevilla part of?
Mallorca vs Sevilla is a Regular Season - 3 fixture in the La Liga (Spain).
Who is favourite to win Mallorca vs Sevilla?
Our statistical model gives Mallorca a 41% chance of winning, Sevilla a 29% chance, and a 30% chance of a draw — making Mallorca the favourite.
Will both teams score in Mallorca vs Sevilla?
Our model estimates a 50% probability that both Mallorca and Sevilla will score (BTTS).
Will Mallorca vs Sevilla have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 43%.
What is the head-to-head record between Mallorca and Sevilla?
Record (6 meetings): Mallorca 1W | Draws 2 | Sevilla 3W.
What form are Mallorca and Sevilla in?
Mallorca (all comps): 2W-4D-4L in 10 | 1.00 PPG | GF 0.90 / GA 1.10 | L5 D-D-W-D-L. Sevilla (all comps): 3W-2D-5L in 10 | 1.10 PPG | GF 1.40 / GA 1.40 | L5 L-L-L-D-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Mallorca's attacking strength (0.88x league average) is weighed against Sevilla's defensive record (1.04x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.32. Flip it around — Sevilla's attack (1.08x) against Mallorca's defence (0.92x) — and the away total comes out at 1.08.
The sample (40/40 games) mixes this season and last, since the current campaign is still relatively young.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 14.6%. Close behind: 0-0 (10.7%), 1-0 (10.3%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 36% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Mallorca Win
41%
2.43
30%
3.38
29%
3.41
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.9%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
12.0%
Home win
0 – 1
9.8%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.32
Mallorca xG
Total xG
2.40
1.08
Sevilla xG
2.43
41%
Home win
3.38
30%
Draw
3.41
29%
Away win
Goals Markets
69%
Over 1.5
1.45
31%
Under 1.5
3.23
43%
Over 2.5
2.33
57%
Under 2.5
1.75
22%
Over 3.5
4.55
78%
Under 3.5
1.28
10%
Over 4.5
10.00
90%
Under 4.5
1.11
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
50%
BTTS Yes
2.02
50%
BTTS No
1.98
Clean Sheet
34%
2.95
27%
3.75
Win to Nil
14%
7.18
8%
12.80
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 9.0 | 9.8 | 5.3 | 1.9 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 12.0 | 12.9 | 7.0 | 2.5 | 0.7 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 7.9 | 8.5 | 4.6 | 1.7 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 3.5 | 3.8 | 2.0 | 0.7 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 1.2 | 1.2 | 0.7 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Mallorca vs Sevilla?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.6%.
How many goals are Mallorca and Sevilla expected to score?
The model projects 1.32 expected goals for Mallorca and 1.08 for Sevilla, a combined total of 2.40.
How confident is the prediction model for Mallorca vs Sevilla?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 41%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Mallorca come into this having played 40 games, going 8W 17D 15L for 1.02 points per game. Their last five reads D-D-W-D-L. It's still early in the season for Mallorca, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
On the other side, Sevilla sit at 1.05 PPG from 40 outings (10W 12D 18L), a run that reads L-L-L-D-L across their last five. It's still early in the season for Sevilla, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.02 PPG for Mallorca against 1.05 for Sevilla. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
Home & Away Splits
Mallorca's home form reads 6W 9D 5L across 20 games on their own ground, a 1.35 PPG return.
Away from home, Sevilla have taken 0.95 points per game from 20 outings (4W 7D 9L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Mallorca come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Mallorca are averaging 0.85 goals scored and 1.15 conceded per game recently; Sevilla are on 1.27 scored and 1.45 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Sevilla in 60%.
Last 40 Results — La Liga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Mallorca
Early Season
Sevilla
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Mallorca and Sevilla in coming into this match?
Mallorca have gone 8W 17D 15L in their last 40 games (1.02 PPG), while Sevilla have gone 10W 12D 18L in their last 40 (1.05 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Mallorca at home or Sevilla away?
Mallorca's home record (1.35 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Mallorca at home: 1.35 PPG; Sevilla away: 0.95 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 10 times since October 2021 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in La Liga. They last met on 2 February 2026, roughly 5 months ago.
Records & Recent Trends
Mallorca have won the last 2 meetings between these two, a run that gives them the psychological edge coming in.
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Mallorca won 4-1 on 2 Feb 2026, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Mallorca have gone 2W 2D 1L from 5 meetings on their own ground against Sevilla — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
3
Mallorca
4
Draws
3
Sevilla
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Mallorca and Sevilla?
From 10 meetings on record, Mallorca have won 3, Sevilla have won 3, and 4 have been drawn.
When did Mallorca and Sevilla last play each other?
They last met on 2 February 2026, when Mallorca 4-1 Sevilla.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Mallorca are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 65% of their matches.
Sevilla are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 75% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 25% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 20% of those situations.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Mallorca 45%, Sevilla 50% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Low-scoring games have been more typical here — Over 2.5 sits at just 25% for Mallorca and 45% for Sevilla.
On the defensive side: Mallorca keep a clean sheet in 35% of their matches; Mallorca have failed to score in 35% of games; Sevilla in 35%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Mallorca home games / Sevilla away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Mallorca play Sevilla?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 45% of Mallorca's recent matches and 50% of Sevilla's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Mallorca vs Sevilla usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 25% of Mallorca's recent games and 45% of Sevilla's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Mallorca and Sevilla tend to score early?
Mallorca have had a goal before half-time in 65% of their recent matches, Sevilla in 75% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Stalemate at Mallorca's ground as both sides cancel each other out in a goalless draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Mallorca and Sevilla finished level at 0-0 at Estadi Mallorca Son Moix, Regular Season - 3, in the La Liga. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Mallorca 1.32 xG and Sevilla 1.08 xG, a combined 2.40. The scoreboard read 0-0 for 0 actual goals. Mallorca fell 1.3 short of their projected output. Sevilla landed 1.1 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Mallorca attack 0.88 / defence 0.92 against Sevilla attack 1.08 / defence 1.04, drawn from 40/40 games (Blended).
On the result, the model split it Mallorca 41% | Draw 30% | Sevilla 29%, with Mallorca to win its most likely call at 41%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 30%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 43%. The game delivered 0, so it stayed under — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 70% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 50% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 40% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Mallorca 28%, Sevilla 52%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 54%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Mallorca's trading profile (40 games, 20 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 48% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 40% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Sevilla's trading profile (40 games, 20 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 60% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 25% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Mallorca 1.02 PPG, Sevilla 1.05 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. Mallorca (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 0.90 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 0.85 average — tighter than their form line. Sevilla (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.15 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.45 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.