Rayo Vallecano 0-0 Mallorca – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Rayo Vallecano at 37%, yet other data sources diverge — this Rayo Vallecano vs Mallorca fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Estadio de Vallecas plays host to Rayo Vallecano versus Mallorca in La Liga, Regular Season - 38. Kick-off: Saturday 24 May 2025 at 20:00 UTC.
Current Form
Rayo Vallecano's overall La Liga record this term: 4W 3D 3L from 10 games (1.50 PPG). Last five: L W W D W. They are averaging 1.20 goals per game and conceding 1.60 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation.
In front of their own supporters this season, Rayo Vallecano have posted 4W 4D 2L at Estadio de Vallecas — 1.60 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.20 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Mallorca (all games): 3W 1D 6L across 10 La Liga outings this term — 1.00 points per game. Last five: L L W L L. Their scoring rate of 0.90 per game is modest, conceding 1.10 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation.
Mallorca's away record: 2W 2D 6L from 10 road trips in La Liga this season (0.80 PPG). Away from home they average 0.60 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel.
Form favours the hosts. Rayo Vallecano's 1.50 PPG return is 0.50 points per game ahead of Mallorca's 1.00 — a genuine gap in recent results that provides a statistically grounded case for backing the home side.
Head-to-Head
Mallorca hold the superior head-to-head record in this fixture, claiming 5 wins from 7 meetings. The hosts have won just 1 times in that span.
Attacking output has been a hallmark of this fixture. At 2.9 goals per game across 7 meetings, the Over 2.5 has a statistically grounded case from the head-to-head record alone. The most recent clash, on 20 Oct 2024, ended 0–1 with Mallorca winning.
The H2H provides genuine backing for the away side. Mallorca have won 5 of 7 previous encounters, and at 2.9 goals per game, the goals market also points upward. The away win and Over 2.5 combination has a historical case worth noting.
Trading Data
Rayo Vallecano goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (75 games, 37 at home): they score before half-time in 73% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 68% of the time; BTTS occurs in 62% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 46% of games (home games); they fail to score in 36% of games.
Mallorca goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (75 games, 37 at away): they score before half-time in 51% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 76% of the time; BTTS occurs in 46% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 32% of games (away games); they fail to score in 37% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Rayo Vallecano 47% versus Mallorca 49%; no strong lean in either direction. Under 2.5 goals has backing from the in-play data — both teams register low Over 2.5 rates (Rayo Vallecano 41% | Mallorca 35%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Rayo Vallecano 1.09 xG and Mallorca 1.01 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Rayo Vallecano attack 0.888 / defence 1.145 | Mallorca attack 0.761 / defence 0.887. League average goals — home 1.382 / away 1.161. Data: 75 Rayo Vallecano games / 75 Mallorca games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Rayo Vallecano 37% | Draw 30% | Mallorca 33%. Fair-value odds: Rayo Vallecano 2.70 | Draw 3.33 | Mallorca 3.03. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 30% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 35% | BTTS probability 42% | Total xG 2.10. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 65% probability — total xG of 2.10 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS probability of 42% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Final Verdict
Mallorca lead the H2H ledger, but Rayo Vallecano carry stronger current form — do not let history alone dictate your assessment.
Poisson rates Rayo Vallecano as the most likely outcome at 37% — marginal model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 30% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Rayo Vallecano if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 33% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 2.10 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 35% — marginal — conflicting signals confidence, supported by form averaging 2.2 goals per game — though H2H averaging only 2.9 goals per meeting points in the other direction.
Poisson assigns a 42% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Rayo Vallecano 60% | Mallorca 30% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 33% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Rayo Vallecano vs Mallorca | Competition: La Liga, Regular Season - 38 | Venue: Estadio de Vallecas • Kick-off: Saturday 24 May 2025, 20:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Rayo Vallecano 37% | Draw 30% | Mallorca 33% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 35% | BTTS 42% | xG Rayo Vallecano 1.09 / Mallorca 1.01 • Poisson strength factors: Rayo Vallecano attack 0.888 / def 1.145 | Mallorca attack 0.761 / def 0.887 | league avg home 1.382 / away 1.161 • Poisson stance: Rayo Vallecano (37%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.09
Rayo Vallecano xG
Expected Goals
1.01
Mallorca xG
42%
BTTS
62%
Over 1.5
35%
Over 2.5
16%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Rayo Vallecano vs Mallorca kick off?
Rayo Vallecano vs Mallorca kicked off at 20:00 on Saturday 24 May 2025 at Estadio de Vallecas.
What was the final score in Rayo Vallecano vs Mallorca?
Rayo Vallecano 0 - 0 Mallorca.
Where is Rayo Vallecano vs Mallorca being played?
The match is being played at Estadio de Vallecas.
What competition is Rayo Vallecano vs Mallorca part of?
Rayo Vallecano vs Mallorca is a Regular Season - 38 fixture in the La Liga (Spain).
Who is favourite to win Rayo Vallecano vs Mallorca?
Our statistical model gives Rayo Vallecano a 37% chance of winning, Mallorca a 33% chance, and a 30% chance of a draw — making Rayo Vallecano the favourite.
Will both teams score in Rayo Vallecano vs Mallorca?
Our model estimates a 42% probability that both Rayo Vallecano and Mallorca will score (BTTS).
Will Rayo Vallecano vs Mallorca have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 35%.
What is the head-to-head record between Rayo Vallecano and Mallorca?
Record (7 meetings): Rayo Vallecano 1W | Draws 1 | Mallorca 5W.
What form are Rayo Vallecano and Mallorca in?
Rayo Vallecano (all comps): 4W-3D-3L in 10 | 1.50 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 1.60 | L5 L-W-W-D-W. Mallorca (all comps): 3W-1D-6L in 10 | 1.00 PPG | GF 0.90 / GA 1.10 | L5 L-L-W-L-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
The model rates Rayo Vallecano's attack at 0.89x the league average against Mallorca's defence at 0.89x — combine the two and it projects 1.09 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Mallorca's attack (0.76x) against Rayo Vallecano's defence (1.15x) — and the away total comes out at 1.01.
These ratings are built from 75/75 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 15.2% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 0-0 (14.0%), 1-0 (11.6%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 41% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Rayo Vallecano Win
37%
2.70
30%
3.34
33%
3.02
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
13.5%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
13.3%
Home win
0 – 1
12.4%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.09
Rayo Vallecano xG
Total xG
2.10
1.01
Mallorca xG
2.70
37%
Home win
3.34
30%
Draw
3.02
33%
Away win
Goals Markets
62%
Over 1.5
1.61
38%
Under 1.5
2.63
35%
Over 2.5
2.86
65%
Under 2.5
1.54
16%
Over 3.5
6.25
84%
Under 3.5
1.19
6%
Over 4.5
16.67
94%
Under 4.5
1.06
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
42%
BTTS Yes
2.37
58%
BTTS No
1.73
Clean Sheet
36%
2.75
34%
2.97
Win to Nil
13%
7.43
11%
8.98
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 12.3 | 12.4 | 6.3 | 2.1 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 13.3 | 13.5 | 6.8 | 2.3 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 7.3 | 7.3 | 3.7 | 1.2 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 2.6 | 2.7 | 1.3 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 0.7 | 0.7 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Rayo Vallecano vs Mallorca?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 15.2%.
How many goals are Rayo Vallecano and Mallorca expected to score?
The model projects 1.09 expected goals for Rayo Vallecano and 1.01 for Mallorca, a combined total of 2.10.
How confident is the prediction model for Rayo Vallecano vs Mallorca?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 37%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Across their last 75 outings, Rayo Vallecano have picked up 1.19 PPG on a 21W 26D 28L record — L-W-W-D-W across the most recent five.
Mallorca's form line: 21W 24D 30L from 75 games, 1.16 PPG, last five L-L-W-L-L.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.19 PPG for Rayo Vallecano against 1.16 for Mallorca. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
Home & Away Splits
On home soil, Rayo Vallecano have posted 1.22 PPG from 37 outings (10W 15D 12L).
On the road, Mallorca have gone 8W 10D 19L from 37 away games — 0.92 PPG when travelling.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Rayo Vallecano are averaging 0.93 goals scored and 1.24 conceded per game recently; Mallorca are on 0.91 scored and 1.17 conceded.
Last 75 Results — La Liga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Rayo Vallecano
Current Season
Mallorca
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Rayo Vallecano and Mallorca in coming into this match?
Rayo Vallecano have gone 21W 26D 28L in their last 75 games (1.19 PPG), while Mallorca have gone 21W 24D 30L in their last 75 (1.16 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Rayo Vallecano at home or Mallorca away?
Rayo Vallecano's home record (1.22 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Rayo Vallecano at home: 1.22 PPG; Mallorca away: 0.92 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 10 times since November 2021 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in La Liga. They last met on 12 April 2026, roughly 5 months ago.
Records & Recent Trends
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Mallorca won 3-0 on 4 Jun 2023, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Rayo Vallecano have gone 2W 2D 1L from 5 meetings on their own ground against Mallorca — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
2
Rayo Vallecano
2
Draws
6
Mallorca
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Rayo Vallecano and Mallorca?
From 10 meetings on record, Rayo Vallecano have won 2, Mallorca have won 6, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Rayo Vallecano and Mallorca last play each other?
They last met on 12 April 2026, when Mallorca 3-0 Rayo Vallecano.
Who has won more matches between Rayo Vallecano and Mallorca?
Mallorca have the better head-to-head record, with 6 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Rayo Vallecano are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 73% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 30% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 19% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Mallorca see a goal before the break in 51% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 11% of those situations.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Rayo Vallecano 62%, Mallorca 46% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 46% (Rayo Vallecano) and 32% (Mallorca).
On the defensive side: Mallorca in 43%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Rayo Vallecano home games / Mallorca away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Rayo Vallecano play Mallorca?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 62% of Rayo Vallecano's recent matches and 46% of Mallorca's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Rayo Vallecano vs Mallorca usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 46% of Rayo Vallecano's recent games and 32% of Mallorca's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Rayo Vallecano and Mallorca tend to score early?
Rayo Vallecano have had a goal before half-time in 73% of their recent matches, Mallorca in 51% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Stalemate at Rayo Vallecano's ground as both sides cancel each other out in a goalless draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at Estadio de Vallecas, Regular Season - 38, as Rayo Vallecano and Mallorca drew 0-0 in the La Liga. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Rayo Vallecano 1.09 xG and Mallorca 1.01 xG, a combined 2.10. The scoreboard read 0-0 for 0 actual goals. Rayo Vallecano fell 1.1 short of their projected output. Mallorca landed 1.0 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Rayo Vallecano attack 0.89 / defence 1.15 against Mallorca attack 0.76 / defence 0.89, drawn from 75/75 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Rayo Vallecano 37% | Draw 30% | Mallorca 33%, with Rayo Vallecano to win its most likely call at 37%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 30%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 35%. The game delivered 0, so it stayed under — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 62% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 42% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 38% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Rayo Vallecano 41%, Mallorca 35%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 48%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Rayo Vallecano's trading profile (75 games, 37 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 47% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 36% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Mallorca's trading profile (75 games, 37 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 49% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 37% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Rayo Vallecano 1.19 PPG, Mallorca 1.16 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. Rayo Vallecano (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.14 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.41 average — tighter than their form line. Mallorca (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 0.84 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.38 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.