Osasuna 1-0 Valladolid – Result & Analysis

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Poisson rates Osasuna at 68% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Osasuna vs Valladolid encounter.

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Match Analysis

Osasuna host Valladolid at Estadio El Sadar in La Liga, Regular Season - 12. Kick-off is scheduled for Saturday 2 November 2024 at 13:00 UTC.

Form Guide

Osasuna — All Games: 5W 2D 3L from 10 La Liga outings this season, averaging 1.70 points per game. Last five: D W D L W. Offensively they are averaging 1.50 goals per game, with 1.50 conceded. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Osasuna, so this record blends games from this season and last.

Osasuna's home record at Estadio El Sadar: 4W 3D 3L from 10 La Liga appearances (1.50 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.40 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.

Across all La Liga games this season, Valladolid have recorded 1W 2D 7L from 10 outings — 0.50 PPG. Last five: L L L W L. Their scoring rate of 0.80 per game is modest, conceding 2.30 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Conceding 2.30 per game is a high rate — their defensive vulnerabilities have been exposed regularly this season. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Valladolid, so this record blends games from this season and last.

When travelling in La Liga this season, Valladolid have posted 1W 0D 4L from 5 away outings — 0.60 PPG. Away from home they average 1.00 goals scored and 3.40 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.

On current form, Osasuna have the edge — a 1.20 PPG advantage (1.70 vs 0.50) represents a meaningful gap. That momentum makes them the form-based pick, though if the outright price looks short, Draw No Bet is worth comparing.

The BTTS market is worth targeting here. Osasuna register both teams scoring in 70% of relevant matches, Valladolid in 60% (using home/away splits) — both sides above the 60% threshold gives BTTS Yes firm statistical grounding.

Head to Head

There is little to separate the sides historically. From 2 previous meetings, Osasuna have won 1, Valladolid 0, with 1 draws — a balanced ledger that offers no obvious directional steer on its own.

The last 2 meetings have been tight affairs, averaging just 1.0 goals per game. That low-scoring pattern is a meaningful historical input for the Under 2.5 market. The most recent clash, on 12 Feb 2023, ended 0–0 with a draw.

With a balanced win record and just 1.0 goals per game historically, the H2H points toward a tight, low-scoring contest. Under 2.5 goals has the strongest statistical grounding from the fixture history regardless of which side wins.

In-Play Profile

Osasuna in-play tendencies (11 games, 5 at home): they score before half-time in 80% of fixtures in home games; BTTS occurs in 80% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 80% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 36%.

Valladolid in-play tendencies (11 games, 5 at away): they score before half-time in 80% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 60% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 60% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 60% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 100% of games (away games); they fail to score in 36% of games.

BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Osasuna 64% versus Valladolid 54%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Osasuna 54% | Valladolid 73%).

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects Osasuna 2.63 xG and Valladolid 1.15 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Osasuna attack 1.161 / defence 1.108 | Valladolid attack 0.970 / defence 1.594. League average goals — home 1.423 / away 1.073. Valladolid bring a strong defensive rating of 1.594 — this is suppressing Osasuna's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 49 Osasuna games / 11 Valladolid games used (CurrentSeason).

Result probabilities: Osasuna 68% | Draw 18% | Valladolid 14%. Fair-value odds: Osasuna 1.47 | Draw 5.56 | Valladolid 7.14. The model has a clear lean to Osasuna (68%) — a 54pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 73% | BTTS probability 64% | Total xG 3.79. Over 2.5 is the model's clear signal at 73% — a total xG of 3.79 means the expected score alone exceeds the 2.5 threshold, making the Over not just likely but structurally supported by both sides' attack/defence profiles. BTTS Yes at 64% reflects that both xG figures (2.63 / 1.15) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.

Analysis Verdict

On the Poisson output, Osasuna are the pick at 68% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 18% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.

Poisson projects 3.79 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 73% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by form averaging 3.6 goals per game.

The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 64%. Form rates corroborate: Osasuna 70% | Valladolid 60% BTTS from recent games.

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