Osasuna 3-3 Valencia – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Osasuna at 58%, yet other data sources diverge — this Osasuna vs Valencia fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A La Liga encounter, Regular Season - 26 sees Valencia travel to Estadio El Sadar to take on Osasuna. The game is scheduled for Sunday 2 March 2025, 20:00 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all La Liga games this season, Osasuna have gone 1W 6D 3L from 10 outings — a 0.90 PPG return. Last five: D W D D L. They are averaging 0.90 goals per game and conceding 1.10 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Osasuna, so this record blends games from this season and last.
At home at Estadio El Sadar, Osasuna have gone 4W 4D 2L this season (10 games, 1.60 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.70 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 90% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture. Their home PPG of 1.60 is noticeably stronger than their overall 0.90 — Osasuna are significantly better at Estadio El Sadar than their overall form suggests.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Valencia stand at 3W 4D 3L from 10 La Liga matches — 1.30 PPG. Last five: L W W D L. Their scoring rate of 1.20 per game is modest, conceding 1.80 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Valencia, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Valencia away from home this season: 0W 5D 5L from 10 away games — 0.50 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 0.60 goals scored and 2.00 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context. Their away PPG of 0.50 is notably below their overall 1.30 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
The form figures are too closely matched to derive a directional pick: Osasuna 0.90 PPG, Valencia 1.30 PPG. Look to other data sets to build the analysis.
The BTTS market is worth targeting here. Osasuna register both teams scoring in 90% of relevant matches, Valencia in 60% (using home/away splits) — both sides above the 60% threshold gives BTTS Yes firm statistical grounding.
H2H
The H2H landscape is flat: 7 previous encounters have yielded 2 wins for Osasuna, 4 for Valencia and 1 draws. A neutral reading in isolation.
The 7 previous meetings have averaged 2.3 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 24 Sep 2024, ended 0–0 with a draw.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
In-Play Data
Osasuna trading profile (63 games, 31 at home): they score before half-time in 81% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 82% of the time; BTTS occurs in 61% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 42% of games (home games).
Valencia trading profile (63 games, 31 at away): they score before half-time in 71% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 68% of the time; BTTS occurs in 52% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 45% of games (away games); they fail to score in 33% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Osasuna 56% versus Valencia 48%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Osasuna 43% | Valencia 44%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Osasuna 1.89 xG and Valencia 0.99 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Osasuna attack 1.037 / defence 1.088 | Valencia attack 0.819 / defence 1.266. League average goals — home 1.438 / away 1.117. Valencia bring a strong defensive rating of 1.266 — this is suppressing Osasuna's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 63 Osasuna games / 63 Valencia games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Osasuna 58% | Draw 22% | Valencia 20%. Fair-value odds: Osasuna 1.72 | Draw 4.55 | Valencia 5.00. The model has a clear lean to Osasuna (58%) — a 38pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 55% | BTTS probability 54% | Total xG 2.88. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 55% — the 2.88 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS probability of 54% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Osasuna as the most likely outcome at 58% — clear model lean. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 22% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
Poisson projects 2.88 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 55% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by form averaging 2.9 goals per game.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 54%. Form rates corroborate: Osasuna 90% | Valencia 60% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Osasuna vs Valencia | Competition: La Liga, Regular Season - 26 | Venue: Estadio El Sadar • Kick-off: Sunday 2 Mar 2025, 20:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Osasuna 58% | Draw 22% | Valencia 20% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 55% | BTTS 54% | xG Osasuna 1.89 / Valencia 0.99 • Poisson strength factors: Osasuna attack 1.037 / def 1.088 | Valencia attack 0.819 / def 1.266 | league avg home 1.438 / away 1.117 • Poisson stance: Osasuna (58%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.89
Osasuna xG
Expected Goals
0.99
Valencia xG
54%
BTTS
78%
Over 1.5
55%
Over 2.5
33%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Osasuna vs Valencia kick off?
Osasuna vs Valencia kicked off at 20:00 on Sunday 2 March 2025 at Estadio El Sadar.
What was the final score in Osasuna vs Valencia?
Osasuna 3 - 3 Valencia.
Where is Osasuna vs Valencia being played?
The match is being played at Estadio El Sadar.
What competition is Osasuna vs Valencia part of?
Osasuna vs Valencia is a Regular Season - 26 fixture in the La Liga (Spain).
Who is favourite to win Osasuna vs Valencia?
Our statistical model gives Osasuna a 58% chance of winning, Valencia a 20% chance, and a 22% chance of a draw — making Osasuna the favourite.
Will both teams score in Osasuna vs Valencia?
Our model estimates a 54% probability that both Osasuna and Valencia will score (BTTS).
Will Osasuna vs Valencia have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 55%.
What is the head-to-head record between Osasuna and Valencia?
Record (7 meetings): Osasuna 2W | Draws 1 | Valencia 4W.
What form are Osasuna and Valencia in?
Osasuna (all comps): 1W-6D-3L in 10 | 0.90 PPG | GF 0.90 / GA 1.10 | L5 D-W-D-D-L. Valencia (all comps): 3W-4D-3L in 10 | 1.30 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 1.80 | L5 L-W-W-D-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Working from Osasuna's attack rating (1.04) and Valencia's defence rating (1.27), the model arrives at 1.89 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Valencia's attack versus Osasuna's defence, projects 0.99 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 63/63 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 11.9%. Close behind: 2-0 (10.0%), 2-1 (9.9%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 32% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Osasuna Win
58%
1.72
22%
4.50
20%
5.12
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
10.6%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
10.5%
Draw
2 – 0
10.0%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.89
Osasuna xG
Total xG
2.88
0.99
Valencia xG
1.72
58%
Home win
4.50
22%
Draw
5.12
20%
Away win
Goals Markets
78%
Over 1.5
1.28
22%
Under 1.5
4.55
55%
Over 2.5
1.82
45%
Under 2.5
2.22
33%
Over 3.5
3.03
67%
Under 3.5
1.49
17%
Over 4.5
5.88
83%
Under 4.5
1.20
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
54%
BTTS Yes
1.87
46%
BTTS No
2.15
Clean Sheet
37%
2.70
15%
6.61
Win to Nil
22%
4.64
3%
33.81
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.6 | 5.6 | 2.8 | 0.9 | 0.2 | – |
| 1 | 10.6 | 10.5 | 5.2 | 1.7 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 10.0 | 9.9 | 4.9 | 1.6 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 6.3 | 6.2 | 3.1 | 1.0 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 3.0 | 2.9 | 1.5 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 1.1 | 1.1 | 0.6 | 0.2 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Osasuna vs Valencia?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 11.9%.
How many goals are Osasuna and Valencia expected to score?
The model projects 1.89 expected goals for Osasuna and 0.99 for Valencia, a combined total of 2.88.
How confident is the prediction model for Osasuna vs Valencia?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 58%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Osasuna come into this having played 63 games, going 19W 20D 24L for 1.22 points per game. Their last five reads D-W-D-D-L. The sample for Osasuna is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Valencia sit at 1.14 PPG from 63 outings (18W 18D 27L), a run that reads L-W-W-D-L across their last five. The sample for Valencia is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: Osasuna on 1.22 PPG, Valencia on 1.14. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
Osasuna's home form reads 12W 10D 9L across 31 games on their own ground, a 1.48 PPG return.
Away from home, Valencia have taken 0.77 points per game from 31 outings (5W 9D 17L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Osasuna come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Osasuna are averaging 1.17 goals scored and 1.43 conceded per game recently; Valencia are on 1.03 scored and 1.37 conceded.
Last 63 Results — La Liga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Osasuna
Blended
Valencia
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Osasuna and Valencia in coming into this match?
Osasuna have gone 19W 20D 24L in their last 63 games (1.22 PPG), while Valencia have gone 18W 18D 27L in their last 63 (1.14 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Osasuna at home or Valencia away?
Osasuna's home record (1.48 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Osasuna at home: 1.48 PPG; Valencia away: 0.77 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Osasuna and Valencia runs to 10 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to September 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in La Liga. They last met on 1 March 2026, roughly 6 months ago.
Digging Into the Numbers
The biggest gap between the sides came on 12 Sep 2021, when Valencia won 1-4 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Osasuna's record when hosting Valencia specifically: 1W 1D 3L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
3
Osasuna
2
Draws
5
Valencia
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Osasuna and Valencia?
From 10 meetings on record, Osasuna have won 3, Valencia have won 5, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Osasuna and Valencia last play each other?
They last met on 1 March 2026, when Valencia 1-0 Osasuna.
Who has won more matches between Osasuna and Valencia?
Valencia have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Osasuna are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 81% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 32% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 13% of those situations.
Valencia are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 71% of their matches.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Osasuna 61%, Valencia 52% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 42% (Osasuna) and 45% (Valencia).
On the defensive side: Valencia in 39%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Osasuna home games / Valencia away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Osasuna play Valencia?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 61% of Osasuna's games and 52% of Valencia's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Osasuna vs Valencia usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 42% of Osasuna's recent games and 45% of Valencia's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Osasuna and Valencia tend to score early?
Osasuna have had a goal before half-time in 81% of their recent matches, Valencia in 71% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Osasuna and Valencia share the spoils in a 3-3 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at Estadio El Sadar, Regular Season - 26, as Osasuna and Valencia drew 3-3 in the La Liga. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Osasuna 1.89 xG and Valencia 0.99 xG, a combined 2.88. The scoreboard read 3-3 for 6 actual goals. Osasuna beat their projection by 1.1 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Valencia outscored their 0.99 projection by 2.0. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Osasuna attack 1.04 / defence 1.09 against Valencia attack 0.82 / defence 1.27, drawn from 63/63 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Osasuna 58% | Draw 22% | Valencia 20%, with Osasuna to win its most likely call at 58%. Instead the game produced a draw, an outcome the model had rated at just 22% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 55%. The game delivered 6, so it went over — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 78% and landed. Over 3.5 was 33% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 54% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 44% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Osasuna 43%, Valencia 44%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 52%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Osasuna's trading profile (63 games, 31 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 56% of their matches — today it did.
Valencia's trading profile (63 games, 31 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 48% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Osasuna 1.22 PPG, Valencia 1.14 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. Osasuna (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.32 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 3 against a 1.32 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Valencia (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 0.87 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 3 against a 1.77 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.