Levante vs Deportivo La Coruna – Pre-Match Analysis

📋

Poisson model rates Levante at 63%, yet other data sources diverge — this Levante vs Deportivo La Coruna fixture contains genuine analytical tension.

✍️ Match Preview

Fixture Analysis

It is a La Liga clash, Regular Season - 26 as Levante welcome Deportivo La Coruna to . Kick-off is set for Sunday 28 February 2027 at 16:00 UTC.

Recent Form

Across all La Liga games this season, Levante have gone 2W 4D 4L from 10 outings — a 1.00 PPG return. Last five: L L D D W. Offensively they are averaging 1.60 goals per game, with 1.90 conceded. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Levante, so this record blends games from this season and last.

Levante's home record at : 7W 2D 1L from 10 La Liga appearances (2.30 PPG). They are averaging 2.60 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture. Their home PPG of 2.30 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.00 — Levante are significantly better at than their overall form suggests.

Looking at all fixtures this season, Deportivo La Coruna stand at 2W 5D 2L from 9 La Liga matches — 1.22 PPG. Last five: D L D L D. Their scoring rate of 1.44 per game is modest, conceding 1.33 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Both teams have scored in 89% of their matches this season — one of the stronger BTTS rates in the division, making Yes a well-evidenced play. This season is still relatively young for Deportivo La Coruna, so this record blends games from this season and last.

Deportivo La Coruna's away record: 1W 2D 1L from 4 road trips in La Liga this season (1.25 PPG). Away from home they average 1.75 goals scored and 1.75 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 100% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.

The form comparison is too close to call — 1.00 PPG (Levante) versus 1.22 (Deportivo La Coruna). When the figures are this level, no pick can be reliably derived from recent results alone.

Both teams score in over 70% of each side's relevant games (using home/away splits). At that combined rate, BTTS Yes is as well-evidenced as it gets — the data strongly backs two-way scoring.

H2H Record

There is little to separate the sides historically. From 1 previous meetings, Levante have won 0, Deportivo La Coruna 0, with 1 draws — a balanced ledger that offers no obvious directional steer on its own.

The 1 previous meetings have averaged 2.0 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 16 Oct 2026, ended 1–1 with a draw.

The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.

Trading Patterns

Levante in-play and half-time data (9 games, 4 at home): they score before half-time in 100% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 33% of the time; BTTS occurs in 100% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 100% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 56%; they fail to score in 33% of games.

Deportivo La Coruna in-play and half-time data (9 games, 4 at away): they score before half-time in 75% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 67% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 100% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (away games).

From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Levante 67% and Deportivo La Coruna 89% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Levante 67% | Deportivo La Coruna 33%).

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects Levante 2.88 xG and Deportivo La Coruna 1.62 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Levante attack 1.440 / defence 1.230 | Deportivo La Coruna attack 1.034 / defence 1.213. League average goals — home 1.648 / away 1.274. Levante carry an above-average attack strength of 1.440 — their λ of 2.88 reflects genuine attacking quality above the league norm. Deportivo La Coruna bring a strong defensive rating of 1.213 — this is suppressing Levante's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 47 Levante games / 9 Deportivo La Coruna games used (CurrentSeason).

Result probabilities: Levante 63% | Draw 18% | Deportivo La Coruna 19%. Fair-value odds: Levante 1.59 | Draw 5.56 | Deportivo La Coruna 5.26. The model has a clear lean to Levante (63%) — a 44pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 83% | BTTS probability 76% | Total xG 4.50. Over 2.5 is the model's clear signal at 83% — a total xG of 4.50 means the expected score alone exceeds the 2.5 threshold, making the Over not just likely but structurally supported by both sides' attack/defence profiles. BTTS Yes at 76% reflects that both xG figures (2.88 / 1.62) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.

Analysis Verdict

On the Poisson output, Levante are the pick at 63% — clear model lean. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 18% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.

Poisson projects 4.50 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 83% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by form averaging 3.8 goals per game.

The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 76%. Form rates corroborate: Levante 70% | Deportivo La Coruna 100% BTTS from recent games.

🔮 Your Prediction

Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.

💡 Key Insights