Leganes 1-1 Osasuna – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Leganes at 39%, yet other data sources diverge — this Leganes vs Osasuna fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Leganes and Osasuna meet at Estadio Municipal de Butarque in La Liga, Regular Season - 30. This fixture gets under way on Monday 7 April 2025 at 20:00 UTC.
Current Form
Leganes's overall La Liga record this term: 2W 2D 6L from 10 games (0.80 PPG). Last five: L W L L L. They are averaging 1.00 goals per game and conceding 1.70 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation.
Leganes at Estadio Municipal de Butarque this season: 4W 1D 5L from 10 home games — 1.30 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.30 goals scored and 1.80 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground. At home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle. Their home PPG of 1.30 is noticeably stronger than their overall 0.80 — Leganes are significantly better at Estadio Municipal de Butarque than their overall form suggests.
Osasuna have collected 0.90 PPG across 10 La Liga outings this season: 1W 6D 3L. Last five: L D L L D. Their scoring rate of 1.00 per game is modest, conceding 1.40 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
Osasuna's away record: 1W 5D 4L from 10 road trips in La Liga this season (0.80 PPG). Away from home they average 0.50 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel.
Both sides are running at similar form levels — 0.80 PPG for Leganes against 0.90 for Osasuna. There is no clear form edge to exploit here; other signals need to take the lead.
Both sides have a clean-sheet tendency (using home/away splits) — Leganes have seen both teams score in just 30% of their matches, Osasuna in only 30%. BTTS No has clear statistical support from the form record of both squads.
H2H Analysis
The head-to-head record is closely matched — Leganes lead 0W to 0W over the last 1 encounters, with 1 draws, though neither side has established a commanding advantage.
The 1 previous meetings have averaged 2.0 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 17 Aug 2024, ended 1–1 with a draw.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
Trading & In-Play
Leganes — key trading statistics (29 games, 14 at home): they score before half-time in 43% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 77% of the time; BTTS occurs in 29% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (home games); they fail to score in 38% of games.
Osasuna — key trading statistics (29 games, 14 at away): they score before half-time in 43% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; BTTS occurs in 36% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 29% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Leganes 45% versus Osasuna 62%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Leganes 41% | Osasuna 48%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Leganes 1.16 xG and Osasuna 1.00 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Leganes attack 0.944 / defence 1.273 | Osasuna attack 0.633 / defence 0.905. League average goals — home 1.355 / away 1.236. Data: 29 Leganes games / 67 Osasuna games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Leganes 39% | Draw 29% | Osasuna 31%. Fair-value odds: Leganes 2.56 | Draw 3.45 | Osasuna 3.23. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 29% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 36% | BTTS probability 43% | Total xG 2.15. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 64% — total xG of 2.15 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 43% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, Leganes are the pick at 39% — marginal model lean. Draw probability of 29% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Leganes if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 31% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 2.15 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 36% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence.
Poisson assigns a 43% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Leganes 30% | Osasuna 30% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 31% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Leganes vs Osasuna | Competition: La Liga, Regular Season - 30 | Venue: Estadio Municipal de Butarque • Kick-off: Monday 7 Apr 2025, 20:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Leganes 39% | Draw 29% | Osasuna 31% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 36% | BTTS 43% | xG Leganes 1.16 / Osasuna 1.00 • Poisson strength factors: Leganes attack 0.944 / def 1.273 | Osasuna attack 0.633 / def 0.905 | league avg home 1.355 / away 1.236 • Poisson stance: Leganes (39%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.16
Leganes xG
Expected Goals
1.00
Osasuna xG
43%
BTTS
63%
Over 1.5
36%
Over 2.5
17%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Leganes vs Osasuna kick off?
Leganes vs Osasuna kicked off at 20:00 on Monday 7 April 2025 at Estadio Municipal de Butarque.
What was the final score in Leganes vs Osasuna?
Leganes 1 - 1 Osasuna.
Where is Leganes vs Osasuna being played?
The match is being played at Estadio Municipal de Butarque.
What competition is Leganes vs Osasuna part of?
Leganes vs Osasuna is a Regular Season - 30 fixture in the La Liga (Spain).
Who is favourite to win Leganes vs Osasuna?
Our statistical model gives Leganes a 39% chance of winning, Osasuna a 31% chance, and a 29% chance of a draw — making Leganes the favourite.
Will both teams score in Leganes vs Osasuna?
Our model estimates a 43% probability that both Leganes and Osasuna will score (BTTS).
Will Leganes vs Osasuna have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 36%.
What is the head-to-head record between Leganes and Osasuna?
Record (1 meetings): Leganes 0W | Draws 1 | Osasuna 0W.
What form are Leganes and Osasuna in?
Leganes (all comps): 2W-2D-6L in 10 | 0.80 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 1.70 | L5 L-W-L-L-L. Osasuna (all comps): 1W-6D-3L in 10 | 0.90 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 1.40 | L5 L-D-L-L-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Working from Leganes's attack rating (0.94) and Osasuna's defence rating (0.91), the model arrives at 1.16 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Osasuna's attack (0.63x) against Leganes's defence (1.27x) — and the away total comes out at 1.00.
These ratings are built from 29/67 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 15.1%. Close behind: 0-0 (13.3%), 1-0 (11.7%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 40% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Leganes Win
39%
2.54
29%
3.40
31%
3.20
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
13.4%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
13.4%
Draw
0 – 0
11.6%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.16
Leganes xG
Total xG
2.15
1.00
Osasuna xG
2.54
39%
Home win
3.40
29%
Draw
3.20
31%
Away win
Goals Markets
63%
Over 1.5
1.59
37%
Under 1.5
2.70
36%
Over 2.5
2.78
64%
Under 2.5
1.56
17%
Over 3.5
5.88
83%
Under 3.5
1.20
7%
Over 4.5
14.29
93%
Under 4.5
1.08
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
43%
BTTS Yes
2.31
57%
BTTS No
1.76
Clean Sheet
37%
2.71
31%
3.18
Win to Nil
15%
6.87
10%
10.20
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 11.6 | 11.6 | 5.8 | 1.9 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 13.4 | 13.4 | 6.7 | 2.2 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 7.8 | 7.7 | 3.9 | 1.3 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 3.0 | 3.0 | 1.5 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 0.9 | 0.9 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Leganes vs Osasuna?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 15.1%.
How many goals are Leganes and Osasuna expected to score?
The model projects 1.16 expected goals for Leganes and 1.00 for Osasuna, a combined total of 2.15.
How confident is the prediction model for Leganes vs Osasuna?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 39%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Across their last 29 outings, Leganes have picked up 0.93 PPG on a 6W 9D 14L record — L-W-L-L-L across the most recent five.
Osasuna's form line: 7W 13D 9L from 29 games, 1.17 PPG, last five L-D-L-L-D.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 0.93 PPG for Leganes against 1.17 for Osasuna. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
How They Fare by Venue
On home soil, Leganes have posted 1.21 PPG from 14 outings (5W 2D 7L).
On the road, Osasuna have gone 1W 7D 6L from 14 away games — 0.71 PPG when travelling. That's a step down from their 1.17 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Osasuna's season.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Leganes come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
Leganes are averaging 0.97 goals scored and 1.59 conceded per game recently; Osasuna are on 1.14 scored and 1.45 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Osasuna in 62%.
Last 29 Results — La Liga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Leganes
Current Season
Osasuna
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Leganes and Osasuna in coming into this match?
Leganes have gone 6W 9D 14L in their last 29 games (0.93 PPG), while Osasuna have gone 7W 13D 9L in their last 29 (1.17 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Leganes at home or Osasuna away?
Leganes's home record (1.21 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Leganes at home: 1.21 PPG; Osasuna away: 0.71 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 2 times that we have on record, stretching back to August 2024 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 1 year. Every recorded meeting has come in La Liga. It has been a while since the last meeting — 7 April 2025, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Last 2 Meetings
0
Leganes
2
Draws
0
Osasuna
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Leganes and Osasuna?
From 2 meetings on record, Leganes have won 0, Osasuna have won 0, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Leganes and Osasuna last play each other?
They last met on 7 April 2025, when Leganes 1-1 Osasuna.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Leganes see a goal before the break in 43% of their matches.
Osasuna see a goal before the break in 43% of their matches.
Full-Time Markets
Neither side has been leaking BTTS chances often — 29% (Leganes) and 36% (Osasuna) both sit on the low side, favouring BTTS No.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 50% (Leganes) and 29% (Osasuna).
On the defensive side: Leganes keep a clean sheet in 36% of their matches; Leganes have failed to score in 43% of games; Osasuna in 57%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Leganes home games / Osasuna away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Leganes play Osasuna?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 29% of Leganes's recent matches and 36% of Osasuna's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Leganes vs Osasuna usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 50% of Leganes's recent games and 29% of Osasuna's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Leganes and Osasuna share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at Estadio Municipal de Butarque, Regular Season - 30, as Leganes and Osasuna drew 1-1 in the La Liga. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Leganes 1.16 xG and Osasuna 1.00 xG, a combined 2.15. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Leganes attack 0.94 / defence 1.27 against Osasuna attack 0.63 / defence 0.91, drawn from 29/67 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Leganes 39% | Draw 29% | Osasuna 31%, with Leganes to win its most likely call at 39%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 29%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 36%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 63% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 43% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 45% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Leganes 41%, Osasuna 48%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 53%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Leganes's trading profile (29 games, 14 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 45% of their matches — today it did.
Osasuna's trading profile (29 games, 14 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 62% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Leganes 0.93 PPG, Osasuna 1.17 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.