Ulsan Hyundai FC 1-1 Pohang Steelers – Result & Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson model favours Ulsan Hyundai FC (51%) — form and H2H data both point in the same direction as Ulsan Hyundai FC face Pohang Steelers.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a K League 1 clash, Regular Season - 12 as Ulsan Hyundai FC welcome Pohang Steelers to Ulsan Munsu Football Stadium. Kick-off is set for Monday 5 May 2025 at 08:30 UTC.
Form Guide
Ulsan Hyundai FC — All Games: 7W 3D 0L from 10 K League 1 outings this season, averaging 2.40 points per game. Last five: D W W D W. Offensively they are averaging 1.90 goals per game, with 0.90 conceded. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches.
In front of their own supporters this season, Ulsan Hyundai FC have posted 8W 0D 2L at Ulsan Munsu Football Stadium — 2.40 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.90 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground.
Across all K League 1 games this season, Pohang Steelers have recorded 2W 3D 5L from 10 outings — 0.90 PPG. Last five: D L D L L. Their scoring rate of 1.10 per game is modest, conceding 1.70 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
Pohang Steelers's away record: 2W 3D 5L from 10 road trips in K League 1 this season (0.90 PPG). Away from home they average 1.70 goals scored and 1.90 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 90% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
Ulsan Hyundai FC carry the stronger recent momentum — 1.50 PPG ahead of their opponents on 2.40 vs 0.90. The form data is a point in their favour, and where the price allows, it is the cleaner directional bet.
Head to Head
The rivalry is an even one: 4 wins apiece for Ulsan Hyundai FC, 2 for Pohang Steelers and 0 shared spoils from 6 past contests. Neither side holds a meaningful historical edge.
Goals have been a feature of this fixture. The last 6 meetings have averaged 3.5 per game — a rate that gives the Over 2.5 market a solid historical foundation. The most recent clash, on 29 Mar 2025, ended 0–1 with Pohang Steelers winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.5 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
In-Play Profile
Ulsan Hyundai FC in-play tendencies (76 games, 37 at home): they score before half-time in 70% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 83% of the time; BTTS occurs in 57% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 62% of games (home games).
Pohang Steelers in-play tendencies (76 games, 37 at away): they score before half-time in 60% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 68% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 49% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Ulsan Hyundai FC 53% versus Pohang Steelers 63%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Ulsan Hyundai FC 53% | Pohang Steelers 43%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Ulsan Hyundai FC 1.68 xG and Pohang Steelers 1.10 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Ulsan Hyundai FC attack 1.120 / defence 0.952 | Pohang Steelers attack 1.132 / defence 1.201. League average goals — home 1.249 / away 1.024. Pohang Steelers bring a strong defensive rating of 1.201 — this is suppressing Ulsan Hyundai FC's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 46 Ulsan Hyundai FC games / 44 Pohang Steelers games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Ulsan Hyundai FC 51% | Draw 24% | Pohang Steelers 25%. Fair-value odds: Ulsan Hyundai FC 1.96 | Draw 4.17 | Pohang Steelers 4.00. Ulsan Hyundai FC hold a narrow Poisson edge at 51% — the draw (24%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 53% | BTTS probability 54% | Total xG 2.78. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 53%/47% — the total xG of 2.78 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 54% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Ulsan Hyundai FC are the pick at 51% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 24% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Ulsan Hyundai FC offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
The Poisson model projects 2.78 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 53% — strong confidence, supported by form averaging 3.3 goals per game and H2H averaging 3.5 goals per meeting.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 54% on Yes. Form rates corroborate: Ulsan Hyundai FC 50% | Pohang Steelers 90% BTTS from recent games.
🔮 Your Prediction
Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.
💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Ulsan Hyundai FC vs Pohang Steelers | Competition: K League 1, Regular Season - 12 | Venue: Ulsan Munsu Football Stadium • Kick-off: Monday 5 May 2025, 08:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Ulsan Hyundai FC 51% | Draw 24% | Pohang Steelers 25% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 53% | BTTS 54% | xG Ulsan Hyundai FC 1.68 / Pohang Steelers 1.10 • Poisson strength factors: Ulsan Hyundai FC attack 1.120 / def 0.952 | Pohang Steelers attack 1.132 / def 1.201 | league avg home 1.249 / away 1.024 • Poisson stance: Ulsan Hyundai FC (51%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.68
Ulsan Hyundai FC xG
Expected Goals
1.10
Pohang Steelers xG
54%
BTTS
77%
Over 1.5
53%
Over 2.5
30%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Ulsan Hyundai FC vs Pohang Steelers kick off?
Ulsan Hyundai FC vs Pohang Steelers kicked off at 08:30 on Monday 5 May 2025 at Ulsan Munsu Football Stadium.
What was the final score in Ulsan Hyundai FC vs Pohang Steelers?
Ulsan Hyundai FC 1 - 1 Pohang Steelers.
Where is Ulsan Hyundai FC vs Pohang Steelers being played?
The match is being played at Ulsan Munsu Football Stadium.
What competition is Ulsan Hyundai FC vs Pohang Steelers part of?
Ulsan Hyundai FC vs Pohang Steelers is a Regular Season - 12 fixture in the K League 1 (South-Korea).
Who is favourite to win Ulsan Hyundai FC vs Pohang Steelers?
Our statistical model gives Ulsan Hyundai FC a 51% chance of winning, Pohang Steelers a 25% chance, and a 24% chance of a draw — making Ulsan Hyundai FC the favourite.
Will both teams score in Ulsan Hyundai FC vs Pohang Steelers?
Our model estimates a 54% probability that both Ulsan Hyundai FC and Pohang Steelers will score (BTTS).
Will Ulsan Hyundai FC vs Pohang Steelers have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 53%.
What is the head-to-head record between Ulsan Hyundai FC and Pohang Steelers?
Record (6 meetings): Ulsan Hyundai FC 4W | Draws 0 | Pohang Steelers 2W.
What form are Ulsan Hyundai FC and Pohang Steelers in?
Ulsan Hyundai FC (all comps): 7W-3D-0L in 10 | 2.40 PPG | GF 1.90 / GA 0.90 | L5 D-W-W-D-W. Pohang Steelers (all comps): 2W-3D-5L in 10 | 0.90 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 1.70 | L5 D-L-D-L-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
The model rates Ulsan Hyundai FC's attack at 1.12x the league average against Pohang Steelers's defence at 1.20x — combine the two and it projects 1.68 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Pohang Steelers's attack versus Ulsan Hyundai FC's defence, projects 1.10 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 46/44 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 13.0% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 2-1 (9.6%), 1-0 (8.9%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 31% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Ulsan Hyundai FC Win
51%
1.97
24%
4.13
25%
4.00
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.5%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
10.4%
Home win
2 – 1
9.6%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.68
Ulsan Hyundai FC xG
Total xG
2.78
1.10
Pohang Steelers xG
1.97
51%
Home win
4.13
24%
Draw
4.00
25%
Away win
Goals Markets
77%
Over 1.5
1.30
23%
Under 1.5
4.35
53%
Over 2.5
1.89
47%
Under 2.5
2.13
30%
Over 3.5
3.33
70%
Under 3.5
1.43
15%
Over 4.5
6.67
85%
Under 4.5
1.18
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
54%
BTTS Yes
1.84
46%
BTTS No
2.19
Clean Sheet
33%
3.02
19%
5.37
Win to Nil
17%
5.93
5%
21.48
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.2 | 6.8 | 3.8 | 1.4 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 10.4 | 11.5 | 6.3 | 2.3 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 8.7 | 9.6 | 5.3 | 2.0 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 4.9 | 5.4 | 3.0 | 1.1 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 2.1 | 2.3 | 1.2 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.7 | 0.8 | 0.4 | 0.2 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Ulsan Hyundai FC vs Pohang Steelers?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.0%.
How many goals are Ulsan Hyundai FC and Pohang Steelers expected to score?
The model projects 1.68 expected goals for Ulsan Hyundai FC and 1.10 for Pohang Steelers, a combined total of 2.78.
How confident is the prediction model for Ulsan Hyundai FC vs Pohang Steelers?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 51%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Ulsan Hyundai FC's recent record stands at 44W 16D 16L from 76 games, a 1.95 PPG return, with D-W-W-D-W in the last five.
Pohang Steelers, meanwhile, have gone 30W 27D 19L across 76 games — 1.54 PPG, with D-L-D-L-L in their last five.
The points-per-game comparison favours Ulsan Hyundai FC by 0.41 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Pohang Steelers heading into this one.
Home Ground vs the Road
At home specifically, Ulsan Hyundai FC have managed 26W 7D 4L from 37 games — 2.30 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Pohang Steelers's away record stands at 11W 14D 12L across 37 trips, a 1.27 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Ulsan Hyundai FC come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Ulsan Hyundai FC are averaging 1.64 goals scored and 1.08 conceded per game recently; Pohang Steelers are on 1.39 scored and 1.18 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Pohang Steelers in 63%.
Defensively: Ulsan Hyundai FC have kept a clean sheet in 36% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 76 Results — K League 1
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Ulsan Hyundai FC
Current Season
Pohang Steelers
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Ulsan Hyundai FC and Pohang Steelers in coming into this match?
Ulsan Hyundai FC have gone 44W 16D 16L in their last 76 games (1.95 PPG), while Pohang Steelers have gone 30W 27D 19L in their last 76 (1.54 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Ulsan Hyundai FC at home or Pohang Steelers away?
Ulsan Hyundai FC's home record (2.30 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Ulsan Hyundai FC at home: 2.30 PPG; Pohang Steelers away: 1.27 PPG.
Have Ulsan Hyundai FC or Pohang Steelers been keeping clean sheets recently?
Ulsan Hyundai FC have kept a clean sheet in 36% of their recent games, Pohang Steelers in 26%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Ulsan Hyundai FC and Pohang Steelers runs to 10 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to November 2023. Every recorded meeting has come in K League 1. The two were last together as recently as 8 August 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Digging Into the Numbers
Ulsan Hyundai FC's record when hosting Pohang Steelers specifically: 3W 1D 1L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
5
Ulsan Hyundai FC
2
Draws
3
Pohang Steelers
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Ulsan Hyundai FC and Pohang Steelers?
From 10 meetings on record, Ulsan Hyundai FC have won 5, Pohang Steelers have won 3, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Ulsan Hyundai FC and Pohang Steelers last play each other?
They last met on 8 August 2026, when Pohang Steelers 0-2 Ulsan Hyundai FC.
Who has won more matches between Ulsan Hyundai FC and Pohang Steelers?
Ulsan Hyundai FC have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Ulsan Hyundai FC are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 70% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 43% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 11% of those situations.
Pohang Steelers see a goal before the break in 60% of their matches.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Ulsan Hyundai FC 57%, Pohang Steelers 68% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 62% (Ulsan Hyundai FC) and 49% (Pohang Steelers). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 38% and 27% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Ulsan Hyundai FC keep a clean sheet in 38% of their matches.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Ulsan Hyundai FC home games / Pohang Steelers away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Ulsan Hyundai FC play Pohang Steelers?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 57% of Ulsan Hyundai FC's games and 68% of Pohang Steelers's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Ulsan Hyundai FC vs Pohang Steelers usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 62% of Ulsan Hyundai FC's matches and 49% of Pohang Steelers's.
Do Ulsan Hyundai FC and Pohang Steelers tend to score early?
Ulsan Hyundai FC have had a goal before half-time in 70% of their recent matches, Pohang Steelers in 60% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Ulsan Hyundai FC and Pohang Steelers share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Ulsan Hyundai FC and Pohang Steelers finished level at 1-1 at Ulsan Munsu Football Stadium, Regular Season - 12, in the K League 1. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Ulsan Hyundai FC 1.68 xG and Pohang Steelers 1.10 xG, a combined 2.78. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Ulsan Hyundai FC attack 1.12 / defence 0.95 against Pohang Steelers attack 1.13 / defence 1.20, drawn from 46/44 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Ulsan Hyundai FC 51% | Draw 24% | Pohang Steelers 25%, with Ulsan Hyundai FC to win its most likely call at 51%. Instead the game produced a draw, an outcome the model had rated at just 24% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 53%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 77% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 54% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 48% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Ulsan Hyundai FC 53%, Pohang Steelers 43%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 58%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Ulsan Hyundai FC's trading profile (76 games, 37 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 53% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 36% of the time, and conceded here.
Pohang Steelers's trading profile (76 games, 37 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 63% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, Ulsan Hyundai FC arrived the stronger side — 1.95 PPG against 1.54. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win. Ulsan Hyundai FC (home/away splits) managed 1 against a 2.08 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit), form (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.