Suwon City FC 1-1 Ulsan Hyundai FC – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model favours Ulsan Hyundai FC (43%) — form and H2H data both point in the same direction as Suwon City FC face Ulsan Hyundai FC.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Suwon City FC host Ulsan Hyundai FC at Suwon Sports Complex in K League 1, Regular Season - 5. Kick-off is scheduled for Sunday 16 March 2025 at 05:00 UTC.
Form Guide
Suwon City FC — All Games: 1W 3D 6L from 10 K League 1 outings this season, averaging 0.60 points per game. Last five: D L L W L. They are averaging 1.20 goals per game and conceding 2.10 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. However, 2.10 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation.
In front of their own supporters this season, Suwon City FC have posted 4W 2D 4L at Suwon Sports Complex — 1.40 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.90 goals scored and 1.70 conceded per game. Their home PPG of 1.40 is noticeably stronger than their overall 0.60 — Suwon City FC are significantly better at Suwon Sports Complex than their overall form suggests.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Ulsan Hyundai FC stand at 7W 3D 0L from 10 K League 1 matches — 2.40 PPG. Last five: D W W D W. They are scoring at 1.90 per game and conceding 0.90. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not.
Ulsan Hyundai FC's form when playing away from home: 3W 4D 3L across 10 road games this term (1.30 PPG). Away from home they average 0.70 goals scored and 0.70 conceded per game. 5 away clean sheets from 10 games (50%) — they are as difficult to score against on the road as they are at home. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel. Their away PPG of 1.30 is notably below their overall 2.40 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
The form data does not support a straightforward home bias here. Ulsan Hyundai FC are 1.80 PPG ahead (2.40 vs 0.60), making them the form-guided selection despite the trip.
Head to Head
Ulsan Hyundai FC have tended to come out on top in this fixture, winning 4 of the last 6 encounters against Suwon City FC's 1 victories.
The 6 previous encounters between these sides have been high-scoring affairs — 3.8 goals per contest on average. Historical precedent backs the Over 2.5 goals market. The most recent clash, on 23 Nov 2024, ended 2–4 with Ulsan Hyundai FC winning.
The H2H provides genuine backing for the away side. Ulsan Hyundai FC have won 4 of 6 previous encounters, and at 3.8 goals per game, the goals market also points upward. The away win and Over 2.5 combination has a historical case worth noting.
Trading Patterns
Suwon City FC in-play and half-time data (76 games, 37 at home): they score before half-time in 73% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 62% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 60% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 57% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 36%.
Ulsan Hyundai FC in-play and half-time data (76 games, 37 at away): they score before half-time in 51% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 83% of the time; BTTS occurs in 49% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 43% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Suwon City FC 59% versus Ulsan Hyundai FC 53%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Suwon City FC 57% | Ulsan Hyundai FC 53%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Suwon City FC 0.87 xG and Ulsan Hyundai FC 1.19 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Suwon City FC attack 0.935 / defence 0.978 | Ulsan Hyundai FC attack 1.083 / defence 0.862. League average goals — home 1.075 / away 1.120. Data: 37 Suwon City FC games / 37 Ulsan Hyundai FC games used (Blended). A blend of current and prior-season data is applied to stabilise estimates early in the campaign.
Result probabilities: Suwon City FC 27% | Draw 30% | Ulsan Hyundai FC 43%. Fair-value odds: Suwon City FC 3.70 | Draw 3.33 | Ulsan Hyundai FC 2.33. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 30% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 34% | BTTS probability 40% | Total xG 2.05. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 66% probability — total xG of 2.05 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS probability of 40% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Ulsan Hyundai FC at 43% — marginal model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 30% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Ulsan Hyundai FC offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
Poisson projects 2.05 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 34% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction — though H2H averaging only 3.8 goals per meeting points in the other direction.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 40%. Form rates corroborate: Suwon City FC 50% | Ulsan Hyundai FC 30% BTTS from recent games.
The Poisson model is drawing on Blended data (37 games minimum) — early-season projections carry additional uncertainty. Weight the live form and odds signals accordingly.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Suwon City FC vs Ulsan Hyundai FC | Competition: K League 1, Regular Season - 5 | Venue: Suwon Sports Complex • Kick-off: Sunday 16 Mar 2025, 05:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Suwon City FC 27% | Draw 30% | Ulsan Hyundai FC 43% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 34% | BTTS 40% | xG Suwon City FC 0.87 / Ulsan Hyundai FC 1.19 • Poisson strength factors: Suwon City FC attack 0.935 / def 0.978 | Ulsan Hyundai FC attack 1.083 / def 0.862 | league avg home 1.075 / away 1.120 • Poisson stance: Ulsan Hyundai FC (43%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
0.87
Suwon City FC xG
Expected Goals
1.19
Ulsan Hyundai FC xG
40%
BTTS
61%
Over 1.5
34%
Over 2.5
15%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Suwon City FC vs Ulsan Hyundai FC kick off?
Suwon City FC vs Ulsan Hyundai FC kicked off at 05:00 on Sunday 16 March 2025 at Suwon Sports Complex.
What was the final score in Suwon City FC vs Ulsan Hyundai FC?
Suwon City FC 1 - 1 Ulsan Hyundai FC.
Where is Suwon City FC vs Ulsan Hyundai FC being played?
The match is being played at Suwon Sports Complex.
What competition is Suwon City FC vs Ulsan Hyundai FC part of?
Suwon City FC vs Ulsan Hyundai FC is a Regular Season - 5 fixture in the K League 1 (South-Korea).
Who is favourite to win Suwon City FC vs Ulsan Hyundai FC?
Our statistical model gives Suwon City FC a 27% chance of winning, Ulsan Hyundai FC a 43% chance, and a 30% chance of a draw — making Ulsan Hyundai FC the favourite.
Will both teams score in Suwon City FC vs Ulsan Hyundai FC?
Our model estimates a 40% probability that both Suwon City FC and Ulsan Hyundai FC will score (BTTS).
Will Suwon City FC vs Ulsan Hyundai FC have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 34%.
What is the head-to-head record between Suwon City FC and Ulsan Hyundai FC?
Record (6 meetings): Suwon City FC 1W | Draws 1 | Ulsan Hyundai FC 4W.
What form are Suwon City FC and Ulsan Hyundai FC in?
Suwon City FC (all comps): 1W-3D-6L in 10 | 0.60 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 2.10 | L5 D-L-L-W-L. Ulsan Hyundai FC (all comps): 7W-3D-0L in 10 | 2.40 PPG | GF 1.90 / GA 0.90 | L5 D-W-W-D-W.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
The model rates Suwon City FC's attack at 0.94x the league average against Ulsan Hyundai FC's defence at 0.86x — combine the two and it projects 0.87 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Ulsan Hyundai FC's attack versus Suwon City FC's defence, projects 1.19 expected goals for the visitors.
The sample (37/37 games) mixes this season and last, since the current campaign is still relatively young.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 14.9% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 0-0 (14.6%), 0-1 (13.5%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 43% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Ulsan Hyundai FC Win
27%
3.72
30%
3.35
43%
2.31
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 1
15.2%
Away win
Most likely
1 – 1
13.2%
Draw
0 – 0
12.8%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.87
Suwon City FC xG
Total xG
2.05
1.19
Ulsan Hyundai FC xG
3.72
27%
Home win
3.35
30%
Draw
2.31
43%
Away win
Goals Markets
61%
Over 1.5
1.64
39%
Under 1.5
2.56
34%
Over 2.5
2.94
66%
Under 2.5
1.52
15%
Over 3.5
6.67
85%
Under 3.5
1.18
6%
Over 4.5
16.67
94%
Under 4.5
1.06
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
40%
BTTS Yes
2.48
60%
BTTS No
1.67
Clean Sheet
31%
3.27
42%
2.38
Win to Nil
8%
12.19
18%
5.49
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 12.8 | 15.2 | 9.0 | 3.6 | 1.1 | 0.3 |
| 1 | 11.1 | 13.2 | 7.8 | 3.1 | 0.9 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 4.8 | 5.7 | 3.4 | 1.3 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 1.4 | 1.6 | 1.0 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 0.3 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Suwon City FC vs Ulsan Hyundai FC?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.9%.
How many goals are Suwon City FC and Ulsan Hyundai FC expected to score?
The model projects 0.87 expected goals for Suwon City FC and 1.19 for Ulsan Hyundai FC, a combined total of 2.05.
How confident is the prediction model for Suwon City FC vs Ulsan Hyundai FC?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 43%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Suwon City FC's recent record stands at 24W 16D 36L from 76 games, a 1.16 PPG return, with D-L-L-W-L in the last five.
Ulsan Hyundai FC, meanwhile, have gone 44W 16D 16L across 76 games — 1.95 PPG, with D-W-W-D-W in their last five.
The points-per-game comparison favours Ulsan Hyundai FC by 0.79 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Suwon City FC heading into this one.
Venue Form
At home specifically, Suwon City FC have managed 13W 8D 16L from 37 games — 1.27 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Ulsan Hyundai FC's away record stands at 16W 9D 12L across 37 trips, a 1.54 PPG haul. That's a step down from their 1.95 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Ulsan Hyundai FC's season.
Goals in Recent Form
Suwon City FC are averaging 1.36 goals scored and 1.78 conceded per game recently; Ulsan Hyundai FC are on 1.64 scored and 1.08 conceded.
Defensively: Ulsan Hyundai FC in 36% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 76 Results — K League 1
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Suwon City FC
Current Season
Ulsan Hyundai FC
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Suwon City FC and Ulsan Hyundai FC in coming into this match?
Suwon City FC have gone 24W 16D 36L in their last 76 games (1.16 PPG), while Ulsan Hyundai FC have gone 44W 16D 16L in their last 76 (1.95 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Suwon City FC at home or Ulsan Hyundai FC away?
Ulsan Hyundai FC's away record (1.54 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Suwon City FC at home: 1.27 PPG; Ulsan Hyundai FC away: 1.54 PPG.
Have Suwon City FC or Ulsan Hyundai FC been keeping clean sheets recently?
Suwon City FC have kept a clean sheet in 16% of their recent games, Ulsan Hyundai FC in 36%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
10 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to June 2023. Every recorded meeting has come in K League 1. They last met on 9 November 2025, roughly 10 months ago.
Streaks & Records
The biggest gap between the sides came on 6 Apr 2024, when Ulsan Hyundai FC won 3-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Suwon City FC's record when hosting Ulsan Hyundai FC specifically: 1W 2D 2L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
3
Suwon City FC
2
Draws
5
Ulsan Hyundai FC
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Suwon City FC and Ulsan Hyundai FC?
From 10 meetings on record, Suwon City FC have won 3, Ulsan Hyundai FC have won 5, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Suwon City FC and Ulsan Hyundai FC last play each other?
They last met on 9 November 2025, when Ulsan Hyundai FC 1-0 Suwon City FC.
Who has won more matches between Suwon City FC and Ulsan Hyundai FC?
Ulsan Hyundai FC have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Suwon City FC are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 73% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 27% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 14% of those situations.
Ulsan Hyundai FC see a goal before the break in 51% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 30% of the time.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Suwon City FC 60%, Ulsan Hyundai FC 49% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 57% (Suwon City FC) and 43% (Ulsan Hyundai FC).
On the defensive side: Ulsan Hyundai FC in 32%; Ulsan Hyundai FC in 30%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Suwon City FC home games / Ulsan Hyundai FC away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Suwon City FC play Ulsan Hyundai FC?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 60% of Suwon City FC's recent matches and 49% of Ulsan Hyundai FC's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Suwon City FC vs Ulsan Hyundai FC usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 57% of Suwon City FC's recent games and 43% of Ulsan Hyundai FC's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Suwon City FC and Ulsan Hyundai FC tend to score early?
Suwon City FC have had a goal before half-time in 73% of their recent matches, Ulsan Hyundai FC in 51% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Suwon City FC and Ulsan Hyundai FC share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Suwon City FC and Ulsan Hyundai FC finished level at 1-1 at Suwon Sports Complex, Regular Season - 5, in the K League 1. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Suwon City FC 0.87 xG and Ulsan Hyundai FC 1.19 xG, a combined 2.05. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Suwon City FC attack 0.94 / defence 0.98 against Ulsan Hyundai FC attack 1.08 / defence 0.86, drawn from 37/37 games (Blended).
On the result, the model split it Suwon City FC 27% | Draw 30% | Ulsan Hyundai FC 43%, with Ulsan Hyundai FC to win its most likely call at 43%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 30%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 34%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 61% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 40% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 55% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Suwon City FC 57%, Ulsan Hyundai FC 53%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 56%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Suwon City FC's trading profile (76 games, 37 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 59% of their matches — today it did.
Ulsan Hyundai FC's trading profile (76 games, 37 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 53% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 36% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
On form, Ulsan Hyundai FC arrived the stronger side — 1.95 PPG against 1.16. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss), form (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.