Suwon City FC 1-0 Jeonbuk Motors – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Suwon City FC at 52%, yet in-form Jeonbuk Motors provide a compelling counter-argument — this Suwon City FC vs Jeonbuk Motors fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Suwon Sports Complex plays host to Suwon City FC versus Jeonbuk Motors in K League 1, Regular Season - 7. Kick-off: Saturday 15 April 2023 at 11:00 UTC.
Current Form
Suwon City FC's overall K League 1 record this term: 3W 3D 4L from 10 games (1.20 PPG). Last five: D L W L L. They are averaging 1.20 goals per game and conceding 1.70 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
In front of their own supporters this season, Suwon City FC have posted 4W 3D 3L at Suwon Sports Complex — 1.50 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.70 goals scored and 1.70 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Jeonbuk Motors (all games): 7W 2D 1L across 10 K League 1 outings this term — 2.30 points per game. Last five: W L W W W. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.00 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
Jeonbuk Motors's away record: 6W 1D 3L from 10 road trips in K League 1 this season (1.90 PPG). They are averaging 1.90 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
Jeonbuk Motors arrive in superior form — a 1.10 PPG advantage (2.30 vs 1.20) that offsets much of the home-ground benefit. The away side are the form pick, with draw protection the sensible way to manage the home-field uncertainty.
The BTTS picture is exceptionally clear (using home/away splits) — Suwon City FC register both teams scoring in 70% of relevant games, Jeonbuk Motors in 70%. Both sides above 70% makes BTTS Yes one of the strongest standalone angles in this fixture.
Head-to-Head
Form and model data should carry more weight here — the historical record is too balanced to provide a directional steer. From 1 meetings: Suwon City FC 0W, Jeonbuk Motors 1W, 0D.
Scoring has been limited when these teams have met. The 1 previous contests averaged 1.0 goals, making the Under 2.5 the historically backed angle in the goals market. The most recent clash, on 10 Aug 2022, ended 0–1 with Jeonbuk Motors winning.
With a balanced win record and just 1.0 goals per game historically, the H2H points toward a tight, low-scoring contest. Under 2.5 goals has the strongest statistical grounding from the fixture history regardless of which side wins.
Trading
Suwon City FC half-time and goal-timing data (76 games, 38 at home): they score before half-time in 79% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 76% of the time; BTTS occurs in 71% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 74% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 37%.
Jeonbuk Motors half-time and goal-timing data (76 games, 38 at away): they score before half-time in 58% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 88% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 56% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 53% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Suwon City FC 60% versus Jeonbuk Motors 54%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Suwon City FC 62% | Jeonbuk Motors 46%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Suwon City FC 2.08 xG and Jeonbuk Motors 1.35 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Suwon City FC attack 1.324 / defence 1.247 | Jeonbuk Motors attack 0.963 / defence 1.029. League average goals — home 1.525 / away 1.122. Suwon City FC carry an above-average attack strength of 1.324 — their λ of 2.08 reflects genuine attacking quality above the league norm. Data: 39 Suwon City FC games / 39 Jeonbuk Motors games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Suwon City FC 52% | Draw 26% | Jeonbuk Motors 22%. Fair-value odds: Suwon City FC 1.92 | Draw 3.85 | Jeonbuk Motors 4.55. Suwon City FC hold a narrow Poisson edge at 52% — the draw (26%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 67% | BTTS probability 67% | Total xG 3.43. Over 2.5 is the model's clear signal at 67% — a total xG of 3.43 means the expected score alone exceeds the 2.5 threshold, making the Over not just likely but structurally supported by both sides' attack/defence profiles. BTTS Yes at 67% reflects that both xG figures (2.08 / 1.35) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Suwon City FC at 52% — moderate model lean. Note a divergence: in-form Jeonbuk Motors (2.30 PPG) cuts against the Poisson lean — consider the strength-adjusted model over surface-level form results. Draw probability of 26% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Suwon City FC if the outright odds are short.
Poisson projects 3.43 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 67% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by form averaging 3.3 goals per game.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 67% on Yes. Form rates corroborate: Suwon City FC 70% | Jeonbuk Motors 70% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Suwon City FC vs Jeonbuk Motors | Competition: K League 1, Regular Season - 7 | Venue: Suwon Sports Complex • Kick-off: Saturday 15 Apr 2023, 11:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Suwon City FC 52% | Draw 26% | Jeonbuk Motors 22% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 67% | BTTS 67% | xG Suwon City FC 2.08 / Jeonbuk Motors 1.35 • Poisson strength factors: Suwon City FC attack 1.324 / def 1.247 | Jeonbuk Motors attack 0.963 / def 1.029 | league avg home 1.525 / away 1.122 • Poisson stance: Suwon City FC (52%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
2.08
Suwon City FC xG
Expected Goals
1.35
Jeonbuk Motors xG
67%
BTTS
88%
Over 1.5
67%
Over 2.5
45%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Suwon City FC vs Jeonbuk Motors kick off?
Suwon City FC vs Jeonbuk Motors kicked off at 11:00 on Saturday 15 April 2023 at Suwon Sports Complex.
What was the final score in Suwon City FC vs Jeonbuk Motors?
Suwon City FC 1 - 0 Jeonbuk Motors.
Where is Suwon City FC vs Jeonbuk Motors being played?
The match is being played at Suwon Sports Complex.
What competition is Suwon City FC vs Jeonbuk Motors part of?
Suwon City FC vs Jeonbuk Motors is a Regular Season - 7 fixture in the K League 1 (South-Korea).
Who is favourite to win Suwon City FC vs Jeonbuk Motors?
Our statistical model gives Suwon City FC a 52% chance of winning, Jeonbuk Motors a 22% chance, and a 26% chance of a draw — making Suwon City FC the favourite.
Will both teams score in Suwon City FC vs Jeonbuk Motors?
Our model estimates a 67% probability that both Suwon City FC and Jeonbuk Motors will score (BTTS).
Will Suwon City FC vs Jeonbuk Motors have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 67%.
What is the head-to-head record between Suwon City FC and Jeonbuk Motors?
Record (1 meetings): Suwon City FC 0W | Draws 0 | Jeonbuk Motors 1W.
What form are Suwon City FC and Jeonbuk Motors in?
Suwon City FC (all comps): 3W-3D-4L in 10 | 1.20 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 1.70 | L5 D-L-W-L-L. Jeonbuk Motors (all comps): 7W-2D-1L in 10 | 2.30 PPG | GF 2.00 / GA 0.90 | L5 W-L-W-W-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Working from Suwon City FC's attack rating (1.32) and Jeonbuk Motors's defence rating (1.03), the model arrives at 2.08 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Jeonbuk Motors's attack (0.96x) against Suwon City FC's defence (1.25x) — and the away total comes out at 1.35.
These ratings are built from 39/39 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 10.3%. Close behind: 2-1 (9.5%), 2-0 (7.0%). Together the top three scorelines make up 27% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Suwon City FC Win
52%
1.92
26%
3.91
22%
4.47
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
2 – 1
9.5%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
9.1%
Draw
2 – 0
7.0%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
2.08
Suwon City FC xG
Total xG
3.43
1.35
Jeonbuk Motors xG
1.92
52%
Home win
3.91
26%
Draw
4.47
22%
Away win
Goals Markets
86%
Over 1.5
1.16
14%
Under 1.5
7.14
67%
Over 2.5
1.49
33%
Under 2.5
3.03
45%
Over 3.5
2.22
55%
Under 3.5
1.82
26%
Over 4.5
3.85
74%
Under 4.5
1.35
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
67%
BTTS Yes
1.49
33%
BTTS No
3.03
Clean Sheet
26%
3.85
13%
7.99
Win to Nil
14%
7.40
3%
35.71
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 3.3 | 4.4 | 3.0 | 1.3 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 6.8 | 9.1 | 6.1 | 2.8 | 0.9 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 7.0 | 9.5 | 6.4 | 2.9 | 1.0 | 0.3 |
| 3 | 4.9 | 6.6 | 4.4 | 2.0 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 2.5 | 3.4 | 2.3 | 1.0 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 1.0 | 1.4 | 1.0 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Suwon City FC vs Jeonbuk Motors?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 10.3%.
How many goals are Suwon City FC and Jeonbuk Motors expected to score?
The model projects 2.08 expected goals for Suwon City FC and 1.35 for Jeonbuk Motors, a combined total of 3.43.
How confident is the prediction model for Suwon City FC vs Jeonbuk Motors?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 52%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Suwon City FC's recent record stands at 27W 18D 31L from 76 games, a 1.30 PPG return, with D-L-W-L-L in the last five.
Jeonbuk Motors, meanwhile, have gone 43W 20D 13L across 76 games — 1.96 PPG, with W-L-W-W-W in their last five.
The points-per-game comparison favours Jeonbuk Motors by 0.66 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Suwon City FC heading into this one.
Home & Away Splits
At home specifically, Suwon City FC have managed 18W 6D 14L from 38 games — 1.58 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Jeonbuk Motors's away record stands at 22W 9D 7L across 38 trips, a 1.97 PPG haul.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Suwon City FC are averaging 1.43 goals scored and 1.58 conceded per game recently; Jeonbuk Motors are on 1.67 scored and 0.96 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Suwon City FC have seen both teams score in 61% of their recent games.
Defensively: Jeonbuk Motors in 37% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 76 Results — K League 1
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Suwon City FC
Current Season
Jeonbuk Motors
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Suwon City FC and Jeonbuk Motors in coming into this match?
Suwon City FC have gone 27W 18D 31L in their last 76 games (1.30 PPG), while Jeonbuk Motors have gone 43W 20D 13L in their last 76 (1.96 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Suwon City FC at home or Jeonbuk Motors away?
Jeonbuk Motors's away record (1.97 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Suwon City FC at home: 1.58 PPG; Jeonbuk Motors away: 1.97 PPG.
Have Suwon City FC or Jeonbuk Motors been keeping clean sheets recently?
Suwon City FC have kept a clean sheet in 21% of their recent games, Jeonbuk Motors in 37%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 10 times since August 2022 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in K League 1. They last met on 18 October 2025, roughly 10 months ago.
Records & Recent Trends
Jeonbuk Motors go into this on the back of 4 straight wins in the series — the current momentum sits squarely with them.
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Jeonbuk Motors won 0-6 on 14 Sep 2024, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Suwon City FC have gone 1W 1D 3L from 5 meetings on their own ground against Jeonbuk Motors — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
2
Suwon City FC
1
Draws
7
Jeonbuk Motors
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Suwon City FC and Jeonbuk Motors?
From 10 meetings on record, Suwon City FC have won 2, Jeonbuk Motors have won 7, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Suwon City FC and Jeonbuk Motors last play each other?
They last met on 18 October 2025, when Jeonbuk Motors 2-0 Suwon City FC.
Who has won more matches between Suwon City FC and Jeonbuk Motors?
Jeonbuk Motors have the better head-to-head record, with 7 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Suwon City FC are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 79% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 29% of the time.
Jeonbuk Motors see a goal before the break in 58% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 34% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 13% of those situations.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Suwon City FC 71%, Jeonbuk Motors 53% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 74% for Suwon City FC and 50% for Jeonbuk Motors. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 45% and 34% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Jeonbuk Motors in 40%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Suwon City FC home games / Jeonbuk Motors away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Suwon City FC play Jeonbuk Motors?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 71% of Suwon City FC's games and 53% of Jeonbuk Motors's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Suwon City FC vs Jeonbuk Motors usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 74% of Suwon City FC's matches and 50% of Jeonbuk Motors's.
Do Suwon City FC and Jeonbuk Motors tend to score early?
Suwon City FC have had a goal before half-time in 79% of their recent matches, Jeonbuk Motors in 58% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Suwon City FC edge out Jeonbuk Motors 1-0.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Suwon City FC beat Jeonbuk Motors 1-0 at Suwon Sports Complex, Regular Season - 7, in the K League 1. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Suwon City FC 2.08 xG and Jeonbuk Motors 1.35 xG, a combined 3.43. The scoreboard read 1-0 for 1 actual goal. Suwon City FC fell 1.1 short of their projected output. Jeonbuk Motors landed 1.3 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Suwon City FC attack 1.32 / defence 1.25 against Jeonbuk Motors attack 0.96 / defence 1.03, drawn from 39/39 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Suwon City FC 52% | Draw 26% | Jeonbuk Motors 22%, with Suwon City FC to win its most likely call at 52%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 67%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 88% and missed. Over 3.5 was 45% and did not. On both teams to score, the model sat at 67% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 54% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Suwon City FC 62%, Jeonbuk Motors 46%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 57%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Suwon City FC's trading profile (76 games, 38 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 60% of their matches — today it did not.
Jeonbuk Motors's trading profile (76 games, 38 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 54% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 37% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
On form, Jeonbuk Motors arrived the stronger side — 1.96 PPG against 1.30. Form was overturned, with Suwon City FC winning despite arriving in poorer recent shape. Suwon City FC (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.74 average — tighter than their form line. Jeonbuk Motors (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.74 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.