Suwon City FC 2-1 Gwangju FC – Result & Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson model rates Gwangju FC at 36%, yet other data sources diverge — this Suwon City FC vs Gwangju FC fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a K League 1 clash, Regular Season - 15 as Suwon City FC welcome Gwangju FC to Suwon Sports Complex. Kick-off is set for Tuesday 11 May 2021 at 11:30 UTC.
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Suwon City FC 1.18 xG and Gwangju FC 1.24 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Suwon City FC attack 1.033 / defence 1.455 | Gwangju FC attack 0.813 / defence 1.243. League average goals — home 0.922 / away 1.043. Gwangju FC bring a strong defensive rating of 1.243 — this is suppressing Suwon City FC's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 14 Suwon City FC games / 13 Gwangju FC games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Suwon City FC 34% | Draw 30% | Gwangju FC 36%. Fair-value odds: Suwon City FC 2.94 | Draw 3.33 | Gwangju FC 2.78. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 30% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 44% | BTTS probability 50% | Total xG 2.42. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 56% — total xG of 2.42 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 50% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Gwangju FC as the most likely outcome at 36% — marginal model lean. With a 30% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Gwangju FC offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 34% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.42 combined xG gives a 44% probability to Under 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration.
The outsider holds a 34% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
🔮 Your Prediction
Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.
💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Suwon City FC vs Gwangju FC | Competition: K League 1, Regular Season - 15 | Venue: Suwon Sports Complex • Kick-off: Tuesday 11 May 2021, 11:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Suwon City FC 34% | Draw 30% | Gwangju FC 36% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 44% | BTTS 50% | xG Suwon City FC 1.18 / Gwangju FC 1.24 • Poisson strength factors: Suwon City FC attack 1.033 / def 1.455 | Gwangju FC attack 0.813 / def 1.243 | league avg home 0.922 / away 1.043 • Poisson stance: Gwangju FC (36%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.18
Suwon City FC xG
Expected Goals
1.24
Gwangju FC xG
50%
BTTS
71%
Over 1.5
44%
Over 2.5
22%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Suwon City FC vs Gwangju FC kick off?
Suwon City FC vs Gwangju FC kicked off at 11:30 on Tuesday 11 May 2021 at Suwon Sports Complex.
What was the final score in Suwon City FC vs Gwangju FC?
Suwon City FC 2 - 1 Gwangju FC.
Where is Suwon City FC vs Gwangju FC being played?
The match is being played at Suwon Sports Complex.
What competition is Suwon City FC vs Gwangju FC part of?
Suwon City FC vs Gwangju FC is a Regular Season - 15 fixture in the K League 1 (South-Korea).
Who is favourite to win Suwon City FC vs Gwangju FC?
Our statistical model gives Suwon City FC a 34% chance of winning, Gwangju FC a 36% chance, and a 30% chance of a draw — making Gwangju FC the favourite.
Will both teams score in Suwon City FC vs Gwangju FC?
Our model estimates a 50% probability that both Suwon City FC and Gwangju FC will score (BTTS).
Will Suwon City FC vs Gwangju FC have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 44%.
What is the head-to-head record between Suwon City FC and Gwangju FC?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Suwon City FC and Gwangju FC in?
Form data is not yet available for either side.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Working from Suwon City FC's attack rating (1.03) and Gwangju FC's defence rating (1.24), the model arrives at 1.18 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Gwangju FC's attack versus Suwon City FC's defence, projects 1.24 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 14/13 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 14.7%. Close behind: 0-0 (10.6%), 0-1 (9.3%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 35% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Gwangju FC Win
34%
2.97
30%
3.32
36%
2.76
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
13.0%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
11.0%
Away win
1 – 0
10.5%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.18
Suwon City FC xG
Total xG
2.42
1.24
Gwangju FC xG
2.97
34%
Home win
3.32
30%
Draw
2.76
36%
Away win
Goals Markets
70%
Over 1.5
1.43
30%
Under 1.5
3.33
44%
Over 2.5
2.27
56%
Under 2.5
1.79
23%
Over 3.5
4.35
77%
Under 3.5
1.30
10%
Over 4.5
10.00
90%
Under 4.5
1.11
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
50%
BTTS Yes
1.98
50%
BTTS No
2.02
Clean Sheet
29%
3.44
31%
3.26
Win to Nil
10%
10.21
11%
9.02
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8.9 | 11.0 | 6.8 | 2.8 | 0.9 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 10.5 | 13.0 | 8.0 | 3.3 | 1.0 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 6.2 | 7.7 | 4.8 | 2.0 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 2.5 | 3.0 | 1.9 | 0.8 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.7 | 0.9 | 0.6 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Suwon City FC vs Gwangju FC?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.7%.
How many goals are Suwon City FC and Gwangju FC expected to score?
The model projects 1.18 expected goals for Suwon City FC and 1.24 for Gwangju FC, a combined total of 2.42.
How confident is the prediction model for Suwon City FC vs Gwangju FC?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 36%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
Last 0 Results — K League 1
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Suwon City FC
Pre-Season
Gwangju FC
Pre-Season
No results found.
No results found.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
10 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to April 2023. Every recorded meeting has come in K League 1. They last met on 30 November 2025, roughly 8 months ago.
Streaks & Records
There's a clear current trend here: Gwangju FC have taken the last 2 head-to-head results.
Suwon City FC's record when hosting Gwangju FC specifically: 2W 0D 4L from 6 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
3
Suwon City FC
1
Draws
6
Gwangju FC
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Suwon City FC and Gwangju FC?
From 10 meetings on record, Suwon City FC have won 3, Gwangju FC have won 6, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Suwon City FC and Gwangju FC last play each other?
They last met on 30 November 2025, when Suwon City FC 0-1 Gwangju FC.
Who has won more matches between Suwon City FC and Gwangju FC?
Gwangju FC have the better head-to-head record, with 6 wins from 10 meetings.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Suwon City FC home games / Gwangju FC away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
Shock result as Suwon City FC defy the odds to beat Gwangju FC 2-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Suwon City FC beat Gwangju FC 2-1 at Suwon Sports Complex, Regular Season - 15, in the K League 1. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Suwon City FC 1.18 xG and Gwangju FC 1.24 xG, a combined 2.42. The scoreboard read 2-1 for 3 actual goals. Suwon City FC beat their projection by 0.8 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Suwon City FC attack 1.03 / defence 1.46 against Gwangju FC attack 0.81 / defence 1.24, drawn from 14/13 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Suwon City FC 34% | Draw 30% | Gwangju FC 36%, with Gwangju FC to win its most likely call at 36%. The actual Suwon City FC win had been the model's second-ranked read at 34%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 44%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 71% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 50% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.