Suwon City FC 1-2 FC Anyang – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Suwon City FC at 51%, yet other data sources diverge — this Suwon City FC vs FC Anyang fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
FC Anyang make the trip to Suwon Sports Complex to face Suwon City FC in K League 1, Regular Season - 18. The match kicks off on Saturday 14 June 2025 at 11:00 UTC.
Current Form
Suwon City FC's overall K League 1 record this term: 1W 3D 6L from 10 games (0.60 PPG). Last five: D L L W L. They are averaging 1.20 goals per game and conceding 2.10 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. However, 2.10 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation.
Suwon City FC's form when playing at home: 4W 2D 4L across 10 games at Suwon Sports Complex this term (1.40 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.90 goals scored and 1.70 conceded per game. Their home PPG of 1.40 is noticeably stronger than their overall 0.60 — Suwon City FC are significantly better at Suwon Sports Complex than their overall form suggests.
H2H History
Form and model data should carry more weight here — the historical record is too balanced to provide a directional steer. From 1 meetings: Suwon City FC 0W, FC Anyang 1W, 0D.
These two sides have produced goals at a consistent rate historically, averaging 4.0 per game across 1 meetings. That scoring profile provides genuine support for the Over 2.5 angle. The most recent clash, on 19 Apr 2025, ended 1–3 with FC Anyang winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 4.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Suwon City FC 1.58 xG and FC Anyang 0.99 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Suwon City FC attack 1.141 / defence 0.895 | FC Anyang attack 0.907 / defence 1.218. League average goals — home 1.137 / away 1.220. FC Anyang bring a strong defensive rating of 1.218 — this is suppressing Suwon City FC's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 50 Suwon City FC games / 18 FC Anyang games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Suwon City FC 51% | Draw 26% | FC Anyang 23%. Fair-value odds: Suwon City FC 1.96 | Draw 3.85 | FC Anyang 4.35. Suwon City FC hold a narrow Poisson edge at 51% — the draw (26%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 47% | BTTS probability 50% | Total xG 2.57. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 47%/53% — the total xG of 2.57 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 50% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, Suwon City FC are the pick at 51% — moderate model lean. Draw probability of 26% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Suwon City FC if the outright odds are short.
The Poisson model projects 2.57 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 47% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Suwon City FC vs FC Anyang | Competition: K League 1, Regular Season - 18 | Venue: Suwon Sports Complex • Kick-off: Saturday 14 Jun 2025, 11:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Suwon City FC 51% | Draw 26% | FC Anyang 23% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 47% | BTTS 50% | xG Suwon City FC 1.58 / FC Anyang 0.99 • Poisson strength factors: Suwon City FC attack 1.141 / def 0.895 | FC Anyang attack 0.907 / def 1.218 | league avg home 1.137 / away 1.220 • Poisson stance: Suwon City FC (51%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.58
Suwon City FC xG
Expected Goals
0.99
FC Anyang xG
50%
BTTS
73%
Over 1.5
47%
Over 2.5
26%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Suwon City FC vs FC Anyang kick off?
Suwon City FC vs FC Anyang kicked off at 11:00 on Saturday 14 June 2025 at Suwon Sports Complex.
What was the final score in Suwon City FC vs FC Anyang?
Suwon City FC 1 - 2 FC Anyang.
Where is Suwon City FC vs FC Anyang being played?
The match is being played at Suwon Sports Complex.
What competition is Suwon City FC vs FC Anyang part of?
Suwon City FC vs FC Anyang is a Regular Season - 18 fixture in the K League 1 (South-Korea).
Who is favourite to win Suwon City FC vs FC Anyang?
Our statistical model gives Suwon City FC a 51% chance of winning, FC Anyang a 23% chance, and a 26% chance of a draw — making Suwon City FC the favourite.
Will both teams score in Suwon City FC vs FC Anyang?
Our model estimates a 50% probability that both Suwon City FC and FC Anyang will score (BTTS).
Will Suwon City FC vs FC Anyang have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 47%.
What is the head-to-head record between Suwon City FC and FC Anyang?
Record (1 meetings): Suwon City FC 0W | Draws 0 | FC Anyang 1W.
What form are Suwon City FC and FC Anyang in?
Suwon City FC (all comps): 1W-3D-6L in 10 | 0.60 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 2.10 | L5 D-L-L-W-L. Suwon City FC home split: 1.40 PPG from 10 | GF 1.90 / GA 1.70 | CS 3.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
The model rates Suwon City FC's attack at 1.14x the league average against FC Anyang's defence at 1.22x — combine the two and it projects 1.58 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — FC Anyang's attack (0.91x) against Suwon City FC's defence (0.90x) — and the away total comes out at 0.99.
These ratings are built from 50/18 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 13.5% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-0 (10.5%), 2-0 (9.6%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 34% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Suwon City FC Win
51%
1.97
26%
3.87
23%
4.27
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
12.1%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
12.0%
Draw
2 – 0
9.6%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.58
Suwon City FC xG
Total xG
2.57
0.99
FC Anyang xG
1.97
51%
Home win
3.87
26%
Draw
4.27
23%
Away win
Goals Markets
73%
Over 1.5
1.37
27%
Under 1.5
3.70
47%
Over 2.5
2.13
53%
Under 2.5
1.89
26%
Over 3.5
3.85
74%
Under 3.5
1.35
12%
Over 4.5
8.33
88%
Under 4.5
1.14
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
50%
BTTS Yes
1.99
50%
BTTS No
2.01
Clean Sheet
37%
2.69
21%
4.85
Win to Nil
19%
5.30
5%
20.70
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.7 | 7.6 | 3.8 | 1.2 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 12.1 | 12.0 | 5.9 | 2.0 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 9.6 | 9.5 | 4.7 | 1.5 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 5.0 | 5.0 | 2.5 | 0.8 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 2.0 | 2.0 | 1.0 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.6 | 0.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Suwon City FC vs FC Anyang?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.5%.
How many goals are Suwon City FC and FC Anyang expected to score?
The model projects 1.58 expected goals for Suwon City FC and 0.99 for FC Anyang, a combined total of 2.57.
How confident is the prediction model for Suwon City FC vs FC Anyang?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 51%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
Last 0 Results — K League 1
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Suwon City FC
Pre-Season
FC Anyang
Pre-Season
No results found.
No results found.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 4 times that we have on record, stretching back to April 2025 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 1 year. Every recorded meeting has come in K League 1. They last met on 22 November 2025, roughly 9 months ago.
Notable Numbers
There's a clear current trend here: Suwon City FC have taken the last 2 head-to-head results.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Suwon City FC have gone 1W 0D 1L from 2 meetings on their own ground against FC Anyang — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 4 Meetings
2
Suwon City FC
0
Draws
2
FC Anyang
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Suwon City FC and FC Anyang?
From 4 meetings on record, Suwon City FC have won 2, FC Anyang have won 2, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Suwon City FC and FC Anyang last play each other?
They last met on 22 November 2025, when FC Anyang 0-1 Suwon City FC.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Suwon City FC home games / FC Anyang away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
Shock result as FC Anyang defy the odds to beat Suwon City FC 1-2.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
FC Anyang beat Suwon City FC 1-2 at Suwon Sports Complex, Regular Season - 18, in the K League 1. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Suwon City FC 1.58 xG and FC Anyang 0.99 xG, a combined 2.57. The scoreboard read 1-2 for 3 actual goals. FC Anyang outscored their 0.99 projection by 1.0. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Suwon City FC attack 1.14 / defence 0.90 against FC Anyang attack 0.91 / defence 1.22, drawn from 50/18 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Suwon City FC 51% | Draw 26% | FC Anyang 23%, with Suwon City FC to win its most likely call at 51%. Instead the game produced a FC Anyang win, an outcome the model had rated at just 23% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 47%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 73% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 50% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.