Suwon Bluewings 1-2 Suwon City FC – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Suwon Bluewings at 38%, yet other data sources diverge — this Suwon Bluewings vs Suwon City FC fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A K League 1 encounter, Regular Season - 16 sees Suwon City FC travel to Suwon World Cup Stadium to take on Suwon Bluewings. The game is scheduled for Saturday 3 June 2023, 10:00 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all K League 1 games this season, Suwon Bluewings have gone 4W 3D 3L from 10 outings — a 1.50 PPG return. Last five: L W W D W. Offensively they are averaging 1.60 goals per game, with 1.20 conceded. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base.
Suwon Bluewings at Suwon World Cup Stadium this season: 3W 3D 4L from 10 home games — 1.20 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.70 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Suwon City FC — All Games: 3W 3D 4L from 10 K League 1 fixtures this season — 1.20 PPG. Last five: D L W L L. Their scoring rate of 1.20 per game is modest, conceding 1.70 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
Suwon City FC's form when playing away from home: 3W 3D 4L across 10 road games this term (1.20 PPG). Away from home they average 1.00 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game.
The form comparison is too close to call — 1.50 PPG (Suwon Bluewings) versus 1.20 (Suwon City FC). When the figures are this level, no pick can be reliably derived from recent results alone.
H2H
The previous 7 encounters between these sides heavily favour Suwon City FC, who boast 5 victories compared to 2 for Suwon Bluewings.
The 7 previous encounters between these sides have been high-scoring affairs — 3.0 goals per contest on average. Historical precedent backs the Over 2.5 goals market. The most recent clash, on 11 Mar 2023, ended 1–2 with Suwon City FC winning.
The H2H provides genuine backing for the away side. Suwon City FC have won 5 of 7 previous encounters, and at 3.0 goals per game, the goals market also points upward. The away win and Over 2.5 combination has a historical case worth noting.
In-Play Data
Suwon Bluewings trading profile (76 games, 37 at home): they score before half-time in 57% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 69% of the time; BTTS occurs in 54% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 54% of games (home games); they fail to score in 37% of games.
Suwon City FC trading profile (76 games, 37 at away): they score before half-time in 57% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 76% of the time; BTTS occurs in 51% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 51% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 37%.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Suwon Bluewings 49% versus Suwon City FC 60%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Suwon Bluewings 50% | Suwon City FC 62%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Suwon Bluewings 1.54 xG and Suwon City FC 1.53 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Suwon Bluewings attack 0.910 / defence 1.414 | Suwon City FC attack 0.849 / defence 1.361. League average goals — home 1.240 / away 1.275. Suwon City FC bring a strong defensive rating of 1.361 — this is suppressing Suwon Bluewings's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 48 Suwon Bluewings games / 48 Suwon City FC games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Suwon Bluewings 38% | Draw 24% | Suwon City FC 38%. Fair-value odds: Suwon Bluewings 2.63 | Draw 4.17 | Suwon City FC 2.63. The draw (24%) is the Poisson-preferred outcome — neither side is more likely to win than to draw, making draw-inclusive markets the most model-aligned approach.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 59% | BTTS probability 62% | Total xG 3.07. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 59% — the 3.07 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 62% reflects that both xG figures (1.54 / 1.53) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Analysis Verdict
The Poisson model's preferred outcome is the draw at 24% — neither side is more likely to win than to draw. Draw-inclusive markets are the most model-aligned approach. Home win at 38% and away win at 38% are close enough that backing either outright carries significant draw exposure.
Poisson projects 3.07 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 59% probability — strong conviction, supported by form averaging 2.8 goals per game and H2H averaging 3.0 goals per meeting.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 62%. Form rates corroborate: Suwon Bluewings 60% | Suwon City FC 50% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 38% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Suwon Bluewings vs Suwon City FC | Competition: K League 1, Regular Season - 16 | Venue: Suwon World Cup Stadium • Kick-off: Saturday 3 Jun 2023, 10:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Suwon Bluewings 38% | Draw 24% | Suwon City FC 38% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 59% | BTTS 62% | xG Suwon Bluewings 1.54 / Suwon City FC 1.53 • Poisson strength factors: Suwon Bluewings attack 0.910 / def 1.414 | Suwon City FC attack 0.849 / def 1.361 | league avg home 1.240 / away 1.275 • Poisson stance: Draw (24%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.54
Suwon Bluewings xG
Expected Goals
1.53
Suwon City FC xG
62%
BTTS
81%
Over 1.5
59%
Over 2.5
37%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Suwon Bluewings vs Suwon City FC kick off?
Suwon Bluewings vs Suwon City FC kicked off at 10:00 on Saturday 3 June 2023 at Suwon World Cup Stadium.
What was the final score in Suwon Bluewings vs Suwon City FC?
Suwon Bluewings 1 - 2 Suwon City FC.
Where is Suwon Bluewings vs Suwon City FC being played?
The match is being played at Suwon World Cup Stadium.
What competition is Suwon Bluewings vs Suwon City FC part of?
Suwon Bluewings vs Suwon City FC is a Regular Season - 16 fixture in the K League 1 (South-Korea).
Who is favourite to win Suwon Bluewings vs Suwon City FC?
Our statistical model gives Suwon Bluewings a 38% chance of winning, Suwon City FC a 38% chance, and a 24% chance of a draw, making this a very evenly-matched fixture.
Will both teams score in Suwon Bluewings vs Suwon City FC?
Our model estimates a 62% probability that both Suwon Bluewings and Suwon City FC will score (BTTS).
Will Suwon Bluewings vs Suwon City FC have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 59%.
What is the head-to-head record between Suwon Bluewings and Suwon City FC?
Record (7 meetings): Suwon Bluewings 2W | Draws 0 | Suwon City FC 5W.
What form are Suwon Bluewings and Suwon City FC in?
Suwon Bluewings (all comps): 4W-3D-3L in 10 | 1.50 PPG | GF 1.60 / GA 1.20 | L5 L-W-W-D-W. Suwon City FC (all comps): 3W-3D-4L in 10 | 1.20 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 1.70 | L5 D-L-W-L-L.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Working from Suwon Bluewings's attack rating (0.91) and Suwon City FC's defence rating (1.36), the model arrives at 1.54 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Suwon City FC's attack versus Suwon Bluewings's defence, projects 1.53 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 48/48 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 12.4%. Close behind: 2-1 (8.4%), 1-2 (8.4%). Together the top three scorelines make up 29% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Suwon Bluewings Win
38%
2.64
24%
4.09
38%
2.65
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
10.9%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 2
8.4%
Away win
2 – 1
8.4%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.54
Suwon Bluewings xG
Total xG
3.07
1.53
Suwon City FC xG
2.64
38%
Home win
4.09
24%
Draw
2.65
38%
Away win
Goals Markets
81%
Over 1.5
1.23
19%
Under 1.5
5.26
59%
Over 2.5
1.69
41%
Under 2.5
2.44
37%
Over 3.5
2.70
63%
Under 3.5
1.59
20%
Over 4.5
5.00
80%
Under 4.5
1.25
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
62%
BTTS Yes
1.62
38%
BTTS No
2.61
Clean Sheet
22%
4.62
22%
4.65
Win to Nil
8%
12.20
8%
12.35
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.7 | 7.1 | 5.5 | 2.8 | 1.1 | 0.3 |
| 1 | 7.1 | 10.9 | 8.4 | 4.3 | 1.6 | 0.5 |
| 2 | 5.5 | 8.4 | 6.4 | 3.3 | 1.3 | 0.4 |
| 3 | 2.8 | 4.3 | 3.3 | 1.7 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 1.1 | 1.7 | 1.3 | 0.6 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.5 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Suwon Bluewings vs Suwon City FC?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.4%.
How many goals are Suwon Bluewings and Suwon City FC expected to score?
The model projects 1.54 expected goals for Suwon Bluewings and 1.53 for Suwon City FC, a combined total of 3.07.
How confident is the prediction model for Suwon Bluewings vs Suwon City FC?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 38%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Across their last 76 outings, Suwon Bluewings have picked up 1.16 PPG on a 22W 22D 32L record — L-W-W-D-W across the most recent five.
Suwon City FC's form line: 27W 18D 31L from 76 games, 1.30 PPG, last five D-L-W-L-L.
Form-wise this is close to level: Suwon Bluewings on 1.16 PPG, Suwon City FC on 1.30. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
On home soil, Suwon Bluewings have posted 1.14 PPG from 37 outings (10W 12D 15L).
On the road, Suwon City FC have gone 9W 11D 17L from 37 away games — 1.03 PPG when travelling.
Goals in Recent Form
Suwon Bluewings are averaging 1.13 goals scored and 1.32 conceded per game recently; Suwon City FC are on 1.43 scored and 1.58 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Suwon City FC in 61%.
Last 76 Results — K League 1
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Suwon Bluewings
Current Season
Suwon City FC
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Suwon Bluewings and Suwon City FC in coming into this match?
Suwon Bluewings have gone 22W 22D 32L in their last 76 games (1.16 PPG), while Suwon City FC have gone 27W 18D 31L in their last 76 (1.30 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Suwon Bluewings at home or Suwon City FC away?
Suwon Bluewings's home record (1.14 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Suwon Bluewings at home: 1.14 PPG; Suwon City FC away: 1.03 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
10 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to August 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in K League 1. It has been a while since the last meeting — 12 November 2023, some 2 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Streaks & Records
The biggest gap between the sides came on 25 Aug 2021, when Suwon City FC won 0-3 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Suwon Bluewings's record when hosting Suwon City FC specifically: 2W 0D 3L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
3
Suwon Bluewings
0
Draws
7
Suwon City FC
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Suwon Bluewings and Suwon City FC?
From 10 meetings on record, Suwon Bluewings have won 3, Suwon City FC have won 7, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Suwon Bluewings and Suwon City FC last play each other?
They last met on 12 November 2023, when Suwon City FC 2-3 Suwon Bluewings.
Who has won more matches between Suwon Bluewings and Suwon City FC?
Suwon City FC have the better head-to-head record, with 7 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Suwon Bluewings see a goal before the break in 57% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 14% of those situations.
Suwon City FC see a goal before the break in 57% of their matches.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Suwon Bluewings 54%, Suwon City FC 51% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 54% (Suwon Bluewings) and 51% (Suwon City FC).
On the defensive side: Suwon Bluewings have failed to score in 32% of games; Suwon City FC in 38%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Suwon Bluewings home games / Suwon City FC away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Suwon Bluewings play Suwon City FC?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 54% of Suwon Bluewings's recent matches and 51% of Suwon City FC's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Suwon Bluewings vs Suwon City FC usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 54% of Suwon Bluewings's recent games and 51% of Suwon City FC's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Shock result as Suwon City FC defy the odds to beat Suwon Bluewings 1-2.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Suwon City FC beat Suwon Bluewings 1-2 at Suwon World Cup Stadium, Regular Season - 16, in the K League 1. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Suwon Bluewings 1.54 xG and Suwon City FC 1.53 xG, a combined 3.07. The scoreboard read 1-2 for 3 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Suwon Bluewings attack 0.91 / defence 1.41 against Suwon City FC attack 0.85 / defence 1.36, drawn from 48/48 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Suwon Bluewings 38% | Draw 24% | Suwon City FC 38%, with Suwon Bluewings to win its most likely call at 38%. The actual Suwon City FC win had been the model's second-ranked read at 38%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 59%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 81% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 62% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 56% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Suwon Bluewings 50%, Suwon City FC 62%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 55%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Suwon Bluewings's trading profile (76 games, 37 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 49% of their matches — today it did.
Suwon City FC's trading profile (76 games, 37 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 60% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Suwon Bluewings 1.16 PPG, Suwon City FC 1.30 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Suwon City FC win broke the near-deadlock. Suwon City FC (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 1.11 average — above their attacking norm.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.